Week 9 2-5

Season ATS 31-23

Mama said there would be days like this

Week 9 was one of those weeks where in the games where I thought I was getting value against a better team, the better team came out and still covered the inflated number ie (Saints, Chiefs, Colts) and in the game where I thought I had the better team, they got bleached (Ravens).

Game 1: NO @ Car +3

Bet% NO 62 Car 38

Score NO 28 Car 10

Result: Loss

Saints laying 3 on the road just didn’t make sense, they have been terrible on the road the last 2 years and have always struggled in Car. In this game Cam Newton really struggled, the Saints controlled the game on the ground with 37 carries and dominated by running 20 more plays. The Saints have now played 3 strng games in a row and it looks like they have made 2 key changes, on offense they are committed to running the ball and on defense they are playing safer, blitzing far less frequently and playing a lot more coverage.  Panthers will be tough to take until we see Ca get going again, the defense is getting no pass rush and struggling vs the run.

Game 2: Phi -2 @ Hou

Bet % Phi 72 Hou 38%

Score Phi 31 Hou 10

Result: Win

Even though the Eagles lost their starting QB in this game, turned the ball over 4 times to 1 by Houston and gave up a INT for TD to the Texans the Eagles still covered this game by more than a TD. Eagles domiated this game running 20 more plays and gaining almost 200 more yards. The Texans were once again held back by Ryan Fitzpatrick who was benched after this game, going forward with replacement level QB play I think Texas will be an interesting team.

Game 3: NYJ+10 @ KC

Bet% 39% KC 61%

Score: NYJ 10 KC 24

Result: Loss

When you take a double digit dg you know you do not have a good team generally but what you hope for is that they can stay in the game and then make a play or 2 that gets the cover. The Jets were in this game for a while the difference really came down to a goal to go situation in the 4th Q where the Jets went for it on 4th down and ended up getting a offensive pass interference call and getting nothing on the drive.  if they score there we probably get the cover but it went the other way. NFL Plinko. Fuck.

Game 4: Jax +10.5 @ Cin

Bet% Jax 33 Cin 67%

Score: Jax 23 Cin 33

Result: Win

I think this is a game that again shows the importance of getting the right number, this game opened at 13, was at 11, 10.5 most of the week and then dropped to 10 and even 9.5 on Sunday at some books. Not a lot to this game, double digit dog managed to stick around, Bengals had a couple of big turnovers that let jags stay in the game, clearly not the best effort for Bengals who were probably looking ahead to their TNF game vs the Browns.

Game 5: Den@NE under 52.5

Bet% Under 37 Over 67%

Score: Den 21 NE 43

Result: Loss

Ths is a game to learn from. In the morning there was a ton of snow in NE and the total began dropping, I saw a lot of smart people adding the under and seemed like the right move. I took U52.5 and saw it get all the way down to 51. The problem is that the game was not a morning game and as the morning games went on I noticed that the line started rising again.  By game time all the snow had stopped and the field had cleared, there was some wind and it was a little cold but really nothing that would effect the total.  Since my bet was based on the sow, once that was not an issue and the line started rising, I should of got off since I didn’t have a bet on the under all week until I saw snow.

Game 6: Bal +2 @ Pit

Bet % Bal 48 Pit 52

Score: Bal 23 Pit 43

Result: Loss

In Week 8 Ben Rothlisberger had the greatest game of his career throwing for 6 TD’s, I thought playing their 3rd straight game and coming off of that performance we would see some let down and that the better ravens team would be able to take advantage. Well Big Ben followed up the best game of his career with the 2nd best game of his career throwing for TDs again. the Ravens had some injuries in their secondary which hurt them more than I thought but this was one of those games where one team starts going and there isn’t much you can do to stop them.

Game 7 Ind @ NYG+3

Bet% Ind 75 NYG 25

Score: Ind 40  NYG 24

Result: Loss

Thought we were getting some value on the home dog coming off of a bye week and basically needing this win to stay in the hunt in their division with the Eagles and Giants. With 75% bets on the Colts it’s clear that the books needed the Giants as well and in the primetime games I think if you are on the side of the books you are probably going to win more than you lose. This was not one of those weeks.