Week 5 Review: 1-4

I knew our luck would run out at some point but even knowing that you always hope when it does it doesn’t go quite as bad as our week 5 did.  Week 5 was rough, even the one win I had to sweat out but honestly outside of the Philly- Cardinals game the others I think all were good plays and things really just went sideways. It happens and when it does it hurts.

Image result for sasha banks crying gif

2017: 15-10

Week 5 Results: 1 Win 4 Losses

Week 5 2017 results (more…)

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Week 5 Picks- Trusting Math

With 4 weeks of games in the books this is when I start digging a lot more into the numbers. We know every year that we see teams who look like contenders in the first 4 weeks fall off and I’m sure that will happen again but I definitely see some teams that are riding luck vs teams that seem to have genuinely improved and are deserving of their hot starts. It’s time to start trusting the math.

2017: 14-6

Last Week: 4-2

Game 1: Buf @ Cin -3

Bet% Buf 55% Cin 45% (more…)

Week 4 Review: 4-2

We are through the first quarter of the year and have 4 straight winning weeks in a row.

Image result for sasha banks gif

Winning in the NFL is hard, you can do all the right things, be on the right side and as we saw on Monday Night Football weird things can happen and it all goes up in smoke. That’s why runs like the one we are on to start the year really should be enjoyed because they really are rare and we know that a 0-4 or 1-3 week is always waiting around the corner.

2017: 14-6

Week 4 Results: 4 Wins 2 Losses

Week 4 review 2017 (more…)

Week 4 Picks: Contenders or Pretenders

Back Again. Last week we lost games on the Chargers and Seahawks and this week’s card begins with going back to both those teams. This really is make or break for these teams in terms of can they live up to the preseason expectations contenders for the playoffs or will they continue to disappoint and bring us closer to us branding them as pretenders. For Seattle and the Chargers I think we see big week 4 wins.

2017: 10-4

Last Week: 3-2

Game 1: Phi @ SD -2

Bet% Phi 58% SD 42%

Back to the Chargers well again. I keep telling myself they could have, nah should have won the first 2 games but of course they didn’t and now find themselves 0-3 in what is probably the most talented division in the league. Through 3 weeks we have 4 losses on the ledger and 2 of them have been the Chargers, if we don’t get a win it is going to be hard to back them again. (more…)

Week 3 Review: 3-2

Week 3 was another wining week but honestly it is week that left me with more regret than happiness. Most weeks you are happy taking 3 out of 5 but this was a week where I feel like I just left too much meat on the bone.

Both games that I had listed as ‘considering but not bet’ in Week 2 write up, the Jets and Sea-Ten under 1st half cashed. Beyond that, this was one of the best weeks for underdogs in recent memory, going 12-4 by my count and a week like that is one where smart bettors should do much better than I did this week. So even though it was a winning week was I happy?

 sasha banks GIF

2017: 10-4

Week 3 Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses

Week 3 review 2017 (more…)

WEEK 3 PICKS

It is the week of the home dogs with an amazing 11 home dogs and this definitely feels like a week where books are more than happy to take a lot of money on those short road favs. I am pretty sure that more of the home dogs will cover than not but you have to hope you are on the right ones.

Btw, Much love and respect to Colin Kaepernick, Lebron, Michael  Bennett, Malcolm Jenkins and all the real ones.

If you are more offended by protests of racism, inequality and injustice than the acts & existence of racism, inequality and injustice then you’re the problem #TakeAKnee

2016 Season: 56-40-3

2017: 7-2

Last Week: 4-1

GAME 1: Sea +2.5 @ Ten

Bet%: Sea 58% Ten 42% (more…)

Week 2 2017 Review: 4 – 1

When you start the 2017 season like a boss with back to back 1 loss weeks

In the grand scheme two winning weeks doesn’t guarantee anything but it is awful nice to start the year as a winner on back to back weeks and build a little bankroll as opposed to the opposite where you have to climb out of a hole. As the great Andy Reid always says, Any week you can win in the NFL is a good week.

2016 Season: 56-40-3

Week 1: 3-1

 Week 2 Results: 4 Wins 1 Loss (more…)

Week 2 Picks- Overreaction Week

Every year I post the thing same thing for week 2 and that is that it the week that has the most overreaction by bettors all season and therefore we should be able to find some good opportunities. We have seen 60 minutes of football and while that does provide us some information to form opinions it is important to understand the circumstances and be balanced in our week 2 opinions.

2016 Full Season: 56-40-3

Week 1 2017: 3-1

Game 1: Min @ Pit -5.5

Bet% Min 56% Pit 44%

This is my favourite type of game to bet week 2, 1 team (the Steelers) was a heavy favourite vs one of the worst teams from last year and did just enough to win while the other (Vikings) was extremely impressive on national TV vs a famous team.

(more…)

Week 1 2017 Review: 3-1

Always nice to start the season with a winning weekend. Week 1 offers a lot of value but it is easy to get caught expecting too much carryover from the previous season and I have to admit I was a little worried with the fact that our card was heavy on favorites.  Thankfully the wins came in and for the most part we didn’t need to sweat them out making week 1 a success.

2016 Full Season: 56-40-3

Week 1 2017: 3-1

Wk1 2017

What Went Right: (more…)

2017 Week 1 Picks

It is year 4 of GTC and we have had 3 straight years of winning seasons though last year was the worst record of the 3 after a bad run to close the year. The format of the blog will continue to be mostly the same with weekly picks going up usually Saturday Night and then the review post in the middle of the week. Last year we started with a perfect week 1, here’s hoping we can take it back for a similar start this year.

Previous 3 Seasons

2016 Regular Season: 53-37-3

2017 Playoffs: 3-3

2016-2017 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season) : 56 – 40- 3 or 53%

2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3

2016 NFL Playoffs including SB: 6-2

2015-16 NFL Season Overall (Playoffs and Reg Season): 63-37-3 or 63%

2014 Reg Season 60W-42L

2015 Playoffs & Superbowl 4-6

2014-2015 Total season 64-48 = 57%

Week 1 Picks

Game 1: Phi -1 @ Was

Bet % Phi 58%  Was 42%

This game opened with Was -3 which seems like the right opening number for any NFC East game but it has been basically unanimous that sharp money on the Eagles has moved this line, so why are they all on Eagles? (more…)