Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.
Week 4: 3-1
2018: 13 – 6
Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43
Bet% 53 Over 47% Under
Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5th in DVOA and have been especially good at home. I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet.
Game 2: 2 Team teaser Ten @ Buf +11.5 & Atl +9.5 @ Pit
I liked both the Bills and Falcons this week but couldn’t pull the trigger at the number so using them in a teaser here. Teasers have been money in the NFL as we have seen multiple weeks where you could have taken either side and won.
Titans are coming off of 2 very emotional ugly, close wins vs the Jags and Eagles, this fees like a natural let down place and Buffalo is not a fun place to travel to and play.
Atlanta has been ravaged by injuries on defense and has lost 3 1 score games on the final drive. At 1-3 this is a must win game and at this stage I trust their offense more than I trust the Steelers. I see this as a 1 score game and think Atl can win but they were my fav teaser play all week.
Game 3: GB @ Det +1
Bet% GB 61% Det 39%
The Packers will be without their #2 and #3 receivers in Cobb and Allison, they will also be without Jahir Alexander on defense. The Lions are not a team you can always count on but this feels like the perfect spot for them to get a win vs Rodgers. Packers didn’t look great last week vs the Bills, lost in Washington so I am not sure we really know how good this team is this year. This is really a play vs the Packers injuries and depth.
Game 4: Ari +3.5 @ SF
Bet% Ari 66% SF 34%
I think the Cardinals win this week. 49ers got a nice effort from CJ Bethard last week in the first game minus Jimmy G but now they are back at home with the season basically lost and injuries have piled up on both sides of the ball. \For the Cards Josh Rosen looked a little more comfortable as the game went on in his first start and it looked like the Cards were getting David Johnson more involved. The Arizona defense is the best unit on the field ranking 11th in DVOA
Game 5: LAR @ Sea +7.5
Bet% LAR 70% Sea 30%
There is no reason to really bet against the Rams, they are the most talented team in the NFL and Seattle looks to be a shell of its former self. I am on Seattle because this is the game the books will need more than any other this week. Every Teaser, every parlay and every public bet will be on the Rams. Seattle is still a great home field, it’s a divisional game, bet it hold your nose and hope to collect your winnings.