Month: November 2016

2016 Week 12 Picks

Thanksgiving Week in the NFL is an interesting one because we have the full day of games on Thursday and then because so many people are off and at home watching games we see a lot of money on games and larger bet% splits because there is so much public money in market. We hit on our one Turkey Day pick with Washington +7 and hope to continue our hot streak with this week’s cards. I have a feeling there will be a lot of work Sunday morning and some additional picks not listed because if the public money shows up Sat night and Sunday morning we might see some additional value.

Week 11: 4 – 1

2016 (Through Week 11): 37-23-2

Game 1: Was +7 @ Dal

Game 2: Cin @ Bal Under 41.5

Bet% Over 42% Under 58%

The Bengals had as bad a week as you can have last week, not only did they lose at home to the Bills effectively ending any hopes of making the playoffs, they also lost AJ Green for the foreseeable future and Geo Bernard for the season. We saw the Bengals last week struggle on offense vs  the Bills who are good on defense but basically league average, Bengals were shut out in the 2nd half and averaged just 4.2 yards per play for the game.

The Ravens are a much better defense than the Bills especially vs the run. I expect the Bengals want to lean heavily on Jeremy Hill in this game with no AJ Green and Bernard and the Ravens are the #1 run defense by DVOA and yards per att. Bengals passing game will rely heavily on the TE Eifert, remember they started the season without their #2 and #3 WRs from the last few years Jones and Sanu and neither Lefel of Boyd has made an impact this season. Add to all this that the Bengal’s offensive line has been one of the worst all year, currently 26th in adjusted sack rate.

The Ravens offense has been a problem all year, they’re 30th in offensive DVOA and the offense is averaging just 18.1 points per game despite not having faced many elite defenses. I’m not sure either team hits 20 in this game and think we are most likely to see a score somewhere around 17-13. (more…)

Week 11 Results: 4-1 Plus Thanksgiving Day Pick

This week’s review includes a bonus Turkey day pick. Week 11 continued our hot streak from Week 10 as for the first time this year we had big back to back weeks. Unders were a major part of the week 11 card and even though 2 of the 3 games we bet went under we only ended up 1-1 in those games. Whats frustrating is that the Vikings-Cards game was one of only 2 games on the entire schedule that went over (12 of the 14 week 11 games went under) and you will read below it had no business going over. Still a 4-1 week is a great week and our season record is now over 61%

shinsuke-week-11

Thanksgiving Day Pick (Week 12)

Game 1: Was +7 @ Dal

Bet% Was 48% Dal 52%

Betting against the Cowboys has been about as bad a bet as there has been on the card as they have won 9 straight games not just straight up but ATS. That winning streak means that the price to bet Dallas keeps going up and getting the full TD here is too much value to pass up.

Lets first start off with the fact this is a divisional game and if we look at the Cowboys 3 toughest games of the season so far they are unquestionably the loss in the opener to the Giants, Week 2 in Washington and the comeback OT win at home vs the Eagles. Washington lost that week 2 game 27-23 and while the Cowboys are a much better team now than they were them so is Washington.

Washington has been steadily moving up in league rankings, in week 4 they ranked 14th in DVOA, currently they are 7th, the Cowboys comparatively rank 4th.   There is no question that Cowboys have a major advantage in the run game, Dallas has the #1 rushing offense and Washington in my numbers ranks 28th but there is some light in the tunnel as over their last 3 games Washington has given up just 3.7 yards per rush att compared to 4.6 on the season. Those 3 games were against the Vikings, Bengals and Lions so nowhere near the calibre of the Cowboys but there are some signs that Washington’s run defense is tightening up.

In the end I expect both offenses to have a lot of success in this game, we have seen the over get bet from 49 to 51 and like the other 3 divisional games I expect a close 1 score game.

Week 11 Review: 4 Wins 1 Loss

Updated 2016:  37-23-2

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2016 Week 11 Picks

Every week is different, there are weeks where games jump out right away, there are weeks where nothing looks good until the weekend. This week as I scanned the card early nothing jumped out and by the time I did like a few games we saw some big line movements, especially in the totals.  We are in the part of the season where weather begins to play a larger part and Sharps will start hitting unders early in the week either anticipating winter conditions or simply getting some insurance just in case. Something I will start doing as well on Sunday Nights. To get around the line drives I am playing a teaser card on unders and I anticipate I will be playing a lot more unders.

Week 10: 5-2

2016: 33-22-2

2015: 63-37-3

 

Game 1: Ari @ Min Under 40

Bet% Over 39% Under 61%

When looking at playing unders one of the things that I think gives the best chances if there is a mis-match between the defensive lines and offensive lines and it is rare we see a game where both sides have an advantage like we see in this game.

The Vikings issues on the offensive line have been well documented and it should get even worse because they lost starting T Jake Long for the season this week. The fact that it will get appreciably worse because they lost a player that was a street FA and arguably not even a replacement level player tells you everything. According to DVOA, Vikings are 31st in run blocking, 22 in pass blocking and  26th in overall sack percentage giving up sacks on 7% of pass plays but in the last 3 games that number shoots up to 9.92%.

Meanwhile the Cards pass rush has been really good, they are 12th in adjusted sack rate,7th in total sack % and #1 in my pressure rankings which include QB hits and hurries. Arizona is 4th in defensive DVOA and 3rd vs the pass, since Vikings only chance to move the ball is in air as they are not just last in rushing but are historically bad averaging only 2.7 yards per rush.

On flip side we have seen the Vikings defence slip a little during this 4 game losing streak, after 5 weeks they were 2nd in Defensive DVOA, they are now 6th but to put that slide into perspective, over the season the opp passer rating is 74.6 but over last 3 weeks it has been 99.3, same with yards per pass att which is at 5.8 for season but 7.2 for last 3 weeks. Now I think there are 2 reasons for this, 1 is fatigue, the Vikings offense doesn’t stay on field and as a result Vikings defense has played a lot more snaps. The second is injuries, Vikings have had key players like Eric Kendricks, Zavier Woods miss games.

Vikings defense should be healthy in this game and they have a very good matchup against the Cards offensive line as the Cards line is 24th in adjusted sack rate.

I also like the home road splits for this under, the Vikings at home have an opp passer rating of 68.6 vs 80.2 on road and we know Carson Palmer has his issues on the road. Palmer has a passer rating on road of 73.1 on road compared to 85.6 at home and has 5 interceptions in just 2 road games.

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Week 10 Results: 5-2

Week 10 had one of the largest cards of the year, it included 2 late Sunday morning plays that split but it really was a week a card I liked a lot as opposed to week 9 where I had only 4 plays and even one of them felt forced. Of the wins none of them really felt lucky, Washington had a big lead early gave it back but pulled out it out late, Eagles seemed to be in control most of game but could never really run away. A very good week and the overall record is looking great through 10 weeks. Just not as great as these guys.

tribe-dance

Week 10 Game Results: 5 wins 2 losses

week-10-results

What Went Right

  • #1 DVOA Overall & Defense: The Eagles lived up to their Football Outsiders ranking as they played a very dominant game, the margin should have been greater as Eagles out-gained Falcons by 130 yards and ran almost 30 more plays.
  • Dominant Defenses: I loved the under in the Chiefs- Panthers game, it was probably my favorite bet of week and in a game that had a defensive TD, the ridiculous play by Eric Berry and then another score set up by the incredible play by Marcus Peters. So basically the best offensive players for the Chiefs were in their secondary.
  • Titans Offense is Lit: Who in the world could have expected this? Mariotta has been the best QB in last 4 weeks and in this one they put up 35 points in first half. I thought this would be statement game for Titans and Packers were kind of reeling but nobody could have expected this.
  • 3 Quarters were enough: For 3 of the quarters, the Vikings-Washington game went exactly as I had hoped it would but Vikings made this one interesting in the 2nd quarter scoring 20 points which for them is about 2 weeks worth of points.Washington had 3 sacks and 18 total pressures (QB hits, TFL,Sacks) and were able to keep the Vikings out of end-zone at end of game to preserve this win.
  • Russel Wilson the Best: I am not a Seahawks fan, but am as big a believer in Russel Wilson and the Seahawks as Superbowl contenders as their is. The undisputed DVOA champs of the last 3 years will probably end up at the top again and in this game proved they are every bit the SB favourite that New England is. Russell Wilson was brilliant in this game and as we mentioned the Seahawks offensive line would be able to hold up against the Patriots 32nd ranked D line and they did. NE had 3 sacks but only 11 total pressures and Seattle put up 420 yards of offense and managed red zone trips on 7 of their 10 drives.

What Went Wrong

  • Betting on Bortles- At this point I don;t think I can bet on any game that I need Bortles to win. This was a great spot for the Jags but Bortles missed 2 wide open throws that should have been TDs, and added 2 fumbles and an interception. Until we see something change I just can’t back the Jags getting any less than 3 pts.
  • Oh those Cowboys– Dallas has won 8 straight games ATS, I have been against them the last 2 and its just amazing how we have not seen any let downs, or any performances where they just get outmatched. This game became kind of a mess because of all of the 2 pt conversions the Steelers missed, the Steelers went 4-5 in RZ while Cowboys were just 1-3. Steelers went 0-4 for 2 Pt conversions and gave up 2 TDs to Elliot in last 2 minutes. Crazy game that I thought we had through the first 3 quarters.

 

2016 Week 10 Picks

This week was a really tough week, I can’t remember feeling as disappointed, disillusioned and disheartened as I did after Tuesday night. Yesterday I got the new Tribe album and it was the first time I felt some relief, some joy, some escape. It’s beautiful and perfect. RIP Phife. Thank you Tip, Ali and Jarobi we needed this.

Week 9: 2-2

2016: 28-20-2

2015: 63-37-3

Game 1: KC @ Car Under 44.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

Both these teams played games last week that went way under, we were on the Panthers-Rams under and I bet against the Chiefs last week. The Chiefs will get Alex Smith and Spencer Ware back in this game but after a week off I expect Andy Reid to be very conservative in this game especially with Jeremy Maclan out this game. Even though Maclan hasn’t been as big a part of the offense this year as everyone expected there is no doubt that he is still a focal point of defenses so with him out the Panthers should be able to squeeze the Chiefs offense.

The Panthers defense struggled mightily early in the year but the last 2 weeks vs Arizona and the Rams it looked a lot closer to last year’s group. By DVOA their  defensive line is now a top 10 group vs the pass and run and the Chiefs line hasn’t been particularly good, so this is a good matchup for Panthers defense.

On the flip side, the Panthers offense has issues on the offensive line. Not only will they be without Michael Oher again but they will be without starting center Ryan Kalil who didn’t practice at all this week. The Chiefs have been a much better pass rush team the last month lead by Dee ford who has 7.5 sacks the last 4 weeks.

This feels like a game both teams offensive lines are going to have a hard time holding up, they both rank in the bottom 10 and face defenses that can create pressure. The Chiefs have thrived on turnovers but even in games like last week where they were +4, they still only scored 19. We have seen the Panthers offense struggle in games where Cam gets hit a lot which has been most weeks. Take out the games vs Saints and Falcons and this is an offense that has struggled to score so far especially against teams with pass rush.

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Week 9 Results: 2-2

Week 9 was my smallest card of the season, just 4 games and one of them was a teaser. There just wasn’t a lot that I liked or felt great about and the card and the results show that. considering how bad the losses were and that the Jags were -4 in turnovers 2-2 was the best result I could have got out of that card.

jericho-week-9

Week 9 results: 2-2

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2016 Week 9 Picks

This was not a week where I saw a lot of line value based on analytics or numbers and with 6 teams on byes it was probably going to be smaller card anyways. 2 of the sides are schedule/letdown spots and we have another teaser this week were we hope the home teams can just get the win. Coming off our first big winning weeks since week 1 has lifted the overall record to just under 60% which is great to see. The recipe the last few seasons has been to try to avoid the really public plays which I think limits the big losing weeks. Then from there we grind out the weeks and hopefully have a few weeks like last week and week 1 where the ugly games all hit and boost the overall record.

Week 8: 4-1

2016: 26-18-2

2015: 63-37-3

Game 1: Dal @ Cle +7.5

Bet% Dal 76% Cle 24%

In a game between the #2 DVOA team and the 32nd DVOA team we are going to have an impossible time finding any numbers that support taking the Browns and the points here. They do not exist. This is pick based solely on the schedule and the very likely scenario that the Cowboys will have a let down here.

Last week the Cowboys came off of their bye and played a prime time game vs divisional rival Philadelphia, they struggled for most of the game, trailing 20-13 through 3 quarters in what was Dak Prescott’s least efficient start since the opener before coming back and scoring on their last drive then in OT to steal a huge victory.

Now this week they play the worst team in the league, the winless Browns and beyond that Jerry Jones has basically come out and said that Prescott will be the starter regardless of Romo’s health so that urgency from the QB is also gone. You know the Cowboys have spent the week celebrating not just the win but the idea that even without a complete game they can come back and win. How seriously did they work this week to get ready for the winless Browns? Also they play the Steelers next week so you have to think there is going to be some looking ahead for both the players and coaches to that marquee matchup. (more…)

Week 8 Results: 4-1

Finally!! Back in to the winning circle in a winning way getting 4 out of 5 games this week., the last few weeks I felt like we were just a break or two from a big week but you can go a whole season that way so it was nice to get one here. So far this season we have avoided any really big loss weekends and now with 2 big weeks and basically .500 very the rest of the year the overall record is looking pretty good as we move to just under 60%.

shinsuke-streamers

Week 8 Results:  4 Wins 1 Loss

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