Week 13 NFL Picks

Last week was a good week but should have been so much better, really the theme of the season so far. 2 of the losses came in the same game and I should have stayed off that Monday Nighter but was able to make up for those with some in game bets and the Washington ML helped as well.

LW: 4-3

2019: 30-28-1

Game 1: Buf @ Dal Over 46.5

Bet% Over 42% Under 58%

This line opened at 45 and has been bet up and I totally agree with the move. I think we are getting some value based on the games last week which both were way under the total. I was on the over in the Buf-Den game last week and it never came close because of 2 reasons; 1) Weather- The conditions in Buffalo were much windier than had been expected and as a result Denver really struggled passing the ball 2) Brandon Allen was terrible, the wind definitely impacted Brandon Allen much more than Josh Allen, as Brandon Allen finished with a QBR of 6, he simply didn’t have the arm strength to play in those conditions. We also had very difficult conditions in New England last week which the Cowboys really struggled with and as a result I think this line opened about 3 points lower than it should have.

Dallas should be able to run on the Bills, Buffalo is 26th vs the run and Dallas should be able to exploit that with Elliott and also then use play action. Buffalo should also have success against the Cowboys 19th ranked defense especially with the changes they have made the last 2 weeks. Warren Sharp is the only person I have seen point this out but since moving their OC upstairs, the Bills are using 11 personnel over 90% of time up almost 30% and have also increased their pace of play dramatically. Both teams get matchups they can exploit with perfect conditions in Dallas, I think this game gets into the 50’s.

Game 2: GB @ NYG +6.5

Bet%: GB 88% 12%

This game will probably be one of the biggest needs for the books but they new that when they opened it under a TD. This game opened at GB -6.5 and has never come close to 7 and in fact has dropped to 6 at few points. Not only are over 80% of bets on GB, by keeping it under a TD this will be one of the most havily teased games and yet the books have not moved it to protect themselves so why are they so comfortable needing the Giants? Lets start with the Packers, they have lost their last 2 road games and their defense continues to drop in overall rankings, they are 24th in DVOA, they are giving up 6.1 yards per play which is 29th and their rush defense is 28th. It is very difficult to cover a number this large on the road with a bottom 7 or 8 defense and that is how GB is playing over the last half of the season. The Giants have not been able to get Barkley going the last few weeks but this should be a big week for the Giants RB. The thing you like about betting the Giants as underdogs is they have made Daniel Jones development their top priority so even in games where they are down big, they let want Jones out there playing and trying to get them back in the game which is why they have had so many late backdoor covers.  The Packers are being treated as one of the best teams in the conference with this line and they are probably much closer to a middle of the pack team because of their defense.

Game 3: Phi -10 @ Mia

Bet% Phi 61% 39%

The Eagles are coming off of their 2 worst offensive performances and the bloom has come off of Carson Wentz both nationally and locally as a result. In last week’s game vs the Seahawks the Eagles were missing their WR1, WR2, WR3, their All Pro RT and RG and also their RB1. Somehow they were still in that game late because the defense was able to keep Seattle out of the endzone for the most part. The impact of missing that many starters can’t be overstated. The Dan Orlovsky tweet above really does a great job of showing how impactful the losses of Jeffrey and Agholor were. Now that Wentz has 2 starters at WR back, this game vs Miami will be only the 3rd game of the season where the Eagles will have the majority of their receivers and secondary healthy, the other 2 were wins in Buffalo and vs Chicago. With the Cowboys loss on Thursday the Eagles are in the drivers seat for the division and I expect the offense to use this game as a get right spot, Alshon Jeffrey, Agholor, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks will all be back.  The Eagles defense has been one of the best units in the league the last 4 weeks and I expect them to continue vs Fitzpatrick especially because they don’t have to worry about the Miami run game.

Game 4: Ten +1.5 @ Ind

Bet% 44% Ind 56%

So this bet is based on a lesson learned last week with the Eagles Seattle game. Last week was a great spot for the Eagles but they had so many cluster injuries on the offense that players were forced into positions they had not been in all year and it showed in really subtle but critical ways. The Dan Orlovsky tweet really shows how precise routes are and being a little off or on a different page really shows up in critical spots. The Colts will be without their top 3 WRs, star WR TY Hilton, Devin Funches and most likely Paris Campbell, they will also be without TE Eric Ebron, starting RB Marlon Mack and #3 TE has a broken thumb. That is a lot o=to overcome for Brisett and the Colts offense. The Titans have been playing really well since Tanehill took over at QB, they are 4-1 in the 5 games he has started though all 4 wins came at home, they have scored at least 20 in each of those 5 games. If the Titans score 20 in this game they will win straight up, I can’t see the Colts getting more than that.

Game 5: Cle -2.5 @ Pit

Bet% Cle 69% Pit 31%

The Steelers are another team with major pieces missing on offense this week as they will be without JuJu Smith Schuster, James Connor is doubtful, Pouncey is still suspended and Devlin Hodges who started as their #3 QB will be starting. The Steelers managed to win despite their offense for about a month with incredible plays from their defense which seemed to include a Minka Fitzpatrick TD every week. Scoring from defense and special teams is not something that you can count on and it feels like we are now seeing Pittsburgh come back to reality, in the last 3 weeks the Steelers have scored 17, 7 and 16. The Browns seem to  have found some confidence in the last couple of weeks, they have won 3 straight and scored 21 vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago and 41 last week. 3 weeks is also how long Kareem Hunt has been on the active roster and I do think there is correlation, Hunt gives them another big weapon and allows Mayfield to get the ball out quickly. There will be a lot of talk about Myles Garret and Mason Raymond and the debacle on Thursday night but neither player will be in his game and I just think that the Browns will know they can go in and overwhelm this version of the Steelers.

Game 6: Min +3 @ Sea

Bet% Min 31% Sea 69%

Week 13 has been a disaster so far but this is about the long haul and if you think there is value on the board you have to keep firing. I like the Vikings in this game and think they have a very good shot to win straight up. These teams are very even, #7 and 8 by DVOA but by point differential the Vikings are +84 while Seattle is +29. Seattle has been in very close games that they have needed to pull out late against lesser competition like ATL, CIN, CLE and TB. This just feels like a spot for the Vikings to get an upset.

Week 12 NFL Picks

Last week was another 2-2 week, the Colts under was the swing game we had a chance to have a winning week but the Jags late score ended that. This week’s card started with me not really liking anything on Monday and by Friday I liked half the card. GL

2019 Nfl Football GIF by NFL

LW: 2-2

2019: 26-25-1

Game 1: Den @ Buf Over 37

Bet% Over 70% Under 30%

The first 2 bets this week are in the same game. We start off with the total, usually a total this low has 2 basically broken offenses and 1 or 2 great defenses, while there is a game on this week’s card that futs that description, this isn’t it. Lets start off wit the defences, neither of these defenses are playing as well as they did last year, Broncos are 9th in DVOA, Bills are 14th. When the Broncos are on offense I think they are going to have success running the ball, they have 2 quality backs in Freeman and Lindsay and are 10th in rushing DVOA. Meanwhile the Bills are one of the worst run defenses in the league, they rank 27th, the Browns rushed for 147 a few weeks ago and the Eagles got over 200. I see Denver having a similar day. Josh Allen should also have success in this game especially with Josh Brown, the Broncos have given up 7.2 yards per pass att in their last 3, last week they gave up 121 to Stefon Diggs in the 2nd half of that game, I think both teams will get into the 20’s.

Game 2: Den +4 @ Buf

Bet% Den 47 % Buf 53%

No need to write things twice so as discussed above I think both teams will have success on offense and be able to score points, I expect a 23-20 game and I think Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the game. Denver will be able to control the game with their run game and put Allen into position to make big plays to Sutton. In the end I am not sure that these teams aren’t basically the same teams, FO has Denver ranked 8 spots higher by DVOA than Buffalo despite their records. Buffalo has killed the bad teams on their schedule, (Miami twice, Was, Giants, Jets and Bengals but haven’t been great against the good teams. Denver has been in most games and lost in the end even against good teams like Minny, GB and Indy.

Game 3: Pit @ Cin Under 38

Bet% Over 23% Under 77%

In the Buf – Den game I mentioned that totals under 40 are usually reserved for games with 2 broken offenses and at least 1 dominant defense and that’s exactly what we have and why I am going under. Lets start with the offenses we have two backup QB’s leading the 28th and 29th ranked offenses. For the Steelers not only has the offense been a disaster with Mason Raymond at QB but this week they will be without arguably their 3 best players on offense, Juju Smith-Schuster and James Connor due to injury and C Marquise Pouncey due to suspension. The Bengals meanwhile have not topped 17 points in 5 weeks, the last 2 weeks with Finley at QB they have combined for 23 points and this week they get one of the hottest defensive teams in the league. The Steelers have moved up to 3rd in defensive DVOA, 5th vs the pass and 8th vs the run. These two teams met in week 4 and the Steelers won 27-3 in a game that Steelers pulled out a bunch of trick plays with Jaylen Samuels at QB, Bengals should be ready for those plays this time.

Game 4: Det @ Was +4

Bet% Det 80% Was 20%

Washington is obviously a bad team, they have 1 win, a point differential of -128 and are lead by a rookie QB that nobody believes in including the former head coach that drafted him so it makes sense that nobody wants to bet on them this week. That being said, this line is crazy, we have the 3 win Lions, with Jeff Driskel at QB , down to their 3rd string QB favorites on the road of 3.5-4 points. Last week the Washington defense had a very tough game vs the Jets but they have played pretty well in the last month, they held the 49ers to 9 and the Vikings to 19 points. I think the Washington defense can lead them to a win here and Haskins is playing in his 3rd game and probably the easiest defense he has faced so again I think there is a chance for him to play his best game here. Washington might not win another game this year but I think they have a real shot to win here.

Game 6 Sea @ Phi – * Edit NO PLAY

Bet% Sea 77% Phi 23%

With Alshon Jeffrey Inactive, I am no longer betting Eagles. Cluster injuries at WR make this a really difficult game to bet Eagles. – No Play

One of the things most important when betting NFL games is to not be overly impacted by the most recent results. Last week we saw the Seahawks on MNF and beat the previously undefeated 49ers in a thrilling game while the Eagles lost at home to the Patriots with their worst offensive performance of the year. Seattle is one of 7 teams with at least 8 wins, but when you dig a little deeper they have really not been an elite team, their point differential is +21 the next closest 8 win team is New Orleans at +39, in fact 3 teams with 6 wins, (Indy,Dal, LAR) all have larger point differentials than Seattle. Seattle is 7-1 in 1 score games, we know these close games usually tend to have teams somewhere around .500 so Seattle has been a little lucky by results. As for the Eagles the defense is the healthiest, they have been all year, and over the last 3 weeks they have given up 44 points, 4.2 yards per play and a passer rating of 75.9. The issue for the Eagles is on offense, the offense is devoid of game breakers and they are forced to put together long drives to score. The Eagles will get Alshon Jeffrey back and unlike last week where they played the leagues best pass defense, this week they get a pass defense that is much more middle of the road. The Eagles if they win this game set themselves up to win the division because they have 4 very winnable games after this leading into the showdown vs Dallas.

Game 5: GB @ SF -3

Bet% GB 58% SF 42%

*I have not bet this game yet and will wait until I know the actives. If George Kittle plays, I will be on the 49ers.

This is really all about line value, at -3 we are saying these 2 teams are equal and the 49ers are getting 3 points for home field. I think the 49ers should be at least 1.5 point favorites on a neutral field and maybe as much as 2.5 so this line should be between 4.5-5.5. The big advantage the 49ers have in this game is they are at their best when they can run the ball, their offense starts with running and play action and the Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. GB is 28th in DVOA vs the run and giving up 4.8 yards per rush att, I fully expect Shanahan to be able to exploit the Packers defense.

Game 6: Oak @ NYJ +3.5

Bet% Oak 57% NYJ 43%


Adding the Jets to the card, line has been moving towards 3.5 all morning and now was able to lock in at -112. This is bad spot for the Raiders, traveling West to East for early start against a team you should beat with the Chiefs on deck for a huge divisional game.

Game 7: Bal @ LAR +4

Bet% Bal 70% 30%

Adding a MNF play with the Rams, this is really just beating the number. This game is probably the most juiced kine on the card because there is no team people want to bet on more than the Ravens. There are a few 4’s andbits top much to pass on. This is a must win for the Rams if they are going to make playoffs, getting 4 at home is just too much value to pass.

Week 11 NFL Picks

The grind continued last week, we got off to a good start with Bears and Browns but the Bengals were never in the Ravens game and the Rams got screwed on one of the worst fumble calls vs Pittsburgh and for the second straight week a defensive TD from the Steelers was the difference in a win and loss for us.

LW: 3-2

2019: 24-23-1

Game 1: Buf @ Mia +6.5

Bet% Buf 58% Mia 42%

I have seen some sharps’ on both sides of this game but I do not see how the Bills can be favored almost a TD on the road. Miami has not only won 2 straight games but in the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago, the first start after Fitzpatrick got the starting job again, the Dolphins led the game after 3 quarters 14-9. The Bills are 24th in DVOA, the passing offense continues to be an issue at 28th in DVOA in fact with Fitzpatrick we are getting the QB playing much better this year, Josh Allen is 29th in QBR with Fitzmagic is 8th. (more…)

Week 10 NFL Picks

Last week was one of those weeks where you think do everything right and the Football Plinko gods come down and snatch victory away in the most painful crazy ways. The Colts overcame losing their starting QB, won by boxscore but gave up a pick 6 and then missed the game winning FG because the laces were out on the ball. TB was in position to win all game, Seattle misses a GWG FG end of regulation which would have given the cover, get the ball in OT and score a TD. It was a cruel, cruel week.

LW: 1-3-1

2019: 21-21-1

Game 1: Buf @ Cle -2.5

Bet% Buf 60% Cle 40%

Our week 10 starts the same as week 9 with the Cleveland Brown in what is a lesser spot and worse line. Yay? This is probably the last time we can keep doing this but like last week this is a spot that the Browns have to win if they have any chance of salvaging their season. One of the things that jumped out to me when looking at this matchup was that while the Browns are 2-6 and the Bills are 6-2 in DVOA Cleveland is ranked one higher 24 to 25. The Bills are not an elite team and this line is making it too easy to bet against the Browns. The Bills have feasted on bad teams and lost to the good ones this year and by all indications the Browns have been a bad team but I do think they are the more talented team. Browns had every opportunity to win last week but went 1-5 in the redzone and gave up a couple of big plays to Denver. The one thing we know the Browns can do on offense is run they are 13th in DVOA, the Bills defense is terrible vs the run, 30th in DVOA, if the Browns can be better in the redzone I think they win this game by a TD. (more…)

Week 9 NFL Picks

Got back on the plus side last week with some close calls on the Giants, Dolphins plus we got Eagles winning straight up. I was dead wrong on the Panthers – 49ers game but the Texans-Raiders game was the right call and had every opportunity to get over yet fell just short. I like this week’s card so lets hope to get a +2 or 3 week.

LW: 3-2

2019: 21-19

Game 1: Cle +1.5 @ Den

Bet% Cle 39% Den 61%

Cle +1.5 (more…)

Week 8 Picks

We had another rough week last week, there were a couple of of mistakes particularly MNF where all week I liked the under and then at the last moment took the Jets instead. We got unlucky with a couple of plays like the SEA-Hou Over with missed FGs and even Oakland had a chance to go up late in 1st half but fumbled in endzone leading to a 14 point and then we had games like the Eagles and the Giants that were just dead DOA.

LW: 2-5

2019: 18-17

Game 1: Mia +14.5 @ Pit

Bet%: Mia 78% Pit 22%

This is the last game on this week’s card but the first one that I bet this week, The Pittsburgh Steelers at 2 wins, with a back up QB coming off of an injury and in fact Miami has the better QBS and yet the Steelers are 2 TD plus favorites? I know the spreads of double digits are normal against Miami and in the first 4 weeks those favs cashed easily but this one just makes no sense. Here are the QB’s Miami faced in the first 4 weeks: Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Phillip Rivers, the last 2 weeks vs Washington and Buffalo Miami has been very competitive and in position to win outright. Last week my biggest regret was not betting Miami after the QB change was announced and the line didn’t change. Fitzpatrick is a QB that has won a lot of games in the NFL vs Rosen who is really struggling to find his way like a lot of young QBs. Fitzpatrick is always capable of a 4 INT game and if that happens the Steelers will cover but he can also easily outplay Mason Rudolph and be very much in this game. I also like Pittsburgh coming off of a bye and into a game where they are giant favorites. (more…)

Week 7 NFL Picks

LW: 1-4

Fail Fly Eagles Fly GIF by Lauren Wilcox

2019: 16-12

Game 1: KC -3 @ Den

Bet% : KC 75% 25%

All the sharp and professional money is on the Broncos, this line opened at 4.5 and has been bet down to 3. The Bet%, sharp money all points to 1 side but I just cant pass up this price for KC. Even after 2 straight losses, Chiefs are still 3rd in DVOA, after 2 straight wins the Broncos are 18th. Denver beat Mariota and Tanehill last week, they beat Phillip Rivers and the decimated Chargers the week before and have faced mostly bottom 10 QBs this year outside of Aaron Rodgers. This is a super public play, the money is on other side but I cant imagine getting Chiefs this cheap again so I will bite.

Game 2: Oak +6 (-115) @ GB

Bet% Oak 54% GB 46%

When betting an underdog you generally want to see at least one avenue, one matchup that could get the win straight up and I think we have that in this matchup. The Packers are clearly the better team, 7th in DVOA and +27 in point differential vs 18th in DVOA for the Raiders and -20. The one area the Packers have really struggled is the against the run, they are 26th vs the run in DVOA and their Dline is 30th. For the Raiders offense, their strength has been the run game with rookie Jacobs they are 3rd in DVOA and they have played some good defenses in the Vikings, Bronco’s, Bears and Colts.

For Oakland to be able to grind out the Packers they need to stay close enough to be able to keep running and that is where the Packers’ cluster injuries help Oakland. GB’s top WR Devante Adams is expected to miss this game and both Allison and Valdes Scantling have been injured this week so even if they play it’s hard to expect them to be close to 100%. It is very likely we see the Packers #4 and 5 receivers get a lot of plays in this game and its hard to see that going great. We also get a schedule advantage here with Oakland as they are coming off of a bye while the Packers are on a short week after playing on MNF.

* I bet this early in the week and line moved, would play at 4.5 but probably not under that

Game 3: Ari @ NYG -3

Bet% Ari 31% NYG 69%

These 2 teams are ranked 28th and 29th in DVOA but I think there is value here on the Giants based on the fact that they are getting their 2 best players back on offense with Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram and the fact that they have played a much tougher schedule than the Cardinals have. The Cardinals have won 2 straight games but against 2 of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Falcons and Bengals. The Giants in the last 2 weeks have faced the Patriots and Vikings and in their first 6 games the have faced 3 of the top 5 teams in DVOA.

This will be the easiest run defense the Giants have faced this year so it is a great landing spot for Barkley’s first game back but for the Cardinals David Johnson has been banged up and the Giants have been pretty good vs the run at 13th, Arizona is 25th. Finally we get a schedule advantage here as the Giants are coming off of 10 days rest after playing on TNF last week while Arizona has to flight East to West and play the early game for the 2nd time in 3 weeks.

Game 4: Phi +3 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 69% Dal 31%

As of Friday it seems like all of the Cowboys injured players specifically, Cooper, Smith and Collins are all expected to play but I still think the Eagles will have the advantage in this game. As improved as the Cowboys will be from getting back Cooper and their tackles the Eagles will be immeasurably improved by getting both Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby back for this game. The Eagles secondary has been a mess so far this season, between miscommunication to lack of confidence from players like Sidney Jones, opponents have been able to get big plays in the pass game whenever they needed them. Mills and Darby should at the every least make the Cowboys put together drives.

The big advantage in this game is that whole everyone has discussed the Cowboys regression on offense the last 3 weeks the problems are really on their defense and Cooper and Smith won’t help there. Dallas is 25th on defense, 23rd vs the pass and 19th vs the run so Eagles should be able to move the ball however they chose. On the flip side we have heard talk about getting Zeke more touches and if Cooper isn’t 100% I expect that to be a focus. The Eagles are 2nd vs the run and 13th overall and as I mentioned above I expect the Eagles defense vs the pass to improve with the return of their corners. There is also a  revenge factor here, the Cowboys swept the Eagles last year including a crazy OT game in Dallas last year where the Eagles got robbed on 2 huge pays including a TD wiped out because of a facemask call on Dallas Goddard who had the ball and scored.

Game 5: Hou @ Ind pk

Bet% Hou 50% Ind 50%

 A big divisional game in Indy who is coming off a bye and the be came at the exact right time for the Colts. The Colts have had some key injuries early in the year but for this game they are getting arguably their best players on offense, T.Y Hilton and defense Darius Leonard back. I think the Colts have a couple of advantages in this game, the key on defense will probably be getting pressure on Watson. Houston has not given up a sack the last 2 games but is still 25th in adjusted sack rate, so are the last 2 games an indication of improved line play or a product of playing the Chiefs and Falcons? I’m guessing the latter. Houston lost Titus Howard to injury so the depth of that line will be tested. T

This is a good schedule spot for the Colts, they are coming off a bye while Houston is playing their second straight road game and is coming off of their biggest win of the season in KC last week. The Colts Offensive line has been one of the best in the league so far, they are 4th in adjusted sack rate and if they can get the run game going I can see this game playing out similar to the Panthers Houston game 3 weeks ago where Carolina won 16-10. Frank Reich also seems to have Bill O’Brien’s number after winning the last 3 head to head.


Game 6: Bal @ Sea Over 48.5

Bet% Over 68% Under 32%

These are not the Ravens and Seahawks we have become accustomed to seeing through the years, there is no more Legion of Boom and there is no more historic Raven defense, these are both offense first teams. In this game we have the #3 and #4 offenses, the Ravens are the #1 run offense behind Lamar Jackson and Seattle is the #1 Pass offense behind Russell Wilson and both are facing the #21 ranked run and pass defenses. Seattle has seen 5 of their 6 games this season go over and the Ravens have scored 25 or more in every game except 1, last week they only got 23 in a game they controlled start to finish vs the Bengals. Both these defenses are bottom 5 in adjusted sack rate so the QB’s should feel comfortable and both these teams have been good at avoiding turnovers with 6 and 7 respectively, turnovers kill over bets so having 2 teams that protect the ball should help push this game over.

Game 7: NE @ NYJ +10

Bet% NE 61% NYJ 39%

Another tough Sunday but you gotta just keep trucking on and hope that taking the right side pays off. Here I think the Jets are getting a lot of value at 10 due to the injuries on the Patriots. NE has not been a good run team, 18th in DVOA and 28th in Yards per attempt, yet it feels like they will need good play out of this unit to win big in MNF. The NE passing game will be without Josh Gordon this week leaving them with Eddleman, Dorsett and not a lot else. The Jets get CJ Mosely back on defense this week for the first time since week 1 and I think that unit gets a boost but really the defense has been fine this year 16th in DVOA. Being home on MNF for what will probably be heir most marquee game this year, I think the defense can really hang with this injured Patriots group and the offense looked completely different with Darnold. Really like this spot.



Week 6 NFL Picks

LW: 4-1

2019: 15-8

Carolina Panthers Christian Mccaffrey GIF - CarolinaPanthers ChristianMccaffrey Touchdown GIFs

Game 1: Cin +12 @ Bal

Bet%: Cin 53% Bal47%

I was on the Bengals last week and new very early I was on wrong side and looking back it is probably the type of bet its best to stay away from. Last week we needed a very bad Bengals team to not just win their first game vs the equally bad Cardinals but also do it by ore tan a FG, that is a big ask of a bad team. This week the Bengals are still a very bad team, 31st in DVOA, but the ask is to not lose by 2 TDs, which seems much more doable. (more…)

Week 5 NFL Picks

Last Week: 3-2

2019: 11-7

Philadelphia Eagles Football GIF by NFL

Game 1: Ari @ Cin-3

Bet% Ari 70% Cin 30%

These are objectively two of the worst teams in the league and statistically there is not a lot to separate them, ex in DVOA Arizona is 30th and the Bengals are 31st. For me the reason to bet the Bengals is just the spot. The Bengals played one of the worst games of the season on national TV on Monday Night, they couldn’t have looked worse and everyone saw it. The result of that game is we have 70% of bets on the winless Cardinals this week, on the road, a west coast team flying across country and playing in the early game. The Bengals have 2 games they were in position to win, week 1 in Seattle and week 3 in Buffalo, they lead both games 17-14 in the 2nd half before losing. That Buffalo loss followed a dismal home game vs the 49ers where Cincinnati got blown out 41-17, so we have seen the Bengals follow up a terrible performance with one of their best. The Bengals are home after 2 straight road games and go back on road next week, this has to be a circle game to get their coach is first win. (more…)

Week 4 NFL Picks

LW: 2-2

2019 Season: 8-5

TNF: Phi +6 (-120) @ GB

Bet% Phi 33% GB 67%

I bet this game on Tuesday when the line was 5.5 and bought the extra half point to take it to 6.


As of Thursday afternoon this line has been dropping and is now mostly 3.5. I wouldn’t have bet this game under 4 because I do think the value is gone. That being said, I bet this game when Alshon Jeffrey was listed as practicing, even if he is not a 100% he will help take attention away from Zach Ertz. This isn’t a must win but the Eagles are getting close to desperate time especially when you look at the upcoming schedule. Eagles are  0-3 against the spread and the Packers are 3-0, Pederson is 4-0 on TNF. The Packers are easily the best defense the Eagles have played so far but Wentz is also likely the most dangerous QB the Packers have played. The first half will be a good indicator of this game, The Packers have been great in 1st half the Eagles are one of the lowest scoring 1st half teams. If Eagles can stay close early they will have a chance to win, if Packers get out early then we are probably left hoping for a back door cover.

Sunday Picks

Game 2: Car +5 @ Hou

Bet% Car 35% Hou 65%

The Panthers are one of the most interesting teams n the league. They have upgraded the talent level on offense and defense the last 2 years and last year started out 6-2 before Cam got hurt and the season fell apart. This year they once again looked like one of the most talented teams in the NFC but lost the first 2 games because Newton was clearly not over the foot injury he suffered in the preseason. Last week with a healthy QB the Panthers once again showed the form they did last year. While I don’t expect Kyle Allen to have a 4TD game, the Panthers should be able to move the ball and put up points.

The biggest mismatch in this game may be the Panthers Dline vs the Texans offensive line, the Texans line is 30th in adjusted sack rate and the Panthers defensive line is 4th. The Panthers line can control this game and cause havoc for Desaun Watson, if they get create a turnover or two they can win this game outright.

Game 3: Ten @ Atl -3.5

Bet% Ten 50% Atl 50%

In a game of 1 win teams I am taking not only the more talented team but also the one that plays much better at home. Atlanta played a terrible game in their opener but then beat the Eagles at home on SNF and last week lost 27-24 at Indy in a game they put up almost 400 yards of offense and 7.4 yards per play. The Titans played that same Colts team the week previous at home and put up 243 yards or 4.3 per play. Last week vs the Jags, Marcus Mariotta averaged 5.1 yards per att and was sacked 9 times.

I fully expect the Falcons offense to be able to score in this game even though the Titans defense is pretty good. Tennessee is 12th in defensive DVOA, 7th in Yards per pass attempt at 5.9 but on the road they have given up 6.6. The Titans are clearly much more comfortable leading with the run, if Atlanta can scores the way they are capable of, Tennessee will be forced to put the game in Mariotta’s hands and I can’t see him keeping up.

Game 4: TB +9.5 @ LAR

Bet% TB 47% LAR 53%

There is not a lot to breakdown here, this is really just a bet on the very large number and the schedule spot for the Rams. The Rams are 3-0 but haven’t been blowing teams out or putting up monster number the way they did but still, 3-0 is 3-0. If you look at the Rams schedule, 2 weeks ago they played the Saints in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, last week they played in primetime on SNF and next week the Rams play divisional rival Seattle on TNF in Seattle. We know sometimes teams starting looking ahead to the Thursdays games even doing some prep for that game during the previous week well if there was ever a game you might take some time away from it, the a home game vs Tamp Bay would be it.

With the Bucs we get 2 things you like in this matchup, first is a passing game very capable of scoring points, Mike Evans broke out with 3 TDs last week and while Winston has lost plenty of games with interceptions with a number this big you want a guy capable of the plus plays because we have some margin on the downside. The other thing we get with the Bucs is a very good run defense so far this year. TB is giving up 3 yards per att, which is 2nd in the league, and they have faced McCafrey, Barkley and the 49ers who have one of the best designed run games in the league. We know the Rams base everything off the run with play action so that run defense could be key here.

Game 5: Jax @ Den -2.5

Bet% Jax 49% Den 51%

This feels like a great spot for the Broncos to get their first win of the season. Traditionally Denver has had one of the best home records in September, the altitude is extra difficult for teams to face early in the year when they are still getting into the season. The Jags won their first game of the year last week on TNF and rookie Gardner Minshew had his moment in the sun, he only passed for 200 yards bt had 2 TDs and the Jags won easy. The Broncos defense might not be as good as we thought coming into the season but them having 0 sacks and 0 takeaways is shocking and at some point a team with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is going to break out, this week feels like a perfect spot. The Broncos have faced some very good defenses with Bears and Packers so the Jags defense should not be a big shock and Jalen Ramsey is not expected to play which also helps Denver.