For Week 16 I really didn’t get a lot of time to break the games early and wanted to keep the number of tickets down for that reason and the fact that late in the season we get a lot of factors impacting games beyond the numbers. that being said we still have a decent sized card, with a losing play on TNF, I went heavy on dogs this week because 1) I think their is some real value and 2), last week was one of the worst of the year for the books and usually we see a big comeback the next week. Hopefully a couple of late Christmas presents with some winners.

Week 15: 4-0

Season ATS: 54-33-2

Game 1 : SD @ Oak -5.5

Game 2: Cle +12 @ KC

Bet% Cle 27% KC 73%

KC is a double digit favourite again and this is a team that offensively doesn’t fit the profile of a team that week after week can cover numbers of this size. The Browns played in Seattle a couple of weeks ago and faced a number this big and had an opportunity to cover. the Chiefs will be looking ahead to the playoffs so I don’t expect them to keep the pedal to the metal for 60 minutes.

Game 3: Car @ Atl +7

Bet% Car 70% Atl 30%

The Falcons have been a disaster since their 6-0 start but they did get a win last week so at least there’s that. This really a bet because 1 I think the line is just too inflated here with the full TD, it essentially makes that Panthers 10 points better even without Jonathon Stewart. Secondly as they get closer and closer to 16-0 I thinkthe pressure ramps up and there is also the balance of making sure your team is healthy for the playoffs. I cashed with the Giants vs Panthers last week and will try again with Atlanta. Also sprinkle a little on the ML.

Game 4: Stl +12 @ Sea

Bet% Stl 38% Sea 62%

I think Seattle is probably the best team in the league but again id their motivation to play all out here for 60 minutes or will tere be some balancing to ensure the team is in the best shape possible for the playoffs. Doug Baldwin has been one of the hottest receivers in the league but was banged up all week, Im not sure we see him used as usual.

The Rams always play Seattle tough, and this line is basically the same line we saw with the Browns 2 weeks ago, the Rams are much better than Cleveland and beat Seattle straight up already this year. Ill take the double digit points.

Game 5: Chi @ TB -3

Bet% Chi 42% TB 58%

This line has these teams as even but my rankings have TB 8 slots better so this is just a value play. Neither team has had any play-off aspirations so we don’t have let down/spoiler/must win narratives in  this one. TB is a young team on the come up, this is a good spot to play well at home against an inferior team.

Game 6: Cin @ Den -3 (-120)

Bet% Cin 29% Den 71%

Last week AJ Mccaron was able to win his first career start vs the 49ers and  overall he looked pretty good in the process passing for 7 yards per pass and a passer rating of 115.6. What is interesting is that most of his good play was in the first half when the Bengals scored 21 of their 24 points. Overall the offense was not very efficient averaging just 4 yards per play and the run game was held to 1.9 yards per attempt. All this was against the 25th best defense in SF.

This week Mccaron faces the #1 defense in the NFL, if the Broncos focus on the run game the same as the 49ers I do not think Mccaron will be able to carry the offense vs Denver’s pass defense the way he did last week.

With KC winning again Denver needs to win this game to stay ahead and ensure their spot in the playoffs, I expect the defense to carry them and maybe creating some turnovers which should allow them to cover the FG+

 

For the 2nd time in 2015 I was able to hit on a perfect week and though it was not as epic as the 7-0 Week 11 +4 units is still a pretty great weekend. A perfect Weekend.

Week 15: 4-0

2015 ATS: 54-33-2

Week 15 results

What Went Right:

• The Steelers Offense- While the 1st half certainly didn’t go the way I anticipated with the Broncos putting up 27 1st half points, overall I felt like the Steelers offense would find away to score enough points and that is how this game ended up going. The Steelers scored 14 in the 4th Q to get the win and cover despite having no success in the run game.
• Houston wins with #4 QB: The Colts managed just 190 yards living up to the bottom 5 rating I had them at. the Texans won this game despite having to use Matt Cassell at QB after TJ Yates suffered a season ending injury. The Colts minus Andrew Luck are just that bad
• Giants vs the best, Once again the NY Giants played a premier NFL team tough scoring 21 in the 4th Q to tie the game late and forcing the Panthers to win on a FG at the finish. Giants were able to win ATS vs both the Patriots and Panthers this year.

What Went Wrong

• Not a Goddamn thing. It was Perfect

It’s a busy week for everyone, I still have to get the Week 15 Review post up but Week 15 was a great one as we went 4-0. Review will be up soon but before that, I have a side for the Thursday Night Football game this week.

Week 15: 4-0

2015 ATS 54-33-2

Week 16- TNF

SD @ Oak -5.5

Bet% SD 36% Oak 64%

Betting the last few weeks of the season has as much to do with handicapping the motivation of the teams as much as it does anything else. Here on TNF I can’t see any reason for San Diego to show up and give a big effort where as Oakland is a young team trying to end the season on a high note with a home game in prime time.

On Sunday, the Chargers won an emotional game at home, widely believed to be the last home game to be played in San Diego for the chargers as they are expected to move for next year. In a disappointing season, it was one last chance for the Charger players to give their home fans a final positive moment to remember and you could see they were very motivated to do that. I helped to play the Dolphins who have quit weeks ago. Now coming back just 4 days later on the road, its hard to see how they get back to play at that level again with absolutely nothing on the line fort them.

By DVOA Oak is 12th overall while the Chargers are 25th, so we are getting the better team, at home, with an edge in motivation and at a good price.

I am out of town this weekend and short on time so the write ups will be short and sweet, which is probably what they should be anyways. Had a nice bounce back week in Week 14, lets keep it going.

Week 14: 5-2

2015 ATS: 50-33-2

Game 1: Hou +2 @ Ind

Bet% Hou 56% Ind 44%

Andrew Luck practiced but will be out again this week which leaves the same Colts team we have seen over the last month which my numbers have as one of the worst in the league. My weighted numbers have Indy as the #32 offense and the #30 defense, the Texans getting blown out by the Patriots gives us a little line value here but the Patriots do that to a lot of teams and I expect the Texans to bounce back, especially their defense and dominate this struggling Colts offense.

Game 2: CAR @ NYG +5

Bet% CAR 66% NYG 34%

It feels like the sharps bet against the Panthers every week looking for their first loss and week after week the Panthers keep winning and covering. I was hoping to get this game at 6 but have had to settle on the no wheresville 5. There are no numbers under a TD that make the Giants a good bet here, the Panthers are in everyone’s top 3 and the Giants are at best mediocre middle of the pack.

There are couple of reasons why I feel like this could be the week, first we know the giants have done well in this spot before, vs the Patriots numerous times and also vs the 13-0 broncos a couple of years ago, for whatever reason, Coughlin and Eli have some of their best moments vs these undefeated top rated teams.

The second reason is that for the first time this season we see the Panthers have some guys off for injuries, including Jonathon Stewart who probably would have played had this game been a must win. There is a subtle move here by the staff to think of the playoffs and not the streak and I think that has a way of filtering to the players. If the Giants win, they are going to need turnovers much like the Saints got 2 weeks ago vs Carolina because there is no way their defense can get stops constantly through the game but think we may see a sloppy game here.

Game : GB @ Oak Over 47

Bet% Over  Under

This is a straight follow play, which is not something I normally do. I listen to Gill Alexander’s NFL megapod every week and have for years, I believe it is the best betting podcast that is out. Normally I will only use plays that also match my numbers but this week both of the regular cappers Marco & VR, liked this over as their best bet and even though my numbers come a little lower I will follow.

While my weighted numbers have this game lower, I do think the matchup should produce points on both sides as the Raiders should be able to run vs GB which opens up their entire offense. The Packers haven’t had much success in their run game anyways so the Raiders run defense which has been very good shouldn’t impact their game plan and Rodgers should be able to have success vs the raiders secondary.

GAME 4 Den @ Pit -6.5
Bet% Den 50% Pit%

The leagues best defense at the leagues best offense. This is really as much about the spot as it is anything. The Steelers have to have this game, the Jets won yesterday and Steelers need this game to keep playoff hopes alive.
The Broncos offense has gone quiet with Osweiller at the helm and regardless of how good the defense is, they are going to need points in tissue game because the Steelers will score. I think we may see some mistakes from Denver on offense that help Steelers get a plus TD win.

 

After struggling the last 2 weeks, we were able to get over the hump this week and have a big winning week and get back over 60% on the season. The Early numbers I got didn’t really make a big difference as both the Steelers and Raiders won outright but still I felt a lot better during those games, especially early with the tickets I had. Most of the wins were pretty comfortable, a lot of direct hits.

Week 14:   5-2

2015 ATS: 50-33-2

Week 14 results

What Went Right

• Offenses I Trust: The Steelers, Giants and Jags are all offenses I feel comfortable betting on that they can outscore their problems vs equal level of competition.

For the Steelers, I believe they are the #1 offense in the NFL and really believe against almost anyone they are going to have the opportunity to outscore their issues on defense.  This week in a game they had to have vs a team that wasn’t in the same desperate state , getting 3 points was more than enough to put me on the side of the Steelers. Pittsburgh was obviously helped by the Andy Daulton injury and we don’t know how that game would have turned out had he played the whole game but I still think the Steelers offense would have done enough to win.

The Giants are a little like the Steelers but at the mid level. While I think the Steelers can outscore their problems vs the top teams, for the Giants I generally feel good that they can outscore their issues vs the mid level teams, the teams around .500. That’s what we saw this week vs the Dolphins, Miami was able to move the ball and put up points against the struggling NYG defense but in the end just couldn’t sustain the same level of offensive efficiency the Giants could.

At the lowest levels of the league, I see the Jaguars in the same was as the teams above, when they play teams in the bottom 3^rd of the league I generally think they can outscore their issues. This week they had an awful 1^st half and till managed 380 yards of offense while scoring 42 in the 2^nd half.

• Khalil Mack- 7 tackles, 5 Sacks, 7 QB Hits. Good Lord

Beyond Mack going all Derrick Thomas, the other thing that really stood out in the Oak-Den game is just how much trouble the Broncs are having scoring right now. In the last 2 games the Broncos have scored 1 TD on offense and if you take out the Patriots game, the Broncos are averaging 15.3 points per game in the other 3 games Osweiller has started. The reason I say take the Patriots game out is that the weather/field conditions created some large scoring plays that haven’t been there in the other games. The Broncos are a stone cold under team as currently constructed.

What Went Wrong

• For the second straight week (Chicago last week), I bet on a a .500ish team that hasn’t been a big favorite all year or for a number of years and they not only didn’t cover the number but lost straight up. This is something I will look at more in the off season but teams who go from being consistently dogs or short favs to a big fav (TD or close) how do they react. The Bucs were 6 point favorites at the close, they had only been a favorite of 3 points (in the opener) and had only been favored 2 other games both times by 1.

 

• I was Wrong on my Eagles. Sort Of. The Eagles Bills game actually went much he same way I thought it would, the Bills out gained the Eagles, Sammy Watkins made some very big plays but the Eagles won this game because they won the turnover battle. The Bills had a game changing fumble on a punt return after getting a 3 and out from Philly deep in their end that felt like a 10 point swing.

 

This was one of the weeks that when I looked at the opening lines a number of games jumped off the page right away and because they were around some key numbers I bet them early to lock in the value. As the week went on I ended up keeping all of the bets except one, the Lions. the more I looked at it the more the Lions game scared me, I know the rams offense has been awful but they are a different team at home and its hard for me to join the 75% of bets on the shot road favourite. Other than the Lions I kept all the bets made early in the week and ended up locking in some great numbers and getting great value.

2015 ATS: 45-31-2

LW: 3-3

Game 1: Buf +1 @ Phi

Bet%: Buf 65% Phi 35%

2 weeks ago there were a lot of talk about the Eagles moving on from Chip Kelly at seasons end on the heels of 2 of the worst losses the eagles have had in a decade plus but after a huge week over the New England Patriots last week that talk has mostly gone away. For me when I look at previous results and factor it in to my handicapping I always try to focus on what is repeatable, so lets look at what the Eagles did last week.

When you look at those numbers on offense they don’t exactly spark a great deal of confidence or give any inclination that the Eagles were able to figure out what has gone wrong on offense this season. The Eagles scored 35 points on just 248 yards of offense because they returned a blocked punt for a TD, returned a punt for a TD and then returned an interception for a 99 yard TD. 3 return TDs in a month is pretty lucky, in 1 game? I’m not even sure lucky qualifies. The Eagles are the same team on offense they have been all season, they are 29^th in yards per play (5.1),25^th in passer rating (82.9) and 28^th in yards per pass (6.3). Their numbers over the last 3 games are all very much in line.

The Bills have season has gone completely opposite of what I thought it would and probably most people did, as they have been carried by their offense this season while their defense has struggled. The Bills are 7^th in DVOA offense but 26^th in DVOA offense, the offensive ranking is actually a little understated here when you consider that their starting QB, RB and  #1 WR have all missed considerable time but are all healthy now.

The Bills Passing game should have a lot of success in this game, opposing QBs have an ag passer rating of 91.1 vs the Eagles this season, 112.7 in the last 3 games. Rookie CB Eric Rowe will be making his 2^nd start of the season for Eagles, he couldn’t get on th field through the first 10 weeks. Eagles have struggled with top WRs all year and I expect Sammy Watkins to have a big game. I don’t expect the Eagles offense to be able to keep up even against a struggling Bills defense.

Game 2: Pit +3 @ Cin

Bet%: Pit 47% Cin 53%

This was one of the games I bet early in the week as it was clear this was going to drop under the key number of which it has. I think its still worth betting at +2.5 because I do think the Steelers will win this game and points probably won’t matter but obviously there is a lot value I getting the full 3.

I’m not sure there is a lot to pick between these 2 teams, I have them currently as the top 2 offenses in the NFL and while the Bengals defense has been better this season than the Steelers, the fact that the Steelers need this game much more than Bengals and they played them so tough in the opener has me on the Steelers side.

The Steelers have the best offense in football averaging 6.5 yards per play which includes games started by Mike Vick and Landry Jones, over their last 3 games, all started by Ben, they are averaging 7.4 yards per play and 9.8 yards per pass but really the Bengals have been so good this season that you are never going to make a case against them strictly by numbers. This is really about the spot, this is a crucial game for the Steelers’ playoff hopes while the Bengals have the #1 seed and division championship well within their grasp. Getting the number 1 offense in the league plus points in a game they have to win feels like the right play and the line move off of 3 seems to agree with that.

Game 3: NE @ Hou Under 45

Bet% Over 55% Under 45%

New England and Houston have been 2 of the most impressive defenses over the last month and I think we are getting a little value based on the Patriots scores the last 2 weeks. After the injuries to Edelman and then Gronkowski the Patriots seemed ripe for some unders but both the Denver and Eagles games went over but neither for reasons we can expect to continue. In the Denver game, there were extreme weather conditions with snow and while often we think of low scoring games in bad weather, snow and slippery conditions often create big plays that normally wouldn’t be there in normal conditions. The Denver game featured a 63 yard pass TD, 19 yard rushing TD, and a 48 yard rushing TD in OT. The game featured only 21 points through 3 quarters but the late flurry and OT put it over.

Then last week vs the Eagles, the Pats held the Eagles offense to 250 total yards of offense, under 5 yards per pass and just 14 point but the Eagles got 3 TDs from defense and special teams and the game went way over. Edelman will be out and Gronk is listed as questionable but even if he plays he will be way below 100%. We see a dramatic drop in the Patriots yards per point numbers since the injuries, through week 10 the Patriots were 1^st in yards per points at 12.4, over the last 3 weeks their yards per point is at 15.1.

As for the Texans they have been a dominant defense the last month and continue to be a bottom 10 offense. They rank 29^th on the season in yards per pass, 29^th in yards per rush and even though there numbers have been up the last month, their weighted offense still ranks in the bottom 3^rd.

Houston is a popular bet for sharps this week at home at +3.5 and if they are going to be competitive in this game or even win it, you have to imagine its on the strength of their defense and they win a close low scoring game. (more…)

After a roller coaster couple of weeks of extreme highs and then lows, Week 13 brought the dreaded .500 week which isn’t really break even because we lose the juice. The Breakdown of games was actually pretty good as I was right on 4 games, Seattle, the 2 unders and the Steelers and wrong on just 2 Chicago and Houston. Unfortunately I had Chicago in 2 bets, using it in the teaser with Pittsburgh and therefore we end up even on the week, nothing to celebrate.

Week 13: 3-3

2015 ATS: 45-31-2

Week 13 Results

What Went Right.

 Seattle is for Real: Quietly Seattle had jumped to #4 in overall DVOA and #1 in Weighted DVOA despite their record being just 6-5 going into their game in Minnesota. I almost stayed off this game because I have been burned by betting against the Vikings a number of times but I had this matchup as the #5 offense vs the #19 and didn’t think Bridgewater would be able to keep up and that is exactly how it played out. Very happy about my Seattle futures, I think they are the #2 team in the NFC jut edging the Cards.

 2-0 on Unders: In TB-ATL, both teams continued their under trends,  the TB defense was fantastic holding the Falcons to under 5 yards per play and while TB moved the ball well and scored in the redzone they also had a couple of turnovers that kept them from having a really big game on offense. As expected TB focused on the run, rushing 37 times which kept the clock moving and helped shorten the game.

Den-SD wasn’t close, neither team managed 300 yards of offense and 7 of the total 20 points in the game came from a return TD. Denver continue to be the best under team in the league with a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense even with improved play at QB. San Diego finished with just a FG for the second time in 3 weeks, against top 10 defenses they just cannot muster any offense.

What Went Wrong

The Bears: In hindsight, it was wrong to trust the Bears as such a large favorite, it’s a position they have not been in all year and covering a TD is not something we expect many 5-6 teams to do. The fact that they got 70% of bets in that position should have been a red flag as well.

Early Week 14 Bets

There were a lot of games I liked early in the week and I bet because the numbers were moving and I wanted to get in. I may go end up not keeping all of these after further review (Especially Det)  but as of Thursday Night, these were the games I bet.

Pit +3

Oak +7.5

Det -2.5

Buf +1

NE-Hou Under 45

 

Last week’s 1-6 finish too a lot out of me and I had a very hard time getting back into it this week. Regardless of how well you do overall it’s hard not to be shaken by a week where everything go’s wrong but in the end that’s the NFL. So many games come down to the last few positions and every once in a while you are going to have stretch where they all work out like week 11 or none go your way like Week 12. The season is still a plus and week 13 offers an opportunity to make things right again.

2015 Season ATS: 42-28-2

Game 1: Sea -2 @ Min

Bet% Sea 61% Min 39%

It seems every week my numbers have the Vikings over rated and yet they are 9-2 ATS which means that y record against them is obviously a loser. Clearly my numbers have missed something with Minnesota but this week I am taking one last shot against them hoping that Seattle can do what the Packers did 2 weeks which is win in Minnesota.

Seattle is # 4 in DVOA overall and in offense, they are averaging 5.9 yard per play on the season (4^th) but have been much better than that over the last month. Russell Wilson has an avg passer rating of 123.2 over his last 3 games and while the Vikings are 7^th in yards per passing att Wilson and the offense should be able to continue their success.

The Vikings continue to rely heavily on their #1 run game, they are averaging 4.9 yards per rush and 6.1 over their last 3 games. the Pass game has continued to struggle, 24^th in avg passer rating and 29^th n yards per pass att.

The Seahawks pass defense has been an issue the last month as both Ben Rothlisberger and Carson Palmer were able to have huge games vs Seattle. Those are 2 of the top 4 pass offenses in the league, much better than the Vikings. Seattle has continued to play the run well, giving up 3.7 yards per rush (7^th overall) so if they can slow Adrian Peterson down and put the game in Bridgewater’s hands, I don’t expect the Vikings will be able to keep up.

Game 2: Hou +3.5 @ Buf

Bet% Hou 65% Buf 35%

Houston has the hottest rising defense in the league, going into week 8 the Texans were 26^th in DVOA, this week they are ranked 8^th. Over the last 3 weeks, the Texans have held the opposition to a passer rating of 58.6, 4.9 yards per pass att 3.8 yards per rush and an amazing 9.7 points per game.

The Bills when healthy have been a very productive offense, 9^th in offensive DVOA so they should be able to have some success vs the Texans red hot defense but one place they have continued to struggle is their offensive line. The Bills are getting sacked on a little over 8% of pass plays and giving up 13.5 pressure plays per game (23^rd overall). The Texans have been able to generate a lot of pressure the last few weeks including 18 pressure plays last week and the 7^th best sack percentage on the season.

While the Texans defense has been red hot the Bills defense has not. The bills have given up 5.5 yards per play this season but 6.1 per play over there last 3 games and 7 yards per pass so the Texans should be able to move the ball enough in this game to stay close and have a shot to win. The total in his game 42 so obviously the score is expected to be low, with that, getting the hook with +3.5 and a defense dominating over the last 3 weeks feels too good to pass up.

Game 3: Atl @ TB Under 46

Bet% Over 59% TB 41%

This is a game where we are basically hoping that the recent trends by these teams continue. The Falcons got off to a 5-0 start and their offense led the way. In their last 5 games the Falcons are 1-4 and in their last 6 games the Falcons have scored 21 pts or less. Despite being viewed as an offensive team, Atlanta has had 7 of their 11 games go under this season.

TB has also had issues scoring in the last month outside of the explosion in Philadelphia 2 weeks again when they scored 45. The Eagles season has completely come off the rail so I think its fair to treat that game as an outlier in the Bucs season. In their last 5 games, TB has scored 20 or fewer in 3 of the games including games where they scored 10 vs Dallas and 12 last vs the Colts.

Both these pass games have been mediocre this season, ranking 19^th and 22^nd in avg passer rating and the falcons pass defense has been very good ranking 7^th overall in opp avg passer rating 82.8 and both teams have been great vs he pass in their last 3 games with avg opp ratings of 77.3 (Atl) and 79.2 (TB).

Both these teams will want to establish the run as they have all year but again both run defenses have been good, TB is giving up only 3.5 yards per rush this season and the Falcons have given up 3.7.

Game 4: Den @ SD Under 44

Bet% Over 55% Under 43%

The Broncos bring a top 3 defense to San Diego to play a very limited and one dimensional Chargers offense. Denver is the #1 DVOA defense and #27 offense so a solid under team. I think because of last week’s game vs the Patriots the expectations of what this offense is capable of are being overstated as Denver was greatly helped by the weather conditions and slick field that allowed a number of big runs. Denver has averaged 4.1 yards per rush on the season but last week averaged 5.6 yards because of a couple of long runs by CJ Anderson.

The Chargers are extremely shorthanded on offense after losing Keenan Allen and Floyd from their receiving corps but still have to rely on Rivers and the passing game because they are averaging only .4 yards per rush this season (30^th). The Broncos should have no problem limiting the Chargers in a similar fashion to what the Chiefs did in Week 11.

Game 5: 6Pt: Teaser – Chi -1 & Pit -1.5

Bet%  SF 34% Chi 66%,  Ind 49% Pit 51%

Obviously a super square teaser but I really do like both home favorites here and think they will most likely cover the numbers but rather than risk it, I will use them in the teaser.

Chicago has quietly been one of the most improving teams over the last 5 weeks, through 7 weeks they were 30^th in DVOA now they rank 14^th. The 49ers are dead last in DVOA and are one of the worst road teams in the league because their defense which play well at home, falls off the rails on the road. The 49ers give up a very respectable 5.2 yards per play at home but on the road that number jumps up to 6.9, opponents passer rating at home is 85.2 but on the road it jumps to 121.6 and overall the 49ers are giving up 15.8 points per game at home but 35.2 on the road.

The Steelers have the best offense in the NFL and I just do not think the Colts can keep up. The Colts have no run game, last week they averaged 1 yard per rush and they are averaging just 3.6 yards/rush on season the season so all of the pressure will be on the shoulders of 40 year old Matt Hasselback. So far Hasselback has been very good but the level of opposition has been very different, Hasselback has played, Jax, Hou, Atl and TB none of those teams have atop 10 offense that Hasselback had to keep up with.

Game 6: Adding SF @ Chi -6.5

Same write up as above, with the game dropping below a TD, I am going to use it on its own as well.