After a season full of tough week after tough week, this was me on Sunday night.
Game 1: Hou @ Det Under 51.5
Bet% Over 60% Under 40%
Houston is very much an over team but some of the high scores they have had because they fell behind big and had to chase the game but that shouldn’t be the case here vs the Lions. They are also extremely one dimensional right now as Duke Johnson hasn’t been able to give them much so this should be a spot the Lions can gameplan pretty easily.
In the end this under is all about the Lions and what this offense looks like without Kenny Golliday. Last week the Lions were shutout by a very bad defense in Carolina, they scored 27 vs Washington but other than that game they only scored 20 vs the Vikings and 21 vs the Colts. Add to that the thumb injury Stafford is dealing with and the fact that Deandre Swift is also questionable and I think Detroit will do everything they can to slow this game down and keep it from becoming a shoot out.
Game 2: LAC @ Buf over 52.5
This is a bet that the Chargers game plan we saw last week is the one they continue with. Last week the Chargers passed on 70% of downs in neutral-situation plays and 68% of early downs. Anthony Lynn has been talking up Justin Herbert and it would make sense for him to tie himself to Herbert playing well as a way of making the case to stay on as head coach next week. The Chargers ran 78 plays last week which is exactly what we want to see for an over, they also gave up 28 points to the NY Jets and Joe Flacco.
The Bills pass at the 8th highest rate in neutral situation plays and after struggling on offense for a few weeks the last 2 games the Bills have scored 30 and 44. Coming off of a bye and that incredible loss on the hail mary to the Cards, this is a game the Bills are going to need and I don’t think they can count on the defense so I do see them looking to win with the passing game. The only thing that could keep this game under is weather but as of now that doesn’t seem to be an issue.
Game 3: Cle @ Jac Over 49
The average game total for an NFL game in 2020 is 49 so when you get a game open at that number it is a easy question of is this game likely to be higher scoring than the average game or lower. I think this number opened here because the Browns have played 3 straight low scoring games with totals of 22, 17 and 39 but all 3 of those games in Cleveland were severely impacted by weather. The passing games in those 3 games were severely limited by wind and rain and as a result we saw extremely low scores. In the 4 games played before that weather aided homestand, the Browns gave up 24,38, 32, 38 and once again this week they will be without there best player Myles Garret. On offense getting Nick Chubb back was big for them last week and this offense should have a much better time passing vs the Jags 30th ranked pass defense.
The Jags offensive situation is murkier, Mike Glennon is starting at QB, I don’t think it’s possible to downgrade from Luton. Last week vs the Steelers the Jags only scored 3 points but that was almost entirely because of how bad Luton, previous to that the Jags scored 20 vs the Packers, 25 vs the Texans and 29 vs the Chargers. The Jags will be missing Chark jr but I still think they are going to be able to score in this game against a defense that was giving up points to everyone before the rain and wind gods intervened.
Game 4: 2 team 6pt Teaser NE +8.5 & GB -8.5
Both of these lines are moving in my favor giving this teaser more value.
Arizona is flying across country to play the Patriots and earlier in the week Murray was limited in practice due to the shoulder injury he suffered last week. The Cardinals are a team that doesn’t really blow teams out, the nature of their games, the fact the defense doesn’t get a lot of pressure and that they are a run dominant offense makes for a lot of close games. In their last 4 games, the Cards went 2-2 vs Seattle, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle and the games were decided by 3,3,2 and 7. This is also a sandwich spot for Arizona, last week they played Seattle in a huge divsion game and next week they play the Rams. The Patriots seem to have their run game going the last couple of weeks and as a result the offense has gotten better. I don;t feel comfortable taking them with such a short line but think they can keep this game within the TD.
The Bears-Packers game has moved from 8.5 to 9.5 due to the QB news luckily I was able to get in before that move. The Packers should be able to win this game by a FG but if NE covers the first part and this line goes to 10 I will take the Bears and try to hit the middle and win both sides. If it stays here then the decision will be harder.
Game 5: LV @ Atl +3.5 (-113)
This is the contrarian play of the week, the Raiders played one of the most impressive games of the week last week on national tv while the Falcons played a terrible game vs Taysom Hill and the Saints. Every TV expert and every average bettor is going to be on the Raiders this week because this line looks too short for a team on the rise that just played 2 great games vs the Chiefs vs a team heading the wrong way.
For the Falcons, even though this season has not gone the way they would have wanted, previous to their bye they had won 3 of 4 games and the one loss was that crazy finish vs the Lions where Gurley scored when he should have gone down and the Lions scored with no time on the clock.
This just feels like the exact spot for an upset and I can certainly see the Falcons win this game straight up
Game 6: 2 Team Teaser Mia -1 @ NYJ & SF @ LAR -.5
I didn’t love the Miami side early in the week with Tua at QB but now with Fitzpatrick listed as the starter, I really like taking them in this teaser. Miami was a much more productive offense with Fitzpatrick at QB than they have been the last 3 weeks under Tua. I also like the fact that Miami lost last weekend in a game they were favored on the road. They had won 2 or 3 games they probably didn’t deserve and were due for a game that went the other way, The fact that we get Miami off of that game plus the QB change, I don’t see them losing this game to the Jets.
The Rams are coming off of one of their best wins of the year on MNF but also a short week as a result while the 49ers are off of a bye. The 49ers beat the Rams in the first game that seemed like an all in spot and while they ay stick around in this game I don’t see how they put up enough points to win against the #7 defense by DVOA this time. Losing to the 49ers twice in this division would be malpractice so I feel confident McVay doesn’t get beat twice by an inferior Shanahan team this year.