Our reg season from the abyss continued into playoffs as the Steelers followed up the worst coached reg season game of the year vs the Jags with the worst coached playoff game of the year and killed the 2nd half of our 2 team teaser. The Eagles not only covered the +9 we had but won straight up setting up a middling opportunity for me with the Jags which I didn’t take. Dumb.
2017 Reg Season 29-36
2017 Playoffs: 0-1
Game 1: Min @ Phi +3
Bet% Min 55% Phi 45%
These teams feel a lot closer than the spread indicates. Basically this has the Vikings as 6 point favorites on a neutral and I just don;t see it. The big discrepancy appears to be at QB with Case Keenum being rated far higher than Nick Foles. Keenum has definitely had a very productive season but he is also much more of a risk taker compared to the cautious Foles. The upside of those risky plays is being priced here but I don’t think the downside is. (more…)
2017 Reg Season – 29-36
Game 1: 6 Point Teaser Phi +9 and Pit -1
Bet% Atl 63% Phi 27%
Bet% Jax 39% Pit 61%
Eagles are the number 1 seed and 3 pt underdogs here with Nick Foles at QB. Falcons played a great game last week and lead start to finish but the conditions in Philly will be much more difficult. This will be the Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks while the Eagles will obviously be rested off a bye and only a quarter of play in week 17. I like the Eagles defense and run game to keep them in this game and think they have a legit shot to win straight up so teasing over the TD feels like the safest tag with the Steelers.
The Jags embarrassed the Steelers in reg season 30-9 in a game that Bortles completed a total of 8 passes for 95 yards and an Interception. Jacksonville scored 2 TDs on defense in that game leading to a game script that seems impossible to replicate but necessary if the Jags are going to win here. Can’t see lightning striking twice.