Finally had a nice break out week after eking out plus weeks the last couple though my luck in Teasers continues to elude even though I am getting great CLV on those numbers.
Week 11: 4-1
Game 1: Atl -1 @ Mia: The Falcons are last via DVOA despite having 4 wins but I think you can see a distinct split in their season. When Atlanta plays top end teams they get blown out, see TB, Dallas, NE when the play the middle they lose close games but when they play the bottom they win. Falcons have wins over Miami, NY Jets and the Giants and I see this game similar to those, I can see Atlanta winning this one pretty easily.
Game 2: Car -2 @ Mia: I regret not fading the Panthers last week, the Cam hype had gotten out of control and Was as definitely the right side. That being said Cam was fine and definitely lifts this offense from the floor Darnold had them at. By DVOA Panthers have a decent edge here 19 vs 27 and I think the Panthers as currently constructed are probably a little better than that with a healthy defense and Cam at QB.
Game 3: Min +3.5 @ SF : I think the Vikings are one of the most undervalued teams in the league, I like both these teams and think they are pretty even, I don;’ give SF much of a home field advantage so getting the hook here is too good to pass up.
Game 4 : LAR -1 @ GB: This feels like a great spot for the Rams, coming off of a bye and 2 straight losses not only will Stafford be healthier but they should have a chance to incorporate OBJ more into the game. Meanwhile Rodgers is clearly hurt with a toe injury and the Packers have not been quite as good as their record indicates, by DVOA Rams are 6 while GB is 13. : Cle @ Bal -3: Have not bet this game yet but if it stays at 3 and Lamar is a go, this price is too cheap.
Game 5: Cle @ BAL -3 : The Browns are getting healthy at RB but the issue remains the health of the QB. At 3bthisbprice is too cheap and I am going tonride with Lamar.