Week 3

Game 1 Was @ NYG -3

Bet% Was 31% NYG 69%

For the 3r week in a row I am backing the Giants, who have become a monday morning sports radio punching bag after blowing 2 4th Q leads vs the Cowboys and Falcons.

Beyond ” they are 2-0 and this is a must win game” which we will here all weekend there are other reasons I think NYG has a chance to win this game big. First off this is Washington and more importantly Kirk Cousin’s first road game, Was has played 2 very close games to open the season but both were at home. Cousins is a QB that is turnover prone, 20 Tds 21 Ints career plus 6 fumbles generally teams turn the ball over more on the road then at home and I do think in a short week, on the road we will see that from Cousins.

Washington has relied on the run game on offense through the first 2 weeks but on the flip side that appears to be the strength of the NYG defense as they have held the Cowboys and Falcons to 3.5 and 2.5 yards per att respectively. Stopping the run has also been the strength of the Washington defense but through the first 2 weeks the Giants have ot been able to get anything on the ground and have relied on the pass game, where they should have an advantage over the Washington secondary.

Finally, the Giants played Cousins and Washington last year in a game they won 45-14 and forced 4 Cousins interceptions so they should have a very good idea of how to attack him on defense. With all the injury troubles in Dallas and the chaos in Philly, the Giants know the division is wide open but going 0-3 and 0-2 in the division would probably be too large a hole to climb out of. In the first 2 weeks the Giants played Romo and Ryan, 2 of the most efficient QBs in the league , this week is a very different story.

Week 2 aka the week we all over react. We spend all off season ranking teams based on last season, analyzing off season moves and then after 60 minutes of football, for many those opinions completely change. Now in some cases week 1 may give some actual insight to how teams will look the rest of the way but for the most part I think it is important not to over react but because so many do we end up getting some great value in week 2.

Game 1:

Hou +3 @ Car

Bet% Hou 54% Car 46%

I bet against Car last week @ Jac and really outside of the turner from the Jags the game was very even. Meanwhile Houston played a much better team in KC and got down big early and never really managed to get back into the game. Coming into the season I expected the Car passing game to really have trouble. Car has very few passing options and a very shaky Off Line, last year they gave up sacks on 7.4% of drop backs which ranked 22nd and the line this year is expected to be worse. The strength of the Texans is, well of course JJ Watt who had 6 TFL last week but overall they play the pass very well, they were 6th last year in def passer rating but yeah JJ Watt vs the Car off line is a mistmatch.

I also think Car missing Luke Kuechly will greatly impact their defence in this game, he is not only their best player on defense but the quarterback of the defense. Last week Hou was able to rush for 4.7 yards/rush, admittedly its hard to take a lot out of the KC game because they fell behind by so much early but if they can run the ball with any success here they should be able to control this game.

Game 2: SF @ Pit -6

Bet % SF 38% Pit 62%

This is the first overreaction game of the week. A month ago most people had SF as a bottom 5 team in the league, now after an opening week win on MNF at home vs the Vikings, a game in which they were home dogs, everyone has changed their mind on the 49ers.

Last week SF was able to control the game completely on the ground running 39 times for 230 yards, because of this the fact that they only passed for  165 yards didn’t hurt them. One thing we know about the Steelers is that to beat them you have to score because they will, they have one of the best passing games in the league, 3rd last year in passer rating with 101.5 and leagues top receiver. While the 49ers new look defense had a very good game vs the Vikings, it’s not ebough for me to believe they can just pick up be the same type of defense they were last year without the likes of Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Aldon Smith.

Had the 49ers lost last week I believe this line would have been 7 -7.5 this week, having this young team go play on the road in a tough environment with the shortest week of any team after playing the late MNF game against Pit who has 3 extra days is also a big advantage.

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Week 1 is always a tough week to bet because we have zero actual football played to draw any conclusions from so either you bet on the teams perceived are better or bet against those perceptions. For me, Week 1 couldn’t have gone much better and starting off the season winning 5 of 6 is of course reason to celebrate.

Week 1: 5-1

Season ATS: 5-1

Week 1 Results.

What Went Right:

Basically everything.

Starting with Sea @ Stl, this game played out like basically each of the games these 2 teams have played the last 2 years in St. Louis with Rams D dominating the line of scrimmage. The 31 points scored by Seattle is a little misleading as they scored 14 of their points on a punt return and a fumble return,  The Rams Def line led by Donald dominated with 6 sacks, 7 TFL’s and 9 QB hits.

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Betting week 1 is difficult because we really do not have a real idea of who these teams are yet, we have last years results, we have an off season of additions and departures but so much Week 1  lines are based on perception or just plain hype. Here’s hoping we can take advantage of some of these.

Game 1 Sea @ Stl +4

Sea 61% Stl 39%

Seattle is clearly one of the favorites to win the Superbowl this year and I think they are probably going to finish the season as one of the best NFC teams.  In looking at the line I think the perception is that Seattle is every bit as good as they were at the end of last season even without Maxwell and Chancellor and the the Rams are the same also rans they were last year. I expect the Rams to take step ahead and have them finishing 2^nd in the division this year, Football Outsiders likes the Rams even more and have them projected as 4^th best defense and  5^th best team by DVOA.

While I think Seattle will end up being one of the top 2 NFC teams, I do not think this is a great spot for them to start the season, in 2 of the last 3 years the Rams have beat Seattle straight up at home and I think there is a chance they do it again today.

The Rams have one of the most dominant defensive fronts in the NFL and unlike last year they are healthy. Seattle traded their pro bowl C Max Unger for Jimmy Graham, which should help give Russell Wilson a great target in pass game but in game 1, I think Aaron Donald and that Rams front creates chaos in the Seattle backfield and stops that run game. In games Seattle has struggled to run the pass game is far less efficient and covering a FG plus on the road is going to be very difficult.

The Rams have played the Seahawks tough at home regardless of who they have had at QB, while Foles is far from a star he should be able to run the offense competently,

Game 2: Ten +3 @ TB

Bet% Ten 52 TB%

The #1 pick vs #2 in a game that should be full of hype has TB and Ten as basically a pick embut TB gets the 3 pts for being at home. There’s not a lot to say here besides 1 I don’t think the TB homefield is worh 3 pts, maybe a point but really this is a bet that what we saw in the pre-season n regards to the 2 QBs hold true here.

Mariotta in the pre-season seemed to adjust to the NFL speed and his new offense a lot smoother than Winston did, that says nothing to their long term prospects but simply that in game 1 I feel better backing Mariotta. Winston will also have the added difficulty of facing a Dick Lebau defense which I am positive he has never seen anything like in college as well as be missing his #1 target Evans. I think Titans get this game straight up.

Game 3: Ind @ Buf Under 46

Bet % Over 49 Under 51

I wanted to take the Bills side here all week but couldn’t pull the trigger and when I got up today the line had moved from +2.5 to a pick, the fact that this happened even though 73% of the bets are on the Colts clearly shows the sharps are on Buf.

I think taking the Under is still a bet on the Bills, specifically that their defense can stop Luck and his new look offense without having to count on Tyrod Taylor to play well.  I agree with most that think the Bills defense will be one of the absolute best in football, FO has them as projected #5 in DVOA and I think they finish even higher.

On offense the Bills have a running QB in Taylor, Shady Mccoy in his Bills debut and Greg Roman who uses as many different run formations as anyone as their OC. So if the Bills offense goes as planned it will mean the clock will keep moving and Luck will get fewer touches. I do like the Bills to have a great shot to win but either way I think it’s a low scoring close game.

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2014 Review

Before getting started on 2015, wanted to quickly recap the 2014 season

Reg Season 60W-42L

Playoffs 4-3

Superbowl 0-3

Total season 64-48 = 57%

Had a very good season and playoffs would have followed suit if for not the superbowl where I lost both bets on the final play of the 1^st half and then of course as all Seahawk fans will remember forever and ever on the last play of the game.

I will be going through last years results and write ups and periodically writing posts based on things I think will be applicable to this year periodically but for now I just wanted to wrap up the results.

All in all, a very good season, winning ATS in the NFL is not very easy so the fact that “theoretically” I made money is reason to celebrate.