Week 7 Picks 2021

This week feels like one of the toughest/ugliest slates of the year, there is not much I love here and this will probably be my smallest card of the year unless we see major movement Sunday morning.

Week 6: 3-3

2021: 21-16-1

Game 1: Phi +3 @ LV : I think I have a good beat on the Eagles defense, against elite competition they can’t hold up and can be exploited, we have seen that with Dallas, KC and TB, 3 of the 4 top offensive teams by DVOA. Against the rest they can be very good especially teams that are not strong in pass protection, the Eagles defensive line is top 5 in pass rush win rate. I think the Eagles Dline has a big game and on offense this could be a big Miles Sanders as Eagles coaches have talked this week about getting him more involved. This opened 3.5 and immediately got bet down and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops below the 3 by kickoff. I think Eagles win straight up and will be sprinkling on ML as well.

Game 2: KC -4 @ Ten : I remain higher on KC than the overall market and certainly more that the mainstream power rankings have them. Chiefs are #1 in EPA per pass, #2 in DVOA offense all while leading the league in turnovers, only rookie Zach Wilson with 9 has more and the Chiefs are the leaders in fumbles with 6. I expect some turnover regression, yes Mahomes has made some bad throws but he has also been unlucky with some like the one that hit Tyreke Hill in the hands last week. Fumbles are almost all random so we should expect some games with minimum turnover and if that happens this week I just don’t see how the Titans get any stops.

Game 3: Hou +18 @ Ari : I mean 18 points is a ton in the NFL, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Arizona to win by 3 TDs, it’s certainly possible as we basically have the top rated team here vs the worst. I just don’t think the Cardinals will have much incentive to play to the wire in this game, one, we already saw them play them at half speed vs the Jaguars cruise to an easy win and with a huge TNF game vs the Packers I can see them easing off some of the best players late in this game if it is in hand vs the Texans.

Game 4: Cin @ Bal -6: I know the Bengals have been a popular play this week, the Ravens have had some very close late finishes go there way in Detroit, KC and on MNF vs the Colts. I think last week is closer to who we should expect from Baltimore because they are finally getting healthy on defense. I think the Bengals are a little overrated here and we have a major coaching advantage for the Ravens so I am happy to take them in this spot

Week 6 2021 Picks

Very rough week on week 5, 1-2 with teasers and even the one that cashed needed a miracle finish but ‘Ain’t no pity party for yourself You gotta get up rise for your wealth’ Were on to week 6.

Week 5: 2-5-1

2021:18-13-1

TNF: Game 1: TB @ Phi +7: This line moved from 7.5 to 7 despite majority of bets on the Bucs. TB is coming off of a destruction of the Dolphins and you can see why they would be popular but they have massive injuries in the secondary and the Eagles are team that is as pass heavy as any in the league. I fully expect a high scoring game and the Bucs to be able to score into the 30’s but Hurts and the Eagles offense should be able to keep this within striking range and they have continued to be aggressive late in games even when down big so the backdoor cover is definitely in play.

Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ind : There are games that come on the board where logic for the bet is “Who is this team to be favored by this many points”. The Colts played a very good game on prime time last week, the best of their season, a game the ended up losing and they remain with just 1 win this year. Colts are 24th in DVOA how are they 10.5 points better than anyone? One thing I will say for Houston is that David Culley is an extremely conservative coach who I believe takes a lot of value in being close in games. Culley is not likely to make high leverage calls that could create big swings either way but rather play down the middle and stay in the mix.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaserKC -1 @ Was and LAC +8.5 @ Bal – KC is going to have a field day on offense in this game and Washington has enough injuries and the Heineke has enough turnover level play in him that I think KC could jump out big early in this game. If this comes back down to KC -6.5 even money I will be on that as well.

Chargers are playing great football, I like the Ravens to win a close one but we get Herbert at a TD plus and really the only game I like that goes through the 3 and 7.

Game 4: Min -2.5 @ CAR : This number has risen during the week from Min-1 to 2.5 not a huge move but it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets to the 3 on Sunday morning. The Vikings have been extremely unlucky this year with a few huge high leverage mistakes/ calls going against them and as a result they could easily be 4-1. By DVOA the Vikings are 13th overall, getting a healthy Dalvin Cook back and have a bye coming up so I think this is an all out type game. The Panthers meanwhile have a ton of injuries including Christian McCaffrey who early in the week looked like he might play but was instead put on IR. Panthers will also be without Shaq Thompson and the secondary is extremely thin.

Game 5: Ari @ Cle -3 (-120): This feels like the perfect spot to fade the 5-0 Cards. Kyler Murray is a little banged up and we have seen his TD production slip a little the last few weeks. The Browns will be missing Nick Chubb but with Kareem Hunt I don’t see that injury having much impact, the injury I do believe will matter is Arizona losing their starting C Rodney Hudson.

Game 6: KC -6 @ Wsh: Late add, this line dropped Sunday morning, to me this just feels like the low point for the Chiefs and I don’t give any home field advantage to Washington so this is a play for me at this price

Week 5 Picks

Last week was one of those dream weeks that help make your season. If Tom Brady had not forgot how to complete a pass for 3 quarters we could have gone 7-0 but still had 3 dogs of FG or more win straight up and overall just a fantastic week. We Good over here

Week 4: 6-1

2021: 16-8

Game 1: 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Sea +8 & Vikings -2

I’m have already used the Vikings in 2 teasers and may use them again. Minnesota is 1-3, you can make the case they should be at very least 2-2 but probably could be 3-1. Still they are 1-3 and absolutely needs this game and are going to have one of the biggest advantages in Oline/Dline matches.

Seattle at home is an underdog and a perfect teaser candidate, I think there is a good shot they can win is a huge advanatge to be home on TNF this game but either way this game is likely to be a 1 score game.

Game 2 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Dal -2 & Vikings -2

Using the Vikings again in this one with the Cowboys. Dallas has one of the hottest offenses in the league, they are at home and get the Giants coming off of a dramatic comeback win. It’s early days but Dallas is #2 in DVOA overall this year and I don’t see them tripping up against the Giants.

Game 3: Phi @ Car Over 44.5

I think this total is dependent on what you think of the Panthers defense because I don;t think there is much question that the Eagles defense is a bottom 10 group and Carolina is going to score in this game. In DVOA the Panthers are 4th in defense but early on those rankings do not really account for level of competition and in the first 3 weeks Carolina played the Jets, Texans and a Saints offense that hasn’t hit 200 yards passing. I think Panthers probably have a middle of the pack Defense, Dallas had no problems scoring last week and I think Philly will be able to move the ball as well. I think this game gets into the 50’s pretty easily.

Game 4: Ten-4 @ Jax

The Urban Meyer mess can’t help here but the starting point is from he Jags being one of the worst 3 teams in the league, currently 31 by DVOA. Last week the Titans lost to the Jets in OT but despite missing both their top WRs they still had 430 yards of offense and ran 93 plays. AJ Brown was full particpant on Thursday, with Brown and Henry, Titans should have more than enough to beat this Jags team that has had a lot to deal with this week in terms of distractions.

Game 5: SF +5.5 @ Ari:

This is a game that has a lot of sharp money that has come in on it and it is basically because we have Arizona at the absolute peak of their value, preseason this game was a pick, last week this game was Arizona -2.5 and now it opened 6 after the Cards won again and the 49ers lost at home to Seattle. I don’t downgrade SF with Lance at QB in fact I think the likelihood of a ML win goes up as does the chance they get blown out.

Game 6: GB @ Cin -3

This line has been consistently dropping all week and may end below the 3. The Packers will be without their best and maybe most important defensive player Jaire Alexander and the Bengals can definitely take advantage. The sharp money is clearly playing Bengals in this spot and I think based on the injuries I agree.

Game 7: 2 team 6pt teaser: Dal -1.5 & Bal -1.5

We lost the first teaser with Seattle losing by 9 on TNF so using Dallas again with the Ravens on MNF.

Game 8: Buf @ KC -2.5

Adding the KC game, I am not sure when we will get Patrick Mahomes at home under a FG fav again. This is an overreaction to 2 losses by KC where they had late turnovers that cost them games. KC offense is performing at all time level, Bills have been very good on defense but don’t think it matters much here if the offense has to settle for FGs.

Week 4 Picks 2021

We were Back in Business Week 3 after a down week 2 and started off week 3 with a couple of bets n the openers where the line moves have agreed with the bets.

LW: 4-2

2021: 10-7

Game 1: KC -5.5 @ Phi – I bet this game before MNF. Even though I had the Eagles in that game this line seemed much more likely to go to 7 than 4 and I was ok holding 5.5 even if Philly won. We get the Chiefs off of 2 straight losses where late mistakes cost them and through 3 weeks they have played well enough to be 3-0 despite playing very good competition. The Eagles have lost 3 starters on the offensive line and defensively I don’t see how they slow KC down without a bunch of turnover help. This line has moveed to 7 which would probably still be aplay for me but I obviously feel better about the number I got.

Game 2 TB -5.5 @ NE : What scares me about this game is that it is maybe the most lopsided bet game in a long time with 85-88% of bets on TB depending on where you look and that is never a good thing especially for a primetime game. The line has remained under a TD so despite the number of bets there seems to be some strong money on NE. For me, this feels like a game that if TB gets up early, I don’t see how NE catches them, last week The Rams and previously the Cowboys were able to take advantage of the TB issues in the secondary with 3 and 4 wide sets, that doesnt seem like someghing the Pats and their rookie QB are going to excel at.

Game 3: Bal +1 @ Den: The final of the 3 opening numbers I bet was Ravens as a small dog against the Broncos. Denver is 3-0 but as has been mentioned all week the 3 teams they have beat are 0-10. Denver has performed exactly how you would want vs weaker competition but there is still a question of how they will look against a playoff team. I think the injuries for Denver at WR and Chubb on defense make them a tier below a team like the Ravens.

Game 4: NYG +7.5 @ NO: I think this is a great spot for the Giants, the Saints have been great defensively but I don’t know how you trust an offense this bad with more than a TD and I do think Giants are live in this game.

Game 5: Sea +3(-120) @ SF – I still have Seattle as the better team over SF despite 2 straight losses and I don’t think SF has much of a home field so at 3 this is definitely a play. SF was less than impressive in Philly and even in the opener against Detroit and since have had a number of key injuries. Coming off of 2 losses that they led both by 2 scores I can see Seattle coming through and holding on to a straight up win here and will have a bet on the ML as well.

Game 6: Cle -1 @ Min: Kirk Cousins is off to a great start but historically has struggled vs pressure and the Browns are one of the best front 4’s in the NFL add in that Kevin Stefanski coached in Minnesota and knows Cousins as well as anyone and I like the Browns in this spot.

Game 7: Late Add Ari+4 @ LAR

This seems to be one of the games that lots of sharp money is coming in on, you get the Rams coming off of their Game of the Year win last vs TB and even though this is a division game it is a let down spot. Arizona had their let down spot last week and played a terrible half vs the Jags before coming back and this seems like a nice spot to get more than a FG.

Week 3 2021 Picks

Off a bad week last week with lots of missed opportunities but it’s a long season and the MNF game helped minimize the damage.

Week 2: 2-4

2021: 6-5

Using the TNF game in 2 teasers to start the week

Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Ari -1.5 – The Panthers have a tailormade spot to go 3-0 facing one of the 3 worst teams in the league with a back up QB making his first career start. Tacking on Arizona here, I didn’t think they were great last week but against maybe the worst team in the league I don’t see them winning under a FG.

Game 2: Game 1: 2 team 6 Pt teaser: Car -2 & Cle -1 – Second teaser with the Panthers using the Browns here against the Bears. Fields is making his first career start on the road against a very good defense in the Browns, I think in an ideal world the Bears would have waited a week to start Fields vs the Lions but injury has forced the early start. The Browns should be able to control this game with their run game and win easily.

Other Games I have already bet, write ups to come. Will be adding a couple more later.

Game 3: TB -1 @ LAR: Rams defense seemed like a unit that would regress from last year after losing Brandon Staley and through 2 games this year they have had trouble containing Andy Daulton and Carson Wentz. The Bucs offensively are going to be able to stay away from Jalen Ramsey and should have mismatches with Goodwin and Gronk.

Game 4: LAC +7 @ KC : The Chiefs have been one of the worst ATS teams over the last year covering just once in their last 12 games. KC coninues to get the majority of bets every week including this week and a result we get value on a team that should be able to score at will against the Chiefs struggling defense.

Game 5: Mia +4 @ LV: The Raiders are coming off of 2 high profile wins and playing a back up QB who I am not sure is a downgrade over the starter. I am not sure the Raiders are a better team than the Dolphins and this seems like a spot where Miami comes in and wins straight up.

Game 6: Phi +4 @ Dal: Last week the Eagles probably deserved to win against the 49ers and the Cowboys could have just as easily lost to the Chargers if not for a couple of interesting calls. Eagles defensive line has dominated and it looks like the Cowboys are trying to be more balanced on offense instead of just putting the game in Prescott’s hands.

Week 2 2021 Picks

A Toast to a great start to the 2021 season in Week 1

Week 1: 4 – 1

2021 : 4-1

Week 2 Picks

Game 1: Buf @ Mia +3.5

Josh Allen has been great vs Miami so this could certainly be a big comeback spot for Buffalo but 3.5 points at home just feels like too much value to pass on. Miami’s strength on defense is their secondary we know Buffalo uses 4 and 5 wide more than any other team, if anyone can match up it’s Miami.

Game 2: SF @ Phi Over 49

I missed the Eagles +3.5 but I like the total just as much. The Eagles alst week had one of the best performances on offense in terms effciency and in the first half were one of the highest pace teams of the week while the game was in question. SF comes in with injuries all over their secondary and the Eages seem to have the weapons to take advantage. SF should also have a big game on offense, Eagles are weak in the middle of their defense at LB and Safety with Rodney Mcleod out, if anyone can take advantage of that, it’s Kyle Shanahan.

Game 3: NO @ Car Under 45

Last week the Saints defense dointed the Pacers offense and now play a Panthers team that couldn’t finish drives against the Jets. Meanwhile Winston did throw 5 TDs but had only 148 passing yards, which is more likely to continue?

Game 4: Den @ Jax +6

This is probably the game that had the largest movement based on week 1’s results, The Jags go from 3.5 point favs on the road to 6 pt dogs while the Broncos went from 2 point dogs to 6 point favorites. It maybe that the Jags are the worst team in the league but they are not going to get blown out every week and the Broncos offense is not one that should be running away in any game.

Game 5: Dal @ LAC -3

This is my fav bet on the week, money keeps coming in on the Cowboys despite so many of their key players out, along with suspended RT La’el Collins, Cowboys will be without their best defensive player Demarcus Lawrence, starting safeties Kazee and Wilson plus Michael Gallup. Love this spot for the Chargers.

Game 6: Det @ GB -11.5

Liked this one at open, Detroit dis all their damage last week in final 2 minutes of a game they were down 3 TDs, recovery an onside kick and basically got every break possible for that final part of game. Packers are coming off of Aaron Rodgers worst game in years and if there was ever a golden opportunity to show out and show off, Monday night at home against the Lions is it.

Week 1 2021 Picks

Week 1 of every season is a mix of excitement and pressure especially coming off of a so so year last year.

Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Atl

Eagles have chance to have top 5 offensive and defensive lines, both units start season healthy and I think give Eagles legit shot to win this game straight up.

Game 2: Phi @ Atl Over 48.5

Both offenses have advantages in this game, expect Eagles to give Hurts every opportunity in run option game, Eagles have upgraded speed at skill positions. Falcons pass game should have mismatches vs Eagles secondary, Eagles injuries at safety will make covering Pitts impossible.

Game 3: Sea -2.5 @ Ind

This is really a bet against the tumultuous summer the Colts have had this year. As an Eagles fan I have seen Carson Wentz at his best and worst, it is hard to imagine we are going to see the best after a summer where he was traded, got hurt an missed almost all of camp, came back and missed time for Covid, lost TY Hilton for the season and a number of key Colts missed time for Covid. Seattle on the other hand is bringing back most of the key components of their offense and look to have solidified their offensive line for the first time in a decade.

Game 4: Jax @ Hou +3.5

Honestly this is just a bet that the Jags should not be favored by 3.5 points over any team on the road with a rookie head coach and rookie QB. Last year the Jags won their opener and lost the next 15, I could see that for the Texans this year.

Game 5: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: SF -2.5 @ Det & Chi @ LAR -2

The squarest teaser on the board, everyone will be teasing 49ers and Rams but they both follow the Stanford Wong rule of crossing the 7 and 3 giving us maximum value on the teaser.

Games not bet yet but waiting for number.

Mia @ NE

I really like the Pats but his game went from -2.5 to 3 and now is at 3.5. If this gets back down to to -3 before kickoff, I will take the Patriots,

Cle @ KC

Like the Browns here if I can get 6 again, currently the number is at 5.5, hoping money comes in on KC on Sunday and we can get 6 or 6.5 for the Browns.

Superbowl

LW: 0-2

2020: 60 -57

Superbowl: KC Future +225

The only bet I have on the Superbowl is the one I made prior to the games in Chmpionship week which is KC +225. I have not hedged it by taking the Bucs because I like the Chiefs to win this game. Now there may be some opportunities in game, if the Chiefs jump out ahead early I would look at taking the Bucs at some point and try to get a nice middle opportunity. If the Bucs jump out early then my play in game bet will probably be on the Over.

The reason I like the Chiefs in this game is I think there is a big advantage with the coaching staffs. Andy Reid has a chance to cement himself as one of the all time coaches with back to back titles and I like how aggressive he has been in the playoffs and really all year. The coach I think that doesn’t get enough discussion in this game is Steve Spagnola the Chiefs DC. Spags may not have been a very good head coach but what he has shown is that he is an elite game planner in the playoffs. The two Giant Superbowls were one by the performance of Spags defense and last year his KC team played their best game in the Superbowl. I was extremely impressed by the performance of the Chiefs Defense last week vs the Bills and I think we will see a prepared defense that will give Brady problems.

Patrick Mahomes vs Tom Brady is a historic meeting and one that will look more so at the end of Mahomes career but he had not been at his best the last month and the fact he was banged up had a lo to do with it. A lot is being made out of the loss of Eric Fisher for the Chiefs but in a one game setting I think they can game plan around it. The Eagles 3 years ago played with a back up LT Halopati Vaitai in place of all pro Jason Peters and despite that downgrade, Nick Foles passed for 373 yards.

If I didn’t have a Chiefs future I would probably take them -3 but luckily I can sit back and just hope they win and get +225.

Conference Championship 2021

LW: 0-2

2020- 60-55-1

Game 1: TB @ GB -0.5 (+114) 1st Quarter

I don’t have any bets on the full game sides or totals this week but still able to get a couple of bets in. The first is taking the Packers in the first quarter, I expect the Bucs to start slow in this game, one because that has been their history this season and two, because I think the cold will be something that bothers them to start the game. Tampa was shut out in the first quarter last week in New Orleans, and were down after 1 in 6 of their last 8 games and were shut out in Q1 in 5 of those games.

The Packers are team that does very well with their scripted plays and the fact that they struggled so much with this defense in their first meeting I think means they come out looking to be aggressive to start this game.

Game 2: TB @ GB Under 26 1st half.

This is taking on the same logic as the bet above that TB starts this game slow and because of it we have a low scoring 1st half. I mentioned above that TB has been a slow starter against good teams, I can see them trying to use Fournette a lot early in this game, it will be an adjustment for Brady to not have Brown who is one of his favorite targets on 3rd downs. The Packers too could come out with a run heavy offense in this game especially if they score first. I can see this game opening up in the second half especially if it plays out the way I am envisioning with GB scoring early and taking a lead into half, if that happens we have seen Brady have very big second half’s when needed.

Game 3: KC to win Superbowl (+225)

With Mahomes playing I was tempted to take the Chiefs ML but then I thought I am better off just taking them to win the SB at these odds as if they do win straight up this week I think that regardless of who win in NFC, Chiefs will be at least a small fav. Against the Packers I think that line will be 2.5-3 so something like -140- -155. There may be some hedging opportunities in SB especially of TB wins but either way I am happy to have a ticket on the Chiefs to win it all

Divisional Round 2021

LW: 2-2

2020- 59-53-1

I found this week’s card very difficult to find something I like which of course makes sense when we get to this part of the season where the card is just 4 games and lines are very sharp. As a result, I am going to play something a little different for my first bet.

Game 1: 2 Team ML Parlay – LAR @ GB (ML) and TB @ NO (ML) +130

Game 1 of the parlay is the Packers ML, this line opened at 7 and has been bet down so clearly there is some sharp money that likes LA. Last week I fully expected to be on the Rams in this game if they beat Seattle but the injuries to Aaron Donald and Goff and the weather in Green Bay have me off that side. The Rams defense has been terrific and is probably as tough a matchup as the Packers will face, Jalen Ramsey vs Devante Adams is the premiere matchup of the week and then Aaron Donald vs Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Donald got hurt in the 2nd half last week but is expected to be near 100%. What I wonder is how that defense holds up in the snow and cold in GB, in week 16 the Packers played the Titans in a snowy, cold game and while nobody thinks the Titans defense is any good the Packers seemed to have a major advantage when on offense.

On the flip side Jared Goff has to play in his first winter game with a thumb 3 weeks out of surgery and things did not look great for him most of the game last week. I see the case for the Rams defense to play tough and get the Packers offense to play under their regular level but I don’t see how their offense keeps up.

Game 2 is the Saints ML. I like the Saints to win this game because I think you can make the case that this is the healthiest they have been all year, they finished the year #1 in DVOA despite missing Drew Brees for 3 weeks and Michael Thomas for most of the season, Covid impacted a number of their guys including Kamara.

Tampa finished the season #2 in DVOA and had a really interesting season where the season started with the defense playing great and the offense starting slow and ended with the offense playing great and the defense playing really poorly. Last week Taylor Heineke started for Washington and passed for 300 yards in his WFT debut, the Falcons scored 27 in both their games in December against the Bucs. The Saints won the first two matchups but in this game both teams feel very different and I don’t think the “it’s really hard to win 3 straight times” fits here because this is a very different Saints team. The line feels right at 3 but I think the Saints win and we’ll see if this parlay pays off because I haven’t made this type of bet this year.

Game 2: Cle @ KC -9

I think this bet comes down to what you think of the Chiefs 2nd half of the season. KC did not cover a game in November or December, straight up they were the typical Chiefs outside of when the platyed the Raiders but they did not look dominant as last years team. The defense finished 22 in DVOA but generally it seems to have played at a similar level to last year, the difference is on offense. The question then is, have the Chiefs taken a step back on offense that they can’t get back or can they turn it on in the playoffs? For me I believe the Chiefs had little to play for in the regular season, when you have the best QB and the best coach it is Superbowl or bust so the fact that the team doesn’t go out looking to dominate week in week out isn’t surprising. We get the Chiefs now fully rested, Andy Reid off a bye is nearly mythical at this point and the matchup is a great one for the Chiefs offense.

In Cleveland the Chiefs get the perfect team to make a statement against, the Browns finished 25th in DVOA on defense, 25th vs the pass and that is aided by a 3 week stretch where the weather (wind) made passing nearly impossible. Last week the Browns got he perfect game script, literally everything went right and they found themselves up 2 TDs in a blink and up 48 in a few more. I think Cleveland is a league average type team that is coming off of the biggest win in decades and while this is a lot of points to give, this is also the highest total of the week.