Week 17- 2-3
Season ATS: 60-42
The regular season ended with a losing week of 2-3, it was a tough week in that both the wins were no doubters an in all of the losses we either had a couple of key plays or D/ST TDs go the wrong way. Adding to the frustration of the week, there were 4 other games I liked this week when deciding the card, 3 of which I had the right side. None the less, even though we had a rough December and finished with a losing week, we end the season just a fraction under 60% which is a pretty great year, so it’s a little like making the playoffs even though you lost your final game.
Game 1: Phi at NYG -1
Bet% Phi 41% NYG59
Score: Phi 34-NYG 26
I thought going in the that motivation for this game was very different for these 2 teams, the Eagles missed out on the playoffs last week and were on a 3 game losing streak, I didn’t think there was much reason for them to be up for the game. As for the Giants they were closing out the season on a high note playing their best football of the season. I was wrong on the Eagles as they came out and played a really competitive game.
This was a really even game, both teams ran around the same amount of plays Phi-72 NYG-78, the Giants outgained the Eagles 6.5 yards per play to 5.9 overall and 8.1 yards per att to 6.6 in the pass game. Eagles outgained the Giants on the ground 5.1/rush to 3.0.
The difference in this game came down to the redzone, where the Eagles were 2-4 to the Giants 1–3 and the big punt and return TD by the Eagles in the 3rd Q when the score was 17-16 Eagles. The Giants never led again after that play.
Game 2 NYJ +7 @ Mia
Bet% NYJ 43% Mia 57%
Score: NYJ 37 Mia 24
I liked the Jets for 2 reasons in this game, the largest being this was going to be Rex Ryan’s last game and the very popular coach would have his players give a great performance in hopes of sending him off with a win. I also thought they would be able to have success in the run game.
The run game for the Jets was only so so. NYJ only averaged 3.1 yards per rush but kept with it rushing 34 times, it was actually the Miami run game that dominated averaging 8.9 yards per rush (179 on 20 carries) but it should be noted Lamar Miller had 97 of those yards on 1 carry.
While it wasn’t in the run game, the Jets did play their best offensive game of the year, they had almost 500 yards of offense, Geno Smith had a perfect passer rating of 158.3, the Jets had 5 plays of 20 yards or more including a 74 yard TD pass to Decker which led to an amazing 13.9 yards per pass attempt.
Game 3. Ind @ Ten +7.5
bet% Ind 74% Ten 26%
Score: Ind 27 Ten 10
Not much to say about this game, I thought that Luck and the 1st team offense would play a half at most and because of that the Titans would have a shot not just keep it close but win the game outright. Matt Hasselback played the 2nd half for the Colts and went 13/19 for 155 yards and a TD. The Titans only managed a FG in the 2nd half and it turs out that playing the 2nd team was still too much for them. The Titans are just terrible.
Game 4 Buf +5.5 @ NE
Bet% Buf 36% NE 64%
Score: Buf 17 NE 9
The Patriots had nothing to play for in his game and it showed. Even with the first team in for the first half, the Pats didn’t show much or get much done, Brady went just 8/16 for 80 yards.
The Bills weren’t a lot better on offense in this game than the Pats, Bills averaged only 4.6 yards per play to 4.2 and only 3.2 yards per rush but they did go 2-2 in the redzone and by taking the lead early they were able to grind out a pretty easy win.
Game 5: Stl +13 @ Sea
Bet% Stl 38% Sea 62%
Score: Stl 6 Sea 20
Rams had been playing terrific defense the last 6 weeks of the season and I thought they performed well in this game giving up only 13 points to the Seattle offense. The Rams actually led 6-0 at half but they just couldn’t do anything on offense averaging only 4.1 yards per rush and going 0-2 in the redzone.
The Deathblow in this game came in the 4th quarter when Rams started a drive with great field position at their own 43 down 13 and threw an interception for TD, Seattle is so difficult to score on that even with 20 points they can cover double digit spreads. In spots where you like a defensive team against them, you are probably better off betting against their offense and taking the under.