Game 1: NO @ Car +3

Bet% NO 62 Car 38

Not a lot to write here but I think the wrong team is favored so we are getting a lot of value with the full 3 and Car at home. I was on the Saints last week, who were in a must win game at home on SNF with that great  crowd and home advantage.  Even though the score in the NO – GB game was 44-23 the game was played basically even except NO won the turnover battle 3-1 which swung the game big in their favor.  Now on an extra short week, playing SNF and travelling to Carolina a poor road team is favored in a divisional game in a stadium they have struggled.

The Saints troubles on the road since last year are striking, in 2013 they went 1-7 ATS, 3-5 SU in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs, this year, the Saints are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.  The Saints trouble’s in Carolina have also been striking as they are 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU in their last 6 games in Carolina.

As for the Panthers they are coming off of a tough loss in Seattle where they played the wounded Super Bowl champs and lost a close one.  They like the Saints are also a much better team at home winning 9 of their last 12 both ATS and SU.

Maybe the Saints buck recent history and play well on the road but I cannot see how they should be a 3 point fav in a place they have traditionally struggled and both teams are playing for the division lead.

Week 8: 4-2

Season ATS 29-18

After the first losing week of the season in week 7, I’m Back Baby!

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Game 6: GB @ NO-2

Bet% GB 67 NO 33

Interesting line in this game, opened NO -1 and has moved to -2 -2.5 depending on book even though majority of bets are on GB and we know SNF games are the most heavily bet games of the week so there has to be real money on Saints.

Saints have been disappointing but have had one of the best home fields in the league the last number of years, on a SNF in a crucial game for their playoff hopes and Halloween around the corner this should be a wild crowd in New Orleans. It should be noted that even though they are 2-4, in 3 of those 4 losses they led the game in the 4th quarter, including last week in Detroit when a Brees interception late cost them the win. If they can clean up their play calling in the 4th that should help them get a win here. I actually thought the saints performacne in Detroit last week was their best of the season on offense when you consider the quality of competition. The Lions are the number 1 DVOA defense, and the Saints were able to move the ball especially in the air and despite 2 turnovers and an injured Jimmy Graham score 23 in Detroit.

One of the key differences between these 2 teams has been turnovers, GB is first in the league in TO margin at +9 while NO is 29th at -7,if we get some normalization of these then NO should be able come up with the win.

Week 7 brought my first losing week due to a dumb pick in Jacksonville and a dumber pick in Seattle

Week 7: 2-4

Season ATS: 25-16

Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE

Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66

Score: NYJ 25 NE 27

Result: Win

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Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE

Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66

The Jets are losers of 5 straight but outside of the SD 31-0 loss have been competitive in all of the games. NE is coming off of 2 straight wins where they have looked impressive but were a 1 point home dog vs Cin and then only 2.5pt fav in Buf last week which has led to, I believe, an inflated line here at 10.

I think the recent blowouts on TNF also help inflate this line but in a few of those games we saw first year coaches (Min, TB, Was) vs established coaches. In this game we have 2 teams and coaches that know each other very well so there shouldn’t be an issue with preparation.

The Pats have covered the last 2 weeks but have traditionally struggled as a double digit favorite, they went 0-3 ATS last year in that spot including vs the Jets in week 15 when they were 10.5 favorites and won by a FG.  They also failed to cover their only time as a double digit favorite this year vs Oakland where they were  as 13.5 favorites in week 3.

Finally it has rained heavily all day in Foxborough, the total has dropped from 46 to 44 and line has dropped to 9.5 at a few sharper books. A sloppy field should help keep this game lower scoring and keep the Jets close throughout.

Host of my favorite  betting podcast, Gill Alexander @beatingthebook  on twitter, often describes NFL betting as basically a game of Plinko from The Price is Right.  If you had a bet on any of  NYJ/Den, GB/Mia, Wash/Ari, Jax/Ten games you know exactly what that means.

Week 6: 4-4

Season: 23-12

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Partly because of the type of games on this week’s docket and partly because I didn’t feel good about a lot of the numbers, this week I break out some teasers. God help me.

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Week 5: 4-2   Season ATS: 19-8

5 weeks in and no losing weeks so far. Oh Yeah!

Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal

Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%

Score: Hou 17 Dal 20 OT

Bet Result: Win

Note: Dallas outgained Houston 456 to 330 and ran 20 more plays but Houston was able to hold Dallas to 4.2 Yards per rush below their season avg and win the turnover battle 1-3.

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