Last week could have been so much bigger as we went 5-1 on sides but the Teasers were a killer (0-3). Still, stacking winning weeks together again finally and I know a big week is coming.
Week 10: 5-4
Game 1: Ind +7.5 @ Buf : Buffalo is the #1 defense by DVOA but I don’t think we have seen them challenged by a great run offense besides the Titans who had a field day. This is the healthiest the COlts have been on the offensive line and I think they stay close in this game.
Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ten: Titans are the hottest team in the league winning 6 in a row and the last 5 were all high profile games against the likes of the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, Colts and Saints. This definitely feels like a game the Titans take a deep breath and with their injuries at RB and WR I think it is a big task for them to cover a number this big.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: GB @ Min +8 and Ari @ Sea +8.5
Back to the Wong Teaser taking both the Vikings and Seahawks through the 3 and 7. The Vikings and Packers are basically evenly ranked in most effeciancy rankings despite the Packers having 4 more wins, in fact in DVOA Vikings are 9th while the 8 win Packers are 12th.
Seattle is coming off the worst performance of Russell Wilson’s career, first game back from injury has been a big deal for QBs this year and in this game we are likely to get that situation with Kyler Murray. If Murray ends up missing then this is a really great bet as we are likely to get 3-4 more points of value.
Game 4- Ari – Sea Under 24 First Half
Game 5- Ari- Sea Under 48
Taking the under on the Seattle- Arizona game under both for first half and full game. If Kyler Murray plays this will be his first game back from injury in 3 weeks, Hopkins is also expected to miss this game and I would expect them to get off to a slow start. While I like Seattle to win this game between Russ still getting back to form and the Seahawks likely to try to run a lot in his game I expect it to stay in the low 40’s. If Murray ends up missing this total will probably drop 3-4 points by gametime.