Had a tough week last week as we got plinko’d on a couple of finishes most notable Carolina but that’s the way it goes and overall this is still a very good year. Some good value on the board this week to try to turn it around.
Week 12: 1-3
Game 1: LAR @ Det +10.5
Bet% LAR 76% Det 24%
This game is probably not going to be a lot of fun to watch as a Lions backer but the Rams have not been a good team at covering these large numbers and 10.5 on the road is a huge number. Coming off their bye and that huge MNF game the week before, I can certainly see a slow start and little rustiness here.
The Lions at home have wins vs the Patriots, Panthers and Packers and have been able to keep games close for the most part. Lions will certainly is Keryon Johnson but I expect them to still use the run game a lot and try to get some big plays with Kenny Golliday.
Game 2: Bal @ Atl -2
Bet% Bal 34% Atl 66%
I did not get the best of the number here as the Ravens opened as the fav and there were pickems widely available early in the week. I still think this line provides value because I think getting Lamar Jackson after 2 wins has given the Ravens too much love here.
Jackson got to start his career with 2 straight home games vs 2 of the most struggling teams in the NFL in the Bengals and Raiders. o be fair the Falcons defense is 32nd in DVOA and 31st vs the run but their offense at home is one of the best and will put pressure on Jackson and Ravens to keep up. Playing the style that the Ravens are doesn’t leave a lot of margin, on the road I expect Jackson to have a tough game here with a couple of turnovers.
Game 3: Car -3 (-120) @ TB
Bet% Car 73% TB 27%
If the Panthers have any chance at the playoffs they need this game like blood. Panthers have lost 3 straight and honestly I think you can make the case that they deserved to win the last 2 and really should have if not for a play here, a missed cake there. I still think the Panthers are really good team and pretty complete on both sides of the ball.
The Bucs are coming off of a win but this is a team that can win if the offense goes nuts and that is really it. The defense is 28th in DVOA and 32nd vs the pass. The season is over and the QB’s have a high propensity to give the ball to the other team. Bucs have also been hit with the injury bug, they are now minus both Desean Jackson and OJ Howard so this is not quite the same offense we saw earlier in the season.
Game 4: NYJ +10.5 @ Ten
Bet% NYJ 45% Ten 55%
There is not a lot of analysis for this pick beyond I do’t think the Titans deserve to be 10.5 point favorites over anyone. This team is a team that has lost their last 2 and lost in Buf straight up as a TD favorite.
Game 5: SD @ Pit -3
Bet% SD 40% Pit 60%
I like this spot for the Steelers, they are coming off a bad loss against the Broncos and with this game being flexed into the SNF game I think we see them come out and play very strong.
Chargers rank higher than the Steelers in DVOA (#4 vs #7) but the loss of Melvin Gordon is a big one and I think he has been the key to their #3 offense. The Chargers are #1 in running offense and obviously Gordon is the biggest reason for that, Eckler is a nice back but much more of a pass catcher than a runner between tackles and that will impact their ability to run play action and their effectiveness in the redzone.
Game 6: SF @ Sea -9.5
Bet% SF 30% Sea 70%
Late add, adding Sea -9.5. Nick Mullins on the road in maybe the toughest road stadium in the league has my taking the giant number here. Seattle is coming off of a tough stretch that saw them play the Chargers, Rams, Packers and Panthers so there is definitely some fear of a let down here but I think with Richard Sherman coming back there should be enough juice to get them over that.