Month: November 2020

Week 12 2020

LW: 7-1

2020- 33-35-1

After a season full of tough week after tough week, this was me on Sunday night.

Happy Black Girl GIF

Thanksgiving Thursday

Game 1: Hou @ Det Under 51.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

Houston is very much an over team but some of the high scores they have had because they fell behind big and had to chase the game but that shouldn’t be the case here vs the Lions. They are also extremely one dimensional right now as Duke Johnson hasn’t been able to give them much so this should be a spot the Lions can gameplan pretty easily.

In the end this under is all about the Lions and what this offense looks like without Kenny Golliday. Last week the Lions were shutout by a very bad defense in Carolina, they scored 27 vs Washington but other than that game they only scored 20 vs the Vikings and 21 vs the Colts. Add to that the thumb injury Stafford is dealing with and the fact that Deandre Swift is also questionable and I think Detroit will do everything they can to slow this game down and keep it from becoming a shoot out.

Game 2: LAC @ Buf over 52.5

This is a bet that the Chargers game plan we saw last week is the one they continue with. Last week the Chargers passed on 70% of downs in neutral-situation plays and 68% of early downs. Anthony Lynn has been talking up Justin Herbert and it would make sense for him to tie himself to Herbert playing well as a way of making the case to stay on as head coach next week. The Chargers ran 78 plays last week which is exactly what we want to see for an over, they also gave up 28 points to the NY Jets and Joe Flacco.

The Bills pass at the 8th highest rate in neutral situation plays and after struggling on offense for a few weeks the last 2 games the Bills have scored 30 and 44. Coming off of a bye and that incredible loss on the hail mary to the Cards, this is a game the Bills are going to need and I don’t think they can count on the defense so I do see them looking to win with the passing game. The only thing that could keep this game under is weather but as of now that doesn’t seem to be an issue.

Game 3: Cle @ Jac Over 49

The average game total for an NFL game in 2020 is 49 so when you get a game open at that number it is a easy question of is this game likely to be higher scoring than the average game or lower. I think this number opened here because the Browns have played 3 straight low scoring games with totals of 22, 17 and 39 but all 3 of those games in Cleveland were severely impacted by weather. The passing games in those 3 games were severely limited by wind and rain and as a result we saw extremely low scores. In the 4 games played before that weather aided homestand, the Browns gave up 24,38, 32, 38 and once again this week they will be without there best player Myles Garret. On offense getting Nick Chubb back was big for them last week and this offense should have a much better time passing vs the Jags 30th ranked pass defense.

The Jags offensive situation is murkier, Mike Glennon is starting at QB, I don’t think it’s possible to downgrade from Luton. Last week vs the Steelers the Jags only scored 3 points but that was almost entirely because of how bad Luton, previous to that the Jags scored 20 vs the Packers, 25 vs the Texans and 29 vs the Chargers. The Jags will be missing Chark jr but I still think they are going to be able to score in this game against a defense that was giving up points to everyone before the rain and wind gods intervened.

Game 4: 2 team 6pt Teaser NE +8.5 & GB -8.5

Both of these lines are moving in my favor giving this teaser more value.

Arizona is flying across country to play the Patriots and earlier in the week Murray was limited in practice due to the shoulder injury he suffered last week. The Cardinals are a team that doesn’t really blow teams out, the nature of their games, the fact the defense doesn’t get a lot of pressure and that they are a run dominant offense makes for a lot of close games. In their last 4 games, the Cards went 2-2 vs Seattle, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle and the games were decided by 3,3,2 and 7. This is also a sandwich spot for Arizona, last week they played Seattle in a huge divsion game and next week they play the Rams. The Patriots seem to have their run game going the last couple of weeks and as a result the offense has gotten better. I don;t feel comfortable taking them with such a short line but think they can keep this game within the TD.

The Bears-Packers game has moved from 8.5 to 9.5 due to the QB news luckily I was able to get in before that move. The Packers should be able to win this game by a FG but if NE covers the first part and this line goes to 10 I will take the Bears and try to hit the middle and win both sides. If it stays here then the decision will be harder.

Game 5: LV @ Atl +3.5 (-113)

This is the contrarian play of the week, the Raiders played one of the most impressive games of the week last week on national tv while the Falcons played a terrible game vs Taysom Hill and the Saints. Every TV expert and every average bettor is going to be on the Raiders this week because this line looks too short for a team on the rise that just played 2 great games vs the Chiefs vs a team heading the wrong way.

For the Falcons, even though this season has not gone the way they would have wanted, previous to their bye they had won 3 of 4 games and the one loss was that crazy finish vs the Lions where Gurley scored when he should have gone down and the Lions scored with no time on the clock.

This just feels like the exact spot for an upset and I can certainly see the Falcons win this game straight up

Game 6: 2 Team Teaser Mia -1 @ NYJ & SF @ LAR -.5

I didn’t love the Miami side early in the week with Tua at QB but now with Fitzpatrick listed as the starter, I really like taking them in this teaser. Miami was a much more productive offense with Fitzpatrick at QB than they have been the last 3 weeks under Tua. I also like the fact that Miami lost last weekend in a game they were favored on the road. They had won 2 or 3 games they probably didn’t deserve and were due for a game that went the other way, The fact that we get Miami off of that game plus the QB change, I don’t see them losing this game to the Jets.

The Rams are coming off of one of their best wins of the year on MNF but also a short week as a result while the 49ers are off of a bye. The 49ers beat the Rams in the first game that seemed like an all in spot and while they ay stick around in this game I don’t see how they put up enough points to win against the #7 defense by DVOA this time. Losing to the 49ers twice in this division would be malpractice so I feel confident McVay doesn’t get beat twice by an inferior Shanahan team this year.

Week 11 Picks

LW: 2-5-1

2020- 26-34-1

TNF: Ari @ Sea -3

Last week I had planned to bet the Rams all week and ended up taking it off the card right at the end because that is just how this 2020 season has gone for me but the reason I liked them was that Seattle had just been criss crossing all over the country. This week they are back home after playing in LA, coming off of 3 straight losses, this is exactly the type of spot you want to back Russell Wilson.

Arizona on the other hand is coming off of a miracle win against the Bills after losing in Miami the week previous. These 2 teams played 2 weeks ago and the Seahawks were 3.5 pt favs in Arizona, now they are smaller favs at home. These 2 teams are pretty closely matched up but I think we are getting Seattle at their lowest spot we have had all year, home teams traditionally have done well at home and I think we see that again this week.

Game 2: 2 Team Teaser: GB +8.5 @ Ind & NE @ Hou + 8.5

The Packers are coming off of a very tough performance vs the Jags last week but weather played a major factor in that game and as a result I think this line is bigger than it should be. In this game the Packers will be bringing their #2 offense indoors on the turf and they will be fully healthy with all 3 WRs healthy, Aaron Jones back and David Bakhtiari back to 100%. The COlts are 4th in defensive DVOA and held up well vs the #3 Titans but the Titans offense has been on a slide and has not been anywhere near as explosive as GB. I think Packers have good shot of winning this game outright but taking them through the 3 and 7 is too good to pass up.

Adding Houston to this teaser is just taking advantage of a bad number. The Patriots should not be favored, last week they won straight up as 7 point dogs vs the Ravens in a game that had extreme weather and basically everything went wrong for Baltimore. As awful as this season has been for Houston they still have the best unit in this game with their offense and should not be 2 point dogs. Again getting chance to take them through the 3 and 7 too good to pass up.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser: Phi +8.5 @ Cle & Pit -4.5 @ Jax

It’s hard to put money on the Eagles after last week but it is clear that money has come in on the Eagles because this line has moved from 3.5 to 2.5, moving through the key number of 3. Last week I liked Eagles partly because their offensive line was finally getting healthy and then at kickoff it was announced that both expected starters at guard were out. This week the Eagles should have that offensive line we expected and generally this team has bounced back after really bad games under Doug Pederson. We saw that in the SF game in week 3 and I can see it again here.

I will likely be taking the Steelers side as this line should be closer to 13 than 10. The Jags were in it last week vs the Packers but got lucky with the weather and really the score didn’t reflect the play. The Packers outgained the Jags 395 to 260, GB averaged 9 yards per pass and if it wasn’t for a big special teams TD the Packers would have won by double digits even in those terrible conditions. The Steelers are better than the Packers and the conditions should be much better than last week, I don’t see how the Jags keep this close. While not as valuable teasing through 7 and 3, teasing through 10 and 7.

Game 4: Mia @ Den Under 46

Miami is averaging 30 ppg over the last 3 since Tua took over at QB and I think that is why this total is as high it is. Those scores have been greatly enhanced by 2 defensive TDs and a score set up by a blocked punt last week deep in Chargers territory. while I think the Dolphins offense is being overrated their defense deserves all of the credit they are getting. Now up to 13th in DVOA the Miami defense has been full marks for their recent winning streak and I expect them to be dominant this week vs the Bronco’s last placed offense. The Broncos after the 4 interception game by Drew Lock is probably coming in with a much more conservative game plan so I can see a slowed down pace and lot’s of running.

Game 5: Dal +7 @ Min

Bet% 48% 52%

I am following the money a bit here, this game opened up at 9 and even though tickets have been split basically 50/50 this game has dropped all the way to 7. Dallas is coming off of a bye and getting Andy Daulton back so this seems like a very good spot for Dallas to be competitive. Dallas played their best game since the Prescott injury before the bye vs the Steelers and the hope here is that coming out of the bye they again come with a game plan that takes some risks and the defense improves at least to the point that it is not just bleeding big plays.

The Vikings have been better the last 3 weeks with all 3 games in the division, maybe playing their first game out of the NFC North in a month creates a bit of a down spot for them. While it’s easy to feel like they have turned the corner it is important to remember that just 3 weeks ago they were blown out by Atlanta 40-23.

Game 6: KC -7 @ LV

Bet% KC 59% LV 41%

This is the chalk play of the week. There is the obvious narratives that will come up with Andy Reid after a bye and the revenge factor after the Raiders gave KC their first and only loss of the year. I like KC because this Raiders defense which is in the bottom 3rd has been once again impacted by Covid protocols and have not been able to practice. Maybe you can get away with that situation against some teams but I don’t see how they hold up against KC. Oakland also has some big injuries on defense, they will be without Cleland ferrell who is one of 4 defensive lineman that are questionable this week.

Game 7 & 8: Pit -6.5 1H and Pit -10 full game @ Jac

I made the case above in the teaser of why I think the Jags game last week was more one sided than the score indicated and as a result this line is shorter than it should be. But to take it a step further, Jake Luton has played 2 games the first against Houston who is a bottom 5 defense and last week vs the packers who are league average but they were missing starters in the secondary. The Steelers defense is a major step up for the rookie back up QB and I don’t see how he survives this game without a couple of turnovers. I see the Steelers getting their work done early in this game with Thanksgiving and the Ravens on deck on Thursday so I am betting them both first half and full game.

Week 10 2020

LW : 4-3

2020- 24-29-1

Game 1: Hou @ Cle -3

Bet% Hou 45% Cle 55%

This was the first bet I made this week as I was pretty sure that it wasn’t going to stay at 3 though I still like the Browns even at the current 4s out there. The Texans have won 2 games this year and both are against the Jags. In their defense Houston did start with a very difficult schedule starting with Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens and also playing the Packers. The issue I think is that one they weren’t really in any of those games outside of the Steelers and now with the position they are in which is outside the playoff run and under an interm coach who has no chance of being a head coach again this seems like a lost season.

Matchup wise this is a great spot for the Browns, coming off of a bye the Browns get Nick Chubb back and now face the #28 DVOA run defense in Houston. This is expected to be a cold and rainy game so it plays perfectly into the Browns big matchup advantage with their #10 run offense.

Game 2: Phi -4 @ NYG

Bet% Phi 53% NYG 47%

I missed this at 3.5 because I thought there was a good chance that Giants money would come in and drop it to 3 but that never happened and money has continued to come in on Philly, a move I obviously agree with. These teams played 2 weeks ago in a game where the Eagles were opened around this same number and got bet up and the Giants covered and were in position to win straight up, so why take Philly here?

If we go back to that TNF game, Philly was coming off a brutal 3 game stretch where they flew across country to play SF, then on the road in Pittsburgh and back home to play the Ravens before playing Giants in that TNF game. This week we get Philly off of a bye and the really big news is that they are getting healthy for the first time in forever. I think you can make the case that this is the healthiest the Eagles offense has been since week 1 2019. At the skill positions the Eagles will have Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey back giving them the best 4 WR (Fulgham, Reagor, Ward, Alshon) Wentz has had all year and really 2 years. Sanders is back and at TE Goddart should be 100% after returning week 8. The Eagles will also be getting there LG Isaac Seumalo meaning the Eagles will have 4/5s of their starting lineup they would have had coming into the year.

Both from a schedule and injury/health scenerio this is a great spot for Eagles and it really comes down to Carson Wentz. Wentz has been a bottom 5 QB this year and if you believe that continues then the Giants are an easy take here. I see Wentz regressing back to a top 12 QB and benefiting from a much better cast around him should be a major help. I like the Eagles by a TD here.

Game 3: Was +3.5 (-115) @ Det

Bet% Was 44% Det 56%

Washington has been playing really tough the last few weeks but because they games were against fellow NFC East teams and nobody really considers them tough competition. Washington has been incredible on defense this year, they #5 in DVOA overall and #1 vs the pass which is why I think they have a very good shot at winning this game straight up. because I see the Lions pass game really struggling here.

The Lions have just been a much different offense in the games Kenny Golliday misses, last week against poor pass defense in Minnesota, Stafford had miserable day with 211 pass yards and 2 INTs. This Washington pass defense should be able to get pressure, the Lions offensive line is 21st in ASR while Washington is #1 in adjust sack rate.

Game 6: TB -5.5 @ Car

Bet% TB 62% Car 48%

Last week TB was the #1 DVOA team and went on to play one of the single worst games any team has played all season. I think had TB played anywhere near what was expected this line would have been at least 7 and if they won it would have been TD plus. The Panthers have been much better than expected this year, they are currently 16th in DVOA and at 5-4 ATS are a very popular underdog.

This just feels like a get right spot for the Bucs, Brady is coming off of one of his worst games of his career gets the 26th ranked Panthers defense but maybe most importantly the Panthers are a team that does not generate pressure, they are 26th in adjusted sack rate at just 4.5%. While its a great schedule spot for the Bucs it feels the opposite for the Panthers as they are coming off a great performance in KC last week, a game they were in the whole way and led most of the way and now have to get right back and play an embarrassed Bucs team.

Game 5: Cin +7 @ Pit

Bet% Cin 53% Pit 47%

Definitely missed the best of this number as it opened at 9 then went off the board most of the week and came back at 7.5 which I also didn’t get in at. It just seems like the Steelers play to the level of their competition and I don’t think the near loss last week to the Cowboys is going to shake them out of it the way a straight up loss woud have..

Roethlisberger will play this week after not being able to practice due to Covid. We have seen teams have varying results in this situation, some have handled better than others but not having your QB available at practice does seem like reasonable disadvantage.

The Bengals have been great on this spot as underdogs, despit only winning 2 games this year they are 6-2 ATS. In the end this is just about the number and following the money. This line has been dropping from the open and even went through the 7 at some of the sharper books so getting the 7 here is worth taking and hoping for another lackluster effort from the Steelers against a clearly inferior team.

Game 6: SF +10 @ NO

Bet% SF 47% NO 53%

This is the flip side of the bet above where I am taking the Bucs off of one of the worst losses of the season, here I am fading the Saints off of one of the single best performances of the year. There are no stats or numbers that are going to help make the case to take the 49ers here, the Saints are the #1 team by DVOA and look every bit of the Superbowl contender they were tagged at to start the year. The 49ers are actually better by DVOA then you would think at #15 which is why this line feels too much to me. Even with all the injuries SF is not the Jets or Jags they still have a lot of talent on the team and one of the best coaches in the league.

In the end I am just fading the Saints here, coming off of that dominant win on national TV vs the Bucs last week, this feels like a natural down spot and it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers are in this game the whole way.

Game 7: Den @ Oak Over 51

Bet% Over 62% Under 48%

Las Vegas is best over team in the league, they are 6-1-1 to the over, they are in the top 10 in scoring 27.2 PPG and in the bottom 10 in scoring defense giving up 28.2 PPG. Denver has the reputation of being a defensive team but this year while they are top 10 in DVOA they are also giving up 27.1 points per game and as a result have been an underrated over team with 5 overs to 3 unders.

I think there are a couple of scenarios that lead this game to the over, the first is a back and forth game where both offenses have success and we see a game with both teams in the 30’s. The other is a game scenario that we have seen the last few weeks for the Bronco’s which is they fall behind early and make a furious comeback late and as a result push the game over that way.

Game 8: 2 team 6 pt teaser LAC +1.5 @ Mia & Min @ Chi +8.5

The Chargers continue week after week to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory including last week when I was on them against the Raiders and they had 2 shots to win the game at the end and dropped both in excruciating fashion. This is probably the spot they win straight up but I am not strong enough to lose with them 2 weeks in a row so I love taking them through the 3 and 7 here. Miami is 2-0 with Tua at QB but have benefited from defensive TDs boh of those games. If we dig into the boxscores, last week Miami was outgained by 130 yards, the week before vs the Rams they were outgained by an amazing 325 yards. Not exactly a recipe for sustained success.

I like the Bears on MNF but again taking them through the 3 and 7 is really attractive here. The Vikings have had 2 straight wins behind Dalvin Cook dominating but the Bears are one of the leagues best run defenses at #7 in DVOA and I can see Nick Foles have success against this Vikings defense.

Week 9 Picks 2020

LW 4-2

2020- 20-26-1

Game 1: 2 Team Teaser GB -1.5 @ SF & Hou -1 @ Jac

Didn’t get a chance to post this before the TNF game but used GB in a teaser with Houston. The 49ers were so ravaged with injuries and with GB coming off of a bad loss this seemed like a spot where it was a good enough bet to expect them to just win. Money did come in on SF and Shanahan has owed the Packers but there was just too many pieces missing from that offense.

The Texans are in a similar position as the Packers. On the road playing a team missing their starting QB. The Jags have looked every part of being a bottom 3 team after that surprise week 1 win. The Texans are too far gone to make a run for the playoffs but a lot of their struggles this year are due to an impossibly difficult schedule. The Texans have played the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Packers who rank #2, #3, #4 and #8 in DVOA. In their first meeting with the Jags, Houston won 30-14 I don;t see them losing here to a QB named Luton.

Game 2: Chi +6.5 (Waiting to see if a 7 shows up) @ Ten

Bet% Chi 50% Ten 50%

The Titans are a team that I think continues to be over rated by the market, I think based mostly on last years performance and wins early this year over poor competition. The Titans are 4-2, their first 3 wins early came against the Bronco’s, Vikings and Jags and were by a combined 6 points. Then after an impressive win vs the Bills, they won a miracle OT game vs the Texans and then lost to the Steelers and Bengals. That is not the type of team that should be favored by a TD against a Bears team that as flawed as they are on offense is still a top 10 defense.

The Bears are probably as equally undeserving of their 5-3 record as the Titans are of their 5-2 record but the Bears have not been getting priced as an top tier team by oddsmakers the way Tennessee has. The Bears have not been great on offense but I do see this game being a bit of a get right spot for Nick Foles.

Game 3: 2 team Teaser NYG +8.5 @ Was & Mia +10.5 @ Ari

The Giants have played tough the last few weeks and easily could have won in Philly and on MNF vs TB. Washington has been equally competitive the last few weeks and have been getting especially good performances from their defense. To e this game should have just been a pick, I don’t see how you can make a case that either team is 2 or 3 points better but at +2.5 it makes the Giants the perfect teaser candidate as we can take them through the 3 and 7 and then add to it that this is one of the lowest totals on the board and it is a no brainer play.

Miami is actually rated higher in DVOA than the Cardinals although the 21st rated offense is due to Ryan Fitzpatrick and until we see Tua play at a simlar level we have to downgrade them on offense. Where we don’t have to downgrade is on defense, Miami is ranked 11th overall though 32 vs the run. The Cardinals have struggled against good defenses this year and I think we get a better game out of Tua so taking his game through the 7 and 10 makes the Dolphins very attractive in this teaser.

Game 4: Car +10.5 @ KC

Bet% Car 42% KC 68%

It’s never fun betting against the Chiefs but this feels like a bit of a down spot of the schedule for the Chiefs and the Panthers are good enough to stick around in this game if given the opportunity. The Chiefs have been playing easy, meaningless games for about a month now, they are coming off of an easy win vs the Jets and the week previous they covered double digits vs the Broncos but got a KO return TD and an interception return TD to give them the ATS win. Next week the Chiefs are going into a bye, we know Andy Reid is great out of byes and they are playing the Raiders who beat them a few weeks ago. I don’t think the Chiefs are looking ahead to the Raiders but I can see them looking past this game to a well deserved bye week.

The Panthers are going to get Christian McCaffrey back and while I think they have proven over the last 6 weeks that it is better for an offense to be more diverse and built around the pass than a star RB, in this game McCaffrey is coming back just in time. The Chiefs have become a very good pass defense, 7th in DVOA but against the pass they are 28th which sets up perfect for the Panthers and the return of McCaffrey.

Game 5: Oak @ LAC over 52

Bet% Over 70% Under 30%

Game 6: Oak @ LAC pk

Bet% Oak 57% LAC 43%

It’s not often I have a bet on the side and total of one game but that is the case here with Chargers and Raiders. First on the over, I think both offenses are going to have good matchups and be able to score in this game. Las Vegas is 13th in DVOA on offense and while it looks like Josh Jacobs will be out this week, they are getting back a couple of their starting linemen and also getting WR Bryan Edwards back. I like not having the option to just hand the ball off to Jacobs here, it forces the Raiders to play up in pace and because I see the Chargers scoring and getting out early, the Raiders are going to have to score to keep up.

The Chargers have become one of the fastest pace teams with Herbert at QB, they are 5th fastest in neutral game situations since Justin Herbert took over and against this #31 DVOA defense I see no reason they shouldn’t have a lot of success in this game.

As for the Chargers side, I really think we are getting a bargain because of the way the game ended last week in Denver. For the 3rd time in 4 weeks the Chargers blew a 2 score game and ended up losing straight up , obviously blowing ig leads is less than ideal but I think there is more to take out of the fact that they keep getting out to those leads rather than the fact that they have let teams get back. I think in this case we are getting the Chargers low and selling the Raiders high after their win in Cleveland.

Game 7: NO @ TB -4

Bet% NO 51% TB 49%

The SNF game the marquee game of the week and I do believe it offers some nice value on the favorite which is not usually the case. In some ways, this game reminds me of the 49ers- Seattle game last week, in that the square side which is the fav is the right side because it is a couple of points cheap. The Saints have not been the same Saints team we are used to this year because their defense is no where near the level it has been at in previous years. The Saints are giving up 28 points per game this year and haven’t played an especially difficult schedule with games vs the Bears, Panthers and Chargers in the last month.

The Bucs offense should get a boost from the addition of Antonio Brown to an offense that is already 5th in DVOA. The Bucs are the #1 DVOA team overall and the only team in the top 6 on offense and defense ( #1 DVOA) and I think are being undervalued in the market. The Saints may get Michael Thomas back in this game but I don’t think you can count on him to be a difference maker in this game as he was only a limited participant in practice this week