Finally had a nice break out week after eking out plus weeks the last couple though my luck in Teasers continues to elude even though I am getting great CLV on those numbers.
Week 11: 4-1
Game 1: Atl -1 @ Mia: The Falcons are last via DVOA despite having 4 wins but I think you can see a distinct split in their season. When Atlanta plays top end teams they get blown out, see TB, Dallas, NE when the play the middle they lose close games but when they play the bottom they win. Falcons have wins over Miami, NY Jets and the Giants and I see this game similar to those, I can see Atlanta winning this one pretty easily.
Game 2:Car -2 @ Mia: I regret not fading the Panthers last week, the Cam hype had gotten out of control and Was as definitely the right side. That being said Cam was fine and definitely lifts this offense from the floor Darnold had them at. By DVOA Panthers have a decent edge here 19 vs 27 and I think the Panthers as currently constructed are probably a little better than that with a healthy defense and Cam at QB.
Game 3: Min +3.5 @ SF : I think the Vikings are one of the most undervalued teams in the league, I like both these teams and think they are pretty even, I don;’ give SF much of a home field advantage so getting the hook here is too good to pass up.
Game 4 : LAR -1 @ GB: This feels like a great spot for the Rams, coming off of a bye and 2 straight losses not only will Stafford be healthier but they should have a chance to incorporate OBJ more into the game. Meanwhile Rodgers is clearly hurt with a toe injury and the Packers have not been quite as good as their record indicates, by DVOA Rams are 6 while GB is 13.
Waiting on : Cle @ Bal -3: Have not bet this game yet but if it stays at 3 and Lamar is a go, this price is too cheap.
Last week could have been so much bigger as we went 5-1 on sides but the Teasers were a killer (0-3). Still, stacking winning weeks together again finally and I know a big week is coming.
Week 10: 5-4
Game 1: Ind +7.5 @ Buf : Buffalo is the #1 defense by DVOA but I don’t think we have seen them challenged by a great run offense besides the Titans who had a field day. This is the healthiest the COlts have been on the offensive line and I think they stay close in this game.
Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ten: Titans are the hottest team in the league winning 6 in a row and the last 5 were all high profile games against the likes of the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, Colts and Saints. This definitely feels like a game the Titans take a deep breath and with their injuries at RB and WR I think it is a big task for them to cover a number this big.
Game 3: 2 Team6 Point Teaser: GB @ Min +8 and Ari @ Sea +8.5
Back to the Wong Teaser taking both the Vikings and Seahawks through the 3 and 7. The Vikings and Packers are basically evenly ranked in most effeciancy rankings despite the Packers having 4 more wins, in fact in DVOA Vikings are 9th while the 8 win Packers are 12th.
Seattle is coming off the worst performance of Russell Wilson’s career, first game back from injury has been a big deal for QBs this year and in this game we are likely to get that situation with Kyler Murray. If Murray ends up missing then this is a really great bet as we are likely to get 3-4 more points of value.
Game 4- Ari – Sea Under 24 First Half
Game 5- Ari- Sea Under 48
Taking the under on the Seattle- Arizona game under both for first half and full game. If Kyler Murray plays this will be his first game back from injury in 3 weeks, Hopkins is also expected to miss this game and I would expect them to get off to a slow start. While I like Seattle to win this game between Russ still getting back to form and the Seahawks likely to try to run a lot in his game I expect it to stay in the low 40’s. If Murray ends up missing this total will probably drop 3-4 points by gametime.
Finally got back and had a winning week though it looked like it was going to be a much better day during the morning but still felt good to be back in the winning vibe.
Week 8: 4-3
Game 1: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Cle +8.5
Game 2: 2 team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Phi +8.5
The first 2 bets of the week both have the Ravens in a teaser one with the Broncos and one with the Eagles. Baltimore is going to be as healthy in this game as they have been all year meanwhile the Dolphins don’t know which QB will be starting for them. Not only do we get the full value of the Stanford Wong teaser taking Baltimore through the 7 and 3 but by having the game go on Thursday we get the opportunity to use the 2nd legs of the teasers together on Sunday if the Ravens don’t cover.
Both the Browns and Eagles are ranked higher in DVOA than their opponents so the ability to tease them up through the 3 and 7 is very attractive here and I think there is a good chance both win straight up and I will be using them in a ML parlay.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 point teaser: Cle +8.5 & Phi +8: The Baltimore loss killed both of the open teasers and started the week 0-2. Using Browns and Eagles to try to see if one Wong teaser can get through
Game 4: Det +7 @ Pit: With Rothlisberger out this feels like one of the last big attempts for the Lions t try to get their first win, I am taking them +7 and on the ML.
Game 5: Car +10.5 @ Ari : Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are both expected to miss this game and I think we are likely to see a much more difficult time for this offense this week vs last. The Panthers defense is #6 DVOA, this depleted Arizona offense minus the starting QB, WR and RB is going to be a matchup that that I think the Panthers will have success against. On offense a second straight week of CMC and change at QB which can’t be worse that Darnold I think this is a great spot for Carolina to play well.
Game 6: Sea +4 @ GB : Obviously a difficult game to feel great about with 1 QB coming back from injury and another coming back from Covid. In the end I think getting Seattle who despite missing Wilson the last month is still higher in DVOA than the Packers 13 to 15 and this is a game the Seahawks absolutely need to get back into playoff run so getting 4 here is worth the shot
Game 7: NO +3 @ Ten – Adding the Saints on Sunday morning, think this is just selling Titans at the top, they are due for some regression and playing maybe the best defense in the league.
Game 8: KC -2.5 @ LV : going to take the Chiefs here. If we are going just by the first 8 weeks of this season the Chiefs prob don’t deserve to be favored but I think the offense is going to figure this out eventually and if you give me a chance to back them under a FG I’m going to take it.
Game 9: LAR @ SF +4 : this feels like one ofnthe biggest betting splits of the week. +80% bets are the Rams yet the line has stayed at 4 Nd at sharper spots been down to 3.5 most of week. Rams will have to adjust to losing Robert Woods and incorporating OBJ in which I think will impact their rythem on offense. 49ers have been really bad the last month and this game feels like a bit if a last stand.
The struggle continued in week 8 and after a fantastic September the last 2 weeks have seen us give back all the gains from the first 5 weeks. These are definitely the weeks you want to run and hide but we are back and I do like this card.
Week 8: 1-5
Game 1: Buf -14 @ Jax : I can’t even think of a time I have bet a 14 point favorite but this we are in a tie where the difference of the haves and have nots and here we have the Jags who are capable of getting beat by 2TDs plus as they have 2 of the last 3 weeks. This week Jags are missing James Robinson who has been the most consistent offensive weapon the Jags have, this is a game the Bills could win by 20 even if they play poorly.
Game 2: Hou +6.5 @ Mia: Miami is a 1 win team that is almost a TD fav here, I bet this before we knew that Tyrod Taylor was back but it did seem likely and I didn’t think this line was going up. Even at the 5 I would take the Texans, Miami is 27th in DVOA and does not deserve to be a favorite of that size vs anyone.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 Pt Teaser : Browns +8.5 & Rams -1.5: Classic Wong teaser, at this point I think I will only bet teasers when I have games that fit that criteria, going through the 7 and 3 and we have that here on both sides. I like the Browns , think with the OBJ news they will have a an uptick in performance, the Browns are still a top 10 team by DVOA while the Bengals are 21st. The Rams get the Titans in their first game minus Derek Henry at home, we get them here below a TD.
Game 4 : Atl +6 @ New Orleans : I can’t imagine that the Falcons are going to be a team that many are going to want to back them but asking the Saints to cover a number this large with the 20th ranked offense by DVOA up to this point and now with Trevor Simien at QB seems like too much.
Game 5: LAC -1.5 @ Phi: The Chargers and Eagles are back to back in DVOA but I think the Chargers are still a much better team, Eagles have looked great in their wins vs the Falcon’s and Lions and looked ok in win against the Panthers but in the games where they have played against offenses with quality QBs the defense has been rendered overwhelmed. With LA we get the better QB, better offense and better coach.
Game 6: NE @ Car Under 42: Adding this game on Sunday Morning, Panthers will be playing a very banged up Sam Darnald at QB, McCafrey also expected to return and be on a play count, I don’t see either play near q00% and Pats should be able to contain a very struggling defense. I also think the Panthers defense is getting healthy, Stephon Gilmore is back and think they get a lot of pressure on the rookie QB.
Game 7: Chi +6.5 @ Pit: Have not bet yet still hoping we see a 7 show up even at -120 by Monday but plan to be on the Bears
Coming off of a truly terrible week last week and looking to the heavens for a few winners.
Week 7: 0-4
Game 1: Ten @ Ind -1 : This feels like the high point for the Titans coming off of 2 massive wins vs the Bills and Chiefs. The Colts match up really well vs the Titans, Colts have the #1 DVOA run defense so they are probably as well equipped to slow Henry down as anyone and the offense has been playing it’s best football the last 4 weeks and Wentz is now 4th EPA per play and for the first time this year will have their entire offensive line healthy and playing.
Game 2: Pit @ Cle-3.5 : The Browns are expected to get the bulk of the injured players back in this game including Nick Chubb and most likely Baker Mayfield, they will also get their tackles back in this game. If the Browns are mostly healthy and playing at home I think his is a big mismatch, the Browns defense should be able to get a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger and they are the #3 team vs the run. The Steelers offense has been heavily reliant on the running game and I don’t think they are set up to have success without Najee Davis as their focal point. I think we are getting value here because we have basically seen the Browns at 60% the last few weeks.
Game 3: NE @ LAC -4.5 : By DVOA the Patriots are ranked higher than the Chargers 12th vs 17th but I am way lower on New England than the market and the raw numbers. NE has 3 wins this season against the Jets, the Jets and Houston and 2 of those games were absolute blowouts which helps the numbers and DVOA doesn’t properly weigh strength of schedule this early in season. The Jets did have close losses to the Patriots in that very strange Brady comeback game in a storm and at Dallas a game that Dallas dominated everywhere except the scoreboard. The Chargers have played a much more difficult schedule, have wins over Chiefs, Raiders and Browns and I think probably remember the blowout loss last year at the hands of NE.
Game 4: Jax +4 @ Sea : I just don’t see how anyone could feel good about taking Seattle minus Russell Wilson, minus Chris Carson with Pete Carrol relying on a less than 100% Alex Collins. Wilson has covered up so many of the issues of the Seahawks that I wouldn’t be surprised for this season to completely fall off the rails now. I think the Jags are live here.
Game 5: NYG @ KC -9: I am going to ride with the Chiefs one last time here to see if we have seen rock bottom. The turnover rate seems impossible to continue but yet again we saw the interceptions again last week. KC has played 2 similar NFC East teams to the Giants in WFT and the Eagles and had 2 of their best offensive performances. Maybe this year is just one of those outlier years and Mahomes ends up with 20+ interceptions but I am going to jump in here and hope we see some normalization and regression of those turnovers. Minus the turnovers I don’t see how the Giants keep up and expect KC to win by 2 TDs.
Game 6 Phi– 3@ Det: This lie came back to 3, it is the last stand for the Eagles, I expect a much more aggressive defense, this was all the talk in Philly this week, Eagles coming off there worst performance of the year, this is the last stand for this team and staff.
This week feels like one of the toughest/ugliest slates of the year, there is not much I love here and this will probably be my smallest card of the year unless we see major movement Sunday morning.
Week 6: 3-3
Game 1: Phi +3 @ LV : I think I have a good beat on the Eagles defense, against elite competition they can’t hold up and can be exploited, we have seen that with Dallas, KC and TB, 3 of the 4 top offensive teams by DVOA. Against the rest they can be very good especially teams that are not strong in pass protection, the Eagles defensive line is top 5 in pass rush win rate. I think the Eagles Dline has a big game and on offense this could be a big Miles Sanders as Eagles coaches have talked this week about getting him more involved. This opened 3.5 and immediately got bet down and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops below the 3 by kickoff. I think Eagles win straight up and will be sprinkling on ML as well.
Game 2: KC -4 @ Ten : I remain higher on KC than the overall market and certainly more that the mainstream power rankings have them. Chiefs are #1 in EPA per pass, #2 in DVOA offense all while leading the league in turnovers, only rookie Zach Wilson with 9 has more and the Chiefs are the leaders in fumbles with 6. I expect some turnover regression, yes Mahomes has made some bad throws but he has also been unlucky with some like the one that hit Tyreke Hill in the hands last week. Fumbles are almost all random so we should expect some games with minimum turnover and if that happens this week I just don’t see how the Titans get any stops.
Game 3: Hou +18 @ Ari : I mean 18 points is a ton in the NFL, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Arizona to win by 3 TDs, it’s certainly possible as we basically have the top rated team here vs the worst. I just don’t think the Cardinals will have much incentive to play to the wire in this game, one, we already saw them play them at half speed vs the Jaguars cruise to an easy win and with a huge TNF game vs the Packers I can see them easing off some of the best players late in this game if it is in hand vs the Texans.
Game 4: Cin @ Bal -6: I know the Bengals have been a popular play this week, the Ravens have had some very close late finishes go there way in Detroit, KC and on MNF vs the Colts. I think last week is closer to who we should expect from Baltimore because they are finally getting healthy on defense. I think the Bengals are a little overrated here and we have a major coaching advantage for the Ravens so I am happy to take them in this spot
Very rough week on week 5, 1-2 with teasers and even the one that cashed needed a miracle finish but ‘Ain’t no pity party for yourself You gotta get up rise for your wealth’ Were on to week 6.
Week 5: 2-5-1
TNF: Game 1: TB @ Phi +7: This line moved from 7.5 to 7 despite majority of bets on the Bucs. TB is coming off of a destruction of the Dolphins and you can see why they would be popular but they have massive injuries in the secondary and the Eagles are team that is as pass heavy as any in the league. I fully expect a high scoring game and the Bucs to be able to score into the 30’s but Hurts and the Eagles offense should be able to keep this within striking range and they have continued to be aggressive late in games even when down big so the backdoor cover is definitely in play.
Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ind : There are games that come on the board where logic for the bet is “Who is this team to be favored by this many points”. The Colts played a very good game on prime time last week, the best of their season, a game the ended up losing and they remain with just 1 win this year. Colts are 24th in DVOA how are they 10.5 points better than anyone? One thing I will say for Houston is that David Culley is an extremely conservative coach who I believe takes a lot of value in being close in games. Culley is not likely to make high leverage calls that could create big swings either way but rather play down the middle and stay in the mix.
Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser– KC -1 @ Was and LAC +8.5 @ Bal – KC is going to have a field day on offense in this game and Washington has enough injuries and the Heineke has enough turnover level play in him that I think KC could jump out big early in this game. If this comes back down to KC -6.5 even money I will be on that as well.
Chargers are playing great football, I like the Ravens to win a close one but we get Herbert at a TD plus and really the only game I like that goes through the 3 and 7.
Game 4: Min -2.5 @ CAR : This number has risen during the week from Min-1 to 2.5 not a huge move but it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets to the 3 on Sunday morning. The Vikings have been extremely unlucky this year with a few huge high leverage mistakes/ calls going against them and as a result they could easily be 4-1. By DVOA the Vikings are 13th overall, getting a healthy Dalvin Cook back and have a bye coming up so I think this is an all out type game. The Panthers meanwhile have a ton of injuries including Christian McCaffrey who early in the week looked like he might play but was instead put on IR. Panthers will also be without Shaq Thompson and the secondary is extremely thin.
Game 5: Ari @ Cle -3 (-120): This feels like the perfect spot to fade the 5-0 Cards. Kyler Murray is a little banged up and we have seen his TD production slip a little the last few weeks. The Browns will be missing Nick Chubb but with Kareem Hunt I don’t see that injury having much impact, the injury I do believe will matter is Arizona losing their starting C Rodney Hudson.
Game 6: KC -6 @ Wsh: Late add, this line dropped Sunday morning, to me this just feels like the low point for the Chiefs and I don’t give any home field advantage to Washington so this is a play for me at this price
Last week was one of those dream weeks that help make your season. If Tom Brady had not forgot how to complete a pass for 3 quarters we could have gone 7-0 but still had 3 dogs of FG or more win straight up and overall just a fantastic week. We Good over here
Week 4: 6-1
Game 1: 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Sea +8 & Vikings -2
I’m have already used the Vikings in 2 teasers and may use them again. Minnesota is 1-3, you can make the case they should be at very least 2-2 but probably could be 3-1. Still they are 1-3 and absolutely needs this game and are going to have one of the biggest advantages in Oline/Dline matches.
Seattle at home is an underdog and a perfect teaser candidate, I think there is a good shot they can win is a huge advanatge to be home on TNF this game but either way this game is likely to be a 1 score game.
Game 2 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Dal -2 & Vikings -2
Using the Vikings again in this one with the Cowboys. Dallas has one of the hottest offenses in the league, they are at home and get the Giants coming off of a dramatic comeback win. It’s early days but Dallas is #2 in DVOA overall this year and I don’t see them tripping up against the Giants.
Game 3: Phi @ Car Over 44.5
I think this total is dependent on what you think of the Panthers defense because I don;t think there is much question that the Eagles defense is a bottom 10 group and Carolina is going to score in this game. In DVOA the Panthers are 4th in defense but early on those rankings do not really account for level of competition and in the first 3 weeks Carolina played the Jets, Texans and a Saints offense that hasn’t hit 200 yards passing. I think Panthers probably have a middle of the pack Defense, Dallas had no problems scoring last week and I think Philly will be able to move the ball as well. I think this game gets into the 50’s pretty easily.
Game 4: Ten-4 @ Jax
The Urban Meyer mess can’t help here but the starting point is from he Jags being one of the worst 3 teams in the league, currently 31 by DVOA. Last week the Titans lost to the Jets in OT but despite missing both their top WRs they still had 430 yards of offense and ran 93 plays. AJ Brown was full particpant on Thursday, with Brown and Henry, Titans should have more than enough to beat this Jags team that has had a lot to deal with this week in terms of distractions.
Game 5: SF +5.5 @ Ari:
This is a game that has a lot of sharp money that has come in on it and it is basically because we have Arizona at the absolute peak of their value, preseason this game was a pick, last week this game was Arizona -2.5 and now it opened 6 after the Cards won again and the 49ers lost at home to Seattle. I don’t downgrade SF with Lance at QB in fact I think the likelihood of a ML win goes up as does the chance they get blown out.
Game 6: GB @ Cin -3
This line has been consistently dropping all week and may end below the 3. The Packers will be without their best and maybe most important defensive player Jaire Alexander and the Bengals can definitely take advantage. The sharp money is clearly playing Bengals in this spot and I think based on the injuries I agree.
Game 7: 2 team 6pt teaser: Dal -1.5 & Bal -1.5
We lost the first teaser with Seattle losing by 9 on TNF so using Dallas again with the Ravens on MNF.
Game 8: Buf @ KC -2.5
Adding the KC game, I am not sure when we will get Patrick Mahomes at home under a FG fav again. This is an overreaction to 2 losses by KC where they had late turnovers that cost them games. KC offense is performing at all time level, Bills have been very good on defense but don’t think it matters much here if the offense has to settle for FGs.
We were Back in Business Week 3 after a down week 2 and started off week 3 with a couple of bets n the openers where the line moves have agreed with the bets.
Game 1: KC -5.5 @ Phi – I bet this game before MNF. Even though I had the Eagles in that game this line seemed much more likely to go to 7 than 4 and I was ok holding 5.5 even if Philly won. We get the Chiefs off of 2 straight losses where late mistakes cost them and through 3 weeks they have played well enough to be 3-0 despite playing very good competition. The Eagles have lost 3 starters on the offensive line and defensively I don’t see how they slow KC down without a bunch of turnover help. This line has moveed to 7 which would probably still be aplay for me but I obviously feel better about the number I got.
Game 2 TB -5.5 @ NE : What scares me about this game is that it is maybe the most lopsided bet game in a long time with 85-88% of bets on TB depending on where you look and that is never a good thing especially for a primetime game. The line has remained under a TD so despite the number of bets there seems to be some strong money on NE. For me, this feels like a game that if TB gets up early, I don’t see how NE catches them, last week The Rams and previously the Cowboys were able to take advantage of the TB issues in the secondary with 3 and 4 wide sets, that doesnt seem like someghing the Pats and their rookie QB are going to excel at.
Game 3: Bal+1 @ Den: The final of the 3 opening numbers I bet was Ravens as a small dog against the Broncos. Denver is 3-0 but as has been mentioned all week the 3 teams they have beat are 0-10. Denver has performed exactly how you would want vs weaker competition but there is still a question of how they will look against a playoff team. I think the injuries for Denver at WR and Chubb on defense make them a tier below a team like the Ravens.
Game 4: NYG +7.5 @ NO: I think this is a great spot for the Giants, the Saints have been great defensively but I don’t know how you trust an offense this bad with more than a TD and I do think Giants are live in this game.
Game 5: Sea +3(-120) @ SF – I still have Seattle as the better team over SF despite 2 straight losses and I don’t think SF has much of a home field so at 3 this is definitely a play. SF was less than impressive in Philly and even in the opener against Detroit and since have had a number of key injuries. Coming off of 2 losses that they led both by 2 scores I can see Seattle coming through and holding on to a straight up win here and will have a bet on the ML as well.
Game 6: Cle -1 @ Min: Kirk Cousins is off to a great start but historically has struggled vs pressure and the Browns are one of the best front 4’s in the NFL add in that Kevin Stefanski coached in Minnesota and knows Cousins as well as anyone and I like the Browns in this spot.
Game 7: Late Add Ari+4 @ LAR
This seems to be one of the games that lots of sharp money is coming in on, you get the Rams coming off of their Game of the Year win last vs TB and even though this is a division game it is a let down spot. Arizona had their let down spot last week and played a terrible half vs the Jags before coming back and this seems like a nice spot to get more than a FG.
Off a bad week last week with lots of missed opportunities but it’s a long season and the MNF game helped minimize the damage.
Week 2: 2-4
Using the TNF game in 2 teasers to start the week
Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Ari -1.5 – The Panthers have a tailormade spot to go 3-0 facing one of the 3 worst teams in the league with a back up QB making his first career start. Tacking on Arizona here, I didn’t think they were great last week but against maybe the worst team in the league I don’t see them winning under a FG.
Game 2: Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Cle -1 – Second teaser with the Panthers using the Browns here against the Bears. Fields is making his first career start on the road against a very good defense in the Browns, I think in an ideal world the Bears would have waited a week to start Fields vs the Lions but injury has forced the early start. The Browns should be able to control this game with their run game and win easily.
Other Games I have already bet, write ups to come. Will be adding a couple more later.
Game 3: TB -1 @ LAR: Rams defense seemed like a unit that would regress from last year after losing Brandon Staley and through 2 games this year they have had trouble containing Andy Daulton and Carson Wentz. The Bucs offensively are going to be able to stay away from Jalen Ramsey and should have mismatches with Goodwin and Gronk.
Game 4: LAC +7 @ KC : The Chiefs have been one of the worst ATS teams over the last year covering just once in their last 12 games. KC coninues to get the majority of bets every week including this week and a result we get value on a team that should be able to score at will against the Chiefs struggling defense.
Game 5: Mia +4 @ LV: The Raiders are coming off of 2 high profile wins and playing a back up QB who I am not sure is a downgrade over the starter. I am not sure the Raiders are a better team than the Dolphins and this seems like a spot where Miami comes in and wins straight up.
Game 6: Phi +4 @ Dal: Last week the Eagles probably deserved to win against the 49ers and the Cowboys could have just as easily lost to the Chargers if not for a couple of interesting calls. Eagles defensive line has dominated and it looks like the Cowboys are trying to be more balanced on offense instead of just putting the game in Prescott’s hands.