The struggle continued in week 8 and after a fantastic September the last 2 weeks have seen us give back all the gains from the first 5 weeks. These are definitely the weeks you want to run and hide but we are back and I do like this card.
Week 8: 1-5
Game 1: Buf -14 @ Jax : I can’t even think of a time I have bet a 14 point favorite but this we are in a tie where the difference of the haves and have nots and here we have the Jags who are capable of getting beat by 2TDs plus as they have 2 of the last 3 weeks. This week Jags are missing James Robinson who has been the most consistent offensive weapon the Jags have, this is a game the Bills could win by 20 even if they play poorly.
Game 2: Hou +6.5 @ Mia: Miami is a 1 win team that is almost a TD fav here, I bet this before we knew that Tyrod Taylor was back but it did seem likely and I didn’t think this line was going up. Even at the 5 I would take the Texans, Miami is 27th in DVOA and does not deserve to be a favorite of that size vs anyone.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 Pt Teaser : Browns +8.5 & Rams -1.5: Classic Wong teaser, at this point I think I will only bet teasers when I have games that fit that criteria, going through the 7 and 3 and we have that here on both sides. I like the Browns , think with the OBJ news they will have a an uptick in performance, the Browns are still a top 10 team by DVOA while the Bengals are 21st. The Rams get the Titans in their first game minus Derek Henry at home, we get them here below a TD.
Game 4 : Atl +6 @ New Orleans : I can’t imagine that the Falcons are going to be a team that many are going to want to back them but asking the Saints to cover a number this large with the 20th ranked offense by DVOA up to this point and now with Trevor Simien at QB seems like too much.
Game 5: LAC -1.5 @ Phi: The Chargers and Eagles are back to back in DVOA but I think the Chargers are still a much better team, Eagles have looked great in their wins vs the Falcon’s and Lions and looked ok in win against the Panthers but in the games where they have played against offenses with quality QBs the defense has been rendered overwhelmed. With LA we get the better QB, better offense and better coach.
Game 6: NE @ Car Under 42: Adding this game on Sunday Morning, Panthers will be playing a very banged up Sam Darnald at QB, McCafrey also expected to return and be on a play count, I don’t see either play near q00% and Pats should be able to contain a very struggling defense. I also think the Panthers defense is getting healthy, Stephon Gilmore is back and think they get a lot of pressure on the rookie QB.
Game 7: Chi +6.5 @ Pit: Have not bet yet still hoping we see a 7 show up even at -120 by Monday but plan to be on the Bears