Big Week 15 last week going 4-1, still not sure how the Panthers managed to cash with almost zero offense but it happened and we will take it after a mostly down December. Hoping to finish with a flourish here and a big week from Saint Nick.
Week 14: 4-1
Game 1: Hou @ Phi -2
Bet% Hou 37% Phi 63%
This is a game where I am going against most of the smart money which normally doesn’t go well. As an Eagles fan I can say that the team and fans both seem rejuvenated after last week’s win and I think the Linc will be rocking. Eagles will be getting key pieces back on defense including DT Timmy Jernigan who has missed most of the year. The combo of Jernigan helping the Eagles run D, and Houston being without Lamar Miller means this game will be on the Houston Pass offense. Texans are dead last in adjusted sack rate and the strength of the Eagles defense is their defensive line, expect Cox and Bennett to have big games. I think Eagles will have success in pass game on offense and win this game by a TD. (more…)
Our late season struggles continued with a 2-2 week and in Week 15 it feels like the card is smaller and tighter than anyone I can remember. The Struggle is real.
Week 14: 2-2
Game 1: Sea @ SF +4
Bet% Sea 73% SF 27%
Missed the best of this as it opened +6 but still going to jump on SF here. Seattle is now locked into a Wildcard spot with no chance at winning division on a 4 game winning streak but it is how they are winning that feels unsustainable to me. Last week Seattle won with just 60 yards passing, 2 weeks in the first matchup between these teams, SF outgained Seattle 452 to 331 but lost turnover battle 3-0.
This is also one of the biggest liabilities for books with 75% of money on Seattle while the number has dropped. (more…)
EaglesI have had back to back losing weeks after going all year on a tear. Some of it was due to just regular randomness, we were in good position in a number of games like Detroit before having everything go wrong.
Week 13: 2-4
Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Dal
Bet% Phi 41% Dal 59%
I am an Eagles fan and have not felt like the Eagles were the right side most of the year because the offense has been out of sync and not looked anything like last years version all year. Last week was the first time I thought the offense was on rhythm, Wentz missed a couple of easy throws that could have made the day even more impressive but I thought it was Doug Pederson’s best day of play calling and the offensive line looked as good as they have all year. This is the season for the Eagles and I like the fact that they have recovered after their debacle in New Orleans and worked around their injuries in secondary.
Dallas has become a very popular pick after their big win over the Saints but that seems like a weird game that we can kind of write off from the Saints side. I think Dallas is a very good defense but I don’t believe the passing game is a top half group and the Eagles should be able to have success vs the the Dallas line in the pass rush. This game is all about Zeke and the Dallas run game, but Eagles were in similar situation 2 weeks ago with Barkley and Giants and had good game plan to minimize the damage. (more…)
Had a tough week last week as we got plinko’d on a couple of finishes most notable Carolina but that’s the way it goes and overall this is still a very good year. Some good value on the board this week to try to turn it around.
Week 12: 1-3
Game 1: LAR @ Det +10.5
Bet% LAR 76% Det 24%
This game is probably not going to be a lot of fun to watch as a Lions backer but the Rams have not been a good team at covering these large numbers and 10.5 on the road is a huge number. Coming off their bye and that huge MNF game the week before, I can certainly see a slow start and little rustiness here.
The Lions at home have wins vs the Patriots, Panthers and Packers and have been able to keep games close for the most part. Lions will certainly is Keryon Johnson but I expect them to still use the run game a lot and try to get some big plays with Kenny Golliday.