Divisional Round Picks 2018

We got 2 wins last week with that late score by Seattle, playoff lines get very tight and this week had me going back and forth on almost all the games.

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LW: 2-0

2018 Season: 44 – 32 – 1

Game 1: Ind @ KC – 4.5

Bet%: Ind 60% KC 40%

I am on an island on this game as I cannot find another person that likes the Chiefs minus the points here. 60% of all bets on the road team, despite the Chiefs being the story of the year but recency bias is big here. The Colts have been one of the most impressive teams in last few weeks of season and the largest margin of victory last week. Meanwhile the Chiefs did not finish the season blowing out teams like they did early in season and looked less explosive after cutting Kareem Hunt.

These are the best teams by weighted DVOA, Chiefs 1, Colts 2 so I certainly can see the case for Colts getting points but I think we are getting too much value on Chiefs to pass up at home.

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Wildcard Week 2019

Rough end to a good season in Week 16 going 0 – 4 but overall a very good year and there is a chance to keep adding here in playoffs starting with the always fun Wildcard Weekend

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2018 Reg Season: 42-32-1

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser. Ind +8 @ Hou & Sea +8 @ Dal

Using a 6 pt teaser for these two road teams to get both over the TD. The Colts and Texans are playing their 3rd game of the year and the first 2 were both one score games including an OT game. I like Indy to win here, they finished 8th in DVOA but 4th in weighted while the Texans finished 11th but 13th in weighted so Colts definitely playing better to close out year.

The Texans have not been as explosive on offense as they were to start the year, they certainly miss Will Fuller and now are without his replacement Demaryius Thomas. Home field is really important in playoffs but if Texans win this game, I don’t see them running away.

In the Seattle Dallas game, I am selling on the Cowboys. By DVOA Dallas is the worst team in playoffs at 21 and 19 in weighted. I don’t love the Seattle offense and think the Dallas defense is the best group in the game but I trust that Russell Wilson can do enough to win this game. In the end I think you have 2 underwhelming teams but with Seattle you get the better coach and quarterback.

Late Add: Game 2 Sea @ Dal Over 43

Bet% Over 65% Under 35%

This game features two very run heavy offenses that have very good overall defensive numbers which is why this is a low total but \i think both teams will go to the pass and have success in this game. Both defenses ended the year with worse weighted defensive numbers than overall, Dallas is 9th overall in defensive DVOA but 11th in Weighted and Seattle was 14th overall but 19th in weighted. So both defenses are playing a little worse as season ends.

I think Seattle will be forced to go to pass early, Dallas is 5th vs the run but 16th vs the pass, and with Russell Wilson playing some of the best football of the season and this being the healthiest the Seattle receivers have been, it will then force Dallas to open up as well. I see a final score of 27-24 or something like that

 

 

 

Week 16 Picks

Big Week 15 last week going 4-1, still not sure how the Panthers managed to cash with almost zero offense but it happened and we will take it after a mostly down December. Hoping to finish with a flourish here and a big week from Saint Nick.

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Week 14: 4-1

2018: 42-28-1

Game 1: Hou @ Phi -2

Bet% Hou 37% Phi 63%

This is a game where I am going against most of the smart money which normally doesn’t go well. As an Eagles fan I can say that the team and fans both seem rejuvenated after last week’s win and I think the Linc will be rocking. Eagles will be getting key pieces back on defense including DT Timmy Jernigan who has missed most of the year. The combo of Jernigan helping the Eagles run D, and Houston being without Lamar Miller means this game will be on the Houston Pass offense. Texans are dead last in adjusted sack rate and the strength of the Eagles defense is their defensive line, expect Cox and Bennett to have big games. I think Eagles will have success in pass game on offense and win this game by a TD. (more…)

Week 15 Picks

Our late season struggles continued with a 2-2 week and in Week 15 it feels like the card is smaller and tighter than anyone I can remember. The Struggle is real.

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Week 14: 2-2

2018: 38-27-1

Game 1: Sea @ SF +4

Bet% Sea 73% SF 27%

Missed the best of this as it opened +6 but still going to jump on SF here. Seattle is now locked into a Wildcard spot with no chance at winning division on a 4 game winning streak but it is how they are winning that feels unsustainable to me. Last week Seattle won with just 60 yards passing,  2 weeks  in the first matchup between these teams, SF outgained Seattle 452 to 331 but lost turnover battle 3-0.

This is also one of the biggest liabilities for books with 75% of money on Seattle while the number has dropped. (more…)

Week 14 Picks

EaglesI have had back to back losing weeks after going all year on a tear. Some of it was due to just regular randomness, we were in good position in a number of games like Detroit before having everything go wrong.

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Week 13: 2-4

2018: 36-25-1

Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 41% Dal 59%

I am an Eagles fan and have not felt like the Eagles were the right side most of the year because the offense has been out of sync and not looked anything like last years version all year. Last week was the first time I thought the offense was on rhythm, Wentz missed a couple of easy throws that could have made the day even more impressive but I thought it was Doug Pederson’s best day of play calling and the offensive line looked as good as they have all year. This is the season for the Eagles and I like the fact that they have recovered after their debacle in New Orleans and worked around their injuries in secondary.

Dallas has become a very popular pick after their big win over the Saints but that seems like a weird game that we can kind of write off from the Saints side. I think Dallas is a very good defense but I don’t believe the passing game is a top half group and the Eagles should be able to have success vs the the Dallas line in the pass rush. This game is all about Zeke and the Dallas run game, but Eagles were in similar situation 2 weeks ago with Barkley and Giants and had good game plan to minimize the damage. (more…)

Week 13 Picks

Had a tough week last week as we got plinko’d on a couple of finishes most notable Carolina but that’s the way it goes and overall this is still a very good year. Some good value on the board this week to try to turn it around.

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Week 12: 1-3

2018: 34-21

Game 1: LAR @ Det +10.5

Bet% LAR 76% Det 24%

This game is probably not going to be a lot of fun to watch as a Lions backer but the Rams have not been a good team at covering these large numbers and 10.5 on the road is a huge number. Coming off their bye and that huge MNF game the week before, I can certainly see a slow start and little rustiness here.

The Lions at home have wins vs the Patriots, Panthers and Packers and have been able to keep games close for the most part. Lions will certainly is Keryon Johnson but I expect them to still use the run game a lot and try to get some big plays with Kenny Golliday.

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Week 12 Picks

Its Thanksgiving which means the betting card starts early this week. As is the case annually, with this being one of the biggest public betting days of the year, there is some value available on the dogs today to feast on.

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Week 11: 3-2

2018: 33-18

Game 1: Was +7.5 @ Dal

Bet% 51% 49%

This is really a play on the number. This game opened Dal +8.5 due mainly to Alex Smith being out and replaced by Colt McCoy and got bet down. Originally I thought I had missed the hook as this game went down to 7 but as of Thursday morning 7.5’s started showing up again.

I like Alex Smith but he has not been good this year, he is 24th in QBR and 25th in Passer rating ahead of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Case Keenum and the rookies, Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold. So how much of a drop will it be? I like McCoy in this spot, at home in Texas on national TV, if there is a game he wants to play well in, it is this one.

If there is something that worries you it is that Washington is 28th in DVOA vs the run so Dallas should be able to feed Zeke. Still, I think Washington stays in this game and has a shot to win late.

Game 2: NYG @ Phi Over 46

Bet% Over 69% Under 31%

I bet this game Friday morning when this line started to move and was able to get the 46. As of Sunday it is between 47-49 depending on the shop, I would still play at 47 but probably not at 49.

The Eagles are decimated with injuries on defense, they will be without starting corners Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones and their safety Maddux who had been one of the few bright spots on that back end the last month. Eagles will have 4 players playing significant snaps that 90% of Eagles fans could not name.

The Giants have been playing better football the last 3 weeks and this should be a big game for Barkley and OBJ.

Eagles have been awful on offense but I expect a bit of a bounce back after last week’s embarrassing game vs the Saints and the Giants are the one team the Eagles had a good offensive day against earlier in the season.

Game 3: Jax -3 @ Buf

Bet% Jax 61% Buf 39%

if we were to base this line just on the rosters this should be Jags -6 but considering how the Jags have played this season and the fact that they are on a 6 game losing streak it’s surprising this is even 3. If the Jags show up and play withe the type of effort they did last week vs Pittsburgh then they win this game by double digits if not then they could go 7 in a row.

I like that Josh Allen is playing because I think the Jags will be able to concentrate on the Bills run game and not worry about the pass. As disheartening as the loss last week was I do think the Jags defense will still show up in a game where they can basically play bully ball and get some sacks and turnovers. I think Jags win big here.

Game 4: Sea @ Car -3

Bet% Sea 46% Car 54%

The Panthers have lost 2 straight but I think because of that we are getting value here. Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-4 on the road, the last 2 games they dropped were both on the road and they should have had a chance at the the win last week in Detroit if not for a an unnecessary 2 point conversion attempt.

Where I really like this spot is the Panthers are at their best when they can run, they are 4th in Run DVOA and that run game is the base of everything especially the play action Norv Turner wants. Seattle is 10th in defensive DVOA but only 19th vs the run, this is definitely an advantage for the Panthers.

Seattle also likes to rely on the run on offense and are among the league leaders in attempts and percentage of plays, they are 6th in DVOA. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great this season but they are much better vs the run 12th then they are vs the pass 25th. Panthers are a much better team at home and for Seattle this is one of the longest trips of the year, like Panthers in this spot.

Week 11 Picks – TNF

A rare TNF game, for me, I hate everything about TNF, the games are generally terrible and the short turnaround leads to even more randomness. That being said, in my mind the one thing I have decided is if I do bet it’s home team or nothing and I like the home team here.

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Week 10: 3-2

2018: 30-16

Game 1: GB @ Sea -3

Bet% GB 46% Sea 54%

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Week 10 Picks

Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.

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Week 9: 4-0

2018: 27-14

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1

On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score. (more…)

Week 9 Picks

After a red hot start, we have stalled the last 2 weeks and maybe as a result of that this week’s card looks pretty tight as well. It actually looked like we had a winning week late with the 49ers up in Arizona but after doing nothing all game we saw Rosen not only come down and score a TD but also complete the 2pt conversion and hand us our first losing week in a month.

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Week 8: 2-3

2018: 23-14

Game 1: 6 Pt Teaser – KC -2.5 @ Cle & Pit +7 @ Bal

I know a lot of sharps are on Cle because of the coaching change and the idea that teams get a short term boost from coaching changes but I feel very confident in a matchup of Andy Reid vs Greg Williams. Yes Williams won a Superbowl but e also ad a stretch of 5 years where his teams were in the bottom 5 of Defensive DVOA. (more…)