Month: September 2017

Week 3 Review: 3-2

Week 3 was another wining week but honestly it is week that left me with more regret than happiness. Most weeks you are happy taking 3 out of 5 but this was a week where I feel like I just left too much meat on the bone.

Both games that I had listed as ‘considering but not bet’ in Week 2 write up, the Jets and Sea-Ten under 1st half cashed. Beyond that, this was one of the best weeks for underdogs in recent memory, going 12-4 by my count and a week like that is one where smart bettors should do much better than I did this week. So even though it was a winning week was I happy?

 sasha banks GIF

2017: 10-4

Week 3 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Week 3 review 2017 (more…)

Advertisements

WEEK 3 PICKS

It is the week of the home dogs with an amazing 11 home dogs and this definitely feels like a week where books are more than happy to take a lot of money on those short road favs. I am pretty sure that more of the home dogs will cover than not but you have to hope you are on the right ones.

Btw, Much love and respect to Colin Kaepernick, Lebron, Michael  Bennett, Malcolm Jenkins and all the real ones.

If you are more offended by protests of racism, inequality and injustice than the acts & existence of racism, inequality and injustice then you’re the problem #TakeAKnee

2016 Season: 56-40-3

2017: 7-2

Last Week: 4-1

GAME 1: Sea +2.5 @ Ten

Bet%: Sea 58% Ten 42% (more…)

Week 2 2017 Review: 4 – 1

When you start the 2017 season like a boss with back to back 1 loss weeks

In the grand scheme two winning weeks doesn’t guarantee anything but it is awful nice to start the year as a winner on back to back weeks and build a little bankroll as opposed to the opposite where you have to climb out of a hole. As the great Andy Reid always says, Any week you can win in the NFL is a good week.

2016 Season: 56-40-3

Week 1: 3-1

 Week 2 Results: 4 Wins 1 Loss (more…)

Week 2 Picks- Overreaction Week

Every year I post the thing same thing for week 2 and that is that it the week that has the most overreaction by bettors all season and therefore we should be able to find some good opportunities. We have seen 60 minutes of football and while that does provide us some information to form opinions it is important to understand the circumstances and be balanced in our week 2 opinions.

2016 Full Season: 56-40-3

Week 1 2017: 3-1

Game 1: Min @ Pit -5.5

Bet% Min 56% Pit 44%

This is my favourite type of game to bet week 2, 1 team (the Steelers) was a heavy favourite vs one of the worst teams from last year and did just enough to win while the other (Vikings) was extremely impressive on national TV vs a famous team.

(more…)

Week 1 2017 Review: 3-1

Always nice to start the season with a winning weekend. Week 1 offers a lot of value but it is easy to get caught expecting too much carryover from the previous season and I have to admit I was a little worried with the fact that our card was heavy on favorites.  Thankfully the wins came in and for the most part we didn’t need to sweat them out making week 1 a success.

2016 Full Season: 56-40-3

Week 1 2017: 3-1

Wk1 2017

What Went Right: (more…)

2017 Week 1 Picks

It is year 4 of GTC and we have had 3 straight years of winning seasons though last year was the worst record of the 3 after a bad run to close the year. The format of the blog will continue to be mostly the same with weekly picks going up usually Saturday Night and then the review post in the middle of the week. Last year we started with a perfect week 1, here’s hoping we can take it back for a similar start this year.

Previous 3 Seasons

2016 Regular Season: 53-37-3

2017 Playoffs: 3-3

2016-2017 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season) : 56 – 40- 3 or 53%

2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3

2016 NFL Playoffs including SB: 6-2

2015-16 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season): 63-37-3 or 63%

2014 Reg Season 60W-42L

2015 Playoffs & Superbowl 4-6

2014-2015 Total season 64-48 = 57%

Week 1 Picks

Game 1: Phi -1 @ Was

Bet % Phi 58%  Was 42%

This game opened with Was -3 which seems like the right opening number for any NFC East game but it has been basically unanimous that sharp money on the Eagles has moved this line, so why are they all on Eagles? (more…)

2016 Season Review By The Numbers

Just some cleanup on last season here at Get The Cover, it was the 3rd season I posted all my plays here and by percentage it was the worst season so far.

2016 Review (all plays posted on Get The Cover)

2016 Regular Season: 53-37-3

2017 Playoffs: 3-3

2016-2017 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season) : 56 – 40- 3 or 53%

While 53% isn’t terrible the goal is to cross the 55% bar annually and we missed it by a couple of plays. I dug in a little deeper to see how the bets last year broke down and basically it was a great year betting underdogs and pretty awful betting everything else.

Bet Type Wins Losses Pushes Win %
Underdog 29 14 2 64.4%
Favorite 13 15 1 44.8%
Under 5 5 0 50.0%
Over 4 3 0 57.1%
Teaser 3 3 0 50.0%
Pick’em 2 0 0 100.0%
Total 56 40 3 52.8%

 

This may be just an anomaly I do not remember having splits this dramatic in previous years but will be something to pay attention to this year.