Week 10 Picks

Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.

mr perfect vintage GIF

 

Week 9: 4-0

2018: 27-14

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1

On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score.

I think the Eagles have a bunch of advantages in this game vs the Cowboys on offense, they will get a boost from the Golden Tate pickup and the Cowboys are one of the worst teams vs TE which is the strength of the Eagles pass game. Dallas is 26th vs he pass and 4th vs the run, Eagles won’t run much anyways so this plays to their strength. The concern I have with the Eagles is injuries, Jalen Mills and Sidney Rice will be out and the nickel corner will likely be someone who wasn’t on the roster last week.  Eagles also have injuries on the O line with both tackles injured but playing, so the full TD seems too much to me but I love them in a teaser.

Game 2: Was @ TB -3 

Bet% Was 47% TB 53%

Injuries are always hard to quantify when it comes to the spread but for me cluster injuries are among the most important. Washington will be without at least 3 starters on the offensive line and a 4th Morgan Moses is questionable and has missed practice this week. Washington is 25th in DVOA on defense TB is dead last at 32 but on offense TB is 15 and Was who is extremely banged up is 20th. I like the Fighting Fitzpatricks to put up enough points to win this game by a TD or more, Washington is going to have a hard time creating space for Peterson and if they get behind I don;t know how the protection holds up.

Game 3: NE @ Ten +7

Bet%: NE 80% Ten 20%

NE is the most heavily bet team this week and yet there are a number of books that have moved off of the TD and are down to 6.5 which means there is big money on the Titans side. The Titans have played good teams tough especially at home beating the Jags and Eagles in Tennessee and played the Chargers very tough in London losing 20-19.

Game 4: Sea +10 (-120) @ LAR

Bet% Sea 53% LAR 47%

This is a division game so i can’t say that Rams will overlook it but last week the Rams played against the Saints in a potential game of the year and next week they play the Chiefs in another potential game of the year so this is a tough spot to cover 10 points.

Seattle is back on defense, they do not have the Legion of Boom anymore but Pete Carrol has them 5th in defensive DVOA 5th vs the pass and 15th vs the run. They also should be able to run the ball vs the Rams 24th ranked run defense and keep the ball away from Goff and the offense.

Game 5 : NYG +3 @ SF

Bet%: NYG 62% SF 38%

This was the first bet I made this week, the line just seemed like way too big of an endorsement of Nick Mullins based on 1 game vs a Raiders team that quit pretty early in that game last week. Nobody knew anything about Mullins before that game especially the Raiders and I do believe that helped him and Shanahan. Now the Giants have film on Mullins and I believe that we will see a come back to earth game from him.

Both these teams are bad but the Giants have playmakers and the 49ers don’t. SF is 18th in DVOA but were 24th before there game vs Oakland. While 49ers have 1 more win than the Giants, the schedule tey have played has been much easier. Here are the 49ers last 5 opponents, Oak, Ari x 2, LAR and GB, They won one of those 5. The Giants last 5 is Was, Phi, Atl, Car and NO.

I also like that his game is on MNF because 2 weeks ago the Giants lost a MNF game that made a lot of news because of the game management of the head coach. I think the Giants come out and win this game straight up by a TD+.

 

Last Week’s Results

wk 9

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