Week 5 Picks

Last week was one of those dream weeks that help make your season. If Tom Brady had not forgot how to complete a pass for 3 quarters we could have gone 7-0 but still had 3 dogs of FG or more win straight up and overall just a fantastic week. We Good over here

Week 4: 6-1

2021: 16-8

Game 1: 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Sea +8 & Vikings -2

I’m have already used the Vikings in 2 teasers and may use them again. Minnesota is 1-3, you can make the case they should be at very least 2-2 but probably could be 3-1. Still they are 1-3 and absolutely needs this game and are going to have one of the biggest advantages in Oline/Dline matches.

Seattle at home is an underdog and a perfect teaser candidate, I think there is a good shot they can win is a huge advanatge to be home on TNF this game but either way this game is likely to be a 1 score game.

Game 2 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Dal -2 & Vikings -2

Using the Vikings again in this one with the Cowboys. Dallas has one of the hottest offenses in the league, they are at home and get the Giants coming off of a dramatic comeback win. It’s early days but Dallas is #2 in DVOA overall this year and I don’t see them tripping up against the Giants.

Game 3: Phi @ Car Over 44.5

I think this total is dependent on what you think of the Panthers defense because I don;t think there is much question that the Eagles defense is a bottom 10 group and Carolina is going to score in this game. In DVOA the Panthers are 4th in defense but early on those rankings do not really account for level of competition and in the first 3 weeks Carolina played the Jets, Texans and a Saints offense that hasn’t hit 200 yards passing. I think Panthers probably have a middle of the pack Defense, Dallas had no problems scoring last week and I think Philly will be able to move the ball as well. I think this game gets into the 50’s pretty easily.

Game 4: Ten-4 @ Jax

The Urban Meyer mess can’t help here but the starting point is from he Jags being one of the worst 3 teams in the league, currently 31 by DVOA. Last week the Titans lost to the Jets in OT but despite missing both their top WRs they still had 430 yards of offense and ran 93 plays. AJ Brown was full particpant on Thursday, with Brown and Henry, Titans should have more than enough to beat this Jags team that has had a lot to deal with this week in terms of distractions.

Game 5: SF +5.5 @ Ari:

This is a game that has a lot of sharp money that has come in on it and it is basically because we have Arizona at the absolute peak of their value, preseason this game was a pick, last week this game was Arizona -2.5 and now it opened 6 after the Cards won again and the 49ers lost at home to Seattle. I don’t downgrade SF with Lance at QB in fact I think the likelihood of a ML win goes up as does the chance they get blown out.

Game 6: GB @ Cin -3

This line has been consistently dropping all week and may end below the 3. The Packers will be without their best and maybe most important defensive player Jaire Alexander and the Bengals can definitely take advantage. The sharp money is clearly playing Bengals in this spot and I think based on the injuries I agree.

Game 7: 2 team 6pt teaser: Dal -1.5 & Bal -1.5

We lost the first teaser with Seattle losing by 9 on TNF so using Dallas again with the Ravens on MNF.

Game 8: Buf @ KC -2.5

Adding the KC game, I am not sure when we will get Patrick Mahomes at home under a FG fav again. This is an overreaction to 2 losses by KC where they had late turnovers that cost them games. KC offense is performing at all time level, Bills have been very good on defense but don’t think it matters much here if the offense has to settle for FGs.

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