Week 7: TNF NYJ +10

Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE

Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66

The Jets are losers of 5 straight but outside of the SD 31-0 loss have been competitive in all of the games. NE is coming off of 2 straight wins where they have looked impressive but were a 1 point home dog vs Cin and then only 2.5pt fav in Buf last week which has led to, I believe, an inflated line here at 10.

I think the recent blowouts on TNF also help inflate this line but in a few of those games we saw first year coaches (Min, TB, Was) vs established coaches. In this game we have 2 teams and coaches that know each other very well so there shouldn’t be an issue with preparation.

The Pats have covered the last 2 weeks but have traditionally struggled as a double digit favorite, they went 0-3 ATS last year in that spot including vs the Jets in week 15 when they were 10.5 favorites and won by a FG.  They also failed to cover their only time as a double digit favorite this year vs Oakland where they were  as 13.5 favorites in week 3.

Finally it has rained heavily all day in Foxborough, the total has dropped from 46 to 44 and line has dropped to 9.5 at a few sharper books. A sloppy field should help keep this game lower scoring and keep the Jets close throughout.

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s