Wildcard Weekend 2-1
Reg Season ATS 60-42
I found this a tough weekend to handicap, Divisional weekend is my favorite football weekend of the year but this years games have such interesting matchups that for the most part I felt the lines were pretty good and whenever I lfelt I had a good read on one side, I would see something to make me like the other. Overall I do like 3 plays as of now including 2 totals.
Game 1 Bal @ NE Under 48
Bet % Over 63% Under 37%
Most of the week I liked Bal +7 but as the week went on and I read more and more people picking Bal as the team most likely to pull the upset I began wondering if maybe everyone, including me,was putting too much stock on the previous playoff games between the two teams. I also wondered that since it had been about 3 weeks since NE played a game they had to show up for maybe we were forgetting just how good they have been the 2nd half of the season.
In the end what I trust most about Baltimore is their defense, if they win this game it wil be because their pass rush will overwhelm the Patriots, similar to what we saw KC do on that MNF game. Ravens are the #6 DVOA defense overall, they are dominant vs the run giving up just 3.6 yards/rush 3rd best and should be able to make NE a one dimensional offense in this game. Where Baltimore has struggled is defending the deep passing game but NE doesn’t really have the type of speed to get behind them so I don’t see that being a major issue here.
On the flip side NE brings the 11th best DVOA defense to face the Ravens 9th ranked offense, they are 9th in opp passer rating and at home should be able to cause problems for Flacco. There are a couple of numbers I really like when betting unders, the first is yards per point against and here we have the 4th and 5th best teams by that metric, Bal gives up a point for every 18.1 yards while NE gives up a point for every 17.6. It should be mentioned that by that NE is #1 in yards per point on offense at 12.5 yards/pt which is one of the reasons I didn’t like Bal +7. The Other number I like is TD% against in the Redzone and both tehse teams hold offenses under 50%, Bal holds teams to TD’s 42% and NE does it 47.8%.
If Bal wins I thin their defense dominates the game and the offense does just enough and it comes under the total but I also think this is a game the defense could play well and still lost by double digits 24-13 or something. What I don;t see is both these offenses getting off and playing in the high 20’s.