Month: December 2021

Week 16 Picks 2022

A very nice bounce back week in week 15 and had the refs not robbed Seattle at the end on a terrible non call we would be another 2 units up.

Week 15: 5-2

2021: 47-43-1

Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt Teaser: GB -1.5 & Buf +8 : Wong teaser, Cleveland has been so shorthanded with both injuries and covid that the season is slipping away, now going on road and playing in Lambo in December is a tough assignment, I like the Packers to win by at least a FG. Buffalo in a revenge spot here vs the Patriots, the wind should be easier to handle and I don’t see this game being over a TD either way.

Game 2: Ind @ Ari -1: This seems like the spot to buy the Cardinals at their absolute bottom after a terrible loss to the Lions and selling the Colts at their absolute top after their win over the Pats. If the Cardinals offense gets going back to their normal level, I don’t trust Wentz to keep pace without a few mistakes.

Game 3: TB @ Car +11.5: The Bucs are on the road missing their top 3 offensive weapons on the season, Godwin, Evans and Fournette, this feels like way too many points and a game the Bucs just try to go in and get out with a win and without pressing too much.

Game 4: LAR @ Min +3.5: This line moved a half point after Dalvin Cook was ruled out and I don’t think Mattison is that much of a negative plus Theilen is active. Rams have had some terrible road games, Minnesota is one of the last real home field advantages, this feels like a coin toss game so getting the hook is big.

Game 5: Chi +7 @ Sea : As an Eagles fan I will never not believe in Nick Foles, not sure how anyone can bet on the Seahawks as a TD favorite and while Fields probably gives a much higher ceiling game, the floor is probably worse than with Foles.

Game 6: Was @ Dallas Under 47: Dallas has played a much slower pace since Dak came back from injury, Washington gets Taylor Heinike back but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets off to a slow start and Washington may also be without Antonio Gibson for this game or at least a less than 100% Gibson. I can see the Dallas defense cause all kinds of problems here.

Week 15 Picks 2021

Last week had 2 of the worst losses I can remember with the Browns blowing a massive lead to a backup QB and end up winning by 2 when I had -2.5 and then the Bills +3.5 losing in OT even when they got the ball first and limiting what should have been a really big week.

LW: 3-2

2021: 42-41-1

Game 1: KC -3 @ LAC – This line was up to 3.5 and touching 4 when injuries on the Chiefs defense to Chris Jones and their secondary brought money back on Chargers. I still like KC, I think the offense has been much better but they have been in games where the defense has played so well that they haven’t needed to push the ball as much. That being said in DVOA the offense is back to 5th and overall the Chiefs are 7th in DVOA and 4th in weighted. I will keep riding the Chiefs here.

Game 2: NE @ IND -2: This feels like a big spot for the Colts, I think the Pats defense is a little overated due to some special circumstances including weather vs Buf and TB and some luck in terms of injuries, I can see the Colts offense having success in this game that they have to have.

Game 3: NE @ IND Over 45.5 : I mentioned above that I think the Pats defense is overated, I think that is true of both defenses in this game and I think both offenses will have success here. This total has been steamed up, opened at 43 and has gone as high as 46 and I think by Saturday night we will see some 47’s.

Game 4: Was @ Phi -4: (Bet Cancelled- Game day Moved)This line is obviously not available anymore with all of the Covid issues WFT is having, I bet this Monday morning but I think I would play it still as long as the number is below 10. The Eagles have actually not played close games in their wins, 5 of their 6 wins have been by double digits and in this game Washington is basically starting a preseason roster.

Game 4: Ten @ Pit ML : A must win game for the Steelers at home and they are the far healthier team in this game, line has moved from Ten as fav to Steelers, like the move and spot for Pittsburgh who is coming off of extra rest.

Game 5: Cin +3 @ Den: In the end I just trust this Bengals offense a lot more than Denver, this line moved from Cin a small fav in look ahead to now Broncos a full 3 because the Bengals lost to SF in OT and the Broncos blew out the Lions? A Lions team that was also decimated by illness? this feels like too much value on Bengals.

Game 6: Was @ Phi -7.5 Rescheduled for Tuesday night, my -4 on Sunday was cancelled and this reopened at 6.5. I waited too long to bet and only got it after the announcement that it was likely that Gibert would start at QB for Was. It does not look like Washington is getting many of their players back from Covid and the Eagles are fully healthy and sound very motivated. Betting a shitty number but I think they win by double digits.

Game 7: Sea +7.5 @ LA Rams : I don’t have much on this game but these teams generally play very tight games and getting over a TD, even with Lockett out seems like value here.

Week 14 Picks 2021

Back to back 2-3 weeks have been painful, last week the 2 big dogs I was on both lost and both the games I scratched off my card on Sunday morning, Seattle and the Pittsburgh both won. It be like that sometimes.

Week 13: 2-3

2021: 39-39-1

Game 1: Pit @ Min -3 (-123) : Didn’t get to post this in morning but bet this game around noon, when the Vikings activated Dalvin Cook.

Game 2: 2 Team 6 point Teaser: Atl +8.5 and Sea -1.5 : Teasers have been absolutely death for me the last month, that has to change at some point here. This was my fav of the Wong teasers, think Falcons will likely win straight up and Seattle gets to play against Davis Mills.

Game 3: SF @ Cin Over 48.5 : The 49ers offense is rolling and they may get Deebo Samuels back, if they do this line will cross 50. one of the thigs that jumped out to e when looking at the Bengals game log is a team has scored 41 points in 4 of the Bengals last 6 games, in one of the 2 games that didn’t happen the final was 34-31 vs the Jets.

Game 4: Buf +3.5 @ TB: Last week was basically a worst case scenario for the Bills, they are not a team that wants to run and they were also hampered by some poor luck in the redzone. Getting the hook here is too good to pass up and I think we could see a show out game for the Bills offense here.

Game 5: Bal @ Cle -2.5 – Fading both Ravens and Steelers after their game last week, not only were Ravens ravaged with injuries but Browns have unprecedented situation playing the same team back to back with bye in between.

Week 13 Picks 2021

I felt really good about last week’s card and 2 of the 3 losses weren’t close. Dogs have been on fire the last month and I will be on a few big ones this week.

LW: 2-3

2021: 37-36-1

Game 1: Phi -6.5 @ NYJ – This is obviously a bad number, I bet it on Thursday after Hurts stated he would be starting which he is no longer expected to do. The line has dropped to 5 with Hurts injury while I would rather have the better number I still think the Eagles offensive line will dominate this game and Minshue is good enough to make the relatively few throws that will be required of him

Game 2: Ind @ Hou +10 : This just feels like a flat spot for the Colts, the last 2 weeks the COlts blew out the Bills and then played an OT game vs the Bucs. Next week the Colts play the Patriots and then the Cardinals, this week vs Houston feels like the ultimate letdown game.

Game 3: 2 Team 6 point teaser: Min -1.5 & Was +7.5 – Minnespta is now 10th in DVOA, Det is 31, THese teams played a close game in their first meeting I just don’t see how the Lions offense keeps up especially with Swift out,

Game 4: TB @ Atl+11: The Buc have been a different team on the road and the Falcons have traditionally played them tough. This is just a lot of points and its not often you get a QB as good Matt Ryan getting over double digits at home.

Game 5: LAC +3 @ Cin – I do not know how you get to 3 in this game, I think the Chargers are the better team and not sure how much you give he Bengal’s homefield. To me this should Cin -1.5 so getting the Chargers at 3, is too good to pass up.