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Week 10 Review- no week 11 Picks.

So last Sunday was another terrible day as we went 0-4 on the week 10 picks https://getthecover.com/2017/11/09/week-10-picks/ . Heres the thing I didn’t care one bit because on Saturday Morning last week I became a father for the first time to a beautful little girl and the picks didn’t matter much. 

Week 10: 0 wins 4 losses

2017: 24-28

No week 11 picks, the week has been a whirlwind I’m not even sure who is playing this week besides the Eagles and Dallas but good luck to all on your picks. I will hopefully have something for week 12 but we will see. For this Sunday I will just be an Eagles fan and a dad. 

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Week 9 Review: 2-4

For the 2nd week in a row we ended up down and now sit at .500 at the halfway mark. For the next few weeks I will defiantly be tightening up the cards but the season is long and there is still a lot of time to have a good season here.  That being said, it’s been tough, for 2 weeks in a row we have seen favorites big and small over the majority of games and when you bet mostly dogs it’s pretty easy to have a card that looks completely wrong in those situations.

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2017: 24-24

Week 9: 2 Wins 4 Losses

Week 9 review2017 (more…)

Week 10 Picks

This is turning out to be a huge week in my real life so not a lot of time to spend on some of these write ups this week but hoping to get back to the winning ways of earlier in the year.

 

2017: 24-24

LW: 2-4

Game 1: NO @ Buf Under 48

Bet% NO 34% Buf 66%

The Saints are an under the radar ‘under’ team. Year after year they have been a high powered offense and bottom 3 defense but this year is playing out differently. While the Saints are still one of the most efficient offenses in the league, this isn’t just Brees dropping back and passing for 300+ yards a game. The Saints rely much more on their running backs, last year the Saints rushed on 36% of plays on offense and passed 64%, this year they are running 44.6%, a massive increase and as a result Drew Brees who averaged 42 pass attempts per game last year is down to 34.4 attempts per game this year.

The other big story with the Saints is their defense, they have moved up to 8th in defensive DVOA and 4th vs the pass. They are still struggling vs the run, 28th in DVOA and 29th in rush yards per att. There is no question that the Bills best way to attack in this game will be on the ground and as a result I expect both teams to come in with a heavy run game plan. This means the clock keeps running, we have a shorter game and hopefully fewer explosive plays down the field.

The Bills defense has fallen off the last few weeks from their big start but this feels like a spot where we see them step up. Sean Mcdermitt will know the Saints well from his time as the Panthers DC and traditionally we know that the Saints offense isn’t near as explosive on the road especially in outdoor- grass stadiums.

Game 2: NYJ @ TB Over 42.5

Bet% Over 80% Under 20%

The ultimate revenge game as both QB’s, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown play against their former teams. The Bucs will be without Winston and Mike Evans his week but I think that Fitzpatrick and this offense will still have success against this Jets defense. The Bucs season is probably over so I don’t think there is any real reason for the Bucs to play this game conservatively and stick with the run. The other thing about Fitzpatrick is that turnovers, pick 6’s are always on the menu and can lead to quick scores.

The Jets offense has been much better than anyone expected going into the season, McCown is 8th best in passer rating and averaging 6.7 yards per pass att, the Jets are averaging 21. PPG for the year but 27 over their last 3. This week the jets face the worst defense in the league, TB is 30th in defensive DVOA, 31st is pass defense, giving up 7.8 yards per pass att and are giving up just under 25 points per game.

I think this game has a number of ways of getting over this total, both offenses could overwhelm poor defense and put up big numbers or either of the QBs could put up a bunch of turnovers that lead to scores by the defense or short fields for the offense.

Game 3: Min @ Was 2.5

Bet% Min 48% Was 52%

Washington just played 2 games vs very good teams with top 10 offenses with a number of key players missing and went 1-1. The win over the Seahawks was their biggest and most impressive win of the year and I’m not sure how they are not favored at home in this game. Minnesota is having a very good year but Case Keenum as a road favorite against a .500 or above team just feels like a lot to answer.

It does not look like Washington will get LT Trent Williams back for this game though he did particpate in practiceon limited basis on Friday but they do expect to have Brandon Scherff and Sean Lauvau back on the offensive line and Jamison Crowder back at receiver. If all of those players play there is no way that Washington shouldn’t be favored in this game never mind getting 2.5.

Minnesota is coming off of a bye, Sam Bradford will now miss the rest of the year with his knee injury and Teddy Bridgewater is back practicing. One of the interesting thing about the Vikings season is they just haven’t played anyone we know is good since week 2 vs the Steelers. They played the packers but that was the game that Rodgers got hurt in the 1st Q. Besides that game they have played, the Bears, Browns, Ravens, Bucs and Lions. Not exactly a murderers row. 

Game 4:Cle +10.5 @ Det

Bet% Cle 34% Det66%

The Browns are 0-8 and they aren’t likley to win a game anytime soon. I could find some matchup that favors the Browns and say that is the reason to take them this week but honestly it’s really simple and has nothing to do with ny matchup that favors the Browns. Cleveland is desperate to win, the mangement spent the last few weeks downplaying the season and statng they are still on track. Coming  off their bye week you expect a big effort and this week they play a Lions team coming off of 2 straight prime time games so this is a natural let down spot. The Lions passing game has been great the last few weeks but if they don’t continue to play at that level his week then the rest of this tem isn’t good enough to cover double digits. 
Cleveland hs the talent on defense to create some turnovers and stay in this game but it’s hard to trust the offense to do anything so I’m not sure they can really win straight up but I do think they can get close here.

Week 9 Picks

Last week was our worst week of the year and the overall record took a big hit as a result. It was a big week for favorites last week so hopefully we see that pendulum swing back this week. Either way, the NFL is a week to week league for the teams and we have to look at the same way when betting. Gotta keep it moving.

2017: 22-20

LW: 1-5

Game 1: Ind @ Hou  -6.5

Bet% Ind 54% Hou 46%

This game was at Houston -13 before the Desean Watson injury and as of Tuesday 68% of  bets were on the Texans. Watson was not  just the hottest QB in the league but also one of the most popular so not surprising to see so many bettors jump off the Texans here  and on to the Colts.  Maybe Watson is worth a  TD more than Savage in some games but against one of the worst defenses in the league I think the adjustment is too much and we are getting value here.   (more…)

Week 8 Review: 1-5

Week 8 was a disaster. After middling results in October the final week was one where everything that could go wrong did. Weeks like this are going to happen, they happen every year, you are going to have weeks where the breaks go your way and others where they don’t. You know that going in but it doesn’t make it any easier.

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2017: 22-20

Week 8: 1 Win 5 Losses

week 8 Review

What Went Right

  • Colts-Bengals: The only win of the week was the over 41.5 here. The game didn’t go the way I expected as the Bengals had much more trouble scoring than I thought they would but the Colts made up for it. The takeaway is anytime we can get a bottom 5 defense and total around 40 things don’t have to go perfect to get the over.

What Went Wrong

  • The Bad Luck Game: We lost the Chargers Pats by 0.5 and this was the one where we got hit with horrible luck. there was a safety the Chargers took on a punt, literally a play I have never seen before. There was also a play at 15-7 where LA was in FG range @ NE 29, Rivers rolled out, patted the ball which he has probably done 5000 times in his career but this time it caused him to fumble, Chargers recovered after the play lost 20 yards and then punted. Seriously.
  • Weather: The Panthers – Bucs game was one of the lowest scoring games of the week which certainly not the way I saw this game going. The game featured major winds which hampered the passing games and Winston also took a hit that aggravated his shoulder injury.
  • Desaun Watson: Seattle won but didn’t cover here, but regardless I was way off on how I though that defense would handle the rookie QB. He was spectacular and played one of the best games by an opposing QB in Seattle in the last 4 or 5 years. Couldn’t have been more wrong on that game.
  • Washington Injuries: Read the Injury Reports! Read the Injury Reports!        The Washington -Cowboys game is the one I am most upset at myself for betting and I think the most easily avoidable loss. I talk a lot about offensive line injuries and their importance and also the importance of cluster injuries. When there are cluster injuries on the offensive line? That should at the very least be a giant red light to bet on if not a reason to bet on the opposition. Washington started this game without both starting tackles and their starting center. In a situation like that you just can’t bet on that team unless you know something about the backups. That is why this line went to 3 and I should have checked their status before betting. Reall dumb mistake.

Week 8 Picks

The last couple of weeks have resulted in mostly middling results, some of that is due to luck or lack there of but also I think there have been some mistakes made and allowing myself to be swayed by some tough results. It’s funny how easy it is to fall into old bad habits but that is the point of this blog, to catch myself when that happens.

2017: 21-15

Week 7: 3-3

Game 1: Ind @ Cin Over41.5

Bet% Over 83% Under 17%

This game opened with one of the lowest totals of the week despite the fact that the Colts give up just under 31 points per game and have had their totals go over in 5 of 7 games. I like the Bengals to have a big game on offense this week but the -11 on spread is too rich so playing the over feels like the best bet.

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Week 7 Review: 3-3

NFL betting is 50% skill and preparation and 100% luck. At least that’s what it feels like in so many games where the ATS result seems to come down to 1 or 2 plays that can go either way. Gill Alexander @beatingthebook compares NFL betting to plinko the old Price is Right game and I’m not sure there has ever been a better analogy for NFL betting, my card this week certainly had some plinko finishes that lead to blah 3-3 result.

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2017: 21-15

Week 7 Results: 3 Wins 3 Losses

Week 7 Review

What Went Right (more…)

Week 7 Picks

If Week 6 taught us anything or reaffirmed anything it is that the NFL is a week to week league. Say that 5 times to yourself like a mantra, “The NFL is a Week to Week League” last week we saw 2 double digit underdogs, Miami and the Giants, win games straight up. The Jets and 49ers just missed making it 4 big dogs winning straight up. We saw undefeated KC lose their first game at home to the Steelers who were blown out at home the previous week by the Jags. Like I said the NFL is a week to week league.

It’s the 20th anniversary of The Firm. Crazy.

2017: 18-12

Week 6: 3-2

Game 1: Bal @ Min Under 39.5

Bet% Over 41% Under 59%

Betting unders on games where the total is under 40 seems very tough to pull the trigger on and for me I usually stay off those games but I went back and looked at totals that closed 40.5 and lower this season and unders went 9-6 in those 15 games.

I’m not sure there is an offense that looks more anaemic than the Ravens do, they are 26th in DVOA on offense, 31st in passer rating, 31st in yards per pass attempt and 31st in explosive plays. Last week the Ravens scored 24 but 14 of them came from special teams TDs. Week 5 was their best offensive game vs the Raiders who are 28th in defense and even in that game they needed a defensive TD. (more…)

Week 6 Review: 3-2

Week 6 was a huge week for underdogs with 11 dogs covering the number and 9 of them winning straight up, including 2 double digit dogs, NYG and Mia. We did get back to a winning week but when you see a week with that many dogs cashing you want a bigger week than 3-2 but obviously much better than last week.

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2017: 18-12

Week 6 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Week 6 review 2017 (more…)

Week 6 Picks: Keep Firing

Week 5 was a tough one and a good reminder that when handicapping we are trying to predict the most likely game scripts and results but we are always vulnerable to randomness. So for me the teaser loss last week is the one that really hurts. I should have trusted my cap and played Panthers straight, over the long term having a week like that go 2-3 rather than 1-4 makes a big difference. If the process is right we can’t let results impact us too much and got to keep firing.

2017: 15-10

Week 5: 1-4

Game 1: Cle +10 @ Hou

Bet%: Cle 40% Hou%

This feels like the perfect week to be on Cleveland and also the perfect week to fade Houston, add those together and I think there is a legitimate shot for the Browns to pull out a big upset and get their 1st win. Whether they do or not 10 points here is great value. (more…)