Week 7 Picks

On Thursday Night Football I  took the New York Jets who covered the +10, on the same night I saw Nas performing Illmatic live in it’s entirety something I’ve been waiting for 20 years to see.  I also have the NY Giants this week and think they can win straight up.  Week 7 …..NY State of Mind

Game 2  NYG+6.5 @ Dal

Bet%NYG 45 Dal 55

This game is the ultimate bounceback / let down game.

The Giants come into this game off their wrst loss since the opener losing 27-0 the the Eagles on SNF. The Giants had won 3 straight games going into SNF and the line in that game opened at Giants +2.5 but closed at +1 indicating money was coming in on the Giants. A couple of thing to note in that game, one the Giants O line gt dominated by the Eagles D-line, the Eagles racked up a total of 25 Sacks+QB Hits+TFL in that game and Eli could just never get anything going. The other thing that happened in that game was at 14-0 Eagles manning had Cruz open in Endzone, Cruz suffered a horrible injury on that play and instead of a TD, Giant players saw their popular teammate writhing in pain. The Giants were never the same after that play.

The Cowboys are coming off the most impressive win of the season beating Seattle in Seattle as a 8.5 point under dog.  The Cowboys dominated that game, they ran 70 plays vs only 48 by Seattle, holding Seattle to 4.3 yards/play while putting up 5.7 themselves. That impressive performance by the Cowboys has lead to everyone this week moving them up into the SB Contender category, yet there remain some issues with this team especially on defense. Dallas is giving up 6.1 yards/play (29th), 5.1 yards/rush (31st) and maybe most importantly have been unable to generate QB pressure, through 6 games the Cowboys have 6 sacks (27th) so unlike last week Eli should have plenty of time ad room in the pocket.

the Dallas Run game is the best in the league to start the season and one of the reasons is health, as the dominant starting 5 lineman have not missed anytime but his week will be the first that is not the case. RT Doug Free will be out and there is some question about Tyron Smith who will probably play but may not be 100%.

The Giants were 2.5 pt dogs in Philly last week vs a divisional opponent that had 1 loss, this week they are 6.5 pt dogs in the same situation, are the Cowboys 4.5 pts better than the Eagles? I don’t think so. The look ahead line that was out last week was Dal-3.5, that is probably the right number, this is a major inflation due to last week’s results. I think Giants have shot to win straight up and will have some on the ML as well.

 

Game 3: NO @ Det Under 48

Bet% Over 39% Under 61%

2 weeks ago I loved the Buf/Det game going under but because I have struggled with totals previously I held off. last week I loved the Det/Min under but didn’t quite trust it so I used it in a teaser, it would of cashed easily on its own.  here we are 3 weeks in a row and I love a Det game going under. Detroit and New Orleans are both known as explosive offenses so we get an inflated total here. This line opened at 50.5 dropped to 48 and looks like it will keep dropping.

If you were to ask 10 NFl fans who the best defense in the NFL is how many would say Detroit? 1? maybe. But here we are 6 weeks in and the Lions have the #1 defense by DVOA, are first in yards per play against at 4.5, tied for first in yards per pass against at 5.7 andlead the league in sacks.  the Detroit front is the best in football and are dominating games. The perception of Detroit is that they are this explosive offense with Stafford and Calvin and the defense is ok but the truth is tha the defense has carried this team so far this year and Detroit games have gone under in 5 straight games. Add in that Calvin Johnson will once again be out this week and the Lions will rely heavily on J.Bell and R.Bush in run and short pass game so the clock should keep moving. While the Saints defense has given up a lot of points, the Lions minus Johnson have not shown the ability to score on any defense.

As for New Orleans, they haven’t been as efficient a pass offense this year as we have been used to averaging 7.1 yards per pass vs 7.6 last year.  Where they have improved is in the run game averaging 5.2 yards per rush vs 3.9 last year and with Mark Ingram coming back this week and the success of K. Alexander last week I expect a heavy run package for the Saints coming out of their bye week to help combat the ferocious Lions pass rush.  There is also a chance that Jimmy Graham will miss this game or at the very least not be 100%, Graham is the key to the Saints redzone and 3rd down success so his loss will definitely impact the Saints offense. Finally last season on the road, when the Saints offense was one of the best in the league, they scored more than 20 in only 2 of their 8 road games and scored 17 or fewer in 5 of them

Game 4: Cle -5.5 @ Jax

There is some risk in this game as the Jags have played competitive games the last 2 weeks, getting their first cover last week @ Ten.  For the Browns they are coming off of a big home win vs divisional rival Pittsburgh so their is a chance this game is a let down spot.

The reason I am going with this game is that I think the matchup will allow Cleveland to do what they do best, control the ball and then make big plays in the pass game.  Cleveland is 3rd in the league in yards per pass attempt with 7.9 yards per pass.  The Jags on the other hand are 28th in yards per attempt given up as teams are averaging 7.8 yards per pass against the Jags, so Cleveland should continue to get opportunities to make big plays in this game.

The other part of this matchup I really like for Cleveland is they are run first run 2nd team, the Browns are 2nd in the league in run play percentage at 51.09%, what that will do is keep the clock moving and limit the opportunities the Jags will get.  The Jags are last in the league in yards per play with 4.8 yards per play, they are also last in average redzone trips with 1.5 per game, so if Cleveland can shorten this game, keep the ball and make their splash plays in pass game I don’t see how Jacksonville keeps this within a TD.

Game 5: Sea-6 @ Stl

Bet% Sea82% Stl28%

This is very public play and the fact that line is dropping means that I am probably on the wrong side here but I believe that Seattle will be very motivated here and if they are then they should have no problem covering this spot. The main reason I think Seattle will be motivated extra this week isn’t the loss to Dallas, those games happen and I think they probably feel they didn’t play their best game or have their best game plan in that game so it’s not that big a deal.

The real  reason I think Seattle will be motivated is the Percy Harvin trade. The Harvin deal doesn’t make a lot of sense for purely football reasons, he is clearly the most talented receiver and while you can certainly argue he has not been worth the dollars paid by Seattle, the guaranteed money ends this year so they could of easily cut him after the season and not faced any financial/cap repercussions. There clearly were issues behind the scenes, there are some rumblings of him not getting along with teammates and being unhappy with this role in the offense.  I think the Seattle offense will come out in this game and be very motivated to show everyone that they do not need Harvin to win games and they get the perfect defense to do it against.

The Rams have spent significant draft picks building their defensive line but this season without the injured Chris Long they have exactly 1 sack and have created almost zero pressure on QB’s. This should give Wilson and the Hawks pass offense plenty of room to make big plays.  The Rams are also only 24th vs the run giving up 4.5 yards per attempt and after being strongly criticised last week for only getting Lynch 10 carries, we should see a heavy dose of the beast in this game.

The line drop certainly scares me but if I am right about Seattle wanting to prove they don’t need Harvin, coming off of a loss and knowing SF is playing well, Seattle should be motivated and if so this could be a blowout.

Game 6 Cin +3/+3.5 @ Ind

Bet% Cin 23 Ind 77%

*Note will wait till right before kick off hoping to get +3.5, will post number once I have bet

I have been wrong on the Bengals the last 2 weeks and seem to always be on the other side of the Colts and this game seems like it is and obvious Colts play but here we are.  The Bengals defense has been abysmal the last 2 weeks giving up 43 and 37 points in the 2 games, they are once again without AJ Green so it makes sense that 77% of bets are the Colts.

With all the issues the Bengals are having and the success the Colts and Andrew Luck  have had (5-1 ATS) why did this line open at 3? Would Colt backers not played 4 or 4.5? This to me feels like they are begging us to take Indy and for the 3rd straight week I am going to hope the Bengals we saw in the first 3 weeks are the Bengals we see this week.

Even with the last 2 games the Bengals are still the #5 DVOA team, they are 2nd in yards per play with 6.3 and yards per pass with 8.4.  On defense they are still 4th vs the pass giving up 5.8 yards per attempt, where they have struggled, as we have seen the last 2 weeks, is vs the run where they are 29th giving up 4.8 yards per attempt.  last week they got killed by Cam Newton and the read option, 2 weeks ago it was Steven Ridley.  The Bengals issues vs the run shouldn’t be as large a problem against the Colts as long as they insist on giving Trent Richardson 15-18 touches a game.

Luck has been as good as any QB in the league not named Rivers or Manning but the one issue we still see is interceptions, Luck has 7 interceptions in 6 games and the strength of the Bengals defense is their corners lead by Leon Hall, if the Bengals secondary can hold up, I think Bengals will win this game.

 

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