Last Week:: 2W-3L
2018: 5W – 4L
Game 1: NYJ @ Cle -3
Bet% NYJ 37% Cle 63%
For the record, I hate Thursday Night Football. I hate watching TNF and I hate betting TNF because there seems to be much more randomness in these games but I am going to jump in here and take the Browns to win their first game and I think they will win by a TD or more.
We got off to a nice start in week 1 and traditionally I have done well in week 2 so here’s hoping for a big start.
Week 1: 3 Wins 1 Loss
Game 1: KC @ Pit -4
Bet% KC 62% Pit 38%
Game 2 KC Pit Over 52
Bet% Over 72 Under 28%
I was on KC last week and liked Cleveland but the line moved a little to much for me to bet so the week 1 results were not surprising to me. Andy Reid is traditionally great in any game where he has extra time to get ready and season openers certainly apply. Chiefs won easily but the Chargers dropped 2 sure TDs and were able to move the ball easily to the tune of 524 yards or 7.3 yards per play. We knew the Chiefs defense was a problem coming into the season and even though they won in week 1 it clearly is an issue. (more…)
As a long time Eagles fan, the 2018 season could not have ended any better. Last year was a down year for this blog and to be really honest I am not sure how much time I will have this season to dedicate to the blog as life has got much busier to me so things will look a little different here and the writeups will be much shorter. In the end if we get plays that win, that is all that matters. Speaking of plays that win, one more time…
2017 Reg Season 29-36
2017 Playoffs: 1-1
New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles
1) Eagles +3 1st Half
2) Eagles +5 Full Game
Our reg season from the abyss continued into playoffs as the Steelers followed up the worst coached reg season game of the year vs the Jags with the worst coached playoff game of the year and killed the 2nd half of our 2 team teaser. The Eagles not only covered the +9 we had but won straight up setting up a middling opportunity for me with the Jags which I didn’t take. Dumb.
2017 Reg Season 29-36
2017 Playoffs: 0-1
Game 1: Min @ Phi +3
Bet% Min 55% Phi 45%
These teams feel a lot closer than the spread indicates. Basically this has the Vikings as 6 point favorites on a neutral and I just don;t see it. The big discrepancy appears to be at QB with Case Keenum being rated far higher than Nick Foles. Keenum has definitely had a very productive season but he is also much more of a risk taker compared to the cautious Foles. The upside of those risky plays is being priced here but I don’t think the downside is. (more…)
2017 Reg Season – 29-36
Game 1: 6 Point Teaser Phi +9 and Pit -1
Bet% Atl 63% Phi 27%
Bet% Jax 39% Pit 61%
Eagles are the number 1 seed and 3 pt underdogs here with Nick Foles at QB. Falcons played a great game last week and lead start to finish but the conditions in Philly will be much more difficult. This will be the Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks while the Eagles will obviously be rested off a bye and only a quarter of play in week 17. I like the Eagles defense and run game to keep them in this game and think they have a legit shot to win straight up so teasing over the TD feels like the safest tag with the Steelers.
The Jags embarrassed the Steelers in reg season 30-9 in a game that Bortles completed a total of 8 passes for 95 yards and an Interception. Jacksonville scored 2 TDs on defense in that game leading to a game script that seems impossible to replicate but necessary if the Jags are going to win here. Can’t see lightning striking twice.
Week 15 had could have been, should have been a big comeback week, we went 3-2 but the 2 losses were in great position in the 4th Q before falling apart. Cleveland was up 2 TDs and still blew it. Not only that, they had the ball first in OT so it is almost impossible to lose by more than a FG in that situation. Yet they did.
Week 15: 3 Wins 2 Losses
It’s been a rough go here on this blog and for most sports books the last 5 weeks as favorites and heavy public plays have cashed at record levels. There are some things I would do differently but there is still time left to turn this season around and I like this week’s card a lot. Let’s Go.
Week 13: 1-3
Game 1: Sea @ Jax Under 20 1st Half
Bet% Over 51 Under 49 (Full game)
These are the 2 teams I have constantly bet for 1st half unders and this matchup seems perfect for a low scoring start. Seattle constantly starts slow in games especially on the road and in this game you have to thing the Jags front will get after the Seattle Offensive line. The Jags weakness on defense is the run and i expect that Seattle will try to start the game by seeing if they can have success there. On the flip side Seattle has been terrific vs the run since adding Sheldon Richardson but I can’t seethe Jags putting the game in Bortles hands until they have to. This feels like a 7-3 half. (more…)
Unfortunately the 2 week hiatus after the birth of my daughter did not change my luck in the NFL as we had a another losing week and the record is now 6 games under .500. I have read a lot about how November is the best month ever for favorites and that the public has destroyed the books the last 6 weeks. It can’t continue going this way and in the last 3 prime time games I think we have seen the pendulum swing back. Hopefully this is the week we start our comeback but yeah Week 13 was another mess.
Week 13: 1 Win 3 Losses
What Went Right
- Jimmy G debut: the only win we got was with the 49ers. This game wasn’t close, the 49ers out-gained the Bears 388 to 147 and the only thing that kept it close was the fact that SF went 0-5 in RZ and the Bears were 1-1.
After a 2 week hiatus I was able to spend some time looking at this weeks card and made some bets though there wont be much his week for write-ups. November was a historic month for favorites covering and as a result the dogs keep getting more value, at some point that’s going to matter.
2017: 24-28 (more…)