Week 16 picks + Week 15 Review

Week 15 had could have been, should have been a big comeback week, we went 3-2 but the 2 losses were in great position in the 4th Q before falling apart. Cleveland was up 2 TDs and still blew it. Not only that, they had the ball first in OT so it is almost impossible to lose by more than a FG in that situation. Yet they did.

Week 15: 3 Wins 2 Losses

week 15,2017 review

2017: 28-33

Week 16 Picks

Game 1: Phi @ NYG Under 40.5

Bet% Over 70 Under 30

Not only is this the first game the Eagles are playing without Carson Wentz but the Eagles now have major issues on the left side of the Oline as the not only is Jason Peters out but now the starting LG Steve Wisniewski will also be out. Last week the Rams had 8 QB Hits and 8 tackles for loss. With Vaitai and Seuamala both starting I expect we will see the Eagles keep an extra player in to help those 2 out.

For the Giants last week was the big emotional game, Eli was back starting, Spags was the head coach and all of that got them 10 points. The Giants have been a steady under team and in a cold divisional game against the number 1 enemy, I expect them to play a good game on defense and keep it close. I think we will see a FG fest in this game.

Game 2: GB @ Car 

Bet% GB 40% Car 60%

The story here is Aaron Rodgers returning and possibly putting his team into the playoffs  id they can win out and as a result everyone has he Packers winning this week. The Panthers will be a very tough defense for Rodgers to get comfortable against, they are 6th overall in defensive DVOA and 1st in adjusted sack rate.

Cam has been a much different QB in 2nd half of the season as the run game is part of his arsenal again, GB is a middle of the pack defense and I expect Cam and the Panthers to be able to control this game with the run game.

Game 3: Arizona +4 @ Washington

Bet% Arizona 47% Was 53%

This is really  fade on Washington as they continue to battle injuries, cluster injuries on the offensive line and at Wide Reciever where it seems like a revolving door in and out of the lineup. The got blow out last week in LA by the Chargers and blown out by the Cowboys the week previous to that.

Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 beating both the Jags and Titans and seem to have found a nice rhythm  for Blaine Gabbert and a nice compliment in the run game with Kerwin Williams. The travel and start time worry me but in the end I think Washington is just a little too banged up.

Game 4: Dallas @ Oakland +3

Bet% Dal 67% Oak 33%

There are not a lot of numbers that make the Raiders the side here but this does feel like the perfect time for the Raiders to step up and make and win as a home dog.  The Cowboys won big last week vs the Giants but New York was paying as poorly as anyone. They also beat a very banged up Washington team.

The home field crowd should be a loud one here for SNF as this will probably be the last time the Raiders play a meaningful game on the bay. I’m not sold the Cowboys offense is fixed and being without Elliott one more game is why he the Raiders are a good bet for the home upset here.

Late Add: Game 5: Ten @ SF -2.5

Bet% Ten 43% SF 57%

Adding SF here, The Titans playing back to back games here on West Coast and the offense is a mess. The 49ers run defense stronger than pass which i good fit vs Titans. I like the way Garappolo has played so far and think Titans are most over rated team in current playoff spot.

 

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