Last week was one of those weeks where you think do everything right and the Football Plinko gods come down and snatch victory away in the most painful crazy ways. The Colts overcame losing their starting QB, won by boxscore but gave up a pick 6 and then missed the game winning FG because the laces were out on the ball. TB was in position to win all game, Seattle misses a GWG FG end of regulation which would have given the cover, get the ball in OT and score a TD. It was a cruel, cruel week.
Game 1: Buf @ Cle -2.5
Bet% Buf 60% Cle 40%
Our week 10 starts the same as week 9 with the Cleveland Brown in what is a lesser spot and worse line. Yay? This is probably the last time we can keep doing this but like last week this is a spot that the Browns have to win if they have any chance of salvaging their season. One of the things that jumped out to me when looking at this matchup was that while the Browns are 2-6 and the Bills are 6-2 in DVOA Cleveland is ranked one higher 24 to 25. The Bills are not an elite team and this line is making it too easy to bet against the Browns. The Bills have feasted on bad teams and lost to the good ones this year and by all indications the Browns have been a bad team but I do think they are the more talented team. Browns had every opportunity to win last week but went 1-5 in the redzone and gave up a couple of big plays to Denver. The one thing we know the Browns can do on offense is run they are 13th in DVOA, the Bills defense is terrible vs the run, 30th in DVOA, if the Browns can be better in the redzone I think they win this game by a TD. (more…)