Week 6 Review

Host of my favorite  betting podcast, Gill Alexander @beatingthebook  on twitter, often describes NFL betting as basically a game of Plinko from The Price is Right.  If you had a bet on any of  NYJ/Den, GB/Mia, Wash/Ari, Jax/Ten games you know exactly what that means.

Week 6: 4-4

Season: 23-12

Plinko

Game 1: Chi @ Atl-3

Bet% Chi 47% Atl 53%

Score Chi 27 Atl 13

Result: Loss

Note: This was one of the biggest surprises for me, not that Atl lost, at -3 these are basically even teams on a neutral field , the surprise was that Atl couldn’t get anything on offense against the Bears defense at home. No RZ trips, 287 total yards and 1 offensive TD against a middling defense by the #3 ranked DVOA offense is just baffling.  I would expect them to bounce back but another poor game at home and I think we can treat the Falcons the same as last year.

Game 2: Car @ Cin-6.5

Bet% Car 37% Cin 63%

Score Car 37 Cin 37

Result: Loss

Note: 2 weeks in a row where the Cin defense has been handled, last week by NE and this week by the Cam Newton and the Panthers.  I thought even without AJ Green the Bengals would be able to run the ball and have success on offense which they did. What I didn’t expect  is that Carolina would be able to have this much success vs the Bengals Defense.  The Bengals D is struggling  against the run and also not generating any pass rush. Also Cam Neton is really really good.

Game 3: SF-3 @ Stl

Bet% SF 80 Stl 20

Score: SF 31 Stl 17

Result: Win

Note: Very public play but I think the game  went the way I envisioned. Rams got off to quick start with a big punt return which lead to a TD but SF was able to hold Davis to 4.6 yards/play and the 49ers ended up again with 30 carries and while they only avgd 3yards/rush it did open up the pass game where they picked up 9.8 yards/pass .  The Rams Pass rush was again non existent trhey are the only team with no sacks this season, will look to fade vs quality QB’s.

Game 4: GB @ Mia+3.5

Bet% GB 72% Mia 28

Score GB 27 Mia 24

Result : Win

Note: If you bet this game on Sunday this was a plinko game as the line on Sunday had dropped to 3. This was a game Miami probably should of won regadless of the what happened on the last drive as the Dolphins put up 6.3 yards/play  vs 4.7 by GB and scored TD’s on 3 of 4 RZ trips.  What kept GB in the game and allowed them to steal at the end on the Rodgers –Marino fake spike  was 3 Miami turnovers. Regardless, betting early and getting the extra half saved me from the push.

Game 5- 6Pt Teaser Det/Min under 49 & Cle &Pit over 40.5

Det/Min 17-3, Cle/Pit 31-10

Result: Win

Note: The Det/Min game I was dead right on, the Lions D once again dominated and their offense minus Calvin Johnson once again sputtered. As long as CJ is hurt, I will look at betting Det under. This game would of one easily without the tease.

In the Cle/Pit game I was half right as the Browns held up their end but Pittsburgh despite running 20 more plays than the Browns couldn’t score. Pittsburgh did not score a TD in there 3 RZ trips, and while they only had 1 official turover they also turned th ball over on downs twice on failed 4th down conversions.

Game 6: 6Pt Teaser Cin-1, SD-1

Car 37 Cin 37, Oak 28 SD 31

Result: Loss

Note: This is the first Plinko result for me. First off this was a really bad bet and I knew it very early on in the first game that I was on the wrong side.  Teasing 2 heavy public games is just not going to work long term and will need to stay away from these types of bets. That being said the Bengals had a 36 yard FG to win late and missed.

 

Game 7 Jax +4.5

Score Jax 14 Ten 16

Result: Win.

Note:  The Jags played well in the is game, they ran 20 more plays than the Titans, outgained them by 80 yards but for much of the game couldn’t convert their advantage to points partly due 2 tunovers vs 0 by Titans. This game was basically over late, Ten was up 16-7 and had the ball at midfield with 4:25 left in the game.  The Jags managed to get a 3 and out and then starting at their own 17 with 2:43 went all the way down the field and scored a TD to get the cover.  Plinko win!

Plinko win

Game 8 Wash +5.5

Score Was 20 Ari30

Result: Loss

Note: This was the toughest loss of the year for me, absolutely crushing. Wash outplayed the Cards in almost every category, they averaged 7.1 yards per play vs 4.7 for Ari for the game and should of one this game straight up.  Regardless of all the missed opportunities and turnovers early, with 0:29 left in the game Wash had the ball and were down 23-20 there was only one to lose this cover a fumble or interception returned for a TD, which as we know is very low probability.

Cousins

And the worst Plinko Loss I can remember

plinko lose

 

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