Week 3

Week 3 Picks – 2020

We are off to a choppy start in 2020, a mix of some bad beats like Cleveland last week and some bad reads like the Lions – Packers. For week 3 I have a very large card, usually week 2 is over reaction week but for me this year that seems to have been pushed back to week 3 and as a result there is a lot of value on the board. Time to make a move.

LW: 2-3

2020- 4-5-1

Game 1: Cin @ Phi -4

Bet% Cin 50% Phi 50%

There is probably not another game on the card that has had the line move due to the first 2 weeks than this game. If the Eagles win week 1 and look anything in the 2^nd half of that game like they did in the 1^st half then this game would be over a TD. In Preseason bets, Eagles were favored double digits for this game. Based on the first 2 weeks you can certainly understand why this line has moved but I just think it has gone too far.

The Eagles were up 17-0 in week one before 2 terrible interceptions by Wentz completely changed the game. Last week the Eagles were 1^st and 10 at the Rams 21, down 5 and driving for the lead, when Wentz through an interception in the endzone and basically killed there momentum in that game. Wentz came into the season with a interception rate of 1.7%, last year he was at 1.2%, through the first 2 games this year he is at 4.7%. It is hard to believe that his int rate won’t regress towards that 2% rate that he has traditionally been under, this is player that has a track record of not throwing interceptions.

The Bengals defense is one the Eagles should have every opportunity to get well against, last week the Bengals gave up 434 yards on just 58 plays (7.5 yards per play) to a Browns team that had struggled mightily in week 1. Bengals will be missing the keys to their Dline with Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels both expected to be out. The Eagles should be able to run the ball with Miles Sanders and get time to look deep to Desean Jackson

Game 2: Oak @ NE -6

Bet% Oak 34% NE 66%

This was a game I had circled as soon as it was clear the Raiders were going to win om MNF against the Saints. Oakland 2-0, coming off of one of the biggest wins they have had in years, in their new stadium now has to fly out east across the country on a short week and play New England. The Patriots had their own dramatic prime time game but they ended up losing on the last play of the game in Seattle on SNF.

The Raiders offense feels very funneled at this point with either Josh Jacobs or Darren Waller being the focus, no team has targeted their wide receivers less than the Raiders. To me this is exactly the type of offense that Belichek has been able scheme to a halt in the past.

The Raiders defense has had issues getting pressure the defensive line has just 1 sack and have been bottom 5 in DVOA vs the pass and run. The Patriots offense put up 464 yards off offense last week in Seattle, Cam Newton passed for 397 yards and also rushed for 47 yards with 2 TDs and looks every bit of the top 10 QB he has been throughout his career.

There are 2 things that have had me hesitant on this game, 1^st is the fact that there was a very large bet that came in on the Raiders during the week which dropped the line to 5.5 for a few days. The second is that the Patriots play the Chiefs next week and there is some chance they are looking forward to that game though the fact that they lost last week should reduce that trap game factor.

Game 3: LAR @ Buf -2

Bet% LAR 54% Buf 46%

The Rams are playing their second straight road game on the east coast and unlike the 49ers who stayed in Ohio, the Rams flew back to LA and then back out to Buffalo. Both these teams come in 2-0 and in both cases they have played bottom 10 defenses, though I think you can make the case that the Rams have played against better competition.

Beyond the Rams schedule/travel issues, the other big reason to like Buffalo in this spot is that traditionally Jared Goff has struggled on the road and struggled vs defenses that pressure. Last week the Eagles pressure was negated by the fact that their linebackers and safeties played so poorly that Goff had incredibly easy reads all game with wide open throws. Buffalo is easily the best defense the Rams have faced this year and also the defense that is ranked highest in adjusted sack rate so this should provide the best test for the Rams offense.

Game 4: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Game 1: Was @ Cle -1 & SF @ NYG +9.5

Last week you would have won teasers on every game, either way except the Eagles game and the MNF game, which probably means it will be the opposite this week but I like this one anyways.

Game 1 I am taking the Browns to beat Washington at home. This line has moved between 7 and 7.5, I played it at the 7 and got it down to 1. Washington is playing their second straight road game and despite a big second half in the opener vs Philly where everything went there way, the other 6 quarters this season they have looked every bit of the bottom 3 team they were expected to be. The Browns are on extra rest in this game after playing on Thursday last week and this is a game they really have to win when you look at their upcoming schedule. The Browns next 3 games are at Dallas, home to the Colts and at Pittsburgh so I can definitely see the coaching staff making sure they get this win and try to get out of that run at 3-3.

Game 2, I have the Giants at +9.5. This is really a missed opportunity as it seemed pretty clear that the 49ers were going to hold out almost every key injured player due to their issues with the field in NJ and I let this line move from 6 to 3.5. While I think the Giants have a decent shot to win this game straight up, I feel better using them in a teaser and getting it at a TD plus. The 49ers are playing with injuries every level of their team and it is hard to see how they field a team that wins this game. SF will be without Garrapolo, Kittle, Bosa, D. Ford, Mostert, Coleman among others, I don’t think there is a unit on the team that doesn’t have 2^nd and 3^rd string players on it. I will probably have a small sprinkle on the Giants money line as well.

Game 5: Car +6.5 @ LAC

Bet% Car 43% LAC 57%

This line opened at 6.5 and has stayed at that spot the while time and for me it just feels like too many points for Chargers to be favored over anyone. Last week the Chargers played an incredible game vs the Chiefs a game which they lead the entire game but somehow ended up dropping in OT. I like fading them in this spot for a couple of reasons.

First, I see a letdown spot here against arguably the worst team in the league after playing a division rival who is also the reigning Super Bowl champs.

Second, I like fading Justin Herbert in his second start. Last week nobody knew that Herbert was starting, the Chiefs had no film on him and had prepped for Taylor all week. Overall, Herbert played a very good game but now the Panthers get to prep for him with game tape and he was not a player that was expected to be a finished product coming out so I could see some mistakes in this game.

Finally, I like the idea that this is the Panthers first game without CMC, McCaffery is the biggest name on this team and I think his loss will be felt over the long term but Mike Davis should be able to provide 70/80% of the production and I’m not sure the Panthers should be downgraded much this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers win this game straight up.

Game 6: GB @ NO -3

Bet% GB 65% NO 35%

Week 3 is chalk full of lone moves and values and this game is another that I think has moved too far. Coming into the year, the Packers were seen by many of the smartest analysts as a team primed for a regression. Now after dominant wins over the Vikings who may be most downgraded team year over year and the Lions who were extreme banged up and came in missing their #1 WR and most of their secondary, the Packers are being graded as one of the elite teams.

The Saints lost on prime time in Oakland in their first game without Michael Thomas and after seeing that everyone is lining up to bet against them. I still have the Saints as the #1 team in the NFC and this line should for me is probably 2 to 3 points light. I love the Saints to bounce back here and the Packers to look more like the team we expected coming into the season.

** Games I Haven’t bet yet but still might

2 games I have not bet but am waiting to see injury info on Sunday before making bets on. Will confirm before kickoff on Sunday if these are official bets.

Det +6 @ Ari

Bet% Det 24% Ari 76%

The Lions are a team that nobody is going to want to bet this week but what is interesting is that despite everyone being on Arizona this line has not moved past the 6 and has dropped to 5.5 a few times. Last week Washington was a 7 pt dog in Arizona and coming into the year I don’t think anyone saw the Lions only 1 point better than Washington. The Lions have been decimated by injuries but if they get some help in the secondary and Kenny Golliday is active, I will be on the Lions tomorrow.

Hou +4 @ Pit

Bet% Hou 40% Pit 60%

I really want to bet on Houston this week. No team has had a tougher schedule than the Texans who had to start with the Chiefs, Ravens and now get the Steelers. It really isn’t possible to know how good Houston is based on their schedule because they have played the best 2 teams in the league and on top of that have had some injury issues as well. The Steelers are 2-0 but haven’t won ATS despite playing 2 bottom end teams in the Giants and Broncos. I know we all feel like the Steelers are good again and a top end AFC team but based on their first 2 weeks its hard to say that they are at that level right now. I want to bet Houston in this spot but half their team in on the injured list as questionable and I really want to make sure most of those guys are playing before making the bet.

Week 3 Results: 2-3-1

Week 3 brought our 1st losing week, a combination of not getting the best of the number and some of the early 1 score luck we got going the other way. The morning started fine, for a while it looked pretty good but then the hits started coming and didn’t stop.

shinsuke-hit-3-times

Week 3 Results: 2-3-1

week-3-2016

What Went Right.

Bills Bills Bills: Every week I look for the ‘hold your nose’ game, basically the side that looks the toughest to back based on last week. This week that team was the Bills, Buffalo was 0-2, played awful on national TV TNF and were playing a highly rated team that won by a blowout. The Cardinals have been low key kind of bad on the road and in this game Carson Palmer was terrible. Bills won the turnover battle 5-1, anytime you do that you should win big.

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2016 Week 3 picks: Remember To Forget

I don’t start really using this seasons stats until after week 3, at that point even though the sample is small, we at least have every team play 180-200 plays and have a start at home and road.

Week 3 to me is very often similar to week 2 in that we see a lot of reacting to recent results and I think again there is an opportunity to take advantage. We saw last week 7 of 9 0-1 teams playing 1-0 teams cover including the Rams who had the worst performance of week 1 not just cover but beat Seattle straight up.

This week’s card is going to be heavy in teams that got blown out last week, so pro tip: remember to forget what you saw last week.

Last Week 3 – 2

2016: 8 – 2

2015: 63 – 37 – 3

Game 1: Bal (2-0) @ Jax +1 (0-2)

Bet% Bal 48% Jax 52%

A week after being applauded for playing the Packers tough in their opener everyone is back off the Jags bandwagon in week 3 after getting blown out by the Chargers 38-14. I was on the Chargers last week and thought there was an overreaction to their blowing the game in KC and people getting a little too excited about the Jags game vs GB.

The Jags were a preseason darling because of their offseason upgrades on defense and sharps heavily bet them over 7.5 wins, now at 0-2 there is a lot of “these are the same ol’ Jags” talk. They may not get to 8 wins but I do see them being a tough team at home and I think this week’s matchup is good one for them to get their first win.

The Ravens have not been able to get their run game going and even the pass game has been relying heavily on big plays to Mike Wallace. The Ravens struggled to score at home vs the Bills who then gave up 37 to the Jets at home on TNF. Last week vs the Browns the Ravens were down 20-0 and managed to engineer the 2nd biggest comeback in team history.

After 2 tight wins including huge comeback against the leagues worst team I think this sets up as a spot where the Ravens aren’t able to hang offensively with the Jags. Jags should get Chris Ivory back to help the run game and I can see this being Allen Robinson’s game to breakout.Gus Bradley needs a win bad, I think he knows he is on the hot seat and needs to get his young team feeling good about themselves heading into their first divisional showdown with the Colts next week.

Game 2: Det (1-1) +7 @ GB (1-1)

Bet% Det 48% GB 52%

For the 3rd straight week I will be on the Lions and for the 3rd straight week I will be betting against the Packers. The Lions lead last week for 3 quarters before allowing the Titans to come back in the 4th quarter and erase a 12 point lead and with it were laments of “these are the same old Lions” The offense was pretty good in the first and had opportunities to score late in the half but had 2 TDs called back due to penalties. One thing that was very real in this game ere the Lions injuries. The Lions missed DeAndre Levy going into the game and ended up losing Ansah and Abdullah during the game and it looks like all 3 will miss this week.

Green Bay lost a high-profile game on SNF where over 80% of bets were on them as a short road fav but I think most people feel that being back home should be able to cure whatever is ailing the Packers especially on offense. Through the first weeks GB is 25th in offensive DVOA, now of course its only 2 games, both were on the road and one against a very good defense in Minnesota. Still I think the idea that Jordy Nelson coming back, Mike McCarthy calling plays and Eddie Lacy being ‘in shape’ would get the Packers right back to where they were in 2014 nd previously doesn’t feel like quite the lock it did in preseason.

And then there is this, Aaron Rodgers has now gone 14 straight games (including the 2 2015 playoff games) without hitting a passer rating of 100. From 2009 to 2014 he averaged a passer rating of over 100 for the season and on a game by game basis, in 2014 he did it 9 times and in one of the games he didn’t he was at 99.7.

We are beginning to hear some whispers about the problems the Packers are having on offense but in most of the mainstream media it is still pretty quiet and because of that I think there will be some value betting against the Packers.

The Lions played the Packers very tough last year, winning in Green Bay and then losing that heart breaker at home via the Rodgers patented hail mary. I think they can be close again this week and have a chance to win. Missed on the 7.5 which is disappointing but hopefully the 7 is enough. (more…)

Week 3 Notes

1)Impact of Injuries to Skill Positions Over Rated?

Week 3 once again seemed to make the case that injuries to skill positions are often over rated by the public. In Week 2 the Chiefs played without star RB Jamal Charles and star S Eric Berry, the announcement that Charles would miss the game on Sunday moved the line which had been bet down to +3.5 back to +5.5. The Chiefs not only covered the game but easily won the game straight up 34-14 and Charles’s replacement Knile Davis had 132 yards and a TD on 32 carries.