After a hot start in Week 1, time to roll into Week 2 Picks
2018 Season: 44-34-1
Week 1: 4 – 1
Week 2 Picks
Game 1: Sea @ Pit -3.5
Bet% Sea 45% Pit 55%
This is really the classic week 2 game I love to bet, We have a one team, The Steelers, that came into the season with high expectations but got blown out on national TV. On the other side we have the Seahawks who won their opener at home despite being badly outplayed and now has to travel across country.
Last week there was not a team less deserving of a win than Seattle, The Bengals outgained Seattle 429 to 232, ran 21 more plays 70-49 and had 10 more First Downs 22-12. Seattle really had no business winning that game. Seattle is traditionally a much better team at home, last season they were 6-2 at home and 4-4 on the road but 3 of those 4 wins were against bottom dwellers Oak, Ari and Det. (more…)
2018 Season: 44-34-1
Thursday Night Football
Game 1: GB +3.5 @ Chi
Bet% GB 55% Chi 45%
Football is back!
Last year the Bears were #1 in takeaways and #1 in defensive DVOA. I am down on Chicago this year and think they are due for regression.
It’s Superbowl weekend and this is going to sound crazy because I know people who haven’t bet all year all have bets on today but I do not have an official play on the game. Before we get to that let’s enjoy this from last year first. #FlyEaglesFly
2018 Season : 46-34-1
Championship Weekend: 0-1
SUPERBOWL 53: NE – LAR – No Play
It seems crazy but I just never saw value on this game, I wanted the Rams +3 and it got to 3 -120 at a couple of places but has since moved down and the 2.5’s have moved to 2 at the sharper books. I also liked the under in first half but once it moved from 28 I had missed the value there as well and it never got back. The game has felt like a coin flip from the jump to me, I just never felt like there was an edge on either side I liked but at 3 it would have been a play on Rams.
I will look to live bet this game, if the Pats score first then I may jump on Rams plus points or if there is an ealry score and I can get the under 28 prorated that may also be a play but nothing for sure.
That being said here are some props I am playing, small amounts but a few plays I like
- 1st Quarter total under 10.5 (-125)
- Rob Gronkowski over 3.5 receptions (-200)
- Julian Eddleman under 82.5 receiving yards (-105)
- James Devlin Over 1.5 total yards (-140)
Only one play for Championship week, I lean with Saints but didn’t like enough to bet in NFC title. Playoff lines get so tight it really is tough to find value but I like the Chiefs and the great Andy Reid getting back to the Superbowl and hopefully finally winning. There were some great pieces written on Reid this week and I expect there will be more but here was my favorite. https://wapo.st/2Hq5zqr
2018 Season: 46 – 33 – 1
LW : 2 – 1
Game 1: NE @ KC -3
Bet% NE 45% KC%
I have only one play this week and it is on the Chiefs. When this line came out I had hoped that it might dip below the 3 as people would want to bet Bellichik and Brady over Big Red but the bet spread remained around 50% and I was pretty sure 3 would be best number.
At 3 we are saying that minus home field these teams are even on a neutral or that home field isn’t a big advantage either, I don’t believe either to be the case. Chiefs finished 1st in DVOA had a point differential of 144 and are 8-1 at home including the playoff win. I thought last week was the game that the Chiefs had a lot of pressure in, they were a big favorite but had lost the opening game 3 times in a row under Reid, Pat Mahomes was in his first career playoff game and the Colts came in hot. The Chiefs dominated start to finish and I think that will allow them to come into this game with a lot of confidence.
New England finished 8th I DVOA, they had a point differential of 11 but a couple of very interesting splits. New England was +110 in the division, feasting on the Jets, Bills and Dolphins again going 5-1. The other key split is on the road, the Patriots were 3-5 and -19 but if we take out the division games they went 1-4 and were -51. By all accounts the Patriots were a bad road team and especially outside the division where they lost to the Jaguars, Titans, Lions and Steelers, 4 teams that all missed the playoffs. (more…)
We got 2 wins last week with that late score by Seattle, playoff lines get very tight and this week had me going back and forth on almost all the games.
2018 Season: 44 – 32 – 1
Game 1: Ind @ KC – 4.5
Bet%: Ind 60% KC 40%
I am on an island on this game as I cannot find another person that likes the Chiefs minus the points here. 60% of all bets on the road team, despite the Chiefs being the story of the year but recency bias is big here. The Colts have been one of the most impressive teams in last few weeks of season and the largest margin of victory last week. Meanwhile the Chiefs did not finish the season blowing out teams like they did early in season and looked less explosive after cutting Kareem Hunt.
These are the best teams by weighted DVOA, Chiefs 1, Colts 2 so I certainly can see the case for Colts getting points but I think we are getting too much value on Chiefs to pass up at home.
Rough end to a good season in Week 16 going 0 – 4 but overall a very good year and there is a chance to keep adding here in playoffs starting with the always fun Wildcard Weekend
2018 Reg Season: 42-32-1
Game 1: 6 Pt teaser. Ind +8 @ Hou & Sea +8 @ Dal
Using a 6 pt teaser for these two road teams to get both over the TD. The Colts and Texans are playing their 3rd game of the year and the first 2 were both one score games including an OT game. I like Indy to win here, they finished 8th in DVOA but 4th in weighted while the Texans finished 11th but 13th in weighted so Colts definitely playing better to close out year.
The Texans have not been as explosive on offense as they were to start the year, they certainly miss Will Fuller and now are without his replacement Demaryius Thomas. Home field is really important in playoffs but if Texans win this game, I don’t see them running away.
In the Seattle Dallas game, I am selling on the Cowboys. By DVOA Dallas is the worst team in playoffs at 21 and 19 in weighted. I don’t love the Seattle offense and think the Dallas defense is the best group in the game but I trust that Russell Wilson can do enough to win this game. In the end I think you have 2 underwhelming teams but with Seattle you get the better coach and quarterback.
Late Add: Game 2 Sea @ Dal Over 43
Bet% Over 65% Under 35%
This game features two very run heavy offenses that have very good overall defensive numbers which is why this is a low total but \i think both teams will go to the pass and have success in this game. Both defenses ended the year with worse weighted defensive numbers than overall, Dallas is 9th overall in defensive DVOA but 11th in Weighted and Seattle was 14th overall but 19th in weighted. So both defenses are playing a little worse as season ends.
I think Seattle will be forced to go to pass early, Dallas is 5th vs the run but 16th vs the pass, and with Russell Wilson playing some of the best football of the season and this being the healthiest the Seattle receivers have been, it will then force Dallas to open up as well. I see a final score of 27-24 or something like that
Big Week 15 last week going 4-1, still not sure how the Panthers managed to cash with almost zero offense but it happened and we will take it after a mostly down December. Hoping to finish with a flourish here and a big week from Saint Nick.
Week 14: 4-1
Game 1: Hou @ Phi -2
Bet% Hou 37% Phi 63%
This is a game where I am going against most of the smart money which normally doesn’t go well. As an Eagles fan I can say that the team and fans both seem rejuvenated after last week’s win and I think the Linc will be rocking. Eagles will be getting key pieces back on defense including DT Timmy Jernigan who has missed most of the year. The combo of Jernigan helping the Eagles run D, and Houston being without Lamar Miller means this game will be on the Houston Pass offense. Texans are dead last in adjusted sack rate and the strength of the Eagles defense is their defensive line, expect Cox and Bennett to have big games. I think Eagles will have success in pass game on offense and win this game by a TD. (more…)
Our late season struggles continued with a 2-2 week and in Week 15 it feels like the card is smaller and tighter than anyone I can remember. The Struggle is real.
Week 14: 2-2
Game 1: Sea @ SF +4
Bet% Sea 73% SF 27%
Missed the best of this as it opened +6 but still going to jump on SF here. Seattle is now locked into a Wildcard spot with no chance at winning division on a 4 game winning streak but it is how they are winning that feels unsustainable to me. Last week Seattle won with just 60 yards passing, 2 weeks in the first matchup between these teams, SF outgained Seattle 452 to 331 but lost turnover battle 3-0.
This is also one of the biggest liabilities for books with 75% of money on Seattle while the number has dropped. (more…)
EaglesI have had back to back losing weeks after going all year on a tear. Some of it was due to just regular randomness, we were in good position in a number of games like Detroit before having everything go wrong.
Week 13: 2-4
Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Dal
Bet% Phi 41% Dal 59%
I am an Eagles fan and have not felt like the Eagles were the right side most of the year because the offense has been out of sync and not looked anything like last years version all year. Last week was the first time I thought the offense was on rhythm, Wentz missed a couple of easy throws that could have made the day even more impressive but I thought it was Doug Pederson’s best day of play calling and the offensive line looked as good as they have all year. This is the season for the Eagles and I like the fact that they have recovered after their debacle in New Orleans and worked around their injuries in secondary.
Dallas has become a very popular pick after their big win over the Saints but that seems like a weird game that we can kind of write off from the Saints side. I think Dallas is a very good defense but I don’t believe the passing game is a top half group and the Eagles should be able to have success vs the the Dallas line in the pass rush. This game is all about Zeke and the Dallas run game, but Eagles were in similar situation 2 weeks ago with Barkley and Giants and had good game plan to minimize the damage. (more…)
Had a tough week last week as we got plinko’d on a couple of finishes most notable Carolina but that’s the way it goes and overall this is still a very good year. Some good value on the board this week to try to turn it around.
Week 12: 1-3
Game 1: LAR @ Det +10.5
Bet% LAR 76% Det 24%
This game is probably not going to be a lot of fun to watch as a Lions backer but the Rams have not been a good team at covering these large numbers and 10.5 on the road is a huge number. Coming off their bye and that huge MNF game the week before, I can certainly see a slow start and little rustiness here.
The Lions at home have wins vs the Patriots, Panthers and Packers and have been able to keep games close for the most part. Lions will certainly is Keryon Johnson but I expect them to still use the run game a lot and try to get some big plays with Kenny Golliday.