Week 12 Picks

After a perfect Week 11, Week 12 started with a thud on Thanksgiving with my under pick in the Eagles-Lions game and my bet on the Eagles defense bouncing back. With that Perfect was dead. We did get the Bears win in the night game so Week 12 starts 1-1 and hopefully we can follow up last weeks big week with another plus week this week.

Also below in the Pit-Sea game I added a couple of new future bets on both teams.

But yeah last week…

2015 ATS 42-23-2

Week 11- 6-0

Games 1 &2 (1-1)

Game 3: Min @ Atl -2

Bet% Min 69% Atl 31%

The Falcons are 1 and 4 in their last 5 and it seems really easy to take the Vikings winners of 4 of their last 5 her especially with them getting points. Despite the last 5 games I still have the Falcons rated slightly above the Vikings so getting them here under a FG is value.

ATL Min.jpg

On offense, even though the Falcons were much better to start the season they still have an advantage over the Vikings in the pass game over their last 3 games.

 

 

One reason why I think the Falcons pass game will have success against a good Vikings pass defense is that the Vikings rely on heavily on their pass rush, they average 13.2 pressure plays (S+TFL+QB Hits) per game. The Falcons offensive line has done a great job this year of limiting pressure giving up 9.7 Pressure plays per game 9th and they are 5th in Sack% giving up sacks on only 4.3% of plays.

The Vikings obviously have a big advantage in the run game, averaging 4.9 yards per rush on the season and 5.8 over the last 3 weeks but surprisingly the Falcons run defense has been really good this year as they are giving up only 3.6 yards per rush on the season and 3.3 over the last 3 weeks.

The Falcons have not been very good the last month and losing their lead RB is also a big blow but they are more than capable of beating a team like the Vikings especially if they can limit Adrian Peterson to just an ordinary Peterson day.

Game 4: NYG @ Wash Over 47

Bet %: Over 76% Under 24%

For most of the week I wanted to bet the Giants, especially after both the Eagles and Cowboys lost on Thanksgiving, a win this week for the Giants would essentially give them the division. There was also a major issue in Washington’s secondary on Thursday with Chris Cullivers season ending injury giving the Giants top 10 pass game an even larger advantage but as a short road favorite getting 75% of the bets the Giants seems like a dangerous play.

With the over we can still play the Giants offense which is 4th in yards per point, and 8th in passer rating even though they have not been healthy vs the 24th DVOA Wash defense which is even further depleted with the injury to Culliver leaving D’Angelo Hall as their best corner which is kind of gross. The Giants are averaging 35.7 points per game over their last 3 games and Manning has 10 TDs and 2 ints over that span.

We also get the Wash home offense vs the struggling Giants defense. The last 2 weeks I have bet on Washington at home and against Washington on the road based on the dramatic home/road splits for the Wash offense.

At home Washington is averaging 6 yards per play, a passer rating of 112.8, 7.5 yards per play and Cousins has 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. Overall, Washington is averaging 27 points per game at home vs 17 on the road.

The Giants defense has been getting worse as the season goes on, through the first 5 games the Giants were 13th in defensive DVOA and #1 vs the run giving up 3.5 yard per rush. They are currently ranked 20th in Defensive DVOA, 19th vs the rush and over their last 3 games things have really gone off the rails. Over their last 3 games the Giants are giving up 4.4 yards per rush,8.4 yards per pass att and an avg passer rating of 105.8.

My numbers have The Giants as a top 10 offense and Washington is a top 5 home offense vs 2 of the worst 6 or 7 defenses in the league, I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams get into the 30’s.

Game 5  TB+3 @ Ind

Bet % TB 63% Ind 37%

TB has been racing up the charts on most metrics including DVOA. In Week 7 TB ranked 29th in DVOA, now after winning 3 of their last 4, they have moved up to 15th overall and 13th in weighted DVOA. This is an improving young team ad while there is some concern of a 2nd straight road game I don’t think it will impact them that much here.

The Colts were extremely lucky to win last week’s game, they couldn’t get anything going on offense most of the game and all seemed lost until Mat Ryan threw an interception for TD late. Matt Hasselback averaged 5.9 yards per pass att and had 2 Ints to 2 TDs that was off of a bye. As the oldest QB in the league I think we will see him struggle as the games go on and TB has been pretty good at getting pressure this year with 12.6 pressure plays a game (15th). Hasselback is going to have to carry the Colts offense because their run game has not been good averaging 3.9 yards per rush this season but only 3.2 over their last 3. The Bucs have one of the best rush defenses in the league giving up 3.7 yards per rush this season which is 5th best.

Early in the year the Bucs were giving games away as Winston really struggled with interceptions. In his first 4 games, Winston passed for 6 TDs and 7 interceptions in his last 6 games he has just 2 interceptions to 9 TDs, 5 of those coming last week in Philadelphia.

In this game I think the wrong team is favored, the spread indicates these teams are basically equal and the Colts get 3 points for home but I see the Bucs as at least 2 points better than this version of Indy and getting a full FG is huge value but I see TB winning straight up so definitely take advantage of the ML as well.

Game 6: Pit +4 @ Sea

Bet% Pit 65% Sea 35%

*This game opened at +4 and remained there most of the week, dropping to 3.5 on Friday, while I got 4, I would still play at 3.5.

I think these 2 teams may be the 2 most dangerous teams in the league, in fact after looking at the numbers of these teams for this game I added future bets for both teams

Steelers: Win the AFC championship 10-1, Win Super bowl 24-1

Seahawks: Win NFC Championship 8.5-1, Win Super bowl 18-1

With the recent injuries that the Patriots have had to Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, I believe the Steelers have the best offense in the NFL even without Leveon Bell. The Steelers are 4th in offensive DVOA even though Rothlisberger has missed basically 5 games and Martavius Bryant missed 4 games, coming off of a bye week I expect the Steelers offense to be in peak form this week. If there is a weakness that can be exploited in the Seattle defense its Cary Williams and very few teams have a #2 WR as dangerous as Bryant to take advantage of him. 2 weeks ago Arizona had a huge game vs Seattle and Michael Floyd was a key reason why with 7 catches for 113 yards and 2 TDs.

Seattle is 6th in DVOA (Pittsburgh is 7th) and have led in each of their 5 losses in the 4th quarter including twice at home. Seahawks have been putting up elite numbers across the board except in 2 crucial offensive areas, the redzone and protecting Russel Wilson from pressure. Seattle has moved the ball well most of the year averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense (8th), 7.4 yards per pass att (6th) and 4.8 yards per rush (3rd) but they are 31st in RZ atts per game 2.3 and 31st in RZ TD% converting only 39|% of trips into TDs. So what is killing their drives? Sacks and negative plays, Seattle is last in sack percentage giving up sacks 10.69% of pass plays and last in pressure plays surrendered giving up 16 S +TFL+QB Hits per game.

Pittsburgh defense has been better than expected ranking 14th in DVOA and 10th vs the rush giving 3.8 yards per rush which will be crucial vs the Seahawks. The Steelers have also been a premier pressure team averaging 14 pressure plays a game, 7th highest, and should be able to take advantage of the struggling Seattle OLine.

In the end these are 2 of the best teams in the league and 2 teams I think have a legitimate shot to win it all bet getting a FG plus when we have seen Seattle lose close games to good teams is too much to pass up. Also playing an elite offense and having the red zone issues Seattle has makes a straight up win for Pittsburgh a legitimate possibility.

Game 7: 6 pt Tease Den +9/ NE @ Den under 49

Both Denver and the under were bet hard, the game opened NE -4.5 and was bet all the way down to 3 and as of late Sat night some 2.5s started popping up. The total opened at 46 and was bet down to 43. I agree with both moves but since I missed all the good numbers this game becomes a natural to use in a teaser as we take the Broncos through both 3 and 7 and the under through 45 and 47.

The Patriots continue to roll week in week out and are 10-0 but at what point is it too much to ask of Brady and Gronk. The Patriots lost Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman for the season in back to back weeks and then last week also lost Edelman’s replacement Danny Amendola for this week’s game. This means that this week facing the best defense in the NFL, the Patriots will be starting 2 of Brandon Lafell, Keshawn Martin and Chris Harper and even Harper has been battling injury and may not be 100%. This is exactly what we mean by “cluster injuries”.

The Broncos #1 defense is equally good vs the pass #2 opp passer rating, #1 in Opp yards per pass attempt as they are vs the run #2 in opp yards per rush att. The Broncos defense in the last 3 weeks has not been quite as good as they have over the full season but the with the Patriots injury situation and the return of some injured players the last couple of weeks like Aqib Talib I expect the Broncos to be able to handle the NE offense.

As for the 30th ranked DVOA offense of the Broncos they did look a little better last week with Osweiler at QB then they had with Manning and his last place passer rating. Denver averaged 5.7 yards per play last week 6.8 yards per pass and 4.7 per rush, all up from their season averages but it’s far too small a sample to draw anything conclusive from, though their does seem to be some hope.

The Broncos should have every opportunity to win this game at home as I expect both defenses to play well and the game to be decided by a TD or less in a low scoring affair.

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