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Superbowl LII Eagles – Patriots : Dreams and Nightmares

2017 Reg Season 29-36

2017 Playoffs: 1-1

 New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

Superbowl Bets:

1) Eagles +3 1st Half

2) Eagles +5 Full Game

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Conference Final 2018

Our reg season from the abyss continued into playoffs as the Steelers followed up the worst coached reg season game of the year vs the Jags with the worst coached playoff game of the year and killed the 2nd half of our 2 team teaser. The Eagles not only covered the +9 we had but won straight up setting up a middling opportunity for me with the Jags which I didn’t take. Dumb.

2017 Reg Season 29-36

2017 Playoffs: 0-1

Conference Finals

Game 1: Min @ Phi +3

Bet% Min 55% Phi 45%

These teams feel a lot closer than the spread indicates. Basically this has the Vikings as 6 point favorites on a neutral and I just don;t see it. The big discrepancy appears to be at QB with Case Keenum being rated far higher than Nick Foles. Keenum has definitely had a very productive season but he is also much more of a risk taker compared to the cautious Foles. The upside of those risky plays is being priced here but I don’t think the downside is. (more…)

Divisional Rd Pick

2017 Reg Season – 29-36

Divisional Rd 

Game 1: 6 Point Teaser Phi +9 and Pit -1

Bet% Atl 63% Phi 27%

Bet% Jax 39% Pit 61%

Eagles are the number 1 seed and 3 pt underdogs here with Nick Foles at QB. Falcons played a great game last week and lead start to finish but the conditions in Philly will be much more difficult. This will be the Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks while the Eagles will obviously be rested off a bye and only a quarter of play in week 17. I like the Eagles defense and run game to keep them in this game and think they have a legit shot to win straight up so teasing over the TD feels like the safest tag with the Steelers.

The Jags embarrassed the Steelers in reg season 30-9 in a game that Bortles completed a total of 8 passes for 95 yards and an Interception. Jacksonville scored 2 TDs on defense in that game leading to a game script that seems impossible to replicate but necessary if the Jags are going to win here. Can’t see lightning striking twice.

Week 14: Comeback Season

 

It’s been a rough go here on this blog and for most sports books the last 5 weeks as favorites and heavy public plays have cashed at record levels. There are some things I would do differently but there is still time left to turn this season around and I like this week’s card a lot. Let’s Go.

2017: 25-31

Week 13: 1-3

Game 1: Sea @ Jax Under 20 1st Half

Bet% Over 51 Under 49 (Full game)

These are the 2 teams I have constantly bet for 1st half unders and this matchup seems perfect for a low scoring start. Seattle constantly starts slow in games especially on the road and in this game you have to thing the Jags front will get after the Seattle Offensive line.  The Jags weakness on defense is the run and i expect that Seattle will try to start the game by seeing if they can have success there. On the flip side Seattle has been terrific vs the run since adding Sheldon Richardson but I can’t seethe Jags putting the game in Bortles hands until they have to. This feels like a 7-3 half. (more…)

Week 13 Review 1-3

Unfortunately the 2 week hiatus after the birth of my daughter did not change my luck in the NFL as we had a another losing week and the record is now 6 games under .500. I have read a lot about how November is the best month ever for favorites and that the public has destroyed the books the last 6 weeks. It can’t continue going this way and in the last 3 prime time games I think we have seen the pendulum swing back. Hopefully this is the week we start our comeback but yeah Week 13 was another mess.

Sasha fail

2017: 25-31

Week 13: 1 Win 3 Losses

week 13 2017 results

What Went Right

  • Jimmy G debut: the only win we got was with the 49ers. This game wasn’t close, the 49ers out-gained the Bears 388 to 147 and the only thing that kept it close was the fact that SF went 0-5 in RZ and the Bears were 1-1.

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Week 13 Picks

After a 2 week hiatus I was able to spend some time looking at this weeks card and made some bets though there wont be much his week for write-ups. November was a historic month for favorites covering and as a result the dogs keep getting more value, at some point that’s going to matter.

2017: 24-28 (more…)

Week 10 Review- no week 11 Picks.

So last Sunday was another terrible day as we went 0-4 on the week 10 picks https://getthecover.com/2017/11/09/week-10-picks/ . Heres the thing I didn’t care one bit because on Saturday Morning last week I became a father for the first time to a beautful little girl and the picks didn’t matter much. 

Week 10: 0 wins 4 losses

2017: 24-28

No week 11 picks, the week has been a whirlwind I’m not even sure who is playing this week besides the Eagles and Dallas but good luck to all on your picks. I will hopefully have something for week 12 but we will see. For this Sunday I will just be an Eagles fan and a dad. 

Week 9 Review: 2-4

For the 2nd week in a row we ended up down and now sit at .500 at the halfway mark. For the next few weeks I will defiantly be tightening up the cards but the season is long and there is still a lot of time to have a good season here.  That being said, it’s been tough, for 2 weeks in a row we have seen favorites big and small over the majority of games and when you bet mostly dogs it’s pretty easy to have a card that looks completely wrong in those situations.

Sasha Banks WWE GIF - SashaBanks WWE Raw GIFs

2017: 24-24

Week 9: 2 Wins 4 Losses

Week 9 review2017 (more…)

Week 10 Picks

This is turning out to be a huge week in my real life so not a lot of time to spend on some of these write ups this week but hoping to get back to the winning ways of earlier in the year.

 

2017: 24-24

LW: 2-4

Game 1: NO @ Buf Under 48

Bet% NO 34% Buf 66%

The Saints are an under the radar ‘under’ team. Year after year they have been a high powered offense and bottom 3 defense but this year is playing out differently. While the Saints are still one of the most efficient offenses in the league, this isn’t just Brees dropping back and passing for 300+ yards a game. The Saints rely much more on their running backs, last year the Saints rushed on 36% of plays on offense and passed 64%, this year they are running 44.6%, a massive increase and as a result Drew Brees who averaged 42 pass attempts per game last year is down to 34.4 attempts per game this year.

The other big story with the Saints is their defense, they have moved up to 8th in defensive DVOA and 4th vs the pass. They are still struggling vs the run, 28th in DVOA and 29th in rush yards per att. There is no question that the Bills best way to attack in this game will be on the ground and as a result I expect both teams to come in with a heavy run game plan. This means the clock keeps running, we have a shorter game and hopefully fewer explosive plays down the field.

The Bills defense has fallen off the last few weeks from their big start but this feels like a spot where we see them step up. Sean Mcdermitt will know the Saints well from his time as the Panthers DC and traditionally we know that the Saints offense isn’t near as explosive on the road especially in outdoor- grass stadiums.

Game 2: NYJ @ TB Over 42.5

Bet% Over 80% Under 20%

The ultimate revenge game as both QB’s, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown play against their former teams. The Bucs will be without Winston and Mike Evans his week but I think that Fitzpatrick and this offense will still have success against this Jets defense. The Bucs season is probably over so I don’t think there is any real reason for the Bucs to play this game conservatively and stick with the run. The other thing about Fitzpatrick is that turnovers, pick 6’s are always on the menu and can lead to quick scores.

The Jets offense has been much better than anyone expected going into the season, McCown is 8th best in passer rating and averaging 6.7 yards per pass att, the Jets are averaging 21. PPG for the year but 27 over their last 3. This week the jets face the worst defense in the league, TB is 30th in defensive DVOA, 31st is pass defense, giving up 7.8 yards per pass att and are giving up just under 25 points per game.

I think this game has a number of ways of getting over this total, both offenses could overwhelm poor defense and put up big numbers or either of the QBs could put up a bunch of turnovers that lead to scores by the defense or short fields for the offense.

Game 3: Min @ Was 2.5

Bet% Min 48% Was 52%

Washington just played 2 games vs very good teams with top 10 offenses with a number of key players missing and went 1-1. The win over the Seahawks was their biggest and most impressive win of the year and I’m not sure how they are not favored at home in this game. Minnesota is having a very good year but Case Keenum as a road favorite against a .500 or above team just feels like a lot to answer.

It does not look like Washington will get LT Trent Williams back for this game though he did particpate in practiceon limited basis on Friday but they do expect to have Brandon Scherff and Sean Lauvau back on the offensive line and Jamison Crowder back at receiver. If all of those players play there is no way that Washington shouldn’t be favored in this game never mind getting 2.5.

Minnesota is coming off of a bye, Sam Bradford will now miss the rest of the year with his knee injury and Teddy Bridgewater is back practicing. One of the interesting thing about the Vikings season is they just haven’t played anyone we know is good since week 2 vs the Steelers. They played the packers but that was the game that Rodgers got hurt in the 1st Q. Besides that game they have played, the Bears, Browns, Ravens, Bucs and Lions. Not exactly a murderers row. 

Game 4:Cle +10.5 @ Det

Bet% Cle 34% Det66%

The Browns are 0-8 and they aren’t likley to win a game anytime soon. I could find some matchup that favors the Browns and say that is the reason to take them this week but honestly it’s really simple and has nothing to do with ny matchup that favors the Browns. Cleveland is desperate to win, the mangement spent the last few weeks downplaying the season and statng they are still on track. Coming  off their bye week you expect a big effort and this week they play a Lions team coming off of 2 straight prime time games so this is a natural let down spot. The Lions passing game has been great the last few weeks but if they don’t continue to play at that level his week then the rest of this tem isn’t good enough to cover double digits. 
Cleveland hs the talent on defense to create some turnovers and stay in this game but it’s hard to trust the offense to do anything so I’m not sure they can really win straight up but I do think they can get close here.