Week 15 had could have been, should have been a big comeback week, we went 3-2 but the 2 losses were in great position in the 4th Q before falling apart. Cleveland was up 2 TDs and still blew it. Not only that, they had the ball first in OT so it is almost impossible to lose by more than a FG in that situation. Yet they did.
It’s been a rough go here on this blog and for most sports books the last 5 weeks as favorites and heavy public plays have cashed at record levels. There are some things I would do differently but there is still time left to turn this season around and I like this week’s card a lot. Let’s Go.
Week 13: 1-3
Game 1: Sea @ Jax Under 20 1st Half
Bet% Over 51 Under 49 (Full game)
These are the 2 teams I have constantly bet for 1st half unders and this matchup seems perfect for a low scoring start. Seattle constantly starts slow in games especially on the road and in this game you have to thing the Jags front will get after the Seattle Offensive line. The Jags weakness on defense is the run and i expect that Seattle will try to start the game by seeing if they can have success there. On the flip side Seattle has been terrific vs the run since adding Sheldon Richardson but I can’t seethe Jags putting the game in Bortles hands until they have to. This feels like a 7-3 half. (more…)
Unfortunately the 2 week hiatus after the birth of my daughter did not change my luck in the NFL as we had a another losing week and the record is now 6 games under .500. I have read a lot about how November is the best month ever for favorites and that the public has destroyed the books the last 6 weeks. It can’t continue going this way and in the last 3 prime time games I think we have seen the pendulum swing back. Hopefully this is the week we start our comeback but yeah Week 13 was another mess.
Week 13: 1 Win 3 Losses
What Went Right
Jimmy G debut: the only win we got was with the 49ers. This game wasn’t close, the 49ers out-gained the Bears 388 to 147 and the only thing that kept it close was the fact that SF went 0-5 in RZ and the Bears were 1-1.
After a 2 week hiatus I was able to spend some time looking at this weeks card and made some bets though there wont be much his week for write-ups. November was a historic month for favorites covering and as a result the dogs keep getting more value, at some point that’s going to matter.