Very rough week on week 5, 1-2 with teasers and even the one that cashed needed a miracle finish but ‘Ain’t no pity party for yourself You gotta get up rise for your wealth’ Were on to week 6.
Week 5: 2-5-1
TNF: Game 1: TB @ Phi +7: This line moved from 7.5 to 7 despite majority of bets on the Bucs. TB is coming off of a destruction of the Dolphins and you can see why they would be popular but they have massive injuries in the secondary and the Eagles are team that is as pass heavy as any in the league. I fully expect a high scoring game and the Bucs to be able to score into the 30’s but Hurts and the Eagles offense should be able to keep this within striking range and they have continued to be aggressive late in games even when down big so the backdoor cover is definitely in play.
Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ind : There are games that come on the board where logic for the bet is “Who is this team to be favored by this many points”. The Colts played a very good game on prime time last week, the best of their season, a game the ended up losing and they remain with just 1 win this year. Colts are 24th in DVOA how are they 10.5 points better than anyone? One thing I will say for Houston is that David Culley is an extremely conservative coach who I believe takes a lot of value in being close in games. Culley is not likely to make high leverage calls that could create big swings either way but rather play down the middle and stay in the mix.
Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser– KC -1 @ Was and LAC +8.5 @ Bal – KC is going to have a field day on offense in this game and Washington has enough injuries and the Heineke has enough turnover level play in him that I think KC could jump out big early in this game. If this comes back down to KC -6.5 even money I will be on that as well.
Chargers are playing great football, I like the Ravens to win a close one but we get Herbert at a TD plus and really the only game I like that goes through the 3 and 7.
Game 4: Min -2.5 @ CAR : This number has risen during the week from Min-1 to 2.5 not a huge move but it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets to the 3 on Sunday morning. The Vikings have been extremely unlucky this year with a few huge high leverage mistakes/ calls going against them and as a result they could easily be 4-1. By DVOA the Vikings are 13th overall, getting a healthy Dalvin Cook back and have a bye coming up so I think this is an all out type game. The Panthers meanwhile have a ton of injuries including Christian McCaffrey who early in the week looked like he might play but was instead put on IR. Panthers will also be without Shaq Thompson and the secondary is extremely thin.
Game 5: Ari @ Cle -3 (-120): This feels like the perfect spot to fade the 5-0 Cards. Kyler Murray is a little banged up and we have seen his TD production slip a little the last few weeks. The Browns will be missing Nick Chubb but with Kareem Hunt I don’t see that injury having much impact, the injury I do believe will matter is Arizona losing their starting C Rodney Hudson.
Game 6: KC -6 @ Wsh: Late add, this line dropped Sunday morning, to me this just feels like the low point for the Chiefs and I don’t give any home field advantage to Washington so this is a play for me at this price