The last couple of weeks have resulted in mostly middling results, some of that is due to luck or lack there of but also I think there have been some mistakes made and allowing myself to be swayed by some tough results. It’s funny how easy it is to fall into old bad habits but that is the point of this blog, to catch myself when that happens.
Week 7: 3-3
Game 1: Ind @ Cin Over41.5
Bet% Over 83% Under 17%
This game opened with one of the lowest totals of the week despite the fact that the Colts give up just under 31 points per game and have had their totals go over in 5 of 7 games. I like the Bengals to have a big game on offense this week but the -11 on spread is too rich so playing the over feels like the best bet.
NFL betting is 50% skill and preparation and 100% luck. At least that’s what it feels like in so many games where the ATS result seems to come down to 1 or 2 plays that can go either way. Gill Alexander @beatingthebook compares NFL betting to plinko the old Price is Right game and I’m not sure there has ever been a better analogy for NFL betting, my card this week certainly had some plinko finishes that lead to blah 3-3 result.
If Week 6 taught us anything or reaffirmed anything it is that the NFL is a week to week league. Say that 5 times to yourself like a mantra, “The NFL is a Week to Week League” last week we saw 2 double digit underdogs, Miami and the Giants, win games straight up. The Jets and 49ers just missed making it 4 big dogs winning straight up. We saw undefeated KC lose their first game at home to the Steelers who were blown out at home the previous week by the Jags. Like I said the NFL is a week to week league.
It’s the 20th anniversary of The Firm. Crazy.
Week 6: 3-2
Game 1: Bal @ Min Under 39.5
Bet% Over 41% Under 59%
Betting unders on games where the total is under 40 seems very tough to pull the trigger on and for me I usually stay off those games but I went back and looked at totals that closed 40.5 and lower this season and unders went 9-6 in those 15 games.
I’m not sure there is an offense that looks more anaemic than the Ravens do, they are 26th in DVOA on offense, 31st in passer rating, 31st in yards per pass attempt and 31st in explosive plays. Last week the Ravens scored 24 but 14 of them came from special teams TDs. Week 5 was their best offensive game vs the Raiders who are 28th in defense and even in that game they needed a defensive TD. (more…)
Week 6 was a huge week for underdogs with 11 dogs covering the number and 9 of them winning straight up, including 2 double digit dogs, NYG and Mia. We did get back to a winning week but when you see a week with that many dogs cashing you want a bigger week than 3-2 but obviously much better than last week.
Week 5 was a tough one and a good reminder that when handicapping we are trying to predict the most likely game scripts and results but we are always vulnerable to randomness. So for me the teaser loss last week is the one that really hurts. I should have trusted my cap and played Panthers straight, over the long term having a week like that go 2-3 rather than 1-4 makes a big difference. If the process is right we can’t let results impact us too much and got to keep firing.
Week 5: 1-4
Game 1: Cle +10 @ Hou
Bet%: Cle 40% Hou%
This feels like the perfect week to be on Cleveland and also the perfect week to fade Houston, add those together and I think there is a legitimate shot for the Browns to pull out a big upset and get their 1st win. Whether they do or not 10 points here is great value. (more…)
I knew our luck would run out at some point but even knowing that you always hope when it does it doesn’t go quite as bad as our week 5 did. Week 5 was rough, even the one win I had to sweat out but honestly outside of the Philly- Cardinals game the others I think all were good plays and things really just went sideways. It happens and when it does it hurts.
With 4 weeks of games in the books this is when I start digging a lot more into the numbers. We know every year that we see teams who look like contenders in the first 4 weeks fall off and I’m sure that will happen again but I definitely see some teams that are riding luck vs teams that seem to have genuinely improved and are deserving of their hot starts. It’s time to start trusting the math.
We are through the first quarter of the year and have 4 straight winning weeks in a row.
Winning in the NFL is hard, you can do all the right things, be on the right side and as we saw on Monday Night Football weird things can happen and it all goes up in smoke. That’s why runs like the one we are on to start the year really should be enjoyed because they really are rare and we know that a 0-4 or 1-3 week is always waiting around the corner.
Back Again. Last week we lost games on the Chargers and Seahawks and this week’s card begins with going back to both those teams. This really is make or break for these teams in terms of can they live up to the preseason expectations contenders for the playoffs or will they continue to disappoint and bring us closer to us branding them as pretenders. For Seattle and the Chargers I think we see big week 4 wins.
Last Week: 3-2
Game 1: Phi @ SD -2
Bet% Phi 58% SD 42%
Back to the Chargers well again. I keep telling myself they could have, nah should have won the first 2 games but of course they didn’t and now find themselves 0-3 in what is probably the most talented division in the league. Through 3 weeks we have 4 losses on the ledger and 2 of them have been the Chargers, if we don’t get a win it is going to be hard to back them again. (more…)