Last week was a good week but should have been so much better, really the theme of the season so far. 2 of the losses came in the same game and I should have stayed off that Monday Nighter but was able to make up for those with some in game bets and the Washington ML helped as well.

LW: 4-3

2019: 30-28-1

Game 1: Buf @ Dal Over 46.5

Bet% Over 42% Under 58%

This line opened at 45 and has been bet up and I totally agree with the move. I think we are getting some value based on the games last week which both were way under the total. I was on the over in the Buf-Den game last week and it never came close because of 2 reasons; 1) Weather- The conditions in Buffalo were much windier than had been expected and as a result Denver really struggled passing the ball 2) Brandon Allen was terrible, the wind definitely impacted Brandon Allen much more than Josh Allen, as Brandon Allen finished with a QBR of 6, he simply didn’t have the arm strength to play in those conditions. We also had very difficult conditions in New England last week which the Cowboys really struggled with and as a result I think this line opened about 3 points lower than it should have.

Dallas should be able to run on the Bills, Buffalo is 26^th vs the run and Dallas should be able to exploit that with Elliott and also then use play action. Buffalo should also have success against the Cowboys 19^th ranked defense especially with the changes they have made the last 2 weeks. Warren Sharp is the only person I have seen point this out but since moving their OC upstairs, the Bills are using 11 personnel over 90% of time up almost 30% and have also increased their pace of play dramatically. Both teams get matchups they can exploit with perfect conditions in Dallas, I think this game gets into the 50’s.

Game 2: GB @ NYG +6.5

Bet%: GB 88% 12%

This game will probably be one of the biggest needs for the books but they new that when they opened it under a TD. This game opened at GB -6.5 and has never come close to 7 and in fact has dropped to 6 at few points. Not only are over 80% of bets on GB, by keeping it under a TD this will be one of the most havily teased games and yet the books have not moved it to protect themselves so why are they so comfortable needing the Giants? Lets start with the Packers, they have lost their last 2 road games and their defense continues to drop in overall rankings, they are 24^th in DVOA, they are giving up 6.1 yards per play which is 29^th and their rush defense is 28^th. It is very difficult to cover a number this large on the road with a bottom 7 or 8 defense and that is how GB is playing over the last half of the season. The Giants have not been able to get Barkley going the last few weeks but this should be a big week for the Giants RB. The thing you like about betting the Giants as underdogs is they have made Daniel Jones development their top priority so even in games where they are down big, they let want Jones out there playing and trying to get them back in the game which is why they have had so many late backdoor covers.  The Packers are being treated as one of the best teams in the conference with this line and they are probably much closer to a middle of the pack team because of their defense.

Game 3: Phi -10 @ Mia

Bet% Phi 61% 39%

The Eagles are coming off of their 2 worst offensive performances and the bloom has come off of Carson Wentz both nationally and locally as a result. In last week’s game vs the Seahawks the Eagles were missing their WR1, WR2, WR3, their All Pro RT and RG and also their RB1. Somehow they were still in that game late because the defense was able to keep Seattle out of the endzone for the most part. The impact of missing that many starters can’t be overstated. The Dan Orlovsky tweet above really does a great job of showing how impactful the losses of Jeffrey and Agholor were. Now that Wentz has 2 starters at WR back, this game vs Miami will be only the 3^rd game of the season where the Eagles will have the majority of their receivers and secondary healthy, the other 2 were wins in Buffalo and vs Chicago. With the Cowboys loss on Thursday the Eagles are in the drivers seat for the division and I expect the offense to use this game as a get right spot, Alshon Jeffrey, Agholor, Lane Johnson, Brandon Brooks will all be back.  The Eagles defense has been one of the best units in the league the last 4 weeks and I expect them to continue vs Fitzpatrick especially because they don’t have to worry about the Miami run game.

Game 4: Ten +1.5 @ Ind

Bet% 44% Ind 56%

So this bet is based on a lesson learned last week with the Eagles Seattle game. Last week was a great spot for the Eagles but they had so many cluster injuries on the offense that players were forced into positions they had not been in all year and it showed in really subtle but critical ways. The Dan Orlovsky tweet really shows how precise routes are and being a little off or on a different page really shows up in critical spots. The Colts will be without their top 3 WRs, star WR TY Hilton, Devin Funches and most likely Paris Campbell, they will also be without TE Eric Ebron, starting RB Marlon Mack and #3 TE has a broken thumb. That is a lot o=to overcome for Brisett and the Colts offense. The Titans have been playing really well since Tanehill took over at QB, they are 4-1 in the 5 games he has started though all 4 wins came at home, they have scored at least 20 in each of those 5 games. If the Titans score 20 in this game they will win straight up, I can’t see the Colts getting more than that.

Game 5: Cle -2.5 @ Pit

Bet% Cle 69% Pit 31%

The Steelers are another team with major pieces missing on offense this week as they will be without JuJu Smith Schuster, James Connor is doubtful, Pouncey is still suspended and Devlin Hodges who started as their #3 QB will be starting. The Steelers managed to win despite their offense for about a month with incredible plays from their defense which seemed to include a Minka Fitzpatrick TD every week. Scoring from defense and special teams is not something that you can count on and it feels like we are now seeing Pittsburgh come back to reality, in the last 3 weeks the Steelers have scored 17, 7 and 16. The Browns seem to  have found some confidence in the last couple of weeks, they have won 3 straight and scored 21 vs Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago and 41 last week. 3 weeks is also how long Kareem Hunt has been on the active roster and I do think there is correlation, Hunt gives them another big weapon and allows Mayfield to get the ball out quickly. There will be a lot of talk about Myles Garret and Mason Raymond and the debacle on Thursday night but neither player will be in his game and I just think that the Browns will know they can go in and overwhelm this version of the Steelers.

Game 6: Min +3 @ Sea

Bet% Min 31% Sea 69%

Week 13 has been a disaster so far but this is about the long haul and if you think there is value on the board you have to keep firing. I like the Vikings in this game and think they have a very good shot to win straight up. These teams are very even, #7 and 8 by DVOA but by point differential the Vikings are +84 while Seattle is +29. Seattle has been in very close games that they have needed to pull out late against lesser competition like ATL, CIN, CLE and TB. This just feels like a spot for the Vikings to get an upset.

Last week was another 2-2 week, the Colts under was the swing game we had a chance to have a winning week but the Jags late score ended that. This week’s card started with me not really liking anything on Monday and by Friday I liked half the card. GL

LW: 2-2

2019: 26-25-1

Game 1: Den @ Buf Over 37

Bet% Over 70% Under 30%

The first 2 bets this week are in the same game. We start off with the total, usually a total this low has 2 basically broken offenses and 1 or 2 great defenses, while there is a game on this week’s card that futs that description, this isn’t it. Lets start off wit the defences, neither of these defenses are playing as well as they did last year, Broncos are 9^th in DVOA, Bills are 14^th. When the Broncos are on offense I think they are going to have success running the ball, they have 2 quality backs in Freeman and Lindsay and are 10^th in rushing DVOA. Meanwhile the Bills are one of the worst run defenses in the league, they rank 27^th, the Browns rushed for 147 a few weeks ago and the Eagles got over 200. I see Denver having a similar day. Josh Allen should also have success in this game especially with Josh Brown, the Broncos have given up 7.2 yards per pass att in their last 3, last week they gave up 121 to Stefon Diggs in the 2^nd half of that game, I think both teams will get into the 20’s.

Game 2: Den +4 @ Buf

Bet% Den 47 % Buf 53%

No need to write things twice so as discussed above I think both teams will have success on offense and be able to score points, I expect a 23-20 game and I think Denver has a legitimate shot at winning the game. Denver will be able to control the game with their run game and put Allen into position to make big plays to Sutton. In the end I am not sure that these teams aren’t basically the same teams, FO has Denver ranked 8 spots higher by DVOA than Buffalo despite their records. Buffalo has killed the bad teams on their schedule, (Miami twice, Was, Giants, Jets and Bengals but haven’t been great against the good teams. Denver has been in most games and lost in the end even against good teams like Minny, GB and Indy.

Game 3: Pit @ Cin Under 38

Bet% Over 23% Under 77%

In the Buf – Den game I mentioned that totals under 40 are usually reserved for games with 2 broken offenses and at least 1 dominant defense and that’s exactly what we have and why I am going under. Lets start with the offenses we have two backup QB’s leading the 28^th and 29^th ranked offenses. For the Steelers not only has the offense been a disaster with Mason Raymond at QB but this week they will be without arguably their 3 best players on offense, Juju Smith-Schuster and James Connor due to injury and C Marquise Pouncey due to suspension. The Bengals meanwhile have not topped 17 points in 5 weeks, the last 2 weeks with Finley at QB they have combined for 23 points and this week they get one of the hottest defensive teams in the league. The Steelers have moved up to 3^rd in defensive DVOA, 5^th vs the pass and 8^th vs the run. These two teams met in week 4 and the Steelers won 27-3 in a game that Steelers pulled out a bunch of trick plays with Jaylen Samuels at QB, Bengals should be ready for those plays this time.

Game 4: Det @ Was +4

Bet% Det 80% Was 20%

Washington is obviously a bad team, they have 1 win, a point differential of -128 and are lead by a rookie QB that nobody believes in including the former head coach that drafted him so it makes sense that nobody wants to bet on them this week. That being said, this line is crazy, we have the 3 win Lions, with Jeff Driskel at QB , down to their 3^rd string QB favorites on the road of 3.5-4 points. Last week the Washington defense had a very tough game vs the Jets but they have played pretty well in the last month, they held the 49ers to 9 and the Vikings to 19 points. I think the Washington defense can lead them to a win here and Haskins is playing in his 3^rd game and probably the easiest defense he has faced so again I think there is a chance for him to play his best game here. Washington might not win another game this year but I think they have a real shot to win here.

Game 6 Sea @ Phi – * Edit NO PLAY

Bet% Sea 77% Phi 23%

With Alshon Jeffrey Inactive, I am no longer betting Eagles. Cluster injuries at WR make this a really difficult game to bet Eagles. – No Play

One of the things most important when betting NFL games is to not be overly impacted by the most recent results. Last week we saw the Seahawks on MNF and beat the previously undefeated 49ers in a thrilling game while the Eagles lost at home to the Patriots with their worst offensive performance of the year. Seattle is one of 7 teams with at least 8 wins, but when you dig a little deeper they have really not been an elite team, their point differential is +21 the next closest 8 win team is New Orleans at +39, in fact 3 teams with 6 wins, (Indy,Dal, LAR) all have larger point differentials than Seattle. Seattle is 7-1 in 1 score games, we know these close games usually tend to have teams somewhere around .500 so Seattle has been a little lucky by results. As for the Eagles the defense is the healthiest, they have been all year, and over the last 3 weeks they have given up 44 points, 4.2 yards per play and a passer rating of 75.9. The issue for the Eagles is on offense, the offense is devoid of game breakers and they are forced to put together long drives to score. The Eagles will get Alshon Jeffrey back and unlike last week where they played the leagues best pass defense, this week they get a pass defense that is much more middle of the road. The Eagles if they win this game set themselves up to win the division because they have 4 very winnable games after this leading into the showdown vs Dallas.

Game 5: GB @ SF -3

Bet% GB 58% SF 42%

*I have not bet this game yet and will wait until I know the actives. If George Kittle plays, I will be on the 49ers.

This is really all about line value, at -3 we are saying these 2 teams are equal and the 49ers are getting 3 points for home field. I think the 49ers should be at least 1.5 point favorites on a neutral field and maybe as much as 2.5 so this line should be between 4.5-5.5. The big advantage the 49ers have in this game is they are at their best when they can run the ball, their offense starts with running and play action and the Packers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. GB is 28^th in DVOA vs the run and giving up 4.8 yards per rush att, I fully expect Shanahan to be able to exploit the Packers defense.

Game 6: Oak @ NYJ +3.5

Bet% Oak 57% NYJ 43%

*LATE ADD

Adding the Jets to the card, line has been moving towards 3.5 all morning and now was able to lock in at -112. This is bad spot for the Raiders, traveling West to East for early start against a team you should beat with the Chiefs on deck for a huge divisional game.

Game 7: Bal @ LAR +4

Bet% Bal 70% 30%

Adding a MNF play with the Rams, this is really just beating the number. This game is probably the most juiced kine on the card because there is no team people want to bet on more than the Ravens. There are a few 4’s andbits top much to pass on. This is a must win for the Rams if they are going to make playoffs, getting 4 at home is just too much value to pass.

The grind continued last week, we got off to a good start with Bears and Browns but the Bengals were never in the Ravens game and the Rams got screwed on one of the worst fumble calls vs Pittsburgh and for the second straight week a defensive TD from the Steelers was the difference in a win and loss for us.

LW: 3-2

2019: 24-23-1

Game 1: Buf @ Mia +6.5

Bet% Buf 58% Mia 42%

I have seen some sharps’ on both sides of this game but I do not see how the Bills can be favored almost a TD on the road. Miami has not only won 2 straight games but in the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago, the first start after Fitzpatrick got the starting job again, the Dolphins led the game after 3 quarters 14-9. The Bills are 24^th in DVOA, the passing offense continues to be an issue at 28^th in DVOA in fact with Fitzpatrick we are getting the QB playing much better this year, Josh Allen is 29^th in QBR with Fitzmagic is 8^th. (more…)

Last week was one of those weeks where you think do everything right and the Football Plinko gods come down and snatch victory away in the most painful crazy ways. The Colts overcame losing their starting QB, won by boxscore but gave up a pick 6 and then missed the game winning FG because the laces were out on the ball. TB was in position to win all game, Seattle misses a GWG FG end of regulation which would have given the cover, get the ball in OT and score a TD. It was a cruel, cruel week.

LW: 1-3-1

2019: 21-21-1

Game 1: Buf @ Cle -2.5

Bet% Buf 60% Cle 40%

Our week 10 starts the same as week 9 with the Cleveland Brown in what is a lesser spot and worse line. Yay? This is probably the last time we can keep doing this but like last week this is a spot that the Browns have to win if they have any chance of salvaging their season. One of the things that jumped out to me when looking at this matchup was that while the Browns are 2-6 and the Bills are 6-2 in DVOA Cleveland is ranked one higher 24 to 25. The Bills are not an elite team and this line is making it too easy to bet against the Browns. The Bills have feasted on bad teams and lost to the good ones this year and by all indications the Browns have been a bad team but I do think they are the more talented team. Browns had every opportunity to win last week but went 1-5 in the redzone and gave up a couple of big plays to Denver. The one thing we know the Browns can do on offense is run they are 13^th in DVOA, the Bills defense is terrible vs the run, 30^th in DVOA, if the Browns can be better in the redzone I think they win this game by a TD. (more…)

Got back on the plus side last week with some close calls on the Giants, Dolphins plus we got Eagles winning straight up. I was dead wrong on the Panthers – 49ers game but the Texans-Raiders game was the right call and had every opportunity to get over yet fell just short. I like this week’s card so lets hope to get a +2 or 3 week.

LW: 3-2

2019: 21-19

Game 1: Cle +1.5 @ Den

Bet% Cle 39% Den 61%

(more…)