Week 12 Picks

Its Thanksgiving which means the betting card starts early this week. As is the case annually, with this being one of the biggest public betting days of the year, there is some value available on the dogs today to feast on.

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Week 11: 3-2

2018: 33-18

Game 1: Was +7.5 @ Dal

Bet% 51% 49%

This is really a play on the number. This game opened Dal +8.5 due mainly to Alex Smith being out and replaced by Colt McCoy and got bet down. Originally I thought I had missed the hook as this game went down to 7 but as of Thursday morning 7.5’s started showing up again.

I like Alex Smith but he has not been good this year, he is 24th in QBR and 25th in Passer rating ahead of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Case Keenum and the rookies, Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold. So how much of a drop will it be? I like McCoy in this spot, at home in Texas on national TV, if there is a game he wants to play well in, it is this one.

If there is something that worries you it is that Washington is 28th in DVOA vs the run so Dallas should be able to feed Zeke. Still, I think Washington stays in this game and has a shot to win late.

Game 2: NYG @ Phi Over 46

Bet% Over 69% Under 31%

I bet this game Friday morning when this line started to move and was able to get the 46. As of Sunday it is between 47-49 depending on the shop, I would still play at 47 but probably not at 49.

The Eagles are decimated with injuries on defense, they will be without starting corners Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones and their safety Maddux who had been one of the few bright spots on that back end the last month. Eagles will have 4 players playing significant snaps that 90% of Eagles fans could not name.

The Giants have been playing better football the last 3 weeks and this should be a big game for Barkley and OBJ.

Eagles have been awful on offense but I expect a bit of a bounce back after last week’s embarrassing game vs the Saints and the Giants are the one team the Eagles had a good offensive day against earlier in the season.

Game 3: Jax -3 @ Buf

Bet% Jax 61% Buf 39%

if we were to base this line just on the rosters this should be Jags -6 but considering how the Jags have played this season and the fact that they are on a 6 game losing streak it’s surprising this is even 3. If the Jags show up and play withe the type of effort they did last week vs Pittsburgh then they win this game by double digits if not then they could go 7 in a row.

I like that Josh Allen is playing because I think the Jags will be able to concentrate on the Bills run game and not worry about the pass. As disheartening as the loss last week was I do think the Jags defense will still show up in a game where they can basically play bully ball and get some sacks and turnovers. I think Jags win big here.

Game 4: Sea @ Car -3

Bet% Sea 46% Car 54%

The Panthers have lost 2 straight but I think because of that we are getting value here. Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-4 on the road, the last 2 games they dropped were both on the road and they should have had a chance at the the win last week in Detroit if not for a an unnecessary 2 point conversion attempt.

Where I really like this spot is the Panthers are at their best when they can run, they are 4th in Run DVOA and that run game is the base of everything especially the play action Norv Turner wants. Seattle is 10th in defensive DVOA but only 19th vs the run, this is definitely an advantage for the Panthers.

Seattle also likes to rely on the run on offense and are among the league leaders in attempts and percentage of plays, they are 6th in DVOA. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great this season but they are much better vs the run 12th then they are vs the pass 25th. Panthers are a much better team at home and for Seattle this is one of the longest trips of the year, like Panthers in this spot.


Week 11 Picks – TNF

A rare TNF game, for me, I hate everything about TNF, the games are generally terrible and the short turnaround leads to even more randomness. That being said, in my mind the one thing I have decided is if I do bet it’s home team or nothing and I like the home team here.

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Week 10: 3-2

2018: 30-16

Game 1: GB @ Sea -3

Bet% GB 46% Sea 54%


Week 10 Picks

Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.

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Week 9: 4-0

2018: 27-14

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1

On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score. (more…)

Week 9 Picks

After a red hot start, we have stalled the last 2 weeks and maybe as a result of that this week’s card looks pretty tight as well. It actually looked like we had a winning week late with the 49ers up in Arizona but after doing nothing all game we saw Rosen not only come down and score a TD but also complete the 2pt conversion and hand us our first losing week in a month.

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Week 8: 2-3

2018: 23-14

Game 1: 6 Pt Teaser – KC -2.5 @ Cle & Pit +7 @ Bal

I know a lot of sharps are on Cle because of the coaching change and the idea that teams get a short term boost from coaching changes but I feel very confident in a matchup of Andy Reid vs Greg Williams. Yes Williams won a Superbowl but e also ad a stretch of 5 years where his teams were in the bottom 5 of Defensive DVOA. (more…)

Week 8 Picks

Week 7 I felt lucky to get away 2-2 after starting the morning 0-2 and then needing a missed FG in the Dallas – Washington game. We have 5 games on the card this week including a couple of hold your nose plays.


Week 7: 2-2

2018: 21- 11

Game 1: 2 team Teaser: Cle @ Pit -2.5 & Den @ KC-2.5

This play is obviously as square as it gets but I am trying to cash in on KC and ride this wave and using them in a teaser feels like the safest way, we did it last week and didn’t have to sweat it for even 5 seconds.  This is a game that Broncos will need to keep up in and that is a lot to ask of Case Keenum who is 28th in Total QBR, Broncos only road win this year was last week in Arizona, this is a bit of a step up.

The Browns to me are one of the 2 or 3 worst coached teams in the league, they are coming off of an OT loss on the road last week in Tampa, a game they should have won about 3 times. I don’t see them keeping this with a TD. (more…)

Week 6 Picks

Week 5 got off to a rough start in the morning but we swept the afternoon led by Russel Wilson and added another winning week to the tally. Lets keep it going for week 6.

russell wilson football GIF by Alaska Airlines

Week 5: 3 – 2

2018: 16-8

Game1: LAC pk @ Cle

Bet% LAC 60% Cle 40%

While Cleveland has improved this year and has already won 2 more games this year than all of last year this game at a pick is too much value on the Chargers. Chargers are 5th in DVOA to start the year while Cleveland is 25th. Cleveland is also coming off of 2 straight OT games including a big win vs divisional opponents Baltimore last week. This seems like a spot where the Browns get down early and struggle big after that, I like the Chargers by TD plus.

Game 2 : Car @ Was +1

Bet% Car 64% Was 36%

Last week Washington got blown out on MNF while the Panthers got a big save from the kicker who made a 63 yd FG to beat NYG at home. I think those 2 finishes get Us some value on Washington here who I believe should be favored. Before last week Washington was 12th in defensive DVOA, the Saints game dropped them to 24. At home, I expect that defense to get back to form and play well as I do with Alex Smith ehomolayed his worst game in 2 years.

Game 3: Bal @ Ten +2.5

Bet% Bal 43% Ten57%

The Ravens are playing in a situation that is almost an automatic fade me. they are playing their 3rd straight road game where they split their first 2. We also get the Titans in a good spot as they are coming off of their worst loss of the year LW in Buffalo after 3 straight wins vs Houston, the Jags and Eagles. Love the Titans here and think they win straight up

Game 4: TB @ Atl -3

Bet% TB 30% Atl 70%

This is basically the season for the Falcons and yes the defense is abysmal but it’s not hard to see a scenario where Jamie Winston doesn’t make a big mistake or too in this spot. The Falcons offense should have no trouble scoring against the Bucs defense ranked 32 in DVOA.

Week 5 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Wk 5

Week 5 2018

Week 4 the winning continued and through the 1st Q we are off to a hot start but lot’s of season left.

pat mahomes ii GIF by NFL

Week 4: 3-1

2018: 13 – 6

Game 1: Den @ NYJ Un 43

Bet% 53 Over 47% Under

Jets defense is underrated so far this season, they are 5th in DVOA and have been especially good at home.  I think with Broncos on short week coming off of emotional MNF loss we see a sluggish start from the Broncos. Jets offense has been a mess since opening week, I thought of taking Jets in this game but think under is the better bet. (more…)