Month: November 2021

Week 12 Picks 2021

Finally had a nice break out week after eking out plus weeks the last couple though my luck in Teasers continues to elude even though I am getting great CLV on those numbers.

Week 11: 4-1

2021: 35-33-1

Game 1: Atl -1 @ Mia: The Falcons are last via DVOA despite having 4 wins but I think you can see a distinct split in their season. When Atlanta plays top end teams they get blown out, see TB, Dallas, NE when the play the middle they lose close games but when they play the bottom they win. Falcons have wins over Miami, NY Jets and the Giants and I see this game similar to those, I can see Atlanta winning this one pretty easily.

Game 2: Car -2 @ Mia: I regret not fading the Panthers last week, the Cam hype had gotten out of control and Was as definitely the right side. That being said Cam was fine and definitely lifts this offense from the floor Darnold had them at. By DVOA Panthers have a decent edge here 19 vs 27 and I think the Panthers as currently constructed are probably a little better than that with a healthy defense and Cam at QB.

Game 3: Min +3.5 @ SF : I think the Vikings are one of the most undervalued teams in the league, I like both these teams and think they are pretty even, I don;’ give SF much of a home field advantage so getting the hook here is too good to pass up.

Game 4 : LAR -1 @ GB: This feels like a great spot for the Rams, coming off of a bye and 2 straight losses not only will Stafford be healthier but they should have a chance to incorporate OBJ more into the game. Meanwhile Rodgers is clearly hurt with a toe injury and the Packers have not been quite as good as their record indicates, by DVOA Rams are 6 while GB is 13. : Cle @ Bal -3: Have not bet this game yet but if it stays at 3 and Lamar is a go, this price is too cheap.

Game 5: Cle @ BAL -3 : The Browns are getting healthy at RB but the issue remains the health of the QB. At 3bthisbprice is too cheap and I am going tonride with Lamar.

Week 11 Picks 2021

Last week could have been so much bigger as we went 5-1 on sides but the Teasers were a killer (0-3). Still, stacking winning weeks together again finally and I know a big week is coming.

Week 10: 5-4

2021: 31-32-1

Game 1: Ind +7.5 @ Buf : Buffalo is the #1 defense by DVOA but I don’t think we have seen them challenged by a great run offense besides the Titans who had a field day. This is the healthiest the COlts have been on the offensive line and I think they stay close in this game.

Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ten: Titans are the hottest team in the league winning 6 in a row and the last 5 were all high profile games against the likes of the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, Colts and Saints. This definitely feels like a game the Titans take a deep breath and with their injuries at RB and WR I think it is a big task for them to cover a number this big.

Game 3: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: GB @ Min +8 and Ari @ Sea +8.5

Back to the Wong Teaser taking both the Vikings and Seahawks through the 3 and 7. The Vikings and Packers are basically evenly ranked in most effeciancy rankings despite the Packers having 4 more wins, in fact in DVOA Vikings are 9th while the 8 win Packers are 12th.

Seattle is coming off the worst performance of Russell Wilson’s career, first game back from injury has been a big deal for QBs this year and in this game we are likely to get that situation with Kyler Murray. If Murray ends up missing then this is a really great bet as we are likely to get 3-4 more points of value.

Game 4- Ari – Sea Under 24 First Half

Game 5- Ari- Sea Under 48

Taking the under on the Seattle- Arizona game under both for first half and full game. If Kyler Murray plays this will be his first game back from injury in 3 weeks, Hopkins is also expected to miss this game and I would expect them to get off to a slow start. While I like Seattle to win this game between Russ still getting back to form and the Seahawks likely to try to run a lot in his game I expect it to stay in the low 40’s. If Murray ends up missing this total will probably drop 3-4 points by gametime.

Week 10 Picks 2021

Finally got back and had a winning week though it looked like it was going to be a much better day during the morning but still felt good to be back in the winning vibe.

Week 8: 4-3

2021: 26-28-1

Game 1: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Cle +8.5

Game 2: 2 team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Phi +8.5

The first 2 bets of the week both have the Ravens in a teaser one with the Broncos and one with the Eagles. Baltimore is going to be as healthy in this game as they have been all year meanwhile the Dolphins don’t know which QB will be starting for them. Not only do we get the full value of the Stanford Wong teaser taking Baltimore through the 7 and 3 but by having the game go on Thursday we get the opportunity to use the 2nd legs of the teasers together on Sunday if the Ravens don’t cover.

Both the Browns and Eagles are ranked higher in DVOA than their opponents so the ability to tease them up through the 3 and 7 is very attractive here and I think there is a good chance both win straight up and I will be using them in a ML parlay.

Game 3: 2 Team 6 point teaser: Cle +8.5 & Phi +8: The Baltimore loss killed both of the open teasers and started the week 0-2. Using Browns and Eagles to try to see if one Wong teaser can get through

Game 4: Det +7 @ Pit: With Rothlisberger out this feels like one of the last big attempts for the Lions t try to get their first win, I am taking them +7 and on the ML.

Game 5: Car +10.5 @ Ari : Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are both expected to miss this game and I think we are likely to see a much more difficult time for this offense this week vs last. The Panthers defense is #6 DVOA, this depleted Arizona offense minus the starting QB, WR and RB is going to be a matchup that that I think the Panthers will have success against. On offense a second straight week of CMC and change at QB which can’t be worse that Darnold I think this is a great spot for Carolina to play well.

Game 6: Sea +4 @ GB : Obviously a difficult game to feel great about with 1 QB coming back from injury and another coming back from Covid. In the end I think getting Seattle who despite missing Wilson the last month is still higher in DVOA than the Packers 13 to 15 and this is a game the Seahawks absolutely need to get back into playoff run so getting 4 here is worth the shot

Game 7: NO +3 @ Ten – Adding the Saints on Sunday morning, think this is just selling Titans at the top, they are due for some regression and playing maybe the best defense in the league.

Game 8: KC -2.5 @ LV : going to take the Chiefs here. If we are going just by the first 8 weeks of this season the Chiefs prob don’t deserve to be favored but I think the offense is going to figure this out eventually and if you give me a chance to back them under a FG I’m going to take it.

Game 9: LAR @ SF +4 : this feels like one ofnthe biggest betting splits of the week. +80% bets are the Rams yet the line has stayed at 4 Nd at sharper spots been down to 3.5 most of week. Rams will have to adjust to losing Robert Woods and incorporating OBJ in which I think will impact their rythem on offense. 49ers have been really bad the last month and this game feels like a bit if a last stand.

Week 9 Picks 2021

The struggle continued in week 8 and after a fantastic September the last 2 weeks have seen us give back all the gains from the first 5 weeks. These are definitely the weeks you want to run and hide but we are back and I do like this card.

Week 8: 1-5

2021: 22-25-1

Game 1: Buf -14 @ Jax : I can’t even think of a time I have bet a 14 point favorite but this we are in a tie where the difference of the haves and have nots and here we have the Jags who are capable of getting beat by 2TDs plus as they have 2 of the last 3 weeks. This week Jags are missing James Robinson who has been the most consistent offensive weapon the Jags have, this is a game the Bills could win by 20 even if they play poorly.

Game 2: Hou +6.5 @ Mia: Miami is a 1 win team that is almost a TD fav here, I bet this before we knew that Tyrod Taylor was back but it did seem likely and I didn’t think this line was going up. Even at the 5 I would take the Texans, Miami is 27th in DVOA and does not deserve to be a favorite of that size vs anyone.

Game 3: 2 Team 6 Pt Teaser : Browns +8.5 & Rams -1.5: Classic Wong teaser, at this point I think I will only bet teasers when I have games that fit that criteria, going through the 7 and 3 and we have that here on both sides. I like the Browns , think with the OBJ news they will have a an uptick in performance, the Browns are still a top 10 team by DVOA while the Bengals are 21st. The Rams get the Titans in their first game minus Derek Henry at home, we get them here below a TD.

Game 4 : Atl +6 @ New Orleans : I can’t imagine that the Falcons are going to be a team that many are going to want to back them but asking the Saints to cover a number this large with the 20th ranked offense by DVOA up to this point and now with Trevor Simien at QB seems like too much.

Game 5: LAC -1.5 @ Phi: The Chargers and Eagles are back to back in DVOA but I think the Chargers are still a much better team, Eagles have looked great in their wins vs the Falcon’s and Lions and looked ok in win against the Panthers but in the games where they have played against offenses with quality QBs the defense has been rendered overwhelmed. With LA we get the better QB, better offense and better coach.

Game 6: NE @ Car Under 42: Adding this game on Sunday Morning, Panthers will be playing a very banged up Sam Darnald at QB, McCafrey also expected to return and be on a play count, I don’t see either play near q00% and Pats should be able to contain a very struggling defense. I also think the Panthers defense is getting healthy, Stephon Gilmore is back and think they get a lot of pressure on the rookie QB.

Game 7: Chi +6.5 @ Pit: Have not bet yet still hoping we see a 7 show up even at -120 by Monday but plan to be on the Bears