I can’t remember a Superbowl I cared less about but here we are.
2022 Playoffs 3-4:
2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1
Bet 1: Cin @ LAR ML (-190) : I didn’t see much value in the line which seems right at 4 but like all SB’s you can get value on the ML favorite price as so many bettors take the ML on the dog. I have been wrong on the Bengals throughout the playoffs so if they win the SB it would be fitting but in the end the Rams advantage on both lines of scrimmage seems like too much to overcome to me. For season grading purposes I will grade a win as +1 and loss as -2 in the record.
Props
Haven’t bet a bunch but I did take the following and honestly this season has been so hit and miss that it would take getting one of the MVP bets to come through to make the year a decent one.
Joe Burrow over 0.5 Interceptions at -145
Even Macpherson over 7.5 Points at -130
and Superbowl MVP bets on Cooper Cupp at +550, Cam Akers at +2700 and Aaron Donald at +1800
Last week was really wrong on the #1 seeds but salvaged the slat on Sunday to go 2-2.
2022 Playoffs 3-2:
2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1
Championship Round
Game 1: Cin @ KC Over 53:
Game 2: Cin @ KC-7
I like KC on the side and also think the over is the best bet on the board. The Chiefs offense is playing at it’s highest level all year, Mahomes feels unstoppable and the Bengals defense is not one that is going to be able to hang. I can see Chiefs getting out to a lead and Bengals being heavy pass and such they should be able to score as well. I also think the fact that Chiefs will get pressure could lead to short fields and quick scores and the Bengals big plays could have success vs that same aggressive Chiefs defense.
Game 3: SF +3.5 @ LAR – This bet is just on the number, I think the Rams probably win but this 2 most likely games states here are in my opinion, 1) Rams win by 3 or less and 2) 49ers win by 3 or less making the hook super valuable here. Shanahan has had great success vs the McVay and the Rams and I think it is really based on matchups, the 49ers are going to have success on the ground and keep this game close.
Got off to nice start to playoffs especially with the 49ers ML Hit last week, on 3 of the games this week
2022 Playoffs:2-1
2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1
Game 1: Cin @ TEN -3.5 : this feels like a game where the Bye week pays huge dividends. Titans get Henry back for this game, and Brown and Jones got an extra week to get healthy. Meanwhile Bengals are coming off biggest win for franchise in 30 years and City and team have celebrated as basically the Superbowl. Feels like Bengals are good for this year.
Game 2: SF @ GB -5.5: The 49ers if healthy and in a more ideal situation would have some great matchup advantages in this game but Jimmy G playing with a separated shoulder in freezing Lambeau Field added to the fact that this will be their 3rd straight week on the road, 4th week out of 5 while Green Bay comes off the bye and I think this game is more likely to be Packers by 2TDs than it is 49ers winning straight up.
Game 3: Buf @ KC -2 : Everyone is on the Bills in this game and after last week’s basically perfect performance it is hard not to see why that would be. I am going to stick with the Chiefs at home here, I like the turnaround by the offense the last month and the big reason is how much the defense improved 2nd half. The Chiefs finished the year 24th in defensive DVOA but in Weighted DVOA they finished 13th. We have also seen the Bills put up some less than stellar games throughout the season, the final regular season game they let the Jets stick around for 3 quarters before finally putting them away late, they were down to the Falcons at half the week before that before again scoring late and of course we can’t forget losing to the Jags and giving them their first win. I think hoe field is big here and Chiefs pull out a close one
Game 4: LAR +3 @ TB
Didn’t realize I had not posted this one but here is screen print
Finished the Regular season 50-49-1 which is not great and really need a strong playoffs to make the year count.
2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1
Game 1: LV @ Cin Under 49: Both teams had some high scoring games late in the year that I think pushed this total up, I expect both teams to play this game more conservatively and try to use the run game a lot and it wouldn;t surprise me if we get a really slow first halg=f that helps keep this game under.
Game 2: NE +4.5 @ Buf: The Bills are clearly the better team but I do think that even though they are the home team, being outside in a really old game isn’t their ideal play state. I expect the Bills to pull this game out but I do think its a struggle and getting 4.5 here is good value.
Game 3: SF ML +142 @ Dal: It feels like everyone is on the 49ers and that does scare me but of all the games tis one feels like the most 50/50 to me, I think both offenses game have significant advantages in this game, SF in the run game and Dallas in the deep passing game and whoever is best able to exploit their advantage will win. That is why I am taking SF ML rather than the 3 points. I can see a scenario where Dallas attacks the 49ers secondary and wins by 10+. I can also see SF controlling the game on the ground and winning by a TD.
A very nice bounce back week in week 15 and had the refs not robbed Seattle at the end on a terrible non call we would be another 2 units up.
Week 15: 5-2
2021: 47-43-1
Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt Teaser: GB -1.5 & Buf +8 : Wong teaser, Cleveland has been so shorthanded with both injuries and covid that the season is slipping away, now going on road and playing in Lambo in December is a tough assignment, I like the Packers to win by at least a FG. Buffalo in a revenge spot here vs the Patriots, the wind should be easier to handle and I don’t see this game being over a TD either way.
Game 2: Ind @ Ari -1: This seems like the spot to buy the Cardinals at their absolute bottom after a terrible loss to the Lions and selling the Colts at their absolute top after their win over the Pats. If the Cardinals offense gets going back to their normal level, I don’t trust Wentz to keep pace without a few mistakes.
Game 3: TB @ Car +11.5: The Bucs are on the road missing their top 3 offensive weapons on the season, Godwin, Evans and Fournette, this feels like way too many points and a game the Bucs just try to go in and get out with a win and without pressing too much.
Game 4: LAR @ Min +3.5: This line moved a half point after Dalvin Cook was ruled out and I don’t think Mattison is that much of a negative plus Theilen is active. Rams have had some terrible road games, Minnesota is one of the last real home field advantages, this feels like a coin toss game so getting the hook is big.
Game 5: Chi +7 @ Sea : As an Eagles fan I will never not believe in Nick Foles, not sure how anyone can bet on the Seahawks as a TD favorite and while Fields probably gives a much higher ceiling game, the floor is probably worse than with Foles.
Game 6: Was @Dallas Under 47: Dallas has played a much slower pace since Dak came back from injury, Washington gets Taylor Heinike back but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets off to a slow start and Washington may also be without Antonio Gibson for this game or at least a less than 100% Gibson. I can see the Dallas defense cause all kinds of problems here.
Last week had 2 of the worst losses I can remember with the Browns blowing a massive lead to a backup QB and end up winning by 2 when I had -2.5 and then the Bills +3.5 losing in OT even when they got the ball first and limiting what should have been a really big week.
LW: 3-2
2021: 42-41-1
Game 1: KC -3 @ LAC – This line was up to 3.5 and touching 4 when injuries on the Chiefs defense to Chris Jones and their secondary brought money back on Chargers. I still like KC, I think the offense has been much better but they have been in games where the defense has played so well that they haven’t needed to push the ball as much. That being said in DVOA the offense is back to 5th and overall the Chiefs are 7th in DVOA and 4th in weighted. I will keep riding the Chiefs here.
Game 2: NE @ IND -2: This feels like a big spot for the Colts, I think the Pats defense is a little overated due to some special circumstances including weather vs Buf and TB and some luck in terms of injuries, I can see the Colts offense having success in this game that they have to have.
Game 3: NE @ IND Over 45.5 : I mentioned above that I think the Pats defense is overated, I think that is true of both defenses in this game and I think both offenses will have success here. This total has been steamed up, opened at 43 and has gone as high as 46 and I think by Saturday night we will see some 47’s.
Game 4: Was @ Phi -4: (Bet Cancelled- Game day Moved)This line is obviously not available anymore with all of the Covid issues WFT is having, I bet this Monday morning but I think I would play it still as long as the number is below 10. The Eagles have actually not played close games in their wins, 5 of their 6 wins have been by double digits and in this game Washington is basically starting a preseason roster.
Game 4: Ten @ Pit ML : A must win game for the Steelers at home and they are the far healthier team in this game, line has moved from Ten as fav to Steelers, like the move and spot for Pittsburgh who is coming off of extra rest.
Game 5:Cin +3 @ Den: In the end I just trust this Bengals offense a lot more than Denver, this line moved from Cin a small fav in look ahead to now Broncos a full 3 because the Bengals lost to SF in OT and the Broncos blew out the Lions? A Lions team that was also decimated by illness? this feels like too much value on Bengals.
Game 6: Was @ Phi -7.5 Rescheduled for Tuesday night, my -4 on Sunday was cancelled and this reopened at 6.5. I waited too long to bet and only got it after the announcement that it was likely that Gibert would start at QB for Was. It does not look like Washington is getting many of their players back from Covid and the Eagles are fully healthy and sound very motivated. Betting a shitty number but I think they win by double digits.
Game 7: Sea +7.5 @ LA Rams : I don’t have much on this game but these teams generally play very tight games and getting over a TD, even with Lockett out seems like value here.
Back to back 2-3 weeks have been painful, last week the 2 big dogs I was on both lost and both the games I scratched off my card on Sunday morning, Seattle and the Pittsburgh both won. It be like that sometimes.
Week 13: 2-3
2021: 39-39-1
Game 1: Pit @ Min -3 (-123) : Didn’t get to post this in morning but bet this game around noon, when the Vikings activated Dalvin Cook.
Game 2: 2 Team 6 point Teaser: Atl +8.5 and Sea -1.5 : Teasers have been absolutely death for me the last month, that has to change at some point here. This was my fav of the Wong teasers, think Falcons will likely win straight up and Seattle gets to play against Davis Mills.
Game 3: SF @ Cin Over 48.5 : The 49ers offense is rolling and they may get Deebo Samuels back, if they do this line will cross 50. one of the thigs that jumped out to e when looking at the Bengals game log is a team has scored 41 points in 4 of the Bengals last 6 games, in one of the 2 games that didn’t happen the final was 34-31 vs the Jets.
Game 4: Buf +3.5 @ TB: Last week was basically a worst case scenario for the Bills, they are not a team that wants to run and they were also hampered by some poor luck in the redzone. Getting the hook here is too good to pass up and I think we could see a show out game for the Bills offense here.
Game 5: Bal @ Cle -2.5 – Fading both Ravens and Steelers after their game last week, not only were Ravens ravaged with injuries but Browns have unprecedented situation playing the same team back to back with bye in between.
I felt really good about last week’s card and 2 of the 3 losses weren’t close. Dogs have been on fire the last month and I will be on a few big ones this week.
LW: 2-3
2021: 37-36-1
Game 1: Phi -6.5 @ NYJ – This is obviously a bad number, I bet it on Thursday after Hurts stated he would be starting which he is no longer expected to do. The line has dropped to 5 with Hurts injury while I would rather have the better number I still think the Eagles offensive line will dominate this game and Minshue is good enough to make the relatively few throws that will be required of him
Game 2: Ind @ Hou +10 : This just feels like a flat spot for the Colts, the last 2 weeks the COlts blew out the Bills and then played an OT game vs the Bucs. Next week the Colts play the Patriots and then the Cardinals, this week vs Houston feels like the ultimate letdown game.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 point teaser: Min -1.5 & Was +7.5 – Minnespta is now 10th in DVOA, Det is 31, THese teams played a close game in their first meeting I just don’t see how the Lions offense keeps up especially with Swift out,
Game 4: TB @ Atl+11: The Buc have been a different team on the road and the Falcons have traditionally played them tough. This is just a lot of points and its not often you get a QB as good Matt Ryan getting over double digits at home.
Game 5: LAC +3 @ Cin – I do not know how you get to 3 in this game, I think the Chargers are the better team and not sure how much you give he Bengal’s homefield. To me this should Cin -1.5 so getting the Chargers at 3, is too good to pass up.
Finally had a nice break out week after eking out plus weeks the last couple though my luck in Teasers continues to elude even though I am getting great CLV on those numbers.
Week 11: 4-1
2021: 35-33-1
Game 1: Atl -1 @ Mia: The Falcons are last via DVOA despite having 4 wins but I think you can see a distinct split in their season. When Atlanta plays top end teams they get blown out, see TB, Dallas, NE when the play the middle they lose close games but when they play the bottom they win. Falcons have wins over Miami, NY Jets and the Giants and I see this game similar to those, I can see Atlanta winning this one pretty easily.
Game 2:Car -2 @ Mia: I regret not fading the Panthers last week, the Cam hype had gotten out of control and Was as definitely the right side. That being said Cam was fine and definitely lifts this offense from the floor Darnold had them at. By DVOA Panthers have a decent edge here 19 vs 27 and I think the Panthers as currently constructed are probably a little better than that with a healthy defense and Cam at QB.
Game 3: Min +3.5 @ SF : I think the Vikings are one of the most undervalued teams in the league, I like both these teams and think they are pretty even, I don;’ give SF much of a home field advantage so getting the hook here is too good to pass up.
Game 4 : LAR -1 @ GB: This feels like a great spot for the Rams, coming off of a bye and 2 straight losses not only will Stafford be healthier but they should have a chance to incorporate OBJ more into the game. Meanwhile Rodgers is clearly hurt with a toe injury and the Packers have not been quite as good as their record indicates, by DVOA Rams are 6 while GB is 13. : Cle @ Bal -3: Have not bet this game yet but if it stays at 3 and Lamar is a go, this price is too cheap.
Game 5: Cle @ BAL -3 : The Browns are getting healthy at RB but the issue remains the health of the QB. At 3bthisbprice is too cheap and I am going tonride with Lamar.
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