Month: September 2021

Week 3 2021 Picks

Off a bad week last week with lots of missed opportunities but it’s a long season and the MNF game helped minimize the damage.

Week 2: 2-4

2021: 6-5

Using the TNF game in 2 teasers to start the week

Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Ari -1.5 – The Panthers have a tailormade spot to go 3-0 facing one of the 3 worst teams in the league with a back up QB making his first career start. Tacking on Arizona here, I didn’t think they were great last week but against maybe the worst team in the league I don’t see them winning under a FG.

Game 2: Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Cle -1 – Second teaser with the Panthers using the Browns here against the Bears. Fields is making his first career start on the road against a very good defense in the Browns, I think in an ideal world the Bears would have waited a week to start Fields vs the Lions but injury has forced the early start. The Browns should be able to control this game with their run game and win easily.

Other Games I have already bet, write ups to come. Will be adding a couple more later.

Game 3: TB -1 @ LAR: Rams defense seemed like a unit that would regress from last year after losing Brandon Staley and through 2 games this year they have had trouble containing Andy Daulton and Carson Wentz. The Bucs offensively are going to be able to stay away from Jalen Ramsey and should have mismatches with Goodwin and Gronk.

Game 4: LAC +7 @ KC : The Chiefs have been one of the worst ATS teams over the last year covering just once in their last 12 games. KC coninues to get the majority of bets every week including this week and a result we get value on a team that should be able to score at will against the Chiefs struggling defense.

Game 5: Mia +4 @ LV: The Raiders are coming off of 2 high profile wins and playing a back up QB who I am not sure is a downgrade over the starter. I am not sure the Raiders are a better team than the Dolphins and this seems like a spot where Miami comes in and wins straight up.

Game 6: Phi +4 @ Dal: Last week the Eagles probably deserved to win against the 49ers and the Cowboys could have just as easily lost to the Chargers if not for a couple of interesting calls. Eagles defensive line has dominated and it looks like the Cowboys are trying to be more balanced on offense instead of just putting the game in Prescott’s hands.

Week 2 2021 Picks

A Toast to a great start to the 2021 season in Week 1

Week 1: 4 – 1

2021 : 4-1

Week 2 Picks

Game 1: Buf @ Mia +3.5

Josh Allen has been great vs Miami so this could certainly be a big comeback spot for Buffalo but 3.5 points at home just feels like too much value to pass on. Miami’s strength on defense is their secondary we know Buffalo uses 4 and 5 wide more than any other team, if anyone can match up it’s Miami.

Game 2: SF @ Phi Over 49

I missed the Eagles +3.5 but I like the total just as much. The Eagles alst week had one of the best performances on offense in terms effciency and in the first half were one of the highest pace teams of the week while the game was in question. SF comes in with injuries all over their secondary and the Eages seem to have the weapons to take advantage. SF should also have a big game on offense, Eagles are weak in the middle of their defense at LB and Safety with Rodney Mcleod out, if anyone can take advantage of that, it’s Kyle Shanahan.

Game 3: NO @ Car Under 45

Last week the Saints defense dointed the Pacers offense and now play a Panthers team that couldn’t finish drives against the Jets. Meanwhile Winston did throw 5 TDs but had only 148 passing yards, which is more likely to continue?

Game 4: Den @ Jax +6

This is probably the game that had the largest movement based on week 1’s results, The Jags go from 3.5 point favs on the road to 6 pt dogs while the Broncos went from 2 point dogs to 6 point favorites. It maybe that the Jags are the worst team in the league but they are not going to get blown out every week and the Broncos offense is not one that should be running away in any game.

Game 5: Dal @ LAC -3

This is my fav bet on the week, money keeps coming in on the Cowboys despite so many of their key players out, along with suspended RT La’el Collins, Cowboys will be without their best defensive player Demarcus Lawrence, starting safeties Kazee and Wilson plus Michael Gallup. Love this spot for the Chargers.

Game 6: Det @ GB -11.5

Liked this one at open, Detroit dis all their damage last week in final 2 minutes of a game they were down 3 TDs, recovery an onside kick and basically got every break possible for that final part of game. Packers are coming off of Aaron Rodgers worst game in years and if there was ever a golden opportunity to show out and show off, Monday night at home against the Lions is it.

Week 1 2021 Picks

Week 1 of every season is a mix of excitement and pressure especially coming off of a so so year last year.

Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Atl

Eagles have chance to have top 5 offensive and defensive lines, both units start season healthy and I think give Eagles legit shot to win this game straight up.

Game 2: Phi @ Atl Over 48.5

Both offenses have advantages in this game, expect Eagles to give Hurts every opportunity in run option game, Eagles have upgraded speed at skill positions. Falcons pass game should have mismatches vs Eagles secondary, Eagles injuries at safety will make covering Pitts impossible.

Game 3: Sea -2.5 @ Ind

This is really a bet against the tumultuous summer the Colts have had this year. As an Eagles fan I have seen Carson Wentz at his best and worst, it is hard to imagine we are going to see the best after a summer where he was traded, got hurt an missed almost all of camp, came back and missed time for Covid, lost TY Hilton for the season and a number of key Colts missed time for Covid. Seattle on the other hand is bringing back most of the key components of their offense and look to have solidified their offensive line for the first time in a decade.

Game 4: Jax @ Hou +3.5

Honestly this is just a bet that the Jags should not be favored by 3.5 points over any team on the road with a rookie head coach and rookie QB. Last year the Jags won their opener and lost the next 15, I could see that for the Texans this year.

Game 5: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: SF -2.5 @ Det & Chi @ LAR -2

The squarest teaser on the board, everyone will be teasing 49ers and Rams but they both follow the Stanford Wong rule of crossing the 7 and 3 giving us maximum value on the teaser.

Games not bet yet but waiting for number.

Mia @ NE

I really like the Pats but his game went from -2.5 to 3 and now is at 3.5. If this gets back down to to -3 before kickoff, I will take the Patriots,

Cle @ KC

Like the Browns here if I can get 6 again, currently the number is at 5.5, hoping money comes in on KC on Sunday and we can get 6 or 6.5 for the Browns.