Last week was our worst week of the year and the overall record took a big hit as a result. It was a big week for favorites last week so hopefully we see that pendulum swing back this week. Either way, the NFL is a week to week league for the teams and we have to look at the same way when betting. Gotta keep it moving.
Game 1: Ind @ Hou -6.5
Bet% Ind 54% Hou 46%
This game was at Houston -13 before the Desean Watson injury and as of Tuesday 68% of bets were on the Texans. Watson was not just the hottest QB in the league but also one of the most popular so not surprising to see so many bettors jump off the Texans here and on to the Colts. Maybe Watson is worth a TD more than Savage in some games but against one of the worst defenses in the league I think the adjustment is too much and we are getting value here. (more…)
Week 8 was a disaster. After middling results in October the final week was one where everything that could go wrong did. Weeks like this are going to happen, they happen every year, you are going to have weeks where the breaks go your way and others where they don’t. You know that going in but it doesn’t make it any easier.
Week 8: 1 Win 5 Losses
What Went Right
- Colts-Bengals: The only win of the week was the over 41.5 here. The game didn’t go the way I expected as the Bengals had much more trouble scoring than I thought they would but the Colts made up for it. The takeaway is anytime we can get a bottom 5 defense and total around 40 things don’t have to go perfect to get the over.
What Went Wrong
- The Bad Luck Game: We lost the Chargers Pats by 0.5 and this was the one where we got hit with horrible luck. there was a safety the Chargers took on a punt, literally a play I have never seen before. There was also a play at 15-7 where LA was in FG range @ NE 29, Rivers rolled out, patted the ball which he has probably done 5000 times in his career but this time it caused him to fumble, Chargers recovered after the play lost 20 yards and then punted. Seriously.
- Weather: The Panthers – Bucs game was one of the lowest scoring games of the week which certainly not the way I saw this game going. The game featured major winds which hampered the passing games and Winston also took a hit that aggravated his shoulder injury.
- Desaun Watson: Seattle won but didn’t cover here, but regardless I was way off on how I though that defense would handle the rookie QB. He was spectacular and played one of the best games by an opposing QB in Seattle in the last 4 or 5 years. Couldn’t have been more wrong on that game.
- Washington Injuries: Read the Injury Reports! Read the Injury Reports! The Washington -Cowboys game is the one I am most upset at myself for betting and I think the most easily avoidable loss. I talk a lot about offensive line injuries and their importance and also the importance of cluster injuries. When there are cluster injuries on the offensive line? That should at the very least be a giant red light to bet on if not a reason to bet on the opposition. Washington started this game without both starting tackles and their starting center. In a situation like that you just can’t bet on that team unless you know something about the backups. That is why this line went to 3 and I should have checked their status before betting. Reall dumb mistake.
The last couple of weeks have resulted in mostly middling results, some of that is due to luck or lack there of but also I think there have been some mistakes made and allowing myself to be swayed by some tough results. It’s funny how easy it is to fall into old bad habits but that is the point of this blog, to catch myself when that happens.
Week 7: 3-3
Game 1: Ind @ Cin Over41.5
Bet% Over 83% Under 17%
This game opened with one of the lowest totals of the week despite the fact that the Colts give up just under 31 points per game and have had their totals go over in 5 of 7 games. I like the Bengals to have a big game on offense this week but the -11 on spread is too rich so playing the over feels like the best bet.
NFL betting is 50% skill and preparation and 100% luck. At least that’s what it feels like in so many games where the ATS result seems to come down to 1 or 2 plays that can go either way. Gill Alexander @beatingthebook compares NFL betting to plinko the old Price is Right game and I’m not sure there has ever been a better analogy for NFL betting, my card this week certainly had some plinko finishes that lead to blah 3-3 result.
Week 7 Results: 3 Wins 3 Losses
What Went Right (more…)
If Week 6 taught us anything or reaffirmed anything it is that the NFL is a week to week league. Say that 5 times to yourself like a mantra, “The NFL is a Week to Week League” last week we saw 2 double digit underdogs, Miami and the Giants, win games straight up. The Jets and 49ers just missed making it 4 big dogs winning straight up. We saw undefeated KC lose their first game at home to the Steelers who were blown out at home the previous week by the Jags. Like I said the NFL is a week to week league.
It’s the 20th anniversary of The Firm. Crazy.
Week 6: 3-2
Game 1: Bal @ Min Under 39.5
Bet% Over 41% Under 59%
Betting unders on games where the total is under 40 seems very tough to pull the trigger on and for me I usually stay off those games but I went back and looked at totals that closed 40.5 and lower this season and unders went 9-6 in those 15 games.
I’m not sure there is an offense that looks more anaemic than the Ravens do, they are 26th in DVOA on offense, 31st in passer rating, 31st in yards per pass attempt and 31st in explosive plays. Last week the Ravens scored 24 but 14 of them came from special teams TDs. Week 5 was their best offensive game vs the Raiders who are 28th in defense and even in that game they needed a defensive TD. (more…)
Week 6 was a huge week for underdogs with 11 dogs covering the number and 9 of them winning straight up, including 2 double digit dogs, NYG and Mia. We did get back to a winning week but when you see a week with that many dogs cashing you want a bigger week than 3-2 but obviously much better than last week.
Week 6 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses
Week 5 was a tough one and a good reminder that when handicapping we are trying to predict the most likely game scripts and results but we are always vulnerable to randomness. So for me the teaser loss last week is the one that really hurts. I should have trusted my cap and played Panthers straight, over the long term having a week like that go 2-3 rather than 1-4 makes a big difference. If the process is right we can’t let results impact us too much and got to keep firing.
Week 5: 1-4
Game 1: Cle +10 @ Hou
Bet%: Cle 40% Hou%
This feels like the perfect week to be on Cleveland and also the perfect week to fade Houston, add those together and I think there is a legitimate shot for the Browns to pull out a big upset and get their 1st win. Whether they do or not 10 points here is great value. (more…)
I knew our luck would run out at some point but even knowing that you always hope when it does it doesn’t go quite as bad as our week 5 did. Week 5 was rough, even the one win I had to sweat out but honestly outside of the Philly- Cardinals game the others I think all were good plays and things really just went sideways. It happens and when it does it hurts.
Week 5 Results: 1 Win 4 Losses
With 4 weeks of games in the books this is when I start digging a lot more into the numbers. We know every year that we see teams who look like contenders in the first 4 weeks fall off and I’m sure that will happen again but I definitely see some teams that are riding luck vs teams that seem to have genuinely improved and are deserving of their hot starts. It’s time to start trusting the math.
Last Week: 4-2
Game 1: Buf @ Cin -3
Bet% Buf 55% Cin 45% (more…)
We are through the first quarter of the year and have 4 straight winning weeks in a row.
Winning in the NFL is hard, you can do all the right things, be on the right side and as we saw on Monday Night Football weird things can happen and it all goes up in smoke. That’s why runs like the one we are on to start the year really should be enjoyed because they really are rare and we know that a 0-4 or 1-3 week is always waiting around the corner.
Week 4 Results: 4 Wins 2 Losses