After a perfect Week 11, Week 12 started with a thud on Thanksgiving with my under pick in the Eagles-Lions game and my bet on the Eagles defense bouncing back. With that Perfect was dead. We did get the Bears win in the night game so Week 12 starts 1-1 and hopefully we can follow up last weeks big week with another plus week this week.

Also below in the Pit-Sea game I added a couple of new future bets on both teams.

But yeah last week…

2015 ATS 42-23-2

Week 11- 6-0

Games 1 &2 (1-1)

Game 3: Min @ Atl -2

Bet% Min 69% Atl 31%

The Falcons are 1 and 4 in their last 5 and it seems really easy to take the Vikings winners of 4 of their last 5 her especially with them getting points. Despite the last 5 games I still have the Falcons rated slightly above the Vikings so getting them here under a FG is value.

On offense, even though the Falcons were much better to start the season they still have an advantage over the Vikings in the pass game over their last 3 games.

 

 

One reason why I think the Falcons pass game will have success against a good Vikings pass defense is that the Vikings rely on heavily on their pass rush, they average 13.2 pressure plays (S+TFL+QB Hits) per game. The Falcons offensive line has done a great job this year of limiting pressure giving up 9.7 Pressure plays per game 9^th and they are 5^th in Sack% giving up sacks on only 4.3% of plays.

The Vikings obviously have a big advantage in the run game, averaging 4.9 yards per rush on the season and 5.8 over the last 3 weeks but surprisingly the Falcons run defense has been really good this year as they are giving up only 3.6 yards per rush on the season and 3.3 over the last 3 weeks.

The Falcons have not been very good the last month and losing their lead RB is also a big blow but they are more than capable of beating a team like the Vikings especially if they can limit Adrian Peterson to just an ordinary Peterson day.

Game 4: NYG @ Wash Over 47

Bet %: Over 76% Under 24%

For most of the week I wanted to bet the Giants, especially after both the Eagles and Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving, a win this week for the Giants would essentially give them the division. There was also a major issue in Washington’s secondary on Thursday with Chris Cullivers season ending injury giving the Giants top 10 pass game an even larger advantage but as a short road favorite getting 75% of the bets the Giants seems like a dangerous play.

With the over we can still play the Giants offense which is 4^th in yards per point, and 8^th in passer rating even though they have not been healthy vs the 24^th DVOA Wash defense which is even further depleted with the injury to Culliver leaving D’Angelo Hall as their best corner which is kind of gross. The Giants are averaging 35.7 points per game over their last 3 games and Manning has 10 TDs and 2 ints over that span.

We also get the Wash home offense vs the struggling Giants defense. The last 2 weeks I have bet on Washington at home and against Washington on the road based on the dramatic home/road splits for the Wash offense.

At home Washington is averaging 6 yards per play, a passer rating of 112.8, 7.5 yards per play and Cousins has 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. Overall, Washington is averaging 27 points per game at home vs 17 on the road.

The Giants defense has been getting worse as the season goes on, through the first 5 games the Giants were 13^th in defensive DVOA and #1 vs the run giving up 3.5 yard per rush. They are currently ranked 20^th in Defensive DVOA, 19^th vs the rush and over their last 3 games things have really gone off the rails. Over their last 3 games the Giants are giving up 4.4 yards per rush,8.4 yards per pass att and an avg passer rating of 105.8.

My numbers have The Giants as a top 10 offense and Washington is a top 5 home offense vs 2 of the worst 6 or 7 defenses in the league, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams get into the 30’s.

Game 5  TB+3 @ Ind

Bet % TB 63% Ind 37% (more…)

2015 ATS: 41-22-2 

Week 11: 6-0

Game 1 Phi @ Det Under 47

The 26th and 28th DVOA offenses in this game and I expect the Eagles defense to have a big bounce back after last week’s debacle. The Lions are averaging 15.8 points per game over their last 3 and with the 30th ranked run game won’t be able to take advantage of the Eagles weakened LB group the same way TB did last week.

The Lions defense has been much better the last  couple of weeks holding both Oak and GB under 20. The Eagles offense is just devoid of big play makers and I think will need to grind out points.

Game 2 Chi+9  @ GB

Bet% Chi 36% GB 64

I was on GB last week and bet against the Bears and even though I won both bets I never felt really comfortable in either game. This just feels like too many points for the Packers to be giving and I think the fact that this is the last game on Thanksgiving is a big reason why as the books are shading this line up because they know betters will be on the favourite to either salvage a bad day early or double up on a good one.

The Packers broke their 3 game losing streak and out up 30 points but the pass game still didn’t look right. Rodgers went just 16 for 34 for 212 yards. he did pass for 2 TDs with 0 Ints but overall not a very efficient game and not exactly a sign that the offense has fully righted itself in fact it wasn’t that far off of what we have seen over the last month.

The Bears last week played the #1 defense in football the Denver Broncos and lost a tough one 18-16 where they had a 2 point conversion attempt to tie the game.6 of the last 7 Bears games have been decided by 3 points or less, they only one that wasn’t was a 37- 13 win 2 weeks vs the Rams.

John Fox has made the Bears competitive week in week out so i don’t put a lot of stock into the historical Packers-Bears record, this Bears team plays very hard and their defense has been getting better and better as the season goes on.

To cover a big number you usually need to be efficient in the passing game because that’s where points come and when you look at these 2 teams in the passing game over the last 3 weeks, the numbers may surprise

The Bears should be able to stay close and maybe even have a shot late for the upset.

 

 

It’s funny how these things go,  I struggled most of the week with the games on the week 11 card. The schedule was full of pick’ems and short spreads and I found myself going back and forth on a bunch of the games until finally settling on the picks. And then the games started and it turned into a glorious glorious Sunday where being good and lucky intertwined for a magical Day.   6 – 0!  Perfect

Week 11: 6 -0 

2015 ATS: 41-22-2 

Week 11 Results

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I found this weeks card very difficult, with so many games under a FG I found myself going back and forth on a lot of these games all week. In the end there were a few that really jumped out in terms of the numbers and those are the plays this week.

 

2015 ATS 35-22-2

Game 1: Ind +4.5 @ Atl

Bet% Ind 52 Atl 48%

This game opened at 6.5 and sharps bet it down, unlike previous weeks where I have laid off of a game because I missed out on the best number early in the week I am going to go ahead and take the Colts even at a lesser price. The reason is that the Falcons have shown over the last 5 games that they are capable of losing to anyone.

In the Falcons last 5 games they have played Was, NO, TB, Ten and SF and despite playing 5 of the worst teams in the league the Falcons were 2-3 straight up and 0-5 ATS. The biggest surprise of the Falcons season when they started 5-0 was their run game, through the first 5 games they were 7^th in the league averaging 4.4 yards per rush att. The run game allowed them to be balanced and very efficient on offense as they ranked 6^th in offensive DVOA. They are now averaging 4.1 yards per rush att and are ranked 16 in offensive DVOA despite not playing any top 10 defenses in the last 5 games and in favt playing 2 of the bottom 3 defenses SF and NO.

Even though Andrew Luck is out I don’t downgrade the Colts at QB this week for 2 reasons. Firstly the Andrew luck that has played this season has not been a major positive to the team, whether it was due to injury or something else, his passer rating of 74.9 is 30^th in the NFL. In 2 starts Hasselback has a passer rating of 95 and with 2 fll weeks to prepare I expect Hasselback to have a very good game in Atlanta.

The Colts still are favored to win the division and in their last 5 games they have faced much better competition than the Falcons playing the Patriots, Panthers and Broncos and putting up the same 2-3 record.

Game 2. Den -1 @ Chi

Bet% Den 45% Chi 55%

This spread is kind of amazing 3 weeks ago I can’t imagine this spread would have been less then Den -6 but after 2 straight losses by Den and an impressive win last week by the Bears at St.Louis and the Broncos starting Brock Osweiler  this line is basically a pick.

Its hard to see how a change in QB can hurt the Broncos, they started the year 7-0 soley because of their defense.  Despite 2 straight losses, they are still the #1 ranked defense by DVOA, they are equally good vs the pass (#1 in yards per pass att, #3 in avg passer rating agst) as they are vs the run 2^nd in opp yards per pass attempt.  Demarcus Ware will miss the game but Aqib Talib should be back.

With Peyton Manning at QB the offense was dead last in DVOA and last in passer rating, its almost impossible for Osweiller to not be an improvement on that. Osweiler should be more mobile and able to run a truer version of Kubaik’s offense. The Bears defense is 28^th in defensive pressure plays (S+TFL+QB Hits) so Osweiler should be able to have some time to make plays.

The Bears were great last week in St Louis and Jay Cutler has had a very good season overall, 12^th in passer rating 95.3 but the Bears have some lingering injuries on offense and I expect the Broncos to be able to get a lot of pressure and create some big plays. The Bears 27^th ranked defense should provide the Broncos offense to get going especially on the ground where the Bears are giving up 4.6 yards per rush. (more…)

The NFL betting market this week saw some very quick moves and getting the best of number really requires having your prep work done early in the week, its amazing how quickly numbers go off the board. The Panthers opened as 6 point favorites and honestly the only way I thought that line could move was towards 7 but by Friday it was basically 4 everywhere. Getting the best of the number really requires some a combination of early prep work and fortune-telling.

2015 ATS 32-21-2

LW 3-2

Game 1: Car @ Ten +4.5

Bet% Car 76% Ten 24%

*Reverse Line Move- This line opened at 6 but was bet down to 4.5-4 even though 75%of bets are on the Panthers

There isn’t a lot statistically to think that the Titans are capable of playing the Panthers tough. The Panthers are certainly for real, now the #4 team in overall DVOA and #2 in defense while the Titans rank 24^th.

The only way the Titans can stay close and have a chance at winning is if the Panthers have a let down game here and I think situationally there is a case you can make that this is a spot that happens. Below is a look at the last 4 Panthers games.

2 of the games were in prime time where the Panthers rarely get to play, the Seattle game was a major playoff revenge spot and the Packers game was basically for #1 team in the NFC. The Indy game is the one with the least on the line and while they won straight up, they had to go to OT and they didn’t cover against a team that came in 3-5.

This week, the Panthers play a losing team, on the road after 3 straight home games, outside the conference, it is literally the least important game they have played since week 1.

As for the Titans, the defense has been very good this year ranking 9^th in DVOA, and importantly for this game giving up 4.1 yards per rush (14^th) but in the last 3 games only giving up 3 yards per rush.

The offense has been very hit and miss under Mariotta and this is the concern here. He has been great in 2 games (TB,NO), pretty good in 2 others (Cle,Ind) and terrible in 2 (Buf,Mia). The 2 games he was terrible in were against easily the best defenses he has faced  and neither is as good as Carolina, so that is a major concern here but if the Ten defense can keep Car close the hope is Mariotta can make enough plays to stay within a score and maybe pull out the win SU.

 Game 2  Chi @ Stl –6.5

 Bet% Chi 49% Stl 51%

Chicago is coming off of a very big comeback win on MNF vs the Chargers and now playing their second straight road game in St. Louis. The Bears are 29^th in DVOA, 19^th on offense and 28^th on defense. The Rams are 14^th in DVOA, 28^th on offense and 5^th on defense.

There is no question the advantage the Rams defense has on the Bears offense, the Bears are averaging on 3.5 yards per rush in their last 3 games (3.9) on the season and Matt Forte will be out for his game, the Rams are 8^th vs the run giving up 3.8 so they should be able to make the Bears 1 dimensional. Being 1 dimensional vs the Rams is a dangerous proposition, the Rams are 2^nd in sack percentage (8.82% of plays) in total pressures per game at 16 per game, if the Bears cannot run that pressure will get to Jay Cutler.

The Rams pass offense has struggled all year and in games where they fall behind or can’t get the run game going and have to pass they are not likely to get back into games. In this game I do not expect the Rams to have any issues getting their run game going. The Rams are averaging 4.9 yards per rush on the season (8^th) and face the bears 2th run defense as they have given up 4.6 yards per rush, in the last 3 weeks its been even worse at 5 yards per rush att.

The Rams have made a habit of wearing teams down through the game and the fact that this is the Bears 2nd straight road game and the 4^th road game in their last 5 I expect that to continue here. The Bears offense that came alive in the 2^nd half last week took advantage of a severely depleted Chargers defense especially after Jason Verette got hurt in the 1^st half should have a much more difficult time vs the Rams. (more…)

Last week was a real tough one, even though I was able to win the 2 prime time games and salvage the week from full disaster that Sunday morning 0-3-1 stuck with me all week. As a result of the tough week, I had a real tough time with this week’s card, one of the issues I had last week was just too many games on the card in trying to avoid that I ended up second guessing myself a lot this week and ended up missing out on some good numbers.

2015 ATS: 29-19-2

LW 3-4-1

Game 1 Mia @ Buf Over 43.5

Bet% Over 59%Under 41%

My numbers had this game at a total of somewhere around 48 so even though the line move is towards the under I feel good about this game being a high scoring game. Buffalo came into this season expected to be one of the premiere defenses in the league but have given up 25 points per game and in the last 2 games gave up 34 to both the Bengals and the Jaguars. Both these teams have been over teams in their recent history, Buffalo has had 4 of their last 6 go over and 7 of the last Miami games have gone over.

Injuries are one of the reasons I like this over, for the Bills they have not had Tyrod Taylor and Shady McCoy healthy at the same time yet and while they have some injuries on the receiving corps this is probably the most healthy and complete offense they have had all year. Miami on the other hand lost their most important defensive player last week, the Dolphins have 13 sacks this season, Cameron Wake, who is now out for the season had 7 of them. No other Dolphin has more than 2.

On a short week playing against the Patriots, Miami’s run offense had a terrible game with 15 yards on 13 carries but on the season they are averaging 5 yards per rush attempt which is 2^nd in the league and as the Bengals and jags showed the last 2 weeks, the Bills can be run on.

Game 2: Stl +2 @ Min

Bet% Stl 51% Min 49%

These teams are very similar on both offense and defense, they both have offenses led by their run games with below average passing offenses. On defense, both these teams are led by their defensive lines and are among the best pressure defenses in the league.

While both these teams excel at the same things the Rams do almost all those things a little better than the Vikings. Neither of these teams are great on offense, they rank 27^th and 28^th in offensive DVOA due to passing games that have struggled all year but both teams have top run games led by 2 of the best RBs in the league. The Rams have the #1 run game averaging 5.0 yards per attempt while the Vikings are 9^th averaging 4.5 yards per attempt, the Rams have the better overall numbers even though Todd Gurley has only played the last 4 games.

On defense these are 2 of the best scoring defenses in the league with both teams giving up around 17 points per game but St. Louis grades out much better in most categories. The Rams are 4^th in defensive DVOA wile Vikings are 24^th, Rams are 6^th in rush defense giving up 3.7 yards per attempt, while the Vikings give up 4.4 which is 25^th. Both these teams get a ton of pressure on opposing offenses but agin the Rams grade higher, The Rams are 2^nd in the league in defensive pressure plays per game averaging 16.6 (Sacks, QB Hits, TFL) while the Vikings are 14^th 12.9 pressure plays. The biggest mismatch in the game looks to be the Rams D vs the Vikings Oline which is 27^th in pressure plays given up.
Game 3: Stl @ Min Under 40.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

This is the lowest total on the board and with good reason as these are the 2 most under teams in the league, both teams have had 5 games each go under so far.

We have 2 defences in the game that should have major advantages over the offenses especially the Rams D vs the Vikings offense.  The #4 ranked DVOA defense of the Rams faces the #27 offense of the Vikings and as mentioned above the biggest mismatch may appear to be the Rams defensive line which is 2^nd in pressures vs the Vikings offensive line which is 27^th in pressures allowed.

On the flip side, while the Rams have the best running game in the league, they are 27^th in passer rating, they face the second highest percentage of 3^rd downs and they are last in 3^rd down conversions. The Vikings defense is 13^th in yards per play against and 4^th in yards per point against, while the Rams should be able to run against them it probably won’t be enough to put up a lot of points. (more…)

The London games make betting very difficult because the travel adds factors that are impossible for us to handicap, teams rarely make regular trips and we have such small sample sizes that there isn’t a lot we can extrapolate from the previous games. I generally stay away from the London games for that reason but am going to take a shot this week and hope that the game plays as closely to regular game as possible.

2015 ATS: 26-15-1

LW 5-2

Game 1: Mia +8.5 @ NE

Week 8 – Thursday Night Football

Game2 Det @ KC -3 (In London)

Bet% Det 56% KC 44%

There are definitely some factors in this game that are impossible to predict. First and foremost, the game is being played in London and there is no way to guess how the travel will impact either of these teams. Secondly, the Lions fired their OC and and offensive line coach and we can’t really know if or how those changes will impact the Lions offense.

Here’s what we do know, the Lions are 29^th in DVOA while the Chiefs are 15^th, The lions are -61 in point differential this year while KC is -8, The Lions are 32^nd in opp passer rating, 32^nd in opp yards per pass attempt. The Lions offense is also a problem, they have had no success running the ball (3.5 yards per rush) which allows teams focus soley on their pass offense.

What’s interesting about his matchup is that while there is no more vanilla QB that Alex Smith, its’s the Chiefs who are averaging more yards per pass attempt than the Lions, 6.9 to 6.5 and their big play differential of -2 is much better than the Lions -21. The Chiefs were able to run the ball successfully last week for the first time since losing Jamal Charles and if that should continue against the Lions who are giving up 4.1 yards per rush.

Game 3 NYG +3 @ NO

Bet% NYG43% NO 57%

I continue to back the Giants week after week and it seems like I fade the Saints every week. The Saints are coming off of a big win last vs the Cots where Luck threw 2 interceptions in the first half that led to the Saints building a 20-0 lead that they would hold on to.

I don’t think the Saints are good team and I do think the Giants are. With the saints favored by 3 what this says is that on a neutral these teams are even. I disagree. The Giants are 12^th in DVOA while the Saints are 20^th and the major difference is the Saints defense. The Saints are 27^th in avg opp passer rating (102.2) 30^th in opp pass yards per att (7.9) and 29^th in opp yards per rush att (4.9). The reason the Saints have seemingly turned their season around with wins the least 2 weeks isn’t because their defense has greatly improved but rather because both Atlanta and Indy turned the ball over 3 times each and the Saints were +5 in turnovers in the 2 games. Last week the Colts outgained the Saints 6.2 to 5.4 in yards per play, in week 6 the Falcons outgained them 5.9 to 5.3.

The Giants too have benefited from turnovers to win games as they are currently+9 on the season and the turnovers have certainly contributed to their defense looking better than they should but they still rank 18-20 in most defensive metrics like opp pass yards per att (20^th) and opp yards per rush (18). The Giants are getting healthier on offense, ODB practised fully for the first time in weeks and they may have also found their running game last week with Darkwa.

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