Month: October 2020

Week 8 Picks 2020

LW: 3-3 plus 1 pending

2020- 16-24-1

Game 1: Dal @ Phi -3.5

This is obviously not an available line. On Sunday night, I kept looking to see what this line would open at and on one and only one book they opened at -3.5. I thought even if Andy Daulton plays that line is short but I also thought there was a 80 or 90% chance that Andy Daulton wouldn’t start and in that case I was getting incredible value.  The line was taken down and reopened at -8.5 at which point I bet again in a teaser with the Packers.

Game 2: 2 Team 6 point Teaser Phi -2.5 & GB -0.5

So the case for the Eagles here is

  1. Obviously Dallas has a rookie QB who is the making his first career start with an injured offensive line that is playing poorly facing the #4 ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate, so this is an ideal matchup for the Eagles strength on defense.
  2. The Eagles are getting healthy. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be back this week to stabilize he offensive line, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedart will make their return to the offense and on defense Malik Jackson is back.
  3. The Eagles have been fantastic under Doug Pederson going into the bye, 4-0 with an average margin of victory of 18. All week there has been an excitement in Philadelphia of all the guys coming back, and playing against Dallas on SNF, I think we will a very good effort. The line has now also.moved from 8.5 – 9 to 11 sonics clear money is coming in on Philly.

I have an open teaser with the Packers with the Rams, so this is the second teaser I have tied to GB. There is some sharp money on the Vikings so this may end up being tight but I think the Packers have a number of advantages that will prove to be too much to overcome for the Vikings to win straight up. There also seems to be some money that came in based on Dalvin Cook playing and Aaron Jones being out but for the Packers Jamal Williams should be able to give GB 80-90% of wombat Jones would.

The Packers should be able to score their way out of any issues they run into in this game, I just don’t see how the Vikings defense holds up. What hasn’t been priced into this game are the cluster injuries Vikings have at corner where 3 of their top 4 are out leaving the following

1. Rd 1 rookie Jeff Gladney

2. Rd 5 rookie Harrison Hand

3. 2019 7th Kris Boyd

4. 2018 UDFA Chris Jones

Game 3: NO @ Chi +4.5

Bet% NO 61% Chi 39%

I like being on the Bears here after there bad performance on MNF against the Rams. That seemed like a perfect spot for LA and this one seems similarly set up for Chicago. The Saints come into Chicago minus their best player on offense WR Michael Thomas, as well as WR Emanual Sanders and last weeks hero WR Marquez Calloway. They are also missing starting center Nick Easton. Drew Brees has traditionally struggled on the road in outdoor games on grass and against the #6 DVOA defense I don’t see the Saints having a big game here.

The Bears are also expected to miss their # 1 target Allen Robinson but I think Nick Foles should have some success against the Saints defense who is giving up 29 points a game, 31.5 on the road. Between the injuries, the weather and the string Bears defense I just see them sticking around in this game and having a chance to win late in a similar game to the game 2 weeks ago when Chicago beat Tampa Bay.

Game 4: SF @ Sea -3

Bet% SF 45% Sea 55%

Early money came in on the 49ers but I am.more than happy to take Seattle at this cheap price. San Fran comes in again with injuries on offense, Deebo Samuel is out this week, as are the top 3 RBs. Maybe it really doesn’t matter who starts at RB in a Kyle Shanahan offense but I’m betting this week in a game where you know Seattle is going to score, SF missing all of their top playmaker outside of Kettle will matter.

I love getting Seattle off of a national TV loss where Wilson threw 2 interceptions. About 5 or 6 things had to go wrong in the last 5 mins of that Arizona game for Seattle to lose and they all did. Now we get them in the perfect bounce back spot against division rival and also good news on injury front where they get Jamal Adams back.

Game 5: LAC @ Den +3.5

Bet% LAC 59% Den 41%

Chargers are a very popular side this week, Justin Herbert has become the favorite for ROY and has made them LA a very fun team to watch. In this case I think the pendulum has swing too far and I don’t see how they should be a fav this big in Denver. Denver has one of the few home field advantages that actually remains with the altitude so we to need to factor that in, it means to me that you need to give them at least 2 points for that advantage.

Denver over the last 2 weeks beet NE in New England and then last week got blown out by the Chiefs but they actually were hanging in with KC until a pick 6 and KO return TD swung the game. The Broncos are a team that has played very well on the defensive side, they are 7th in defensive DVOA and 5th in adjusted sack rate. That is why I love them this week because they can get pressure and are playing a rookie QB who is going to play behind an offensive line with cluster injuries, 4 of their projected 5 starters are expected to miss this week. I expect we see a low scoring, 1 score game and certainly can see the Broncos winning this game outright.

Game 6: 2 team 6 point teaser: Oak + 8.5 @ Cle & Ind @ Det +9

I was on TB against the Raiders last week after the Raiders had a Covid scare on their offensive line which caused every lineman to miss the week of practices. I honestly never felt good about that game until late in the 4th quarter and was really impressed at how the Raiders offense played against the Bucs #1 the # DVOA defense. This line opened at 3.5 and was bet down to 2.5 and has started dropping even below that which let’s me know we are on the right side.

Detroit has also been a sharp side this week and feels like the perfect teaser side getting it through the 7 in this game. The thing that is interesting about the Colts is that they have played a really easy schedule, they have wins over the Jets, Vikings, Bengals and a loss to the Jags. The best team the Colts have played this year is the Bears so it is a hard team to get a read on but there offense has been extremely inefficient and it feels like a lot to ask this team to go on the road and win by a TD plus against a team that is playing pretty well right now.

Week 7 Picks: TNF

When you thought it couldnt get worse, I caught every bad break last week. The Texans had no business not covering that game, The SF-Rams game started exactly how you would want for the over and then Mostert goes out and both teams don’t score at all in 2nd half and the same situation with TB and GB. The Vikings was just a terrible bet. Going to take a lot going right to pull out of this hole.

LW: 2-6

2020: 13-21-1

Game 1: NYG @ Phi -4

Bet% NYG 37% Phi 63%

I love the Eagles in this spot on TNF. The Eagles have just come off of a run of playing @ SF, @ Pit and home to Baltimore, even with all of the injuries SF that was a murderers row especially considering the Eagles ended the Ravens game with just 2 projected starters on offense, Wentz and Kelce. The Eagles kept some guys out last week with focus on this must win on TNF and are getting Lane Johnson, Desean Jackson and Avante Maddux back. In the meantime they found a reciever in Travis Fulgham that Carson Wentz trusts and Wentz has been much better the last 3 weeks (PFF grade 76.6, rank 9th) after being one of the worst QBs in the league the first 3 (PFF Grade 47.3 rank 31st). That improvement by Wentz has happened with a make shift offensive line and backups at reciever.

The Giants present a perfect get right opponent for the Eagles, on defense the Giants are 12th in adjusted pass rush which is fine but not anywhere near the Steelers and Ravens who the Eagles faced the last 2 weeks, with Lane Johnson back at RT the Eagles should be able to protect Wentz who was hit 16 times last week and allow him to test the Giants 23rd ranked pass defense by DVOA.

On Offense the Giants are dead last in DVOA and the Eagles and their 4th ranked Defensive line in adjusted sack rate should be able to get all types of pressure on Daniel Jones and maybe create a few turnovers. I like the Eagles to win by at least a TD here.

Game 2: TB -4 @ LV

Bet% TB 62% LV 38%

I totally understand why everyone was on the Raiders in this game to start the week basically fading them coming off of a season defining win vs the Packers last week. After the Trent Brown Covid news this game got taken off of the board when it was TB -2.5, I thought it would come back close to a TD but instead it opened at 4. The entire Raiders offensive line has been in quarantine and are questionable for this game, maybe everyone besides Brown plays in this game but even then it it is a lot to ask them to play well against the #2 ranked defensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate and the overall #1 DVOA defense. Todd Bowles has been terrific as the TB defensive coordinator and I can see him putting in a very good plan to take advamtage of the Raiders line not being able to practice all week.

Game 3: Sea @ Ari Under 55

Bet% Sea 63% Ari 37%

Seattle has played in shootouts all year and deserves to be tagged with one of the highest totals of the week but this seems like the right spot to see a lower scoring game. One I don’t think the Seattle defense is as bad as it has been though the start of the year and we will see them regress to closer to a league average type defense.

Arizona is interesting because they are known as a offensive team because they have an exciting coach and their head coach is known for his air raid style offense but they have been a stone cold under team all year, totals in Cardinals games have gone under in 5 of 6 games and it makes sense because they are ranked 10th in defense by DVOA and their offense ranks 12th overall but their passing offense is 18th. Add in the fact that this is a divisional game, both their games last season finished with low totals (40,37) and went under.

Game 4: 2 Team 6 point Teaser: KC -1.5 @ Den & Jac @ LAC -1

The Chiefs- Broncos total dropped from 49 to 45 and the line dropped from 9 to 7.5 because of weather reports in Denver where it is expected to be cold and some chance of snow. That gives us a great opportunity to use the Chiefs in a teaser, the Chiefs on offense now cn win really anyway they like, they can win track meets and they can also grind out on ground like they did on MNF against the Bills. Denver is coming off of a big win in New England in a game where they didn’t score 1 TD. That won’t work here.

In their last 4 games, the Jags have looked a lot like the team we expected at the start of the year going 0-4 with an average losing margin of 15, Only the Bengals (8), didn’t beat them by double digits. Maybe they come out and play well when nobody expects it but with further injuries on defense, this week they will be without Myles Jack and Josh Allen, I don’t see them winning straight up.

Game 5: Pit @ Ten Over 50.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

This is is one of the marque games of the weekend I think has a chance to be one of the biggest offensive shootouts of the week. The Steelers defense has been great all year #2 in DVOA overall, #1 vs the pass and #8 vs the pass but this will be their first game without LB Devin Bush and they will also be without starting corner Mike Hilton. The Titans are also just a very different offense to match up to and their OC Art Smith does a terrific job of game planning. The Titans are 3rd in offensive DVOA, #2 in passing and possess one of the biggest threats in the league to break off a long run in Derek Henry. The Eagles scored 29 against the Steelers in week 5 and I see the Titans having a similar total here.

On the flip side this will be the first week the Steelers will have all of their weapons on offense as Diontae Johnson will be available after missing the last 3 weeks to pair up with JuJu and the Chase Claypool who has been a massive weapon for Pittsburgh the last 3 weeks. The Titans are 22nd in defensive DVOA and 24th vs the pass. I can definitly see both teams get into the 30’s.

Game 6: Buf @ NYJ Over 45.5

Bet% Over 43% Under 57%

This game has seen the line move around all week, it opened at 11 and got bet up to 13 and then as the injury reports came out the line started dropping and now we have mostly 10’s all around. For me, I can’t back the Jets side here but I think it is safe to expect them to play better on offense this week and that brings me to the over.

The Bills rank 29th in defensive DVOA and will likely be without their best corner Tre’Davious White, they should get LB Matt Milano back but he still may not be 100%. For the Jets they are getting much healthier for this game, Mekhi Becton will be back in this game, Denzel Mims should be back in this game and the big news is that Sam Darnold is expected to be back and starting in this game.

The Bills offense has been terrific all year and coming off of 2 straight losses I can see them coming out and having a big game here, The Jets have given up 30 or more in 4 of the 6 games this year and I certainly think Bills are capable of hitting 30 here.

Game 7: 2 team 6 point Teaser: Chi @ LAR pk & Week 8 Min @ GB -0.5

I ended up using the Chiefs in a few additional teasers to the Chargers one above, one was with the 49ers and then another was with the Rams. With the line moving for the Rams today to 6.5 I like their side even more today and am going to use them in a teaser with the Packers again the Vikings coming up.

Chicago is probably the team that has underplayed their record more than any other team, at 5-1 they rank 14th in DVOA overall and 26th on offense. This feels like a nice spot to buy on the Rams who are coming off a very tough loss on SNF, I think they will be able to score on this very good BEars defense, the line move gives me more confidense they are the right side but in the teaser I just need them to win.

The Packers just seem like a team that are like the neighborhood bully, they feast on bad teams and with the Vikings trading Ngakwe and putting Danielle Hunter on IR, I can see another big game Rodgers game against this secondary. I will probably adding the Packers to a few different teasers.

Week 6 Picks 2020

LW: 2-3

2020: 11-15-1

Game 1: Cin +8 @ Ind

Bet% Cin 56% Ind 44%

This game is a priced correctly when we look at these teams by performance, the Colts are 6th and the Bengals are 30th in DVOA but the Colts offense is not one I think you can trust with TD plus lines, the offense is 25th and it wouldn’t surprise me if they go back to a more conservative offense after last week got away from them. In weeks 2-5 the Colts passed on first and 2nd down ( within 10 pt game) 53% vs Min,47% vs NYJ and 21% vs the Bears. In their Week 1 and 5 losses they were over 60% passing. Even though Frank Reich knows passing is more efficient, in this game with the issues Rivers is having I can see him going to a heavier run game and just grinding this game out.

The Bengals have been getting killed by pressure, their offensive line is 32nd in adjusted sack rate but the Colts aren’t a defense that is great at getting pressure, they rank 20th in adjusted sack rate and they are likely to be without their best defensive player Darius Leanard who did not participate in any practices this week. Joe Burrow has managed to cover 3 games with late scores and I like the chances of something like that here as well.

Game 2: Atl @ Min -4

Bet% Atl 33% Min 67%

It is always risky going against these winless teams especially one that has a talented QB and coming off the firing of a coach so there is some concern but I do like the spot for the Vikings. For the Falcons, I don’t see some big emotional lift from the firing of their coach as all indictions are that Quinn was a very popular coach with his players which is different than what we saw in Houston. The Falcons are just also extremely banged up on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota has had a very interesting season so far, they started out priced as a middle of road team and gt blown out the first 2 weeks to the Packers and Colts and everyone basically sold all their Colts stock. Then from there they won a shootout at home vs the Titans in a game where everyone was on the Titans, beat Houston in Houston and then last week beat Seattle for basically 95% of the game before getting beat on the last play by Russell Wilson. The Vikings are back in the NFC playoff picture and this is game that I think they know they have to have and with the bye next week this should be a full effort game. I am not worried about the Dalvin Cook injury as I expect Mattison to give 95% of what Cook would and vs the Falcons that should be more than enough.

Game 3: LAR @ SF Over 51.5

This total comes in at basically the average score of games through 2020 and I think we are getting value on this due to the way the 49ers offense has looked the last couple of weeks. 2 weeks ago the 49ers had Nick Mullens start and Deebo Samuel was playing in his first game of the year. Last week Garapolo started but was clearly not close to 100% and got pulled. This week Garapolo has practiced in full each day so this will be the first game this year that the 49ers will have their starters at the skill positions and as a result I like them to  have one of their better performances on offense.

The Rams should also have no problem moving the ball against this mash unit the 49ers are fielding on defense, last week the Dolphins were able to use their big WRs down the field against the 3rd and 4th string secondary players that are starting. The Rams receivers win in a different way then just down the field speed but I still expect them to be able to score pretty easily against this group.

Game 4: 2 Team 6pt Teaser Car @ Chi +7.5 & Ari @ Dal+7.5

I am taking the Bears and Cowboys in a teaser, this is really just playing the number, both games move through the 3 and 7 giving us maximum value for the teaser and in both cases the line has dropped in favor of the dogs and has pick at numerous books. There is a lot of sharp money on both these sides and I could certainly see both win straight up.

The Panthers have been one of the best surprises of the season but I think this is the spot to sell high. The Bears will bring the best pass defense that the Panthers have faced so far, they are on extra rest after playing on TNF and this is exactly the type of defense that Nick Foles can have success again.

For the Cowboys, this line has just moved too much after the Dak injury. Andy Daulton is one of the 2 or 3 best back ups in the league and could still be a starter on a number of teams. The Cardinals got right last week vs the Jets but their perception as an offensive juggernaut doesn’t fit, the Cards are 20th in DVOA and have not played great defenses. The Cowboys also catch a break as the Cards lost their best pass rusher Chandler Jones so for one week their offensive line injuries shouldn’t be major issue for Daulton.

Game 5: GB @ TB Over 55

Definitely did not get the best of this number as it has moved 3 points since opening and traditionally I could not imagine going over 55 but in a season where the average game total is at 51 I still think this is too low.

The first thing I like about this game is that both offenses are getting their best WRS back, the Packers get Devante Adams and the Bucs get Chris Godwin back. The Packers are -0 and playing great offense but the defense has really struggled, they gave up 30+ to the Saints and Vikings and the 2 games they held the offenses down the Lions and Falcons were extremely banged up. I think both teams get into the 30’s in this game and what I like is both QB’s are known for 2 minute drives so as long as the game stays score we should see both teams consistently hunting for points.

Game 6: 6 Pt Teaser: Den @ NE -2 and GB @ TB +7.5

Waited for the TB game to go back to +1.5 to add them to his teaser and getting them through both the 3 and the 7. This has been one of the sharps sides all week with this line dropping from 3 to 1 and then just moving from 1 to 1.5. While I think the Packers are clearly better than we thought at the start of the season, they still have mostly beaten pretty mediocre or poor teams this year (Atl, Det (missing Golliday), Min) and TB will be a big step up. I also like getting TB off of that bad loss to Chicago on TNF.

The Patriots are coming off of extra long rest and get both Cam and Stephon Gilmore back in this game. Belicheck is always murder vs young QBs and here we get Drew Lock back in his first game minus his #1 WR, #1RB, #1TE, and #3WR.

Game 7: Adding Det -3 @ Jac

Bet% Det 65% Jac 35%

Adding Det late here and really the bet is just that with Golliday back this offense can carry the Lions and that the Jags are actually the team we projected them to be in the offseason and not the team we saw in weeks 1 and 2. The Jags are 27th in DVOA and while they will get DJ Chark and a couple of key players back on defense, they were still not all full participants in practice and I wonder how they will look like in this game.

I think we are getting a bit of a discount on the Lions because of the record but really after the first 2 weeks where they were ravaged by injuries, the Lions have looked like the team they were expected to be in the offseason as they went into Arizona and beat the Cards and then in week 4 played the Saints tough and lost by 1 score.

Game 8: Hou +3.5 @ Ten

Bet% Hou 42% Ten 58%

This is a game 5hat I have been staring at all week and the line hasn’t moved at all and it is just too much value to pass on in the end. The Titans go from being 3.5 pointbdogs on Tuesday to 3.5 point favorites after winning another game where the score didn’t really reflect the box score. There has been no team who has benefited from turnover luck more than Tennessee as through 4 games they are an incredible +8. Even with that TO luck, their margin of victory through the first 3 weeks was +6, despite playing Denver, Jacksonville and the Vikings.

Compare that schedule above to the Titans who opened the season against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers. Houston has been on the other side of turnover luck at -5 through 5 games, the schedule early certainly didn’t help. I think these teams are actually very close in talent and had they played the same schedule would have very similar records, they are not 3.5 wins apart as they currently stand. Getting the extra hook on the FG is just too good to pass on.

Week 5 2020 Picks

I think this has been the most difficult first quarter of a season I have had since posting picks on this blog, you hate to talk about unlucky but the truth is that so many of these games come down to plinko type ends that there are going to be runs where more of these finishes go against you then for you. We hope that starts turning here. I did have a nice size bet on the Eagles ML last week that did help salvage the week but no doubt we have taken some hits to start the year.

Cobra Kai GIF by NETFLIX

LW: 2-4

2020- 9-12-1

Game 1: Phi +7.5 @ Pit

Bet% 34% Pit 66%

Eagles are coming off of their first win of the year, it is a short week after playing SNF but I think the plus of getting the team feeling good, getting Wentz playing his best game and the defensive line playing their best game that I can see a path to this being a close game late. The real test for the Eagles will be if their new offensive line can hold up against one of the best front 7’s in the league. The Steelers are tied for 1st in adjusted sack rate and are 2nd in total sacks with 15. The Eagles offensive line is 20th in adjusted sack rate but 8 of the 14 sacks they have given up were in the first game vs Washington. The Eagles have changed their offensive game plan since that game going to a more quick passing game, they also have 3 different starters but the Steelers are clearly the best pass rush they have faced since WFT. This game will be the real test case of have the Eagles figured out a way to protect Wentz or did they just play teams that couldn’t get the rush going the last few weeks.

The other main reason for me taking the Eagles here is that we just don’t know how good the Steelers are yet. The 3 teams the Steelers have beat so far this year (NYG, Den, Hou) are a combined 1-11 and the Steelers weren’t overly impressive in any of those games. Steelers are 23rd in run defense DVOA, I think the Eagles can slow them down on offense and stay close in a low scoring game.

Game 2: Ind @ Cle Under 48

Bet% Over 49% Under 51%

I think this number is boosted for 2 reasons, one just the overall scoring and overs that have cashed and secondly the Browns game last week vs Cowboys which was a crazy game that ended with a total of 87 points. In both these teams we have teams that want to run the ball, in fact on 1st and 2nd down these are the 2 teams with the highest rush percentage at 56%. The Colts combine that high run percentage with one of the slowest paced offenses in the league, in neutral situation games the Colts are the 3rd slowest team in the league. The Browns are 21st in pace but that is after playing the number 1 pace team in the league last week in the Cowboys who dragged the Browns to a faster pace game than they normally want to play.

So we have to run heavy teams that have bottom 3rd pace stats in neutral situations and oh yeah the Colts defense is the #1 defense in DVOA. Even if you think that rating is helped by playing poor defenses and hey won’t finish #1 or top 5 they are still probably a top 10 defense. The Colts have the 24th ranked offense by DVOA and I think it is hard to see that offense exploding this week against a Browns defense that is about league average.

Game 3: 6pt Teaser Ari -1 @ NYJ & Car +8.5

There are a handful of games at 7 that we can bring down to 1 and in the end I was deciding between 2, The Cards and the Rams. I ended up going with Arizona because they are coming off of 2 losses and have Dallas and Seattle in the next 2 weeks so this is a game they have to have. The Jets are a team nobody want to bet any money on which can be scary but with Flacco starting and all the injuries, I don’t think his is the week they jump up and get a win.

The Panthers saw some early money on them as this line got moved from the 3.5 open to all the way down to 1 and then back up to 2.5. I can see the Falcons winning their first game but they have so many injuries that it is hard to expect them to be the offense they were in the first few weeks. Julio Jones is questionable and last week only played 15 snaps, Calvin Ridley is probable but also wasn’t 100% this week in practice. The Panthers have been a much better team than expected to start the year and I think considering the injuries it is fair to ask if the wrong team is favored. Either way, I like taking them through the TD here just in case this is the week Atlanta gets it going.

Game 4: Mia +8 @ SF

Bet% Mia 70% SF 30%

Last week I was on Miami at home to Seattle +6 and the game ended up playing mostly how you would hope for with a big dog, both teams moved the ball, Seattle outgained Miami 441 to 415 but Miami ended up settling for 5 FGs and was just 1-3 in the red zone. Now this week they go to San Francisco and play another NFC West titan but this one is one of the most injured teams in the league. The 49ers will be missing most of their secondary ( 6 DBs are out this week) and the Dolphins come in with a pretty healthy and talented WR corps lead by Devante Parker and Preston Williams. The Dolphins also have one of the more talented secondaries so if the 49ers struggle running the ball minus their top 2 RBs, the pass offense should struggle even with Jimmy Garoppolo back.

This could be the last start for Ryan Fitzpatrick if this goes poorly so I think we will see him be more aggressive than he was last week and totally locked in while the 49ers have  a big divisional game on primetime next week with their SNF game vs the Rams.

Added Game 5: Jax +5.5 @ Hou

Bet%: Jax 43% Hou 57%

I am going to bite on the Jags. This line opened at 6.5 dropped below 6 and has stayed there despite majority of bets on Texans. I think a lot of the positivity on Texans has been due to the firing of Bill O’Brien and the emotional uptick that gives Houston but this is still a 0-4 team that is favored by 5.5 in a game that nobody would be shocked if the Jags won. Jags were a popular underdog last week and didn’t cover against the Bengals but I am fine riding them again here.

Games I have not bet but could add on Sunday.

Cin +13 @ Bal

I have stared at this game all week and what scares me is everyone is on the Bengals. The Ravens have not looked like the same juggernaut as last year but what they have made a habit is beating up on bad teams.

Week 4 Picks 2020

I really liked last week’s card and it looked like there was a shot at a big week but once again we ended up splitting the cards with the SNF loss for the Saints.

Happy Lets Go GIF by QuickBooks

LW: 3-3

2020: 7-8-1

Game 1: Jax +3 @ Cin

Bet% Jax 63% Cin 37%

This is one of the few games I bet early this week and got the best of the number with the full 3. I really don’t see how you can make a winless Bengals team that has been a dog in every game this year, a fav of this size. I think based on the first 3 weeks of this season I would make the Jags a fav on a neutral field and I don’t know how you can make the home field worth much here, maybe a point.

I like getting the Jags off of their worst effort of the season and especially since it was a Thursday so they are on extra rest.

The total in this game has been bet up this week from the 45 opener to 49 and in that type of game I like the team with the better offense to win. The Jaguars offense has been extremely efficient to start the year, they are 7th in offensive DVOA and 5th in success rate, the Bengals rank 27th and 21st comparatively.

The Bengals have covered 2 of their 3 games and pushed the other and Joe Burrow has looked good late in games but I am not sold on Zach Taylor’s game management and the poor offensive line play creates erratic throws from Burrow. I think the Jags win this one straight up.

Game 2: Sea @ Mia +6

Bet% Sea 71% Mia 29%

This is not a game where we are going to find a lot of numbers or matchups that favor the Dolphins, this really all about the situation and trying to catch the Seahawks in a bad schedule spot. Seattle is off to a great start due almost entirely to the incredible play of Russell Wilson who is the early favorite for MVP. Seattle is coming off of 2 very high profile games at home vs the Patriots on SNF and then the Cowboys and ended up winning both games in exciting shootouts. Now Seattle has to fly across country and play the Dolphins in hot and humid Florida where Miami is waiting with extra rest after playing on TNF. Seattle’s defense is 23rd in DVOA and should leave the back door cover open for Fitzpatrick.

Finally, just following the line move here, this game opened at Sea -6.5, over 70% of the bets are on Seattle yet the line is dropping to 6 and 5.5 in some spots so clearly there is money on Miami.

Game 3: LAC @ TB Under 43

Bet Over 54% 46%

This line has been dropping since the opener at 45.5 as sharps bet under 45, under 44 and at 43 I definitely have a bad number but I am jumping in as the I think the matchups and injuries definitely point this game to a low scoring game.

Lets start with the injuries, TB will be without #1 or 1A WR Chris Godwin, #3 WR Scotty Thomas missed practice all week and is doubtful and Lenard Fournett is out.

The Chargers injury situation is even more grim, The Chargers will be minus 3 starters on the offensive line, and WR Mike Williams. This will be an impossible situation for Justin Herbert in his first road start, flying cross country, playing the #2 DVOA defense while missing 3 starters on the offensive line. I can see a game script for TB where they get up early and play conservative, run the ball and try to just get out with a win.

Game 4: Min @ Hou -3.5

Bet% Min 32% 68%

We have two playoff teams from last year that are off to 0-3 starts but for me they are in very different situations. Houston has had to start the year with the most difficult schedule for the first 3 weeks of any team in the league opening @ the Chiefs, then playing the Ravens and last week against the Steelers. I think you can make the case that Houston has started with the top 3 AFC teams and the top 2 teams in the entire league. This feels like a good buy low spot for Houston based on who they have played.

 For Minnesota, they have lost an incredible amount of talent on defense, and are giving up almost 300 yards passing per game, their only road game was at the Colts and they were blown out in that game.

We also get good news on the injury front for Houston as they are expected to have Will Fuller back at 100% and Minnesota will be minus their top 3 corners.

Game 5: Ind -2.5 @ Chi

Bet% Ind 53% Chi 47%

I struggled pulling the trigger on this game as it is one where I keep thinking it feels too easy and maybe it’s a trap. The Colts are the #1 team in DVOA, both their lines are in the top 5 in adjusted sack rate and will have mismatches in this game.

The Bears are 3-0 but in both week 1 and week 3 they were down 2 TDs going into the 4th quarter before having incredible 4th quarter comebacks. The Bears have probably upgraded at QB with Foles but  he can be quite volatile in his performances week to week and Frank Reich is one of the coaches that knows Foles game the best so he should have a good plan to defend the Bears passing game.

Adding Game 6: SNF Phi +9.5 @ SF

Bet% Phi 51% SF%

With all the injuries the Eagles have on offense, they only team that has more is the San Francisco 49ers. It’s hard to make a case for the Eagles based on what we have seen in the first 3 weeks but if you were to list the players available in this game and name the top 4, Kittle would probably be the #1 available player but I think you can make a case that the next 3 would be Wentz, Sanders, and Ertz. Obviously wentz has been nowhere near his previous level of play this year but I am going to take one more shot here as a huge dog and see if they can pull out a good performance.

The Eagles under Doug Pederson have a history of winning these road games as big dogs when everyone is counting them out. Last year after starting 1-2 with 2 bad losses @ Atl and home to Detroit, the Eagles went on the road to Green Bay who was 3-0 and won that game straight up as a 6.5 point underdog. In 2018, the Eagles were double digit underdogs to the Rams after a terrible loss to the Saints and missing a number of key guys and won that game straight up as well.

As ugly as the Eagles start has been, a win tonight and they move to first in the terrible NFC East, I think that matters. As for the 49ers, they have done a great job despite all of their injuries but it is hard to expect back ups and young players to play at a high level week in and week out and this is a huge number for Nick Mullins to cover at QB. One last shot on the Eagles with a sprinkle on the moneyline as well.