Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.
Week 9: 4-0
Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1
On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score. (more…)
This week was a really tough week, I can’t remember feeling as disappointed, disillusioned and disheartened as I did after Tuesday night. Yesterday I got the new Tribe album and it was the first time I felt some relief, some joy, some escape. It’s beautiful and perfect. RIP Phife. Thank you Tip, Ali and Jarobi we needed this.
Week 9: 2-2
Game 1: KC @ Car Under 44.5
Bet% Over 60% Under 40%
Both these teams played games last week that went way under, we were on the Panthers-Rams under and I bet against the Chiefs last week. The Chiefs will get Alex Smith and Spencer Ware back in this game but after a week off I expect Andy Reid to be very conservative in this game especially with Jeremy Maclan out this game. Even though Maclan hasn’t been as big a part of the offense this year as everyone expected there is no doubt that he is still a focal point of defenses so with him out the Panthers should be able to squeeze the Chiefs offense.
The Panthers defense struggled mightily early in the year but the last 2 weeks vs Arizona and the Rams it looked a lot closer to last year’s group. By DVOA their defensive line is now a top 10 group vs the pass and run and the Chiefs line hasn’t been particularly good, so this is a good matchup for Panthers defense.
On the flip side, the Panthers offense has issues on the offensive line. Not only will they be without Michael Oher again but they will be without starting center Ryan Kalil who didn’t practice at all this week. The Chiefs have been a much better pass rush team the last month lead by Dee ford who has 7.5 sacks the last 4 weeks.
This feels like a game both teams offensive lines are going to have a hard time holding up, they both rank in the bottom 10 and face defenses that can create pressure. The Chiefs have thrived on turnovers but even in games like last week where they were +4, they still only scored 19. We have seen the Panthers offense struggle in games where Cam gets hit a lot which has been most weeks. Take out the games vs Saints and Falcons and this is an offense that has struggled to score so far especially against teams with pass rush.
A remarkable week 10 where we saw underdogs cover 12 of the 14 games and even more incredible was that 11 of those underdogs won the game straight up. Only the Giants covered the number but didn’t win straight up vs the Patriots and there were about 4 things that had to all happen for NE to come back and get the win. With this week going the way it did, it really should have been a bigger week for me, there were about 3 or 4 games that I liked and ended up leaving off because I had been trying to make fewer plays weekly but not sure I am good enough at this point to isolate top plays from the rest. All that being said, another winning weekend and the overall record continues to hover above 60%