Last week had 2 of the worst losses I can remember with the Browns blowing a massive lead to a backup QB and end up winning by 2 when I had -2.5 and then the Bills +3.5 losing in OT even when they got the ball first and limiting what should have been a really big week.
Game 1: KC -3 @ LAC – This line was up to 3.5 and touching 4 when injuries on the Chiefs defense to Chris Jones and their secondary brought money back on Chargers. I still like KC, I think the offense has been much better but they have been in games where the defense has played so well that they haven’t needed to push the ball as much. That being said in DVOA the offense is back to 5th and overall the Chiefs are 7th in DVOA and 4th in weighted. I will keep riding the Chiefs here.
Game 2: NE @ IND -2: This feels like a big spot for the Colts, I think the Pats defense is a little overated due to some special circumstances including weather vs Buf and TB and some luck in terms of injuries, I can see the Colts offense having success in this game that they have to have.
Game 3: NE @ IND Over 45.5 : I mentioned above that I think the Pats defense is overated, I think that is true of both defenses in this game and I think both offenses will have success here. This total has been steamed up, opened at 43 and has gone as high as 46 and I think by Saturday night we will see some 47’s.
Game 4: Was @ Phi -4: (Bet Cancelled- Game day Moved)This line is obviously not available anymore with all of the Covid issues WFT is having, I bet this Monday morning but I think I would play it still as long as the number is below 10. The Eagles have actually not played close games in their wins, 5 of their 6 wins have been by double digits and in this game Washington is basically starting a preseason roster.
Game 4: Ten @ Pit ML : A must win game for the Steelers at home and they are the far healthier team in this game, line has moved from Ten as fav to Steelers, like the move and spot for Pittsburgh who is coming off of extra rest.
Game 5: Cin +3 @ Den: In the end I just trust this Bengals offense a lot more than Denver, this line moved from Cin a small fav in look ahead to now Broncos a full 3 because the Bengals lost to SF in OT and the Broncos blew out the Lions? A Lions team that was also decimated by illness? this feels like too much value on Bengals.
Game 6: Was @ Phi -7.5 Rescheduled for Tuesday night, my -4 on Sunday was cancelled and this reopened at 6.5. I waited too long to bet and only got it after the announcement that it was likely that Gibert would start at QB for Was. It does not look like Washington is getting many of their players back from Covid and the Eagles are fully healthy and sound very motivated. Betting a shitty number but I think they win by double digits.
Game 7: Sea +7.5 @ LA Rams : I don’t have much on this game but these teams generally play very tight games and getting over a TD, even with Lockett out seems like value here.