Week 7 I felt lucky to get away 2-2 after starting the morning 0-2 and then needing a missed FG in the Dallas – Washington game. We have 5 games on the card this week including a couple of hold your nose plays.

 

Week 7: 2-2

2018: 21- 11

Game 1: 2 team Teaser: Cle @ Pit -2.5 & Den @ KC-2.5

This play is obviously as square as it gets but I am trying to cash in on KC and ride this wave and using them in a teaser feels like the safest way, we did it last week and didn’t have to sweat it for even 5 seconds.  This is a game that Broncos will need to keep up in and that is a lot to ask of Case Keenum who is 28th in Total QBR, Broncos only road win this year was last week in Arizona, this is a bit of a step up.

The Browns to me are one of the 2 or 3 worst coached teams in the league, they are coming off of an OT loss on the road last week in Tampa, a game they should have won about 3 times. I don’t see them keeping this with a TD. (more…)

We are now officially rolling with another winning week and now +10 on the season. There will undoubtedly be a week where it all crashes coming down but for now lets enjoy.

Wk 6: 3 -1 

2018: 19 -9

Game 1: Hou @ Jax -3.5

Bet% Hou 45% Jax 55%

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Week 5 got off to a rough start in the morning but we swept the afternoon led by Russel Wilson and added another winning week to the tally. Lets keep it going for week 6.

Week 5: 3 – 2

2018: 16-8

Game1: LAC pk @ Cle

Bet% LAC 60% Cle 40%

While Cleveland has improved this year and has already won 2 more games this year than all of last year this game at a pick is too much value on the Chargers. Chargers are 5th in DVOA to start the year while Cleveland is 25th. Cleveland is also coming off of 2 straight OT games including a big win vs divisional opponents Baltimore last week. This seems like a spot where the Browns get down early and struggle big after that, I like the Chargers by TD plus.

Game 2 : Car @ Was +1

Bet% Car 64% Was 36%

Last week Washington got blown out on MNF while the Panthers got a big save from the kicker who made a 63 yd FG to beat NYG at home. I think those 2 finishes get Us some value on Washington here who I believe should be favored. Before last week Washington was 12th in defensive DVOA, the Saints game dropped them to 24. At home, I expect that defense to get back to form and play well as I do with Alex Smith ehomolayed his worst game in 2 years.

Game 3: Bal @ Ten +2.5

Bet% Bal 43% Ten57%

The Ravens are playing in a situation that is almost an automatic fade me. they are playing their 3rd straight road game where they split their first 2. We also get the Titans in a good spot as they are coming off of their worst loss of the year LW in Buffalo after 3 straight wins vs Houston, the Jags and Eagles. Love the Titans here and think they win straight up

Game 4: TB @ Atl -3

Bet% TB 30% Atl 70%

This is basically the season for the Falcons and yes the defense is abysmal but it’s not hard to see a scenario where Jamie Winston doesn’t make a big mistake or too in this spot. The Falcons offense should have no trouble scoring against the Bucs defense ranked 32 in DVOA.

Week 5 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.

Week 4: 3-1

2018: 13 – 6

Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43

Bet% 53 Over 47% Under

Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5^th in DVOA and have been especially good at home.  I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet. (more…)