Like Week 2, Week 3 looked like it had a chance to be me much better as the Ravens, led late in the 4th Q, the Car NO game was under mid way through the 4th and the Rams were within 1 score of the Steelers throughout the game but in the end all 3 of those games went the wrong way. Nonetheless, the overall record continues to look good and I wouldn’t dare be sour about a winning week in betting the NFL
Week 3: 4-3
Season ATS: 12-7
Week 3 Results
What Went Right
Kirk Cousins on the road was typical Kirk Cousins – In my write up I thought this was a spot where we would see Bad Kirk Cousins and with 2 Ints and a QBR of 39.7 that’s exactly what we got. As expected Wash was able to shut down the NYG run game but Eli more than made up for it in the passing game avg 8.7 yards per attempt and 2 TDs as the Giants go their 1st win of the season.
Eagles D and ST – I had both the Eagles and the under this week and both bets cashed on the strength of the Eagles defense holding the Jets to only 17 points and coming up with big plays in crucial moments with takeaways in this game. (more…)
It is amazing how many times this week we have heard games described as ‘must win’ for the 0-2 teams and while usually the term must win is over used, going 0-3 historically has been a death blow to teams hoping to make playoffs. Since 2007, 5 teams have made the playoffs after going 0-2 but if you change that to 0-3 only 5 teams in history have made the playoffs so clearly the road becomes very difficult. Now there is an important caveat in that usually teams that start 0-2 aren’t very good and not expected to make the playoffs anyways, which makes this year kind of unique as The Seahawks, Colts, Ravens and Eagles all were expected to be serious contenders this year but find themselves 0-2 and teetering on disaster.
The Ravens are the first 0-2 I am looking at this week as they play the 2-0 Bengals. Looking at the schedule this really is must win for the Ravens after they played a very tough opener in Denver, where they lost a 1 score game and then dropped a bad one in Oakland. Now after playing at home this week they have to go back on the road again, this time on a short week and play in Pittsburgh on TNF.
Looking at the first 2 weeks, Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing game has been performing far below their established levels from last season, the Ravens passer rating this season is 75.7 as compared to a rating of 91.last year and early on they have has issues with interceptions with 3, Flacco had 12 in all of 2014.
As for Cincy, they have been very good to start the season but I do think that Daulton has been playing a little above his ability, he has posted a passer rating of 120.3 so far while his career rating is 86. Coming into the season these were 2 very even teams by DVOA, 6th and 8th, but when you factor in home field and the discrepancy in how important this game is to the 2 teams I really like the Ravens in this spot to keep their season alive.
1)Impact of Injuries to Skill Positions Over Rated?
Week 3 once again seemed to make the case that injuries to skill positions are often over rated by the public. In Week 2 the Chiefs played without star RB Jamal Charles and star S Eric Berry, the announcement that Charles would miss the game on Sunday moved the line which had been bet down to +3.5 back to +5.5. The Chiefs not only covered the game but easily won the game straight up 34-14 and Charles’s replacement Knile Davis had 132 yards and a TD on 32 carries.