LW: 1-4
2019: 16-12
Game 1: KC -3 @ Den
Bet% : KC 75% 25%
All the sharp and professional money is on the Broncos, this line opened at 4.5 and has been bet down to 3. The Bet%, sharp money all points to 1 side but I just cant pass up this price for KC. Even after 2 straight losses, Chiefs are still 3rd in DVOA, after 2 straight wins the Broncos are 18th. Denver beat Mariota and Tanehill last week, they beat Phillip Rivers and the decimated Chargers the week before and have faced mostly bottom 10 QBs this year outside of Aaron Rodgers. This is a super public play, the money is on other side but I cant imagine getting Chiefs this cheap again so I will bite.
Game 2: Oak +6 (-115) @ GB
Bet% Oak 54% GB 46%
When betting an underdog you generally want to see at least one avenue, one matchup that could get the win straight up and I think we have that in this matchup. The Packers are clearly the better team, 7th in DVOA and +27 in point differential vs 18th in DVOA for the Raiders and -20. The one area the Packers have really struggled is the against the run, they are 26th vs the run in DVOA and their Dline is 30th. For the Raiders offense, their strength has been the run game with rookie Jacobs they are 3rd in DVOA and they have played some good defenses in the Vikings, Bronco’s, Bears and Colts.
For Oakland to be able to grind out the Packers they need to stay close enough to be able to keep running and that is where the Packers’ cluster injuries help Oakland. GB’s top WR Devante Adams is expected to miss this game and both Allison and Valdes Scantling have been injured this week so even if they play it’s hard to expect them to be close to 100%. It is very likely we see the Packers #4 and 5 receivers get a lot of plays in this game and its hard to see that going great. We also get a schedule advantage here with Oakland as they are coming off of a bye while the Packers are on a short week after playing on MNF.
* I bet this early in the week and line moved, would play at 4.5 but probably not under that
Game 3: Ari @ NYG -3
Bet% Ari 31% NYG 69%
These 2 teams are ranked 28th and 29th in DVOA but I think there is value here on the Giants based on the fact that they are getting their 2 best players back on offense with Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram and the fact that they have played a much tougher schedule than the Cardinals have. The Cardinals have won 2 straight games but against 2 of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Falcons and Bengals. The Giants in the last 2 weeks have faced the Patriots and Vikings and in their first 6 games the have faced 3 of the top 5 teams in DVOA.
This will be the easiest run defense the Giants have faced this year so it is a great landing spot for Barkley’s first game back but for the Cardinals David Johnson has been banged up and the Giants have been pretty good vs the run at 13th, Arizona is 25th. Finally we get a schedule advantage here as the Giants are coming off of 10 days rest after playing on TNF last week while Arizona has to flight East to West and play the early game for the 2nd time in 3 weeks.
Game 4: Phi +3 @ Dal
Bet% Phi 69% Dal 31%
As of Friday it seems like all of the Cowboys injured players specifically, Cooper, Smith and Collins are all expected to play but I still think the Eagles will have the advantage in this game. As improved as the Cowboys will be from getting back Cooper and their tackles the Eagles will be immeasurably improved by getting both Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby back for this game. The Eagles secondary has been a mess so far this season, between miscommunication to lack of confidence from players like Sidney Jones, opponents have been able to get big plays in the pass game whenever they needed them. Mills and Darby should at the every least make the Cowboys put together drives.
The big advantage in this game is that whole everyone has discussed the Cowboys regression on offense the last 3 weeks the problems are really on their defense and Cooper and Smith won’t help there. Dallas is 25th on defense, 23rd vs the pass and 19th vs the run so Eagles should be able to move the ball however they chose. On the flip side we have heard talk about getting Zeke more touches and if Cooper isn’t 100% I expect that to be a focus. The Eagles are 2nd vs the run and 13th overall and as I mentioned above I expect the Eagles defense vs the pass to improve with the return of their corners. There is also a revenge factor here, the Cowboys swept the Eagles last year including a crazy OT game in Dallas last year where the Eagles got robbed on 2 huge pays including a TD wiped out because of a facemask call on Dallas Goddard who had the ball and scored.
Game 5: Hou @ Ind pk
Bet% Hou 50% Ind 50%
A big divisional game in Indy who is coming off a bye and the be came at the exact right time for the Colts. The Colts have had some key injuries early in the year but for this game they are getting arguably their best players on offense, T.Y Hilton and defense Darius Leonard back. I think the Colts have a couple of advantages in this game, the key on defense will probably be getting pressure on Watson. Houston has not given up a sack the last 2 games but is still 25th in adjusted sack rate, so are the last 2 games an indication of improved line play or a product of playing the Chiefs and Falcons? I’m guessing the latter. Houston lost Titus Howard to injury so the depth of that line will be tested. T
This is a good schedule spot for the Colts, they are coming off a bye while Houston is playing their second straight road game and is coming off of their biggest win of the season in KC last week. The Colts Offensive line has been one of the best in the league so far, they are 4th in adjusted sack rate and if they can get the run game going I can see this game playing out similar to the Panthers Houston game 3 weeks ago where Carolina won 16-10. Frank Reich also seems to have Bill O’Brien’s number after winning the last 3 head to head.
Game 6: Bal @ Sea Over 48.5
Bet% Over 68% Under 32%
These are not the Ravens and Seahawks we have become accustomed to seeing through the years, there is no more Legion of Boom and there is no more historic Raven defense, these are both offense first teams. In this game we have the #3 and #4 offenses, the Ravens are the #1 run offense behind Lamar Jackson and Seattle is the #1 Pass offense behind Russell Wilson and both are facing the #21 ranked run and pass defenses. Seattle has seen 5 of their 6 games this season go over and the Ravens have scored 25 or more in every game except 1, last week they only got 23 in a game they controlled start to finish vs the Bengals. Both these defenses are bottom 5 in adjusted sack rate so the QB’s should feel comfortable and both these teams have been good at avoiding turnovers with 6 and 7 respectively, turnovers kill over bets so having 2 teams that protect the ball should help push this game over.
Game 7: NE @ NYJ +10
Bet% NE 61% NYJ 39%
Another tough Sunday but you gotta just keep trucking on and hope that taking the right side pays off. Here I think the Jets are getting a lot of value at 10 due to the injuries on the Patriots. NE has not been a good run team, 18th in DVOA and 28th in Yards per attempt, yet it feels like they will need good play out of this unit to win big in MNF. The NE passing game will be without Josh Gordon this week leaving them with Eddleman, Dorsett and not a lot else. The Jets get CJ Mosely back on defense this week for the first time since week 1 and I think that unit gets a boost but really the defense has been fine this year 16th in DVOA. Being home on MNF for what will probably be heir most marquee game this year, I think the defense can really hang with this injured Patriots group and the offense looked completely different with Darnold. Really like this spot.
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