Month: November 2014

Week 13- Sunday

I am out of town so not a chance for write ups but I will give my full rationale on the review in a couple of days.

Picks

Game 4: NE @ GB-3

Bet% NE 62% GB 38%

* GB at home in big games, also 62%of bets on NE, seems too easy to take points here.

Game 5: Cle @ Buf -3

Bet% Cle 46 Buf 54

*Big weekend in Buffalo after storm last weekend, also Buf Defensive line one of best in league, Hoyer has struggled last few weeks, think they pressure him to mistakes

Game 6: Wash +8 @ Indy

Bet% Was 24% Indy 76%

*Reverse line move, opened 9.5 dropping to 7.5 at some books even though over 75% of bets on Indy. Was definetly  had issues with RG3 both physical as he played so poorly  but also chemistry, think team will play well with Mccoy

 

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Week 13 – Thanksgiving Day

LW 4-1

Season 47-26

Game 1 Chi @ Det Under 48

Bet% Over 57% 43%

Detroit is an under machine right now, the #1 DVOA offense even after giving up 34 to the Patriots last week has had 8 or 9 of the 11 games go under (depending on line) because while their defense is premier giving up 17.3 point per game, the offense has run dry. Over the last 7 weeks the Lions have averaged 13.6 points per game and in those same 7 games only 1 game has gone over, a 24-23 win vs the Saints where the total was set at 45.5. The Lions are just not a very efficient offense they are 30th in yards per point and 24th in RZ TD at 50%

As for Chicago, their offense has also slowed down, they are the 20th in the league scoring 21.5 ppg and in the last 3 games they are down to 18.7. The Bears are very good in the red zone where they score TD’s 66% of time (5th) but they only get on average 3 trips per game(17th) and Det holds teams to TDs on 51% of trips (12th). On defense Chicago has the 23rd ranked DVOA defense and had 2 historically bad games vs the Patriots and Packers where they gave up 50 to each of those teams which is why I think this total is as high as it is. Outside of those 2 HOF QB’s the most points that the Bears have given up was 27 to Mia and Atl, 2 teams in the top 10 in offensive DVOA which Det is not.

So we have 2 offenses that are struggling, 1 elite defense and 1 defense that has been exploited by the best offenses but been about league average vs the rest of the field. After getting handled last week, I think the Lions defense has a big game and keeps the Bears below 20 which should get us the under with a number this high.

Game 2: Phi +3 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 42 Dal 58

This is the biggest game of the year in the NFC East as the 2 division leaders play their first game of 2 in the next 3 weeks.  The Eagles are ranked 8th in DVOA while Dallas is 10, what’s interesting about the Chip Kelly led Eagles is that it is their offense that holds their ranking back as their defense is 8th, Special teams are 1st but the offense is 18th. On offense the Eagles have struggled in 2 places, the first s the red zone where they are scoring TD’s only 46% of the trips and the other is turnovers where the Eagles are last with 27 giveaways.

A lot of he Eagles issues on offense  have been due to issues on the offensive line, the Eagles have had 4 key linemen miss at least 4 games this year but this will be the 3rd straight week that the Eagles have their 4 best linemen playing.  We can see some improvement in the last 3 weeks where their RZ TD% has been 7pts higher than their season average at 53.3% as well as Shady Mccoy who after struggling most of the year has averaged 4.9 yard per attempt the last 2 weeks. I expect that success to continue vs the Cowboys who give up 4.3 per rush attempt.

The Dallas offense has been dominant all year, they lead the league in rushing yards, 2nd in yards per attempt at 4.9 which allows them to have big plays in the pass game where they average 7.8 yards per pass att (2nd). That run game has been slowed a bit the last few weeks, in the last 3 they are averaging 4.5 yards per att which is still very good but not quite as elite as the 4.9 over the season. The Eagles defense lines up well vs Dallas as what they do best his play the run, they are giving up 3.9 yards per att( 9th) and they have actually been even better than that the last 3 weeks giving up just 3.5 yards attempt. If the Eagles can slow the Dallas run game they should be able to get pressure on Romo, Eagles are 2nd in the league in sack% and again over the last 3 games have been even better getting sacks on 11.4% of plays.

The big hole on Dallas is their defense ranked 25th in DVOA, they are giving up 7,4 yards per pass att and getting sacks on only 4.6% of plays, so if the Eagles offensive line plays to their abilities Sanchez should have plenty of time and opportunities to make plays, Eagles are averaging 7 yards per pass but again that’s been better the last 3 weeks where they are averaging 7.6. The 2 big wildcards are turnovers where the Eagles are last and special teams where the Eagles are first, if they can keep the turnovers down I think Eagles win straight up.

Game 3: Sea @ SF under 40.5

Two top 10 DVOA defenses playing against offense that have struggled to be consistant in scoring points in this game. 5of the 6 meetings between these two teams have gone under and for the 49ers, 4 of their last 5 have gone under, the only exception was an OT game against the Saints. The 49ers defense has been especially good in the last 3 weeks when Chris Borland was inserted into MLB and they also had top pass rusher Aldon Smith return for the last 2 weeks.

These are two of the stingiest teams in the league, Seattle gives up 19.8 PPG while SF gives up 20.5 but even better than that in the last 3 games these teams have given up 14.7 and 15.7 respectively. Both of these offenses are based on the run and both defenses handle the run very well, SF gives up 4.0 yards per rush while Seattle is even better giving up only  3.5. The 49ers have been great against the pass leading the league in opponent passer rating at 74.1 but again over the last 3 weeks that has been even better as the opp passer rating is an amazing 58.6 in that period.

A key to get unders is redzone play and these are also 2 of the worst teams in the redzone, Sea is 21st at 50% while SF is last at 40% meanwhile these are 2 o the best defenses at keeping teams out of the redzone as they rank 3rd and 5th allowing only 2.5 and 2.7 redzone trips per game. This is one of the lowest unders we have seen in week’s which is interesting but I’m not sure it will be low enough.

Week 12 Review

Week 12: 4-1

Season ATS: 47-26

Well he winning weeks continue and the last 3 weeks have been at a particularly torrid pace 7-0,5-2 and 4-1 for 16-3 or a ridiculous 84.2%. I know it can’t stay this hot but it has been a very fun ride, the finish line is getting closer and I think I have a good sense of a lot of teams right now so hopefully have some more winning weeks left. Week 12 had the fewest plays I have had and there were definitely plays I liked that won but I think it was a good a week for me to limit the total number of plays. Right now I’m feelin like the ODB of this shit

ODB 13

Game 1 Bal +3.5 @ NO

Bet% Bal 42 NO 58

Score: Bal 34 NO 24

Result: Win

This was the first game that jumped out to me when the lines came out and the first game I bet as I knew it wouldn’t stay above a FG which it didn’t. We know the better team does’t always win so it’s not enough to just pick the better team but there are games where if ou believe the line is saying the wrong team is the better team that you have to jump on. By opening the line at NO+4 that means that on a neutral the Saints would be a fav of .5 or 1 which I disagreed with, to me Bal was the better team and on a neutral I would make the Ravens at least a 2.5 fav. In the game both teams moved the ball extremely well, Bal avgd 7.9 yards/play while Saints got 7.5/play. The difference in the game ended up being a interception for TD the Ravens got early in the 2nd half, they led the game from that point out and were able to hold off the Saints

Game 2: Mia +7 @ Den

Bet% Mia 27% Den 73%

Score: Mia 36 Den 39

Result: Win

Kind of a strange game when you consider that we had 2 of the 3 best defensive teams in the league and we end up with a total of 75. Miami and their #3 ranked D actually looked really good through 3Q’s holding Broncos to just 17 and leading the game 28-17. Manning and crew managed to put up 22 in the 4th and steal the game but I think Miami once again proved that despite their record and these tough losses against really good teams they are in fact a very good team on both sides of the ball. Would of loved the straight up win as a dog but happy to get the cover as they did go down 11 in the 4th after 3 straight Den TD’s.

Game 3: Det +7.5 @ NE

Bet% Det 24% NE 76%

Score: Det 9 NE 34

Result: Loss

Note: This was the one loss of the week and after the 1st quarter it wasn’t close. While the Pats offense won the battle vs the #1 defense it was the Detroit offense which for the 2nd straight game let the Lions down. Detroit averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt on 46 passes, Stafford had a QB rating of 49.5 and failed to pass for a TD. The Pats did exactly what they have done during this winning streak which is get ahead early and control the game though it is interesting that even with a big lead they only ran the ball 20 times compared to 53 pass attempts. Going forward hard to take Lions in a game untill we see the offense put together a good game, look to under or pass. NE did not have any issues looking ahead to GB and took the Det challenge on defense very seriously. Clearly one of the best 2 or 3teams in the league.

Game 4: Cle +3 @ Atl

Bet% Cle 45% Atl55%

Score: Cle 26 Atl 24

Result: Win

This game was a lot closer than it should of been for the Browns. Cle out gained the Falcons in every phase, they avarged 6.7 yards per play to Atl’s 4.6, 7.5 yards per pass attempt to Atl’s 4.6 and 5.6 yards per rush to Atl’s 27. What kept this game in the balance was that Cleveland went 1-6 in the redzone while Atl was 2-2 and Cleveland also lost the turnover battle 2-3 including a crucial interception late in the 4th in the Atlanta endzone that allowed Falcons to stay in the game, come back and take the lead. Atlanta is who they are, a very mediocre team in a terrible division and the great home records of the past in the Matt Ryan era no longer apply because they simply are not a very good team.

Game 5: Dal @ NYG+4.5

Bet% Dal 74% NYG 26%

Score: Dal 31 NYG 28

I thought this was a game where Dallas was in a look ahead spot and the Giants were playing a game that was basically going to get heir last shot to have a big moment. I think that is how this game played out, Dallas was very lackluster early and the Giants behind a great performance by Odel Beckham jr led the game 21-10 at halftime. Eli Manning coming off his worst game of the season last week with 5 interceptions came back this week with 3TD’s 1Int and a passer rating of 112.3. Unfortunately for Eli, Romo ended up having a little better game throwing for 4TDs and a passer rating of 143.4 putting together a game winning drive where they went 80 yards in 1min 59secs with 1:01 left in the game

Week 12 Picks

Week 11: 5-2

Season ATS: 43-25

After having 2 really good weeks in a row (12-2) I’m a little nervous this week because on one hand I know there is going to be some regression as it doesn’t seem possible to keep being on the right side this often and while I really like this week’s card, I am fading some of the best and most prolific teams in the league. One of the themes in this week is fading teams that have big games next week, hopefully we catch them looking ahead.

Game 1 Bal +3.5 @ NO

Bet% Bal 42 NO 58

This was the first game I bet after open, it opened at Bal +4 which I missed but did get in with the 3.5. So the Saints will be playing their 3rd straight game at home and I get the idea that it seems impossible that they could lose all 3 and that’s why everyone would be on the Saints but would you have thought they would lose both of the first 2? I don’t think so which is why I don’t think that alone can be reason to take Saints here or stay away from Ravens.

Baltimore’s season is pretty amazing, at 6-4 they are last in their division but have a +80 point differential, are the 3 DVOA team overall, #7 on defense and # 12 on overall, so by all these measures Baltimore come out looking like one of the best teams in the NFL. The Saints on the other hand at 4-6 have a point differential of 8 and are the 16th overall DVOA team, 30th on defense and 5th on offense. So it looks like we have the better team getting 3.5 on the road in this game, what about the spot?

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Week 11 Review

Week 11: 5-2

Season ATS: 43-25

For the 2nd week in a row the good times continued to roll and now the season record sits at just over 63% which is a pretty amazing run. Getin it while the gettin is good, I know it can’t keep up at this pace but I will enjoy it for now.

anchor dance

Game 1 Buf @ Mia under 42

Bet% Over 57 Under 43%

Score Buf 9 Mia 22

Result: Win

This game really went basically to form and in the  first half better than I could of hoped for. Both defenses dominated early, at half the score was 6-3 Buf, in the 2nd we saw Mia continued to dominate only giving up another FG while forcing a safety. Miami held Buf to 2.8 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per pass attempt. On the other side while Mia did get a couple of TD’s through the air, one set up by a fumble, the Bills D got 5 sacks, 7TFL and 6 QB hits they also held Mia 20 2-6 in the redzone.

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Week 11 Picks

Well with the win on Thursday night night we are riding the largest win streak of the year with 8 straight wins, one of the reasons has been trusting the numbers on totals, specifically on unders and even more specifically riding the Detroit defense.

LW: 7-0

Season ATS 39-23 (includes TNF)

Game 2: Det +1 @ Arz

Bet% Det 52 Arz 48

It’s interesting that Det at 7-2 is on the road at a team that is 8-1 and only a 1 point dog in this game, this may be due to the Carson Palmer injury but I think the line is actually a good line because  Detroit is a better team overall. By DVOA Det ranks 9th overall and #1 on Defense, while Arizona ranks 15th overall and 5th on defense. I think the current Lions team is actually better than that ranking because on offense the Lions rank 22nd but remember that Calvin Johnson missed 4 games and was hobbled for a couple of other ones and this offense is much more efficient when Johnson is healthy.

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Week 11- TNF Buf @ Mia under 42

Week 11

Season ATS 38-23

Game 1 Buf @ Mia under 42

Bet% Over 57 Under 43%

Last week I went 3-0 with unders and these 2 teams were involved in 2 of those games, honestly I expect this game to be very similar to the ones they played in last week.  These are 2 of the best defensive teams in the league, Miami is #3 in defensive DVOA while Buf is #4, they rank 3rd & 4th in opponents passer rating at 78 and 79 but what is even more remarkable is how good they have been in the last 3 weeks by that metric. In the last 3 weeks Miami opponents have a passer rating of a paltry 62.4, somehow Buffalo has been even better as their opponents have a passer rating of 44.7 in the last 3 weeks.

Both defenses have dominant pass rushes, Buffalo ranks 2nd in sack% with sacks on 9.42% of pass plays while Miami is 6th at 7.8%, I think the pass rush will be able to be even stronger in this game for Buffalo as Miami will be without their starting LT Brandon Alberts who was hurt last week and will be out for the year.

Not only do we have 2 top defenses in this game we also have key injuries on offense, Miami as stated above will miss Brandon Albert and they will also most likely be without starting RB Lamar Miller. For Buffalo, Sammy Watkins is not 100% and Fred Jackson is expected to be out leaving the rushing duties to Dixon and Bryce Brown who although  very talented is prone to fumbling as shown last week.

The line has dropped the last few days but i exepet this score to be in the same neighbourhood as both of these teams’s games last week and think it ends up somewhere in the mid 30’s.

Week 10 Review –

Week 10 : 7-0

Season ATS : 38-23

Weeks like this don’t happen very often but in Week 10 we get the magical and all so allusive Perfect week going 7-0. Curt Henning would be proud.

 

Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5

Bet%Car 36 Phi 64

Score: Car 21 Phi 45

Result: Win

I loved this game, thought the Panthers were a perfect matchup for the Eagles and as long as Sanchez didn’t turn it over Eagles would be able to put up points.  While I thought it would happen on the ground, Panthers stacked the box and forced Sanchez to beat them and he did throwing for 8.4 yards/pass, over 300 yards and TD.

On the other side the game went as I expected as the Eagles dominated the Panthers terrible Offensive line, they had 29 sacks/QB hits/TFL’s which led to 5 Panther turnovers including a pick 6.

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Week 10 Picks

Looking to rebound after the worst week of the season, I have 3 unders on the card this week, so here hoping the games ‘Get Low’……..Skeet Skeet.

Season ATS 31-23

Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5

Bet%Car 36 Phi 64

For the 2nd week in a row I will be taking the square play in an Eagles game, this time on MNF. I should of bet this game at the open of -6 as there was only one way it was going, not sure if it will get to 7 by Monday but it wouldn’t surprise me.

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Week 9 Review

Week 9 2-5

Season ATS 31-23

Mama said there would be days like this

About to start crying

Week 9 was one of those weeks where in the games where I thought I was getting value against a better team, the better team came out and still covered the inflated number ie (Saints, Chiefs, Colts) and in the game where I thought I had the better team, they got bleached (Ravens).

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