Month: October 2018

Week 8 Picks

Week 7 I felt lucky to get away 2-2 after starting the morning 0-2 and then needing a missed FG in the Dallas – Washington game. We have 5 games on the card this week including a couple of hold your nose plays.


Week 7: 2-2

2018: 21- 11

Game 1: 2 team Teaser: Cle @ Pit -2.5 & Den @ KC-2.5

This play is obviously as square as it gets but I am trying to cash in on KC and ride this wave and using them in a teaser feels like the safest way, we did it last week and didn’t have to sweat it for even 5 seconds.  This is a game that Broncos will need to keep up in and that is a lot to ask of Case Keenum who is 28th in Total QBR, Broncos only road win this year was last week in Arizona, this is a bit of a step up.

The Browns to me are one of the 2 or 3 worst coached teams in the league, they are coming off of an OT loss on the road last week in Tampa, a game they should have won about 3 times. I don’t see them keeping this with a TD. (more…)

Week 6 Picks

Week 5 got off to a rough start in the morning but we swept the afternoon led by Russel Wilson and added another winning week to the tally. Lets keep it going for week 6.

russell wilson football GIF by Alaska Airlines

Week 5: 3 – 2

2018: 16-8

Game1: LAC pk @ Cle

Bet% LAC 60% Cle 40%

While Cleveland has improved this year and has already won 2 more games this year than all of last year this game at a pick is too much value on the Chargers. Chargers are 5th in DVOA to start the year while Cleveland is 25th. Cleveland is also coming off of 2 straight OT games including a big win vs divisional opponents Baltimore last week. This seems like a spot where the Browns get down early and struggle big after that, I like the Chargers by TD plus.

Game 2 : Car @ Was +1

Bet% Car 64% Was 36%

Last week Washington got blown out on MNF while the Panthers got a big save from the kicker who made a 63 yd FG to beat NYG at home. I think those 2 finishes get Us some value on Washington here who I believe should be favored. Before last week Washington was 12th in defensive DVOA, the Saints game dropped them to 24. At home, I expect that defense to get back to form and play well as I do with Alex Smith ehomolayed his worst game in 2 years.

Game 3: Bal @ Ten +2.5

Bet% Bal 43% Ten57%

The Ravens are playing in a situation that is almost an automatic fade me. they are playing their 3rd straight road game where they split their first 2. We also get the Titans in a good spot as they are coming off of their worst loss of the year LW in Buffalo after 3 straight wins vs Houston, the Jags and Eagles. Love the Titans here and think they win straight up

Game 4: TB @ Atl -3

Bet% TB 30% Atl 70%

This is basically the season for the Falcons and yes the defense is abysmal but it’s not hard to see a scenario where Jamie Winston doesn’t make a big mistake or too in this spot. The Falcons offense should have no trouble scoring against the Bucs defense ranked 32 in DVOA.

Week 5 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Wk 5

Week 5 2018

Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.

pat mahomes ii GIF by NFL

Week 4: 3-1

2018: 13 – 6

Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43

Bet% 53 Over 47% Under

Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5th in DVOA and have been especially good at home.  I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet. (more…)