Month: October 2019

Week 7 NFL Picks

LW: 1-4

2019: 16-12

Game 1: KC @ Den -3

Bet% : KC 75% 25%

All the sharp and professional money is on the Broncos, this line opened at 4.5 and has been bet down to 3. The Bet%, sharp money all points to 1 side but I just cant pass up this price for KC. Even after 2 straight losses, Chiefs are still 3rd in DVOA, after 2 straight wins the Broncos are 18th. Denver beat Mariota and Tanehill last week, they beat Phillip Rivers and the decimated Chargers the week before and have faced mostly bottom 10 QBs this year outside of Aaron Rodgers. This is a super public play, the money is on other side but I cant imagine getting Chiefs this cheap again so I will bite.

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Week 6 NFL Picks

LW: 4-1

2019: 15-8

Carolina Panthers Christian Mccaffrey GIF - CarolinaPanthers ChristianMccaffrey Touchdown GIFs

Game 1: Cin +12 @ Bal

Bet%: Cin 53% Bal47%

I was on the Bengals last week and new very early I was on wrong side and looking back it is probably the type of bet its best to stay away from. Last week we needed a very bad Bengals team to not just win their first game vs the equally bad Cardinals but also do it by ore tan a FG, that is a big ask of a bad team. This week the Bengals are still a very bad team, 31st in DVOA, but the ask is to not lose by 2 TDs, which seems much more doable. (more…)

Week 5 NFL Picks

Last Week: 3-2

2019: 11-7

Philadelphia Eagles Football GIF by NFL

Game 1: Ari @ Cin-3

Bet% Ari 70% Cin 30%

These are objectively two of the worst teams in the league and statistically there is not a lot to separate them, ex in DVOA Arizona is 30th and the Bengals are 31st. For me the reason to bet the Bengals is just the spot. The Bengals played one of the worst games of the season on national TV on Monday Night, they couldn’t have looked worse and everyone saw it. The result of that game is we have 70% of bets on the winless Cardinals this week, on the road, a west coast team flying across country and playing in the early game. The Bengals have 2 games they were in position to win, week 1 in Seattle and week 3 in Buffalo, they lead both games 17-14 in the 2nd half before losing. That Buffalo loss followed a dismal home game vs the 49ers where Cincinnati got blown out 41-17, so we have seen the Bengals follow up a terrible performance with one of their best. The Bengals are home after 2 straight road games and go back on road next week, this has to be a circle game to get their coach is first win. (more…)