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Week 10 Picks

Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.

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Week 9: 4-0

2018: 27-14

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1

On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score. (more…)

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Week 9 Picks

After a red hot start, we have stalled the last 2 weeks and maybe as a result of that this week’s card looks pretty tight as well. It actually looked like we had a winning week late with the 49ers up in Arizona but after doing nothing all game we saw Rosen not only come down and score a TD but also complete the 2pt conversion and hand us our first losing week in a month.

dumbfounded kansas city chiefs GIF by NFL

Week 8: 2-3

2018: 23-14

Game 1: 6 Pt Teaser – KC -2.5 @ Cle & Pit +7 @ Bal

I know a lot of sharps are on Cle because of the coaching change and the idea that teams get a short term boost from coaching changes but I feel very confident in a matchup of Andy Reid vs Greg Williams. Yes Williams won a Superbowl but e also ad a stretch of 5 years where his teams were in the bottom 5 of Defensive DVOA. (more…)

Week 8 Picks

Week 7 I felt lucky to get away 2-2 after starting the morning 0-2 and then needing a missed FG in the Dallas – Washington game. We have 5 games on the card this week including a couple of hold your nose plays.

 

Week 7: 2-2

2018: 21- 11

Game 1: 2 team Teaser: Cle @ Pit -2.5 & Den @ KC-2.5

This play is obviously as square as it gets but I am trying to cash in on KC and ride this wave and using them in a teaser feels like the safest way, we did it last week and didn’t have to sweat it for even 5 seconds.  This is a game that Broncos will need to keep up in and that is a lot to ask of Case Keenum who is 28th in Total QBR, Broncos only road win this year was last week in Arizona, this is a bit of a step up.

The Browns to me are one of the 2 or 3 worst coached teams in the league, they are coming off of an OT loss on the road last week in Tampa, a game they should have won about 3 times. I don’t see them keeping this with a TD. (more…)

Week 6 Picks

Week 5 got off to a rough start in the morning but we swept the afternoon led by Russel Wilson and added another winning week to the tally. Lets keep it going for week 6.

russell wilson football GIF by Alaska Airlines

Week 5: 3 – 2

2018: 16-8

Game1: LAC pk @ Cle

Bet% LAC 60% Cle 40%

While Cleveland has improved this year and has already won 2 more games this year than all of last year this game at a pick is too much value on the Chargers. Chargers are 5th in DVOA to start the year while Cleveland is 25th. Cleveland is also coming off of 2 straight OT games including a big win vs divisional opponents Baltimore last week. This seems like a spot where the Browns get down early and struggle big after that, I like the Chargers by TD plus.

Game 2 : Car @ Was +1

Bet% Car 64% Was 36%

Last week Washington got blown out on MNF while the Panthers got a big save from the kicker who made a 63 yd FG to beat NYG at home. I think those 2 finishes get Us some value on Washington here who I believe should be favored. Before last week Washington was 12th in defensive DVOA, the Saints game dropped them to 24. At home, I expect that defense to get back to form and play well as I do with Alex Smith ehomolayed his worst game in 2 years.

Game 3: Bal @ Ten +2.5

Bet% Bal 43% Ten57%

The Ravens are playing in a situation that is almost an automatic fade me. they are playing their 3rd straight road game where they split their first 2. We also get the Titans in a good spot as they are coming off of their worst loss of the year LW in Buffalo after 3 straight wins vs Houston, the Jags and Eagles. Love the Titans here and think they win straight up

Game 4: TB @ Atl -3

Bet% TB 30% Atl 70%

This is basically the season for the Falcons and yes the defense is abysmal but it’s not hard to see a scenario where Jamie Winston doesn’t make a big mistake or too in this spot. The Falcons offense should have no trouble scoring against the Bucs defense ranked 32 in DVOA.

Week 5 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Wk 5

Week 5 2018

Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.

pat mahomes ii GIF by NFL

Week 4: 3-1

2018: 13 – 6

Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43

Bet% 53 Over 47% Under

Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5th in DVOA and have been especially good at home.  I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet. (more…)

Week 3 – TNF

Week 3

Last Week:: 2W-3L

2018: 5W – 4L

Game 1: NYJ @ Cle -3

Bet% NYJ 37% Cle 63%

For the record, I hate Thursday Night Football. I hate watching TNF and I hate betting TNF because there seems to be much more randomness in these games but I am going to jump in here and take the Browns to win their first game and I think they will win by a TD or more.

baker mayfield dancing GIF by NFL

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Week 2 2018

We got off to a nice start in week 1 and traditionally I have done well in  week 2 so here’s hoping for a big start.

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Week 1: 3 Wins 1 Loss 

Week 2

Game 1: KC @ Pit -4

Bet% KC 62% Pit 38%

Game 2 KC Pit Over 52

Bet% Over 72 Under 28%

I was on KC last week and liked Cleveland but the line moved a little to much for me to bet so the week 1 results were not surprising to me. Andy Reid is traditionally great in any game where he has extra time to get ready and season openers certainly apply. Chiefs won easily but the Chargers dropped 2 sure TDs and were able to move the ball easily to the tune of  524 yards or 7.3 yards per play. We knew the Chiefs defense was a problem coming into the season and even though they won in week 1 it clearly is an issue.  (more…)