Finally got back and had a winning week though it looked like it was going to be a much better day during the morning but still felt good to be back in the winning vibe.
Week 8: 4-3
Game 1: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Cle +8.5
Game 2: 2 team 6 Point Teaser: Bal -1.5 & Phi +8.5
The first 2 bets of the week both have the Ravens in a teaser one with the Broncos and one with the Eagles. Baltimore is going to be as healthy in this game as they have been all year meanwhile the Dolphins don’t know which QB will be starting for them. Not only do we get the full value of the Stanford Wong teaser taking Baltimore through the 7 and 3 but by having the game go on Thursday we get the opportunity to use the 2nd legs of the teasers together on Sunday if the Ravens don’t cover.
Both the Browns and Eagles are ranked higher in DVOA than their opponents so the ability to tease them up through the 3 and 7 is very attractive here and I think there is a good chance both win straight up and I will be using them in a ML parlay.
Game 3: 2 Team 6 point teaser: Cle +8.5 & Phi +8: The Baltimore loss killed both of the open teasers and started the week 0-2. Using Browns and Eagles to try to see if one Wong teaser can get through
Game 4: Det +7 @ Pit: With Rothlisberger out this feels like one of the last big attempts for the Lions t try to get their first win, I am taking them +7 and on the ML.
Game 5: Car +10.5 @ Ari : Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkins are both expected to miss this game and I think we are likely to see a much more difficult time for this offense this week vs last. The Panthers defense is #6 DVOA, this depleted Arizona offense minus the starting QB, WR and RB is going to be a matchup that that I think the Panthers will have success against. On offense a second straight week of CMC and change at QB which can’t be worse that Darnold I think this is a great spot for Carolina to play well.
Game 6: Sea +4 @ GB : Obviously a difficult game to feel great about with 1 QB coming back from injury and another coming back from Covid. In the end I think getting Seattle who despite missing Wilson the last month is still higher in DVOA than the Packers 13 to 15 and this is a game the Seahawks absolutely need to get back into playoff run so getting 4 here is worth the shot
Game 7: NO +3 @ Ten – Adding the Saints on Sunday morning, think this is just selling Titans at the top, they are due for some regression and playing maybe the best defense in the league.
Game 8: KC -2.5 @ LV : going to take the Chiefs here. If we are going just by the first 8 weeks of this season the Chiefs prob don’t deserve to be favored but I think the offense is going to figure this out eventually and if you give me a chance to back them under a FG I’m going to take it.
Game 9: LAR @ SF +4 : this feels like one ofnthe biggest betting splits of the week. +80% bets are the Rams yet the line has stayed at 4 Nd at sharper spots been down to 3.5 most of week. Rams will have to adjust to losing Robert Woods and incorporating OBJ in which I think will impact their rythem on offense. 49ers have been really bad the last month and this game feels like a bit if a last stand.