2019 Reg Season : 41-44-1
Superbowl LlV: KC Chiefs -1 vs SF 49ers
Sometimes it is hard to separate your personal feelings from your analytical brain, it is hard for those feelings to not cloud your more reasoned thoughts.
I love Andy Reid, his 14 years as the Eagles coach were the period I learned most about football, I lived and died with the results of those teams and even though they didn’t win the big one my feelings for those teams never changes. Andy Reid is my favorite coach of all time and outside of the Eagles being the SB 2 years ago, I have never wanted a team to win more than I do this Chiefs team because of Big Red.
On the field I don’t think there is much to pick from between these two teams and so I keep coming back to 2 things. The first is you are going to need TDs in this game, FGs will not be enough and for all the great thinks Kyle Shanahan has done with this offense the 49ers were 21st in Redzone TD percentage at 54.29%. The Chiefs were 13th in redzone scoring at 59% and of course those are season long numbers which include games missed by Mahomes or games in which he was well below 100%. If the Chiefs can get off the field giving up a few 3’s instead of 7’s I really like their chances here.
The 2nd thing that keeps coming up for me is the fact that you have the #1 QB on one team and a QB that is somewhere 15-20 on the other. This doesn’t mean that Garappolo can’t have a great game and out play Mahomes in a 1 game sample as Nick Foles did vs Tom Brady, but it is to say if they play 10 times you would think Mahomes has the better game 8 times.
There isn’t a lot to pick between these teams, the Superbowl side doesn’t usually provide a lot of value which is why so many professional bettors focus on props and the derivative markets. I like the Chiefs to win but no more than I would a random week 11 game. More than anything I will be watching as a fan, hoping Big Red finally gets his chip because nobody deserves it more.