Week 17 is one of the most unpredictable week’s to bet every year as we never really know how teams will choose to end their seasons. More often then not the results are flipped, we see good teams with playoff spots locked up rest key guys, while teams that struggled all year try to end on a high note. So when betting you gotta topsy turvey that muthfaucka.
Game 1: Phi at NYG -1
Bet% Phi 41% NYG59
The Eagles have lost 3 games in a row and last week’s loss to Washington eliminated them from the playoffs. This week has easily been the most difficult of the Chip Kelly era as he and Billy Davis were absolutely killed by the Philly media for their use of CB Bradley Fletcher in 1 on 1 situations with a single high safety. The thing is this isn’t new, the Eagles have given up a league high 10 plays of 50 yards or more and it started in the opener when Allen Hurns beat them for a big TD. Over the last 3 games opposing QB’s are putting up a avg passer rating of 105 and 7.8 yards per pass att. With nothing to play for, hard to see how they come out of this funk this week.
For the Giants, they have one 3 in a row and probably should have one the 2 games that preceded thos 3, the Giants have the hottest QB-WR combo in the league with Eli and Odell Beckam Jr and it certainly looks like they are trying to end the season on a high behind their new superstar.
Fletcher is out for Phi but in terms of how the play, I don’t see how they change for the last game. Eagles will continue to play with single high safety and whether it’s Nolan Carrol or Brandon Boykins, nobody on this team can handle ODB.
Game 2 NYJ +7 @ Mia
Bet% NYJ 43% Mia 57%
Miami is the better team in this game by a large margin, Miami is #11 in DVOA while the Jets are #27 so the line seems about right. I will be on the Jets for one reason, Rex Ryan. This is in all likelihood the last game of the Rex Ryan era and the one thing that is undeniable about Ryan is that he is beloved by his players, in what will be his last game I think they do everything they can to get him a win.
The one place the Jets should have success is in the run game, Jets are 2nd in the league in rushin at 4.6 yards per attempt and run defense is the big hole in the Miami defense they are 25th giving up 4.4 per game and have been worse recently giving up 4.7 yards per att the last 3 weeks.
After 2 straight losing weeks, sweet sweet relief.
Week 15 2-3
Game 1: SD +1.5
Bet% SD 60 SF 40
Score: SD 38 SF 35 OT
In week’s 14 and 15 there were a couple of games where I thought I was on the right side but didn’t get some bounces or a couple of big plays went the wrong way and wins turned to losses. I’s funny because over the long haul games like that see to even out and this game was payback for some tough losses the the last few weeks.
SD trailed this game 28-7 at half, threw 3 interceptions to SF’s zero but managed to recover all 4 fumbles including one by their punt returner Eric Weddle in OT and comeback on the strength of Phillip Rivers arm and 4 passing TDs. Not very often you come back from down 21 to a team as good as SFs defense but the football gods smiled on us here.
Week 16-17 add a new challenge in that it becomes hard to handicap teams that have nothing to play for,teams that have just been eliminated how do they show up? lots of added factors in the final few weeks.
Game 1: SD +1.5
Bet% SD 60 SF 40
I didn’t have time to write this game up yesterday but did post on twitter.Basically I felt that SF would come out flat after losing to arch rival Seattle and having their playoff hopes die. This is a team that championship aspirations so hard to see how they would get up for a game after being eliminated.
Game 2: Min +4.5 @ Mia
Bet% Min 60% Mia 40%
Miami is another team who had their playoff hopes end last week and you wonder how they come out and perform this week. Miami has been a very good team this season despite being 7-7 they are 11th in DVOA and +26 in point differential. All that being said, last week in a must win game they were blown out by the div rival Patriots, it is likely that their coach will be fired and in a spot like this I’m just not sure we see their best effort.
The Vikings are 6-8 but 9-5 ATS, they have been a team that has competed every week and found a way to to stay close in almost every game. The matchup that really works in the Vikings favor in this game is in the run game, Min is 9th in the league at 4.4 yards per attempt while Miami is 25th vs the run giving up 4.4 yards per attempt and in the last 3 weeks its actually been 5.2 yards per att.
I wish I had got a better number as this game opened at 6.5 and 6 was available most of the week but I do think Vikings have a very good shot of winning straight up.
Coming off of the worst week of the season I found myself very gun shy tis week. THere were 2 unders that were stone cold unders in terms of meeting my criteria, 1 of which I bet in the first meeting (Sea-SF) the other was Arz-Stl and partly because of the 1-6 week LW I tried to be very selective in my plays and it probably cost me here. Another losing week though only by 1 here and the overall record continues to look very good. Still not the bounce back week I was looking for.
Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5
Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%
Score: GB 13 – Buf 21
A remarkable game by the #2 DVOA ranked and #1 ranked pass rush Buffalo defense in this game. Bills held Rodgers to 4.1 yards per pass and also intercepted him twice holding him to an amazing passer rating of 34.3 and QBR of 17.2.
Last week was the worst one of the season and it’s funny how much it affected my confidence this week. Nothing jumped off th page to me this week, the TNF game looked like a stone cold under to me but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on what would have been a win. I didn’t finalize my plays this week until Sunday morning but here is hoping for some redemption.
Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5
Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%
I wish I would have got the best of this number at the 4.5 but on Sunday morning we had a bug reverse move as this game dropped to 3.5 and even 3 at the sharp books. GB has been annihilating teams and the public will bet them in any circumstance but GB has not been quite as impressive on the road they are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road.
Buffalo brings the the #2 DVOA defense, they hold opposing QB’s to a passer rating of 77.6 which is 2nd in the league and they are #1 in the league in sack percentage. Green bay has struggled in games where Aaron Rogers has been pressured and with Eddie Lacy banged up the Bills should be able to focus on rushing Rodgers without worrying about the run as much as a regular week.
It was all going so well and then week 14. Disaster.
This was only the 3rd losing week of the season and we are still above 60% on the season which is fantastic but man a week like this really hurts and even though I have kind of been expecting a week or 2 where there would be some regression this was really tough. Anyway here is the recap of the week where almost everything went wrong.
Game 1 Bal @ Mia -2.5
Bet% Bal 58 Mia 42
Score: Bal 28 Mia 13
In a game of two of the top DVOA teams in the league, I thought Baltimore would have some hangover from their loss to the Chargers at the end of thegame in Week 14 and that Miami would want to take care of business in the game preceding a trip to New England. This game was 10-7 Miami at half but the 2nd half was all Ravens.
Miami was unable and really unwilling to take advantage of the Ravens biggest defficiency, which is their secondary. Miami averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt and had only 1 completion to a WR of 20 yards.
The Ravens on the other hand took full advantage of Miami’s biggest deficiency of late which is their run defense. Ravens ran the ball 31 times for 5.9 yard per attempt. Ravens also did a great job against Miami’s pass rush giving up 1 sack and 1 QB hit.
Game 2 TB @ Det Under 42
Bet% Over 75% Under 25%
Score: 34-17 (51)
For the second straight week the Detroit offense was very productive, 5.9 yards per play, 7.7 yards per pass and 4 for 5 in the redzone. With everyone healthy I think it is safe to say the Lions offense can now be counted on to perform at levels we are used to seeing them at least vs defenses that are not elite.
The Bucs averaged only 3.9 yards per play, were 1-3 in the redzone, turned it over 3 times and gave up 6 sacks and an amazing 14 QB hits. The Lions absolutely dominated the Bucs offense but partly because they were comfortably ahead most of the game they did have lapses where the Bucs were able to score.
I think what this game shows is the risk in betting an under in a game with a large spread, if the better team gets ahead early giving up a score or 2 isn’t a big deal. There were cases where Lions players took risks for big plays like interceptions that allowed the Bucs to keep drives going.
This was the first game I bet this week which is strange because I really like both these teams and think they are both under rated in marketplace. By DVOA Bal is #4 while Mia is #8 but I think there are 2 reasons to go against Bal here this week. First, they had a crushing loss last week at home, their division is so tight that a win last week would of probably opened the chance at winning the division again but they lose on a final drive the San Diego and I wonder how that affects them.
The second reason is that even though their overall numbers on defense (#10 DVOA) is good, injuries to their secondary, especially Jimmy Smith, and now the suspension of Natta makes them more vulnerable on defense that the Dolphins who are the #7 DVOA defense. To that point, the Ravens are giving up 7.3 yards per pass this season but over the last 3 weeks that number has gone up to 7.8 and last week they gave up 8.1.
Game 2 TB @ Det Under 42
Bet% Over 75% Under 25%
Detroit has been my favorite under team this year and even though we lost with the Detroit under last week I think it is the right play again this week. Last week Det had one of their best offensive performances of the year against the Bears who have the 27th ranked DVOA offense and gave up 17 to he Bears 14th ranked offense. This week Lions play the Bucs, who rank 31st on offense but a very respectable 18th on defense.
The Lions#1 ranked DVOA defense should have no problem stopping the Bucs offense and I expect the Bucs Def to keep this game close for the most part. This is the biggest spread of the year for the Lions at 10.5 but rather than trusting their offense can score enough to cover I think the under gives the most value.
The winning weeks keep coming, back that money truck up again!
Game 1 Chi @ Det Under 48
Bet% Over 57% 43%
Score Chi 17 Det 34 (51)
The Lions, as they have a few games this year were loose on defense early giving up 14 in 1Q and then only 3 after that, though it should be noted that 7 of those came off of a fumble by Stafford at his own 15. On offense the Lions had there best game of the season vs a defense which has made a habit of giving teams their best performance of he year. Feel like we should of got this one.
Game 2: Phi +3 @ Dal
Bet% Phi 42 Dal 58
Score Phi 33 Dal 10
Eagles completely dominated this game, on defense they held Dallas to 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground while putting up 5.7 in the run game on offense. The score is probably more flattering than the game as Dallas turned it over 3 times and the Eagles only went 1-5 in Redzone.
Game 3: Sea @ SF under 40.5
Score: Sea 19 SF 3 (22)
Both these defenses were dominant, Seattle was additionally helped by the 49ers ineptitude while the 49ers defense did a great job in the redzone holding Hawks to 1 TD in 5 trips.
Game 4: NE @ GB-3
Bet% NE 62% GB 38%
Score NE 21 GB 25
This was really a NFL Plinko game, Packers could of gone up by double digits in this game, while the Patriots too had some missed opportunities. The Packers outgained Pats 478 to 320 but went 0-4 in redzone so I do think we were on right side here and deserved the win.