Week 3 was a big winner here as we went 5 and 1 on a big 6 card game and it has us going into week 4 like
LW: 5 – 1
2018: 10 – 5
Game 1: NO @ NYG +3.5
Bet% NO 57% NYG 43%
The Saints defense is really struggling to start the year and I expect that their issues will be worse on the road. In this game the Giants have the type of weapons that should be able to have a big game with OBJ and Barkley and keep the ball for the Giants. this is really just playing a number ie getting the hook at +3.5 and a hunch that the Saints are not quite as effective on both sides when on the road, outside on grass.
Game 2: Phi @ Ten Under 20.5 1st half
I am playing this game under in 1st half only because I think the the early game script for the Titans plays into the hands of the Eagles defense. The Titans are the most run heavy team in the league on first down and as long as the game is close. especially with Mariotta hampered with injury, the Titans will run. The Eagles run defense is #2 in DVOA, they were the #1 run defense last year and I cant see the Titans having much success with that game plan. For the Eagles, this will be Alshon Jeffrey’s 1st game this year, Carson Wentz playing just his 2nd, I think they start slow and have a hard time sustaining drives early in this game.
Game 3: 2 team teaser: Mia @ NE -0.5 & Cin +9.5 @ Atl
NE certainly feels like the public side and by all metrics the Dolphins are the right side but this game will really be the tell of who these teams are and I still think the Patriots are the team in the AFC East. If NE loses this game then the division really becomes difficult to win, a 3 game gap maybe too large to overcome. Miami is off to a great start but so far those wins have come against the have nots Oak, NYJ and Ten, we will see hw they play in a big spot on the road in a stadium they have never beat Brady.
The Falcons continue to lose key players on their defense losing starting SS Ricardo Allen who joins Keanu Neal and Deon Jones on the IR. That is the entire middle of the Falcons defense. Atl is coming off of an emotional divisional OT loss last week and playing a non conference opponent here, I can see a down performance.
I have been on the Bengals a couple of times this year and think they really are a complete team that is a playoff contender. I feel good using them in this teaser with a number this large but wouldn’t be surprised if they win straight up
Game 4: KC @ Den +4.5
Bet% KC 60% Den 40%
I am trying to not make a habit of betting against teams that are juggernauts, I think too often when we look at value it is against teams like the Chiefs and Rams but in short samples those teams can outperform the market and have 12 or 13 win year ATS. If the Chiefs win and cover here I will probably not be on the other side for the foreseeable future but this really is the perfect spot to play the Broncos. We have a divisional home dog on a prime time game, MNF with the much better defense ( 16 vs 32), I will plug my nose and take the Broncos.