Thanksgiving Week in the NFL is an interesting one because we have the full day of games on Thursday and then because so many people are off and at home watching games we see a lot of money on games and larger bet% splits because there is so much public money in market. We hit on our one Turkey Day pick with Washington +7 and hope to continue our hot streak with this week’s cards. I have a feeling there will be a lot of work Sunday morning and some additional picks not listed because if the public money shows up Sat night and Sunday morning we might see some additional value.
The Bengals had as bad a week as you can have last week, not only did they lose at home to the Bills effectively ending any hopes of making the playoffs, they also lost AJ Green for the foreseeable future and Geo Bernard for the season. We saw the Bengals last week struggle on offense vs the Bills who are good on defense but basically league average, Bengals were shut out in the 2nd half and averaged just 4.2 yards per play for the game.
The Ravens are a much better defense than the Bills especially vs the run. I expect the Bengals want to lean heavily on Jeremy Hill in this game with no AJ Green and Bernard and the Ravens are the #1 run defense by DVOA and yards per att. Bengals passing game will rely heavily on the TE Eifert, remember they started the season without their #2 and #3 WRs from the last few years Jones and Sanu and neither Lefel of Boyd has made an impact this season. Add to all this that the Bengal’s offensive line has been one of the worst all year, currently 26th in adjusted sack rate.
The Ravens offense has been a problem all year, they’re 30th in offensive DVOA and the offense is averaging just 18.1 points per game despite not having faced many elite defenses. I’m not sure either team hits 20 in this game and think we are most likely to see a score somewhere around 17-13. (more…)
This week’s card is a little strange from my end because I am betting a lot of favorites which is not the way my card looks most weeks. In the end betting is about getting value and this was a week where I saw most of the value on the favorites.
Last week was a ‘ should have been, could have been’ week, I finished 4-3 but 6 days later I still can’t stop thinking about the missed opportunities in the Bears and Ravens games. I’m also stewing over not pulling the trigger on TNF where I liked the Chargers but because I hate Thursday Night football and often don’t feel fully prepared to bet, I missed out on a really great spot. Need to shake that all off and make this week a winner.
Week 5: 4-3
NFL 2016: 16-11-1
2015: 63 – 37 – 3
Game 1: Phi -2.5 @ Wash
Bet% Phi 68% Wash 32%
As an Eagles fan, as excited as I am about their great start I still felt like last week was a bad spot for them and bet the Lions. The Lions not only got the cover but ended up winning straight up. Despite the loss I was left feeling very good about the Eagles going forward and didn’t think the Detroit game drops them at all in the rankings.
Washington, as discussed in the Week 5 results post, got one of the luckiest wins of the year, everything that could have gone wrong for the Ravens did and still Washington needed a punt return TD to win.
The Eagles are #2 in DVOA to start this season, they are +64 in point differential and important to this game, Eagles are 2nd in sack percentage. Getting pressure on Cousins has been a key to creating turnovers, Eagles are 7th best vs the run, they should be able to force Washington in to a lot of passing and I expect some turnovers.
On the flip side Washington is dead last in rush defense DVOA and the Eagles at this point want to rely on the run game to set their offense up. Doug Pederson has used a lot of play action, read option and rollouts to get Wentz easy reads and throws, I expect the Eagles run offense to have success and open their passing game up.
3 key players possibly may miss this game. For Eagles, RT Lane Johnson will start his 10 game suspension and the Eagles will miss their best player on offense going forward but I am not sure Washington has the front to take advantage. Eagles best player on the team Fletcher Cox missed practice early in the week, looks like he will play but may not be 100%.
For Washington, Jordan Reed is expected to be out with a concussion, Reed is not only their most reliable pass catcher but a bonafide Eagles killer.
Game 2: Atlanta @ Seattle -6
Bet% Atl 57% Sea 43%
Last week’s win in Denver by Atlanta was a statement game and for me there is no choice but to believe that they are real. The offense is #1 in DVOA, in yards per pass att they are #1 with 9.9 yards/att. SD came into this week 2nd at 8.2. That difference of 1.7 means that SD is as close to Cleveland who is 21st at 6.5 yards per att as they are to #1 Atl.
Week 4 was the second straight losing 2-3 week. losing weeks are going to happen but you want to obviously minimise the severity of them but more importantly you don’t want to have them impact the following week. Sometimes after losing it’s hard to fire on a lot of games and you can get conservative or move away from good bets because you lost similar ones the previous week. Shot memories can be helpful in betting. I liked a lot of games this weekend, the card may end up being the largest in terms of games played so far but yo gotta just go with it. It’s a long season, week 5 is no time to run and hide.
Last Week 2-3
NFL 2016: 12-8-1
2015: 63 – 37 – 3
Game 1: Was @ Bal -3.5
Bet%; Was 52% Bal 48%
Washington is coming off of 2 straight wins and appears to be back on track after a 0-2 start, while the Ravens lost their first game of the year to the Raiders. With the Ravens at home, this line essentially makes them 0.5 favorites on a neutral field but I don’t see them that close.
In my ratings I have Baltimore as #10 and Washington at 17, I think by the end of the year both may drop a few spots but the gap feels about right. Baltimore is 4th in defensive DVOA, and 1st vs the run. Last week, Washington had their best run game of the year averaging 5.6 yards per rush which meant they didn’t have to just rely on Cousins and the pass game.
Even though Washington ended up winning both of their last 2 games they were in position to lose both and probably would have had it not been for some very timely turnovers from the Giants and Browns. Both Giants and Browns turned the ball over 3 times and Washington was +4 in TOs in those games.
The Ravens are coming off of a very tough loss where they allowed the Raiders to drive down with 2 mins left and score a GW TD. Ravens outgained Raiders 412-261, ran almost 30 more plays then them and probably deserved a better fate.
On the injury front, Washington was particularly hit hard last week with players leaving, it looks like Kerrigan and starting G Lauvao will play but may not be 100%.
Game 2: Chi +5 @ Ind
Bet% Chi 47% IND 53%
This one just feels like too many points for Chicago in what is a very tough spot for the Colts and in fact in DVOA rankings Chicago ranks a little higher than the Colts based on only this season (23rd to 27th).
Lets start off with the schedule side for the Colts. Indy becomes one of the only teams I can remember to not get a bye the week after playing in London. Maybe it doesn’t have a major impact Sunday but it has to be somewhat of a disadvantage and I think it is unlikely they had a regular week of practice because of it.
The Colts are 1-3 and they will definitely need this win if they want to make the playoffs so there is that ‘desperation’ risk but I’m just not sure that it is enough to think they can cover a number like this coming off of a cross continental trip.
Week 3 brought our 1st losing week, a combination of not getting the best of the number and some of the early 1 score luck we got going the other way. The morning started fine, for a while it looked pretty good but then the hits started coming and didn’t stop.
Week 3 Results: 2-3-1
What Went Right.
Bills Bills Bills: Every week I look for the ‘hold your nose’ game, basically the side that looks the toughest to back based on last week. This week that team was the Bills, Buffalo was 0-2, played awful on national TV TNF and were playing a highly rated team that won by a blowout. The Cardinals have been low key kind of bad on the road and in this game Carson Palmer was terrible. Bills won the turnover battle 5-1, anytime you do that you should win big.
I don’t start really using this seasons stats until after week 3, at that point even though the sample is small, we at least have every team play 180-200 plays and have a start at home and road.
Week 3 to me is very often similar to week 2 in that we see a lot of reacting to recent results and I think again there is an opportunity to take advantage. We saw last week 7 of 9 0-1 teams playing 1-0 teams cover including the Rams who had the worst performance of week 1 not just cover but beat Seattle straight up.
This week’s card is going to be heavy in teams that got blown out last week, so pro tip: remember to forget what you saw last week.
Last Week 3 – 2
2016: 8 – 2
2015: 63 – 37 – 3
Game 1: Bal (2-0) @ Jax +1 (0-2)
Bet% Bal 48% Jax 52%
A week after being applauded for playing the Packers tough in their opener everyone is back off the Jags bandwagon in week 3 after getting blown out by the Chargers 38-14. I was on the Chargers last week and thought there was an overreaction to their blowing the game in KC and people getting a little too excited about the Jags game vs GB.
The Jags were a preseason darling because of their offseason upgrades on defense and sharps heavily bet them over 7.5 wins, now at 0-2 there is a lot of “these are the same ol’ Jags” talk. They may not get to 8 wins but I do see them being a tough team at home and I think this week’s matchup is good one for them to get their first win.
The Ravens have not been able to get their run game going and even the pass game has been relying heavily on big plays to Mike Wallace. The Ravens struggled to score at home vs the Bills who then gave up 37 to the Jets at home on TNF. Last week vs the Browns the Ravens were down 20-0 and managed to engineer the 2nd biggest comeback in team history.
After 2 tight wins including huge comeback against the leagues worst team I think this sets up as a spot where the Ravens aren’t able to hang offensively with the Jags. Jags should get Chris Ivory back to help the run game and I can see this being Allen Robinson’s game to breakout.Gus Bradley needs a win bad, I think he knows he is on the hot seat and needs to get his young team feeling good about themselves heading into their first divisional showdown with the Colts next week.
Game 2: Det (1-1) +7 @ GB (1-1)
Bet% Det 48% GB 52%
For the 3rd straight week I will be on the Lions and for the 3rd straight week I will be betting against the Packers. The Lions lead last week for 3 quarters before allowing the Titans to come back in the 4th quarter and erase a 12 point lead and with it were laments of “these are the same old Lions” The offense was pretty good in the first and had opportunities to score late in the half but had 2 TDs called back due to penalties. One thing that was very real in this game ere the Lions injuries. The Lions missed DeAndre Levy going into the game and ended up losing Ansah and Abdullah during the game and it looks like all 3 will miss this week.
Green Bay lost a high-profile game on SNF where over 80% of bets were on them as a short road fav but I think most people feel that being back home should be able to cure whatever is ailing the Packers especially on offense. Through the first weeks GB is 25th in offensive DVOA, now of course its only 2 games, both were on the road and one against a very good defense in Minnesota. Still I think the idea that Jordy Nelson coming back, Mike McCarthy calling plays and Eddie Lacy being ‘in shape’ would get the Packers right back to where they were in 2014 nd previously doesn’t feel like quite the lock it did in preseason.
And then there is this, Aaron Rodgers has now gone 14 straight games (including the 2 2015 playoff games) without hitting a passer rating of 100. From 2009 to 2014 he averaged a passer rating of over 100 for the season and on a game by game basis, in 2014 he did it 9 times and in one of the games he didn’t he was at 99.7.
We are beginning to hear some whispers about the problems the Packers are having on offense but in most of the mainstream media it is still pretty quiet and because of that I think there will be some value betting against the Packers.
The Lions played the Packers very tough last year, winning in Green Bay and then losing that heart breaker at home via the Rodgers patented hail mary. I think they can be close again this week and have a chance to win. Missed on the 7.5 which is disappointing but hopefully the 7 is enough. (more…)
Anytime Curt Henning gifs make an appearance on this blog it is the highest honour, it is my “I’m going to Disneyland”
Last season we had 2 perfect weekends, Week 11 and Week 15. Coming out of the gate with a perfect weekend in 2016 is a not only a great morale boost but also helps build a buffer for one of those 1-4 weekends that is sure to pop up early in the year.
Week 1: 5-0
2016 ATS: 5-0
2015 Season including Playoffs: 63-37-3
Week 1 Results
What Went Right
Everything! Well I guess that goes without saying that when you go 5-0 but for the purpose of this review it is probably more valuable to separate out the luck.
TB- ATL– This was the game that I think most closely followed what I expected when betting. Atlanta looked similar to what they did in the 2nd half of 2015. Devonta Freemon’s struggles continued into 2016 as he rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries. TB basically led this game start to finish, a very impressive road win vs division opponent. Also cashed the ML bet here.
GB-Jax- This ended up coming down to the wire and a late FG by the Jags when they were down 7 was crucial to get the cover but overall I thought they played the type of game we expected. The Jags offense was able to have success and out gained the Packers. I had questions for just how effecient the Packers would be early and how much they would get out of Nelson and Lacy. While both players looked fine neither looked anywhere close to their previous best, Lacy averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 14 carries and Nelson had just 32 yards receiving. This line ended up as low as 4 at kick off so it certainly mattered what number you got here
Football is back, De La Soul is back and life is pretty good right now. Coming off of 2 straight winning seasons on this blog certainly has me worried if the gambling gods take a chunk back but I do think the process of writing out rationale for every pick has improved my processes for making picks and also made me constantly seek out better and better information. As usual a lot of attention will be placed on analytics and the betting market to make these picks. Good luck to everyone.
Week 1 is always tough, not only do we have only the preseason to go on, these lines have been out for months and worked by professionals in every direction so it’s hard to trust the late line moves as true positions. But football is back and it’s the best. Same with De La.
2015 Review (all plays posted on Get The Cover)
2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3
2016 NFL Playoffs including SB: 6-2
2015-16 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season): 63-37-3 or 63%
Game 1 : San Diego +7 @ KC
Betting % SD 42% KC 58%
I bet this game early in the week and posted on twitter and here that the 7s were all going away and buying up to the full TD at -125 -130 was worth it. I wrote about the Chargers as an early season team to bet on and the reasons I like them in this post are basically the same.
The Chargers last year were the 15th best offense overall despite have the 31st ranked run offense. How much of last year was Melvin Gordon being terrible vs the offensive line missing 3 key pieces for a combined 20 games? I think with a healthy line and the addition of OC Ken Wisenhunt the run game will improve and the passing game should get a boost from that even if the run game just moves from terrible to below average. Rivers will have his full complement of WRs to start the year something he rarely had last year and I think he playing the K defense early is an advantage.
The Chiefs will start the year without Justin Houston and are relying on Tamba Hali and Dee Ford to fill in and create pressure. Eric Berry was late to camp after being franchise tagged and didn’t play any in the preseason. The Chiefs played without Houston to end the year and have a great coaching staff so these issues may be minor but if they are vulnerable on defense I think it will be early on.
Also worth mentioning the Chiefs were 3rd in the league in takeaways and 2nd in TO margin. I do think Alex Smith is someone who will always throw a lower number of interceptions but on the defensive side I would be surprised if the takeaways didn’t drop this season.
On offense Jamal Charles is not quite ready for the season and Chiefs will go with Ware as their starter. Andy Reid always runs a quality offense regardless of who is starting and the Chargers defense really struggled last year so it will be interesting to see how that unit bounces back this year and if Joey Bosa actually plays.
The Chargers played 12 one score games last year with a seriously deplete roster, (27th in Adjusted Games lost), I think they keep this game close and have a chance to win straight up. Sprinkle on ML
I didn’t get a chance to really look at the opening lines this week until late Tuesday and in doing so I missed out on a few great opportunities. Week 4 saw some dramatic line moves especially in the totals due to the impending Hurricane Joaquin, the sharps bet heavily on the unders on games like Was – Phi and quickly drove the lines down.
Its a good lesson on the importance of checking out the opening lines and being prepared early to take advantage of opening lines either because of major factors like weather & injuries or simply knowing that certain numbers are going to be bet a certain way because of public perception.
Season ATS 12-7 Last Week 4-3
Game1 NYJ -1.5 vs MIA (In London England)
Bet% NYJ 67% Mia 33%
All week I kept thinking of reasons not to bet the Jets like the game is in London and there is definitely some unknowns that come with that, The Dolphins have underperformed all year and at some point are going to play up to their talent and the there are rumours that Philbins job is on the line so you never know how that impacts the team. In the end,this feels like it’s too good a matchup at a cheap price.
The Jets and Dolphins have played similar levels of competition but had very different results. The Jets are 2-1 with a point differential of +27 while Miami is 1-2 with a point differential of -23. The Jets have been helped in their wins with turnover margins that are not sustainable but what is sustainable is their dominant defense.
The Jets are #2 in defensive DVOA, against the pass they are #4 in avg opp passer rating, 66.5 which includes Andrew Luck, 3rd in opp passing yards per attempt and 7th vs the run giving up 3.5 yards per rush. Miami has not had much luck running the ball so far this season averaging only 4.0 yards per rush and the Jets just faced the Eagles last week who have very similar run schemes to the Dolphins and held them to 3.2 yards per rush. That means the middling Dolphins pass game will have to carry the offense vs the dominant Jets pass defense.
On the flip side the Dolphins run defense has not got better even with the addition of Suh to the defensive line, they are 22nd in the league giving up 4.2 yards per att and the Jets get Chris Ivory back this week. Miami’s pass defense has been even worse giving up 7.9 yards per attempt (29th) which considering who they have played, Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor aren’t exactly a murders row should provide the Jets plenty of opportunities to score.
Week 16-17 add a new challenge in that it becomes hard to handicap teams that have nothing to play for,teams that have just been eliminated how do they show up? lots of added factors in the final few weeks.
Game 1: SD +1.5
Bet% SD 60 SF 40
I didn’t have time to write this game up yesterday but did post on twitter.Basically I felt that SF would come out flat after losing to arch rival Seattle and having their playoff hopes die. This is a team that championship aspirations so hard to see how they would get up for a game after being eliminated.
Game 2: Min +4.5 @ Mia
Bet% Min 60% Mia 40%
Miami is another team who had their playoff hopes end last week and you wonder how they come out and perform this week. Miami has been a very good team this season despite being 7-7 they are 11th in DVOA and +26 in point differential. All that being said, last week in a must win game they were blown out by the div rival Patriots, it is likely that their coach will be fired and in a spot like this I’m just not sure we see their best effort.
The Vikings are 6-8 but 9-5 ATS, they have been a team that has competed every week and found a way to to stay close in almost every game. The matchup that really works in the Vikings favor in this game is in the run game, Min is 9th in the league at 4.4 yards per attempt while Miami is 25th vs the run giving up 4.4 yards per attempt and in the last 3 weeks its actually been 5.2 yards per att.
I wish I had got a better number as this game opened at 6.5 and 6 was available most of the week but I do think Vikings have a very good shot of winning straight up.
Get the Cover 