LW: 3-3 plus 1 pending
Game 1: Dal @ Phi -3.5
This is obviously not an available line. On Sunday night, I kept looking to see what this line would open at and on one and only one book they opened at -3.5. I thought even if Andy Daulton plays that line is short but I also thought there was a 80 or 90% chance that Andy Daulton wouldn’t start and in that case I was getting incredible value. The line was taken down and reopened at -8.5 at which point I bet again in a teaser with the Packers.
Game 2: 2 Team 6 point Teaser Phi -2.5 & GB -0.5
So the case for the Eagles here is
- Obviously Dallas has a rookie QB who is the making his first career start with an injured offensive line that is playing poorly facing the #4 ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate, so this is an ideal matchup for the Eagles strength on defense.
- The Eagles are getting healthy. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be back this week to stabilize he offensive line, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedart will make their return to the offense and on defense Malik Jackson is back.
- The Eagles have been fantastic under Doug Pederson going into the bye, 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 18. All week there has been an excitement in Philadelphia of all the guys coming back, and playing against Dallas on SNF, I think we will a very good effort. The line has now also.moved from 8.5 – 9 to 11 sonics clear money is coming in on Philly.
I have an open teaser with the Packers with the Rams, so this is the second teaser I have tied to GB. There is some sharp money on the Vikings so this may end up being tight but I think the Packers have a number of advantages that will prove to be too much to overcome for the Vikings to win straight up. There also seems to be some money that came in based on Dalvin Cook playing and Aaron Jones being out but for the Packers Jamal Williams should be able to give GB 80-90% of wombat Jones would.
The Packers should be able to score their way out of any issues they run into in this game, I just don’t see how the Vikings defense holds up. What hasn’t been priced into this game are the cluster injuries Vikings have at corner where 3 of their top 4 are out leaving the following
1. Rd 1 rookie Jeff Gladney
2. Rd 5 rookie Harrison Hand
3. 2019 7th Kris Boyd
4. 2018 UDFA Chris Jones
Game 3: NO @ Chi +4.5
Bet% NO 61% Chi 39%
I like being on the Bears here after there bad performance on MNF against the Rams. That seemed like a perfect spot for LA and this one seems similarly set up for Chicago. The Saints come into Chicago minus their best player on offense WR Michael Thomas, as well as WR Emanual Sanders and last weeks hero WR Marquez Calloway. They are also missing starting center Nick Easton. Drew Brees has traditionally struggled on the road in outdoor games on grass and against the #6 DVOA defense I don’t see the Saints having a big game here.
The Bears are also expected to miss their # 1 target Allen Robinson but I think Nick Foles should have some success against the Saints defense who is giving up 29 points a game, 31.5 on the road. Between the injuries, the weather and the string Bears defense I just see them sticking around in this game and having a chance to win late in a similar game to the game 2 weeks ago when Chicago beat Tampa Bay.
Game 4: SF @ Sea -3
Bet% SF 45% Sea 55%
Early money came in on the 49ers but I am.more than happy to take Seattle at this cheap price. San Fran comes in again with injuries on offense, Deebo Samuel is out this week, as are the top 3 RBs. Maybe it really doesn’t matter who starts at RB in a Kyle Shanahan offense but I’m betting this week in a game where you know Seattle is going to score, SF missing all of their top playmaker outside of Kettle will matter.
I love getting Seattle off of a national TV loss where Wilson threw 2 interceptions. About 5 or 6 things had to go wrong in the last 5 mins of that Arizona game for Seattle to lose and they all did. Now we get them in the perfect bounce back spot against division rival and also good news on injury front where they get Jamal Adams back.
Game 5: LAC @ Den +3.5
Bet% LAC 59% Den 41%
Chargers are a very popular side this week, Justin Herbert has become the favorite for ROY and has made them LA a very fun team to watch. In this case I think the pendulum has swing too far and I don’t see how they should be a fav this big in Denver. Denver has one of the few home field advantages that actually remains with the altitude so we to need to factor that in, it means to me that you need to give them at least 2 points for that advantage.
Denver over the last 2 weeks beet NE in New England and then last week got blown out by the Chiefs but they actually were hanging in with KC until a pick 6 and KO return TD swung the game. The Broncos are a team that has played very well on the defensive side, they are 7th in defensive DVOA and 5th in adjusted sack rate. That is why I love them this week because they can get pressure and are playing a rookie QB who is going to play behind an offensive line with cluster injuries, 4 of their projected 5 starters are expected to miss this week. I expect we see a low scoring, 1 score game and certainly can see the Broncos winning this game outright.
Game 6: 2 team 6 point teaser: Oak + 8.5 @ Cle & Ind @ Det +9
I was on TB against the Raiders last week after the Raiders had a Covid scare on their offensive line which caused every lineman to miss the week of practices. I honestly never felt good about that game until late in the 4th quarter and was really impressed at how the Raiders offense played against the Bucs #1 the # DVOA defense. This line opened at 3.5 and was bet down to 2.5 and has started dropping even below that which let’s me know we are on the right side.
Detroit has also been a sharp side this week and feels like the perfect teaser side getting it through the 7 in this game. The thing that is interesting about the Colts is that they have played a really easy schedule, they have wins over the Jets, Vikings, Bengals and a loss to the Jags. The best team the Colts have played this year is the Bears so it is a hard team to get a read on but there offense has been extremely inefficient and it feels like a lot to ask this team to go on the road and win by a TD plus against a team that is playing pretty well right now.