I am out of town this weekend and short on time so the write ups will be short and sweet, which is probably what they should be anyways. Had a nice bounce back week in Week 14, lets keep it going.
Week 14: 5-2
2015 ATS: 50-33-2
Game 1: Hou +2 @ Ind
Bet% Hou 56% Ind 44%
Andrew Luck practiced but will be out again this week which leaves the same Colts team we have seen over the last month which my numbers have as one of the worst in the league. My weighted numbers have Indy as the #32 offense and the #30 defense, the Texans getting blown out by the Patriots gives us a little line value here but the Patriots do that to a lot of teams and I expect the Texans to bounce back, especially their defense and dominate this struggling Colts offense.
Game 2: CAR @ NYG +5
Bet% CAR 66% NYG 34%
It feels like the sharps bet against the Panthers every week looking for their first loss and week after week the Panthers keep winning and covering. I was hoping to get this game at 6 but have had to settle on the no wheresville 5. There are no numbers under a TD that make the Giants a good bet here, the Panthers are in everyone’s top 3 and the Giants are at best mediocre middle of the pack.
There are couple of reasons why I feel like this could be the week, first we know the giants have done well in this spot before, vs the Patriots numerous times and also vs the 13-0 broncos a couple of years ago, for whatever reason, Coughlin and Eli have some of their best moments vs these undefeated top rated teams.
The second reason is that for the first time this season we see the Panthers have some guys off for injuries, including Jonathon Stewart who probably would have played had this game been a must win. There is a subtle move here by the staff to think of the playoffs and not the streak and I think that has a way of filtering to the players. If the Giants win, they are going to need turnovers much like the Saints got 2 weeks ago vs Carolina because there is no way their defense can get stops constantly through the game but think we may see a sloppy game here.
Game : GB @ Oak Over 47
Bet% Over Under
This is a straight follow play, which is not something I normally do. I listen to Gill Alexander’s NFL megapod every week and have for years, I believe it is the best betting podcast that is out. Normally I will only use plays that also match my numbers but this week both of the regular cappers Marco & VR, liked this over as their best bet and even though my numbers come a little lower I will follow.
While my weighted numbers have this game lower, I do think the matchup should produce points on both sides as the Raiders should be able to run vs GB which opens up their entire offense. The Packers haven’t had much success in their run game anyways so the Raiders run defense which has been very good shouldn’t impact their game plan and Rodgers should be able to have success vs the raiders secondary.
GAME 4 Den @ Pit -6.5
Bet% Den 50% Pit%
The leagues best defense at the leagues best offense. This is really as much about the spot as it is anything. The Steelers have to have this game, the Jets won yesterday and Steelers need this game to keep playoff hopes alive.
The Broncos offense has gone quiet with Osweiller at the helm and regardless of how good the defense is, they are going to need points in tissue game because the Steelers will score. I think we may see some mistakes from Denver on offense that help Steelers get a plus TD win.