Week 6 Picks

Week 5 got off to a rough start in the morning but we swept the afternoon led by Russel Wilson and added another winning week to the tally. Lets keep it going for week 6.

russell wilson football GIF by Alaska Airlines

Week 5: 3 – 2

2018: 16-8

Game1: LAC pk @ Cle

Bet% LAC 60% Cle 40%

While Cleveland has improved this year and has already won 2 more games this year than all of last year this game at a pick is too much value on the Chargers. Chargers are 5th in DVOA to start the year while Cleveland is 25th. Cleveland is also coming off of 2 straight OT games including a big win vs divisional opponents Baltimore last week. This seems like a spot where the Browns get down early and struggle big after that, I like the Chargers by TD plus.

Game 2 : Car @ Was +1

Bet% Car 64% Was 36%

Last week Washington got blown out on MNF while the Panthers got a big save from the kicker who made a 63 yd FG to beat NYG at home. I think those 2 finishes get Us some value on Washington here who I believe should be favored. Before last week Washington was 12th in defensive DVOA, the Saints game dropped them to 24. At home, I expect that defense to get back to form and play well as I do with Alex Smith ehomolayed his worst game in 2 years.

Game 3: Bal @ Ten +2.5

Bet% Bal 43% Ten57%

The Ravens are playing in a situation that is almost an automatic fade me. they are playing their 3rd straight road game where they split their first 2. We also get the Titans in a good spot as they are coming off of their worst loss of the year LW in Buffalo after 3 straight wins vs Houston, the Jags and Eagles. Love the Titans here and think they win straight up

Game 4: TB @ Atl -3

Bet% TB 30% Atl 70%

This is basically the season for the Falcons and yes the defense is abysmal but it’s not hard to see a scenario where Jamie Winston doesn’t make a big mistake or too in this spot. The Falcons offense should have no trouble scoring against the Bucs defense ranked 32 in DVOA.

Week 5 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Wk 5

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Week 5 2018

Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.

pat mahomes ii GIF by NFL

Week 4: 3-1

2018: 13 – 6

Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43

Bet% 53 Over 47% Under

Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5th in DVOA and have been especially good at home.  I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet. (more…)

Week 3 – TNF

Week 3

Last Week:: 2W-3L

2018: 5W – 4L

Game 1: NYJ @ Cle -3

Bet% NYJ 37% Cle 63%

For the record, I hate Thursday Night Football. I hate watching TNF and I hate betting TNF because there seems to be much more randomness in these games but I am going to jump in here and take the Browns to win their first game and I think they will win by a TD or more.

baker mayfield dancing GIF by NFL

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Week 2 2018

We got off to a nice start in week 1 and traditionally I have done well in  week 2 so here’s hoping for a big start.

pittsburgh steelers shoot GIF by NFL

Week 1: 3 Wins 1 Loss 

Week 2

Game 1: KC @ Pit -4

Bet% KC 62% Pit 38%

Game 2 KC Pit Over 52

Bet% Over 72 Under 28%

I was on KC last week and liked Cleveland but the line moved a little to much for me to bet so the week 1 results were not surprising to me. Andy Reid is traditionally great in any game where he has extra time to get ready and season openers certainly apply. Chiefs won easily but the Chargers dropped 2 sure TDs and were able to move the ball easily to the tune of  524 yards or 7.3 yards per play. We knew the Chiefs defense was a problem coming into the season and even though they won in week 1 it clearly is an issue.  (more…)

Week 1: 2018

As a long time Eagles fan, the 2018 season could not have ended any better. Last year was a down year for this blog and to be really honest I am not sure how much time I will have this season to dedicate to the blog as life has got much busier to me so things will look a little different here and the writeups will be much shorter. In the end if we get plays that win, that is all that matters. Speaking of plays that win, one more time…

 

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Conference Final 2018

Our reg season from the abyss continued into playoffs as the Steelers followed up the worst coached reg season game of the year vs the Jags with the worst coached playoff game of the year and killed the 2nd half of our 2 team teaser. The Eagles not only covered the +9 we had but won straight up setting up a middling opportunity for me with the Jags which I didn’t take. Dumb.

2017 Reg Season 29-36

2017 Playoffs: 0-1

Conference Finals

Game 1: Min @ Phi +3

Bet% Min 55% Phi 45%

These teams feel a lot closer than the spread indicates. Basically this has the Vikings as 6 point favorites on a neutral and I just don;t see it. The big discrepancy appears to be at QB with Case Keenum being rated far higher than Nick Foles. Keenum has definitely had a very productive season but he is also much more of a risk taker compared to the cautious Foles. The upside of those risky plays is being priced here but I don’t think the downside is. (more…)

Divisional Rd Pick

2017 Reg Season – 29-36

Divisional Rd 

Game 1: 6 Point Teaser Phi +9 and Pit -1

Bet% Atl 63% Phi 27%

Bet% Jax 39% Pit 61%

Eagles are the number 1 seed and 3 pt underdogs here with Nick Foles at QB. Falcons played a great game last week and lead start to finish but the conditions in Philly will be much more difficult. This will be the Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks while the Eagles will obviously be rested off a bye and only a quarter of play in week 17. I like the Eagles defense and run game to keep them in this game and think they have a legit shot to win straight up so teasing over the TD feels like the safest tag with the Steelers.

The Jags embarrassed the Steelers in reg season 30-9 in a game that Bortles completed a total of 8 passes for 95 yards and an Interception. Jacksonville scored 2 TDs on defense in that game leading to a game script that seems impossible to replicate but necessary if the Jags are going to win here. Can’t see lightning striking twice.