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Week 7 NFL Picks

LW: 1-4

2019: 16-12

Game 1: KC @ Den -3

Bet% : KC 75% 25%

All the sharp and professional money is on the Broncos, this line opened at 4.5 and has been bet down to 3. The Bet%, sharp money all points to 1 side but I just cant pass up this price for KC. Even after 2 straight losses, Chiefs are still 3rd in DVOA, after 2 straight wins the Broncos are 18th. Denver beat Mariota and Tanehill last week, they beat Phillip Rivers and the decimated Chargers the week before and have faced mostly bottom 10 QBs this year outside of Aaron Rodgers. This is a super public play, the money is on other side but I cant imagine getting Chiefs this cheap again so I will bite.

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Week 6 NFL Picks

LW: 4-1

2019: 15-8

Carolina Panthers Christian Mccaffrey GIF - CarolinaPanthers ChristianMccaffrey Touchdown GIFs

Game 1: Cin +12 @ Bal

Bet%: Cin 53% Bal47%

I was on the Bengals last week and new very early I was on wrong side and looking back it is probably the type of bet its best to stay away from. Last week we needed a very bad Bengals team to not just win their first game vs the equally bad Cardinals but also do it by ore tan a FG, that is a big ask of a bad team. This week the Bengals are still a very bad team, 31st in DVOA, but the ask is to not lose by 2 TDs, which seems much more doable. (more…)

Week 5 NFL Picks

Last Week: 3-2

2019: 11-7

Philadelphia Eagles Football GIF by NFL

Game 1: Ari @ Cin-3

Bet% Ari 70% Cin 30%

These are objectively two of the worst teams in the league and statistically there is not a lot to separate them, ex in DVOA Arizona is 30th and the Bengals are 31st. For me the reason to bet the Bengals is just the spot. The Bengals played one of the worst games of the season on national TV on Monday Night, they couldn’t have looked worse and everyone saw it. The result of that game is we have 70% of bets on the winless Cardinals this week, on the road, a west coast team flying across country and playing in the early game. The Bengals have 2 games they were in position to win, week 1 in Seattle and week 3 in Buffalo, they lead both games 17-14 in the 2nd half before losing. That Buffalo loss followed a dismal home game vs the 49ers where Cincinnati got blown out 41-17, so we have seen the Bengals follow up a terrible performance with one of their best. The Bengals are home after 2 straight road games and go back on road next week, this has to be a circle game to get their coach is first win. (more…)

Week 4 NFL Picks

LW: 2-2

2019 Season: 8-5

TNF: Phi +6 (-120) @ GB

Bet% Phi 33% GB 67%

I bet this game on Tuesday when the line was 5.5 and bought the extra half point to take it to 6.

TNF

As of Thursday afternoon this line has been dropping and is now mostly 3.5. I wouldn’t have bet this game under 4 because I do think the value is gone. That being said, I bet this game when Alshon Jeffrey was listed as practicing, even if he is not a 100% he will help take attention away from Zach Ertz. This isn’t a must win but the Eagles are getting close to desperate time especially when you look at the upcoming schedule. Eagles are  0-3 against the spread and the Packers are 3-0, Pederson is 4-0 on TNF. The Packers are easily the best defense the Eagles have played so far but Wentz is also likely the most dangerous QB the Packers have played. The first half will be a good indicator of this game, The Packers have been great in 1st half the Eagles are one of the lowest scoring 1st half teams. If Eagles can stay close early they will have a chance to win, if Packers get out early then we are probably left hoping for a back door cover.

Sunday Picks

Game 2: Car +5 @ Hou

Bet% Car 35% Hou 65%

The Panthers are one of the most interesting teams n the league. They have upgraded the talent level on offense and defense the last 2 years and last year started out 6-2 before Cam got hurt and the season fell apart. This year they once again looked like one of the most talented teams in the NFC but lost the first 2 games because Newton was clearly not over the foot injury he suffered in the preseason. Last week with a healthy QB the Panthers once again showed the form they did last year. While I don’t expect Kyle Allen to have a 4TD game, the Panthers should be able to move the ball and put up points.

The biggest mismatch in this game may be the Panthers Dline vs the Texans offensive line, the Texans line is 30th in adjusted sack rate and the Panthers defensive line is 4th. The Panthers line can control this game and cause havoc for Desaun Watson, if they get create a turnover or two they can win this game outright.

Game 3: Ten @ Atl -3.5

Bet% Ten 50% Atl 50%

In a game of 1 win teams I am taking not only the more talented team but also the one that plays much better at home. Atlanta played a terrible game in their opener but then beat the Eagles at home on SNF and last week lost 27-24 at Indy in a game they put up almost 400 yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. The Titans played that same Colts team the week previous at home and put up 243 yards or 4.3 per play. Last week vs the Jags, Marcus Mariotta averaged 5.1 yards per att and was sacked 9 times.

I fully expect the Falcons offense to be able to score in this game even though the Titans defense is pretty good. Tennessee is 12th in defensive DVOA, 7th in Yards per pass attempt at 5.9 but on the road they have given up 6.6. The Titans are clearly much more comfortable leading with the run, if Atlanta can scores the way they are capable of, Tennessee will be forced to put the game in Mariotta’s hands and I can’t see him keeping up.

Game 4: TB +9.5 @ LAR

Bet% TB 47% LAR 53%

There is not a lot to breakdown here, this is really just a bet on the very large number and the schedule spot for the Rams. The Rams are 3-0 but haven’t been blowing teams out or putting up monster number the way they did but still, 3-0 is 3-0. If you look at the Rams schedule, 2 weeks ago they played the Saints in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, last week they played in primetime on SNF and next week the Rams play divisional rival Seattle on TNF in Seattle. We know sometimes teams starting looking ahead to the Thursdays games even doing some prep for that game during the previous week well if there was ever a game you might take some time away from it, the a home game vs Tamp Bay would be it.

With the Bucs we get 2 things you like in this matchup, first is a passing game very capable of scoring points, Mike Evans broke out with 3 TDs last week and while Winston has lost plenty of games with interceptions with a number this big you want a guy capable of the plus plays because we have some margin on the downside. The other thing we get with the Bucs is a very good run defense so far this year. TB is giving up 3 yards per att, which is 2nd in the league, and they have faced McCafrey, Barkley and the 49ers who have one of the best designed run games in the league. We know the Rams base everything off the run with play action so that run defense could be key here.

Game 5: Jax @ Den -2.5

Bet% Jax 49% Den 51%

This feels like a great spot for the Broncos to get their first win of the season. Traditionally Denver has had one of the best home records in September, the altitude is extra difficult for teams to face early in the year when they are still getting into the season. The Jags won their first game of the year last week on TNF and rookie Gardner Minshew had his moment in the sun, he only passed for 200 yards bt had 2 TDs and the Jags won easy. The Broncos defense might not be as good as we thought coming into the season but them having 0 sacks and 0 takeaways is shocking and at some point a team with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is going to break out, this week feels like a perfect spot. The Broncos have faced some very good defenses with Bears and Packers so the Jags defense should not be a big shock and Jalen Ramsey is not expected to play which also helps Denver.

Week 3 Picks 2019

One of the bet bets in week 3 historically has been betting on 0-2 teams vs 2-0 teams because usually you end up with an inflated number based on only 2 games of action. This is a theme of our week 3 picks as we end up on 0-2 teams for the majority of bets, here’s praying they are all playing to save their seasons.

philadelphia eagles omg GIF by NFL

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Week 2 Picks: 2019

After a hot start in Week 1, time to roll into Week 2 Picks

Tumbling Desean Jackson GIF by NFL

2018 Season: 44-34-1

Week 1: 4 – 1

Week 2 Picks

Game 1: Sea @ Pit -3.5

Bet% Sea 45% Pit 55%

This is really the classic week 2 game I love to bet, We have a one team, The Steelers, that came into the season with high expectations but got blown out on national TV. On the other side we have the Seahawks who won their opener at home despite being badly outplayed and now has to travel across country.

Last week there was not a team less deserving of a win than Seattle, The Bengals outgained Seattle 429 to 232, ran 21 more plays 70-49 and had 10 more First Downs 22-12. Seattle really had no business winning that game. Seattle is traditionally a much better team at home, last season they were 6-2 at home and 4-4 on the road but 3 of those 4 wins were against bottom dwellers Oak, Ari and Det. (more…)

Super Bowl 53- Rams vs Patriots

It’s Superbowl weekend and this is going to sound crazy because I know people who haven’t bet all year all have bets on today but I do not have an official play on the game. Before we get to that let’s enjoy this from last year first. #FlyEaglesFly

2018 Season : 46-34-1

Championship Weekend: 0-1

Playoffs: 2-2

SUPERBOWL 53: NE – LAR – No Play

It seems crazy but I just never saw value on this game, I wanted the Rams +3 and it got to 3 -120 at a couple of places but has since moved down and the 2.5’s have moved to 2 at the sharper books. I also liked the under in first half but once it moved from 28 I had missed the value there as well and it never got back. The game has felt like a coin flip from the jump to me, I just never felt like there was an edge on either side I liked but at 3 it would have been a play on Rams.

I will look to live bet this game, if the Pats score first then I may jump on Rams plus points or if there is an ealry score and I can get the under 28 prorated that may also be a play but nothing for sure.

That being said here are some props I am playing, small amounts but a few plays I like

  1. 1st Quarter total under 10.5 (-125)
  2. Rob Gronkowski over 3.5 receptions (-200)
  3. Julian Eddleman under 82.5 receiving yards (-105)
  4. James Devlin Over 1.5 total yards (-140)

 

 

Championship Week Pick 2019

Only one play for Championship week, I lean with Saints but didn’t like enough to bet in NFC title. Playoff lines get so tight it really is tough to find value but I like the Chiefs and the great Andy Reid getting back to the Superbowl and hopefully finally winning. There were some great pieces written on Reid this week and I expect there will be more but here was my favorite.  https://wapo.st/2Hq5zqr

Andy Reid GIF - Andy Reid GIFs

 

2018 Season: 46 – 33 – 1

LW : 2 – 1

Game 1: NE @ KC -3

Bet% NE 45% KC%

I have only one play this week and it is on the Chiefs. When this line came out I had hoped that it might dip below the 3 as people would want to bet Bellichik and Brady over Big Red but the bet spread remained around 50% and I was pretty sure 3 would be best number.

At 3 we are saying that minus home field these teams are even on a neutral or that home field isn’t a big advantage either, I don’t believe either to be the case. Chiefs finished 1st in DVOA had a point differential of 144 and are 8-1 at home including the playoff win. I thought last week was the game that the Chiefs had a lot of pressure in, they were a big favorite but had lost the opening game 3 times in a row under Reid, Pat Mahomes was in his first career playoff game and the Colts came in hot. The Chiefs dominated start to finish and I think that will allow them to come into this game with a lot of confidence.

New England finished 8th I DVOA, they had a point differential of 11 but a couple of very interesting splits. New England was +110 in the division, feasting on the Jets, Bills and Dolphins again going 5-1.  The other key split is on the road, the Patriots were 3-5 and -19 but if we take out the division games they went 1-4 and were -51. By all accounts the Patriots were a bad road team and especially outside the division where they lost to the Jaguars, Titans, Lions and Steelers, 4 teams that all missed the playoffs. (more…)

Divisional Round Picks 2018

We got 2 wins last week with that late score by Seattle, playoff lines get very tight and this week had me going back and forth on almost all the games.

2017 pro bowl afc GIF by NFL

LW: 2-0

2018 Season: 44 – 32 – 1

Game 1: Ind @ KC – 4.5

Bet%: Ind 60% KC 40%

I am on an island on this game as I cannot find another person that likes the Chiefs minus the points here. 60% of all bets on the road team, despite the Chiefs being the story of the year but recency bias is big here. The Colts have been one of the most impressive teams in last few weeks of season and the largest margin of victory last week. Meanwhile the Chiefs did not finish the season blowing out teams like they did early in season and looked less explosive after cutting Kareem Hunt.

These are the best teams by weighted DVOA, Chiefs 1, Colts 2 so I certainly can see the case for Colts getting points but I think we are getting too much value on Chiefs to pass up at home.

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