Only one play for Championship week, I lean with Saints but didn’t like enough to bet in NFC title. Playoff lines get so tight it really is tough to find value but I like the Chiefs and the great Andy Reid getting back to the Superbowl and hopefully finally winning. There were some great pieces written on Reid this week and I expect there will be more but here was my favorite.  https://wapo.st/2Hq5zqr

 

2018 Season: 46 – 33 – 1

LW : 2 – 1

Game 1: NE @ KC -3

Bet% NE 45% KC%

I have only one play this week and it is on the Chiefs. When this line came out I had hoped that it might dip below the 3 as people would want to bet Bellichik and Brady over Big Red but the bet spread remained around 50% and I was pretty sure 3 would be best number.

At 3 we are saying that minus home field these teams are even on a neutral or that home field isn’t a big advantage either, I don’t believe either to be the case. Chiefs finished 1^st in DVOA had a point differential of 144 and are 8-1 at home including the playoff win. I thought last week was the game that the Chiefs had a lot of pressure in, they were a big favorite but had lost the opening game 3 times in a row under Reid, Pat Mahomes was in his first career playoff game and the Colts came in hot. The Chiefs dominated start to finish and I think that will allow them to come into this game with a lot of confidence.

New England finished 8^th I DVOA, they had a point differential of 11 but a couple of very interesting splits. New England was +110 in the division, feasting on the Jets, Bills and Dolphins again going 5-1.  The other key split is on the road, the Patriots were 3-5 and -19 but if we take out the division games they went 1-4 and were -51. By all accounts the Patriots were a bad road team and especially outside the division where they lost to the Jaguars, Titans, Lions and Steelers, 4 teams that all missed the playoffs. (more…)

We got 2 wins last week with that late score by Seattle, playoff lines get very tight and this week had me going back and forth on almost all the games.

LW: 2-0

2018 Season: 44 – 32 – 1

Game 1: Ind @ KC – 4.5

Bet%: Ind 60% KC 40%

I am on an island on this game as I cannot find another person that likes the Chiefs minus the points here. 60% of all bets on the road team, despite the Chiefs being the story of the year but recency bias is big here. The Colts have been one of the most impressive teams in last few weeks of season and the largest margin of victory last week. Meanwhile the Chiefs did not finish the season blowing out teams like they did early in season and looked less explosive after cutting Kareem Hunt.

These are the best teams by weighted DVOA, Chiefs 1, Colts 2 so I certainly can see the case for Colts getting points but I think we are getting too much value on Chiefs to pass up at home.

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Rough end to a good season in Week 16 going 0 – 4 but overall a very good year and there is a chance to keep adding here in playoffs starting with the always fun Wildcard Weekend

 

2018 Reg Season: 42-32-1

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser. Ind +8 @ Hou & Sea +8 @ Dal

Using a 6 pt teaser for these two road teams to get both over the TD. The Colts and Texans are playing their 3rd game of the year and the first 2 were both one score games including an OT game. I like Indy to win here, they finished 8th in DVOA but 4th in weighted while the Texans finished 11th but 13th in weighted so Colts definitely playing better to close out year.

The Texans have not been as explosive on offense as they were to start the year, they certainly miss Will Fuller and now are without his replacement Demaryius Thomas. Home field is really important in playoffs but if Texans win this game, I don’t see them running away.

In the Seattle Dallas game, I am selling on the Cowboys. By DVOA Dallas is the worst team in playoffs at 21 and 19 in weighted. I don’t love the Seattle offense and think the Dallas defense is the best group in the game but I trust that Russell Wilson can do enough to win this game. In the end I think you have 2 underwhelming teams but with Seattle you get the better coach and quarterback.

Late Add: Game 2 Sea @ Dal Over 43

Bet% Over 65% Under 35%

This game features two very run heavy offenses that have very good overall defensive numbers which is why this is a low total but \i think both teams will go to the pass and have success in this game. Both defenses ended the year with worse weighted defensive numbers than overall, Dallas is 9th overall in defensive DVOA but 11th in Weighted and Seattle was 14th overall but 19th in weighted. So both defenses are playing a little worse as season ends.

I think Seattle will be forced to go to pass early, Dallas is 5th vs the run but 16th vs the pass, and with Russell Wilson playing some of the best football of the season and this being the healthiest the Seattle receivers have been, it will then force Dallas to open up as well. I see a final score of 27-24 or something like that